Tesla Model 3 wins in red hot market
The Swiss PEV market is up 82% in 2019, by registering 17.176 units, with the PEV share ending at a record 5,5%, with December sales going through the roof, to a record 3.584 units, up 172% YoY and an amazing 10% share!
Will we see this market hit a two-digit share in 2020?
With the needle already above 5% share, we start to see plugins on the top 10 of the overall market, with the Tesla Model 3 ending the year in #4, behind the leader Skoda Octavia, #2 VW Tiguan and #3 VW Golf, that itself has 9% of its sales coming from its BEV version.
The 2019 trophy winner Tesla Model 3 deliveries continue to pull the market up, with the sedan registering 5.024 registrations this year, with the Californian scoring 1.188 units last month, a new absolute record for a plugin, but this wasn't the only amazing result in December, the runner-up Renault Zoe registered a personal best 385 units (apparently, Switzerland was immune to the Netherlands black hole…), the Audi e-Tron scored a record 245 units, and even the veteran VW e-Golf was entitled to a record performance, by delivering 348 units, allowing it to jump 7 spots on the table, to...Seventh.
But the most unexpected performance were the 174 units of the Ford Explorer PHEV...
Wait? What?!?!? Is that even on sale?!?! - You might ask, well apparently it is in Switzerland, the giant SUV from Ford landed in the last month of the year with a bang, with the 174 units allowing it to jump immediately into the Top 20...Amazing, isn't?
But the great results didn't ended there, the #13 BMW 225xe A. Tourer ended the year witha record performance of 93 registrations, the #14 Mini Countryman PHEV had its best result (54 units) in 2 years, the Porsche Cayenne PHEV registered 94 units, allowing it to jump two positions, to #15, the #16 Volvo XC90 PHEV had its best score (46 units) in 18 months, the #18 Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins had a record 56 deliveries, the #20 Hyundai Ioniq Electric also had a record result (63 units), and even the #21 Mercedes EQC registered a best ever 53 units...
Basically, Swiss consumers were buying (and being delivered) everything that was available and had a plug...
In the manufacturers ranking, Switzerland is Tesla turf (35%), with BMW (10%) managing to beat Renault (10%) to 2nd place, by a measely 12 units, while Hyundai (7%) ended in the 4th position.
This market has pleased even more than the Netherlands.Two overviews in one day this has never happened.
ReplyDeleteThese are amazing results... Any idea what could have caused the December surge?
ReplyDeleteMain market grew by 27%.No more ideas.What do you think?
DeleteSales in Switzerland-34825 all cars,according to my data.14% share?
ReplyDeleteI made an estimate at the time of writing, as ACEA hadn't yet published the December numbers.
DeleteWill change the text to 10% share.
Surely one of the strongest organically growing markets.
ReplyDeleteFelt like in Zurich every car billboard was about electric and the market should further surge with more Skoda and VW lineups coming.
The TM 3 is probably too far ahead for any other model to catch it also in 2020
Its a fantastic market and it will stay in 2020.It seems to me that TM3 in the European market have is a problems.In Switzerland in particular.Many who can surpass TM3.
DeleteProblems? What are you talking about?
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DeleteI'm still waiting for you to bring up any actual problems you expect the Model 3 to face, particularly in Switzerland...
DeleteCompetition from all sides,loyal attitude to European manutactures,service availability,end of wow effect,completed pre-orders,need to sell at 450 per month(Zoe 385)even if Tesla leaves 5000.Yes,especially in Switzerland it will be difficult,but possible.
DeleteExpectation TY and other crossovers.
DeleteAs far as I can tell, there is no such thing as "loyal attitude to European manufacturers". There is often significant loyalty to *national* brands -- but beyond that, it doesn't matter much whether a foreign brand is from another European country, or from another continent.
Delete(And since Switzerland doesn't have national brands, brand origin is pretty much irrelevant there... Not a coincidence that other markets where Tesla is particularly strong include Netherlands and Norway, both of which don't have national brands either.)
As for "wow effect": you are clearly not following relevant forums. Almost everyone who gets a chance to drive a Model 3 says it's by far the most fun car they have ever experienced -- often including cars at *any* price level... The more people already have them, the more family members, neighbours, colleagues, and friends get a chance to get hooked as well.
@Antrik & the wow effect of the Tesla Model 3: I tried the Tesla Model 3 for a week in California, and while it is indeed a great car, possibly the best out there, it's not without its flaws, so i would understand if people bought other EVs.
DeleteNot everyone's priorities are the same.
Also, the greatest threat to the Model 3, the one that will make its sales dip, is said to land this year.
The Tesla Model Y will make the Model 3 dip in the US this year, then once it lands in Europe and China, it will do the same there.
If history with Model S vs. Model X is any indication, the introduction of Model Y shouldn't have too much impact on Model 3 sales...
DeleteWhat's more, Model 3 still seems to be seeing growing "organic" demand in most markets, since it's still fairly recent, and presumably also because it's so "viral"... I wouldn't be surprised if this ongoing growth actually masks any dip from Model Y introduction.
(Regarding "wow effect": of course there will always be people who prefer another model for one reason or other... My point however was that the "wow effect" isn't really fading for the Model 3 just because it's been on the market for a year.)
@antrik
DeleteI have a question for you.How many T3 will sell in 2020 in European in your opinion?
There are too many factors at play to give a reliable estimate... But I expect it to be *roughly* in the same ballpark as 2019.
DeleteAnother question:do you think this is normal in a growing market of 2 times?
DeleteWhile production facilities can provide sales>180k
DeleteYes, it's perfectly normal. Additional sales almost always come from new/refreshed models, not from existing ones.
DeleteTesla will see the next big boost in Europe when they introduce the Model Y -- and presumably an even bigger one with a smaller/more affordable model further down the line...
(Though opening the Berlin factory will somewhat disrupt that pattern, as lower prices and goodwill from local production will surely provide an extra boost even for existing models...)
That is,production capacities will not be fule utilized 100%,I hope in Tesla thinks differently.
DeleteWhat makes you think Tesla has production capacity to sell more than 180,000 Model 3 in Europe?...
DeleteBetween the Model 3 and Model Y, I doubt Tesla will have trouble utilising production capacity in 2020 (and beyond).
And *if* they do run into underutilisation at some point, *then* they might consider reducing prices. (Assuming reduced per-unit margins won't hurt more than underutilisation...)
Near 400000 Fremont.180k for USA and Canada,40k othefs
DeleteYes,at least,becouse T3 need to strive for this.
DeleteDon't forget China: only the base model is being produced locally now. In 2019 Tesla sold almost 30,000 Model 3 from Fremont in China -- the vast majority likely not the base model. (Since base model buyers were mostly waiting for the made-in-China one...)
DeleteI also expect somewhat better numbers from North America -- though that's admittedly not a very educated guess... It just appears that "organic" demand is still on the rise, since numbers kept up pretty well throughout 2019, even after reductions in subsidies.
BTW, while Tesla was originally talking about production of 10,000 Model 3 in Fremont per week (i.e. ~500,000 per year), they revised this down to 7,000 per week (~350,000 per year) more than a year ago, when they decided to accelerate the Shanghai timeline.
DeleteBy the end of 2019 they finally reached that 7,000 per week figure (just as announced with the revised goal), and it doesn't look like they intend to ramp further for the time being. The Q4 update letter talks about installed capacity of 400,000 for Model 3 and Model Y *combined*; to be increased to 500,000 by mid-year. It's pretty clear that the increases are coming entirely from Model Y, i.e. Model 3 Fremont capacity won't be going beyond that any time soon.
Between North America, China, and a bunch of other markets, I don't think there will be many more than some 100,000 Model 3 for Europe this year...
I doubt T3 repeat numbers 2019.Despite the fact that the market,is likely,to double.Its not a problem?
ReplyDeleteWhy wouldn't it repeat 2019 numbers? And why would market doubling be a "problem" for Tesla? Considering that even second place only saw a third the numbers of Model 3, which model exactly do you expect to surpass Model 3?...
DeleteDo you think that there is no problem when the market grow 2 times(there is little doubt about it) and you remain at the same level?(while production allows growth)
DeleteThere is no reason why competing models would see significant growth, but not the Model 3. Either growth comes only from newly introduced models, or *all* existing models get a further increase in sales. Either way, I don't see any existing or new model having a serious shot at catching up to the giant lead of the Model 3 in this market any time soon...
DeleteI want you to understand,I treat Tesla very well.
ReplyDeleteIs there no problems in USA?T3 on par with 2019?Free markets will end soon.
ReplyDeleteI see no serious problems in the US. Despite incentives being mostly gone for Tesla in the latter part of 2019, Model 3 orders kept coming in just fine -- surely that won't suddenly change in 2020...
Delete(US numbers for Model 3 might actually decline somewhat in 2020: but only because the accelerated production of Model Y means more people might get up-sold to that one...)
18*
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ReplyDeleteA clear lead from Tesla, with Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance at midway, while the remaining Top5 carmakers achieve sales in the range of 2000-1000 units.
ReplyDeleteFrom the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:
1st Tesla with 6055 vehicles
2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 3070 vehicles
3rd BMW Group with 1858 vehicles
4th Volkswagen Group with 1598 vehicles
5th Volvo Car with 1022 vehicles