China July 2017

The Song twins are here to rock the stage!

BYD Song is China’s Model Y

Some 44.700 new EV's started zooming the Chinese streets last month, the second best month ever, with the market growing at 37% regarding the same month last year and pulling the YTD count to over 227.000 units, up 40% YoY, while regarding overall stock, a milestone has been reached, with over one million plug-ins being registered in China, from 2009 until now, the first market to reach a seven-digit figure, representing 40% of all plug-car stock in the World (Around 2.6 millions).

As consequence of all this, the PEV market share grew once again, this time to 1.6%, beating last year record (1.45%), expect that as the year progresses and sales expand, the Chinese PEV market surpasses the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 4% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, and the remaining 1% divided by all other auto makers. Interestingly, the Buick Velite 5 (Thinly disguised Chinese Chevrolet Volt) was for the first time the best-selling foreign nameplate in China, with 382 units.

In July the much awaited BYD Song PHEV won its first best-selling award, with over 5.000 deliveries, beating both the Zhidou D2 EV and the BAIC EC-Series, while BYD itself has beaten for the second time in a row the Manufacturers all-time sales record, by registering 11.207 units, stepping up the pace and increasing the distance to the runner-up Beijing Auto.

Here’s July Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 

#1 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version (The BEV had 1.500 deliveries in July, its first full sales month), in only its third full sales month, it registered 5.069 units, the second best score ever for a BYD model, with the Tang record of 5.503 units (Back in December ’15) probably being beaten this summer. This is a disruptive model (Why? Plug-in SUV, 0-100kms/h in 4.9s, price tag of 41300 USD…), I believe the full potential of this version should be around 5-6.000 units/month, adding some 3-4.000 units from the BEV version, it should be enough to have the Song to the tune of 10.000 units/month, both versions counted. And these are 2017 targets, by 2018 BYD should have even more ambitious goals for it and new models to add to their lineup, but more on that below…

#2 – BAIC EC-Series: A consistent seller this year, the BAIC EC-Series, formerly known as EC180, sold 4.068 units in July, the little city EV seems to have found its natural sales level around 4.000 units per month, which is a bit disappointing, as this is a decent design, with competitive specs (20 kWh battery) and price (19.000€).Will it be enough to win the 2017 Best Seller award? Doubt it, but if so, it would be a first for BAIC and the first time since 2013 that a BYD wouldn’t win the trophy.

#3 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but continues to be delivered in large quantities (3.796 units in July), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max.speed, all this for some 16.000€.

 

#4 – Chery eQ EV: The funky Chery eQ sold 3.264 units in July, allowing it to stay in the Top 5, this is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs, for 22.000 Euro before incentives you get a decently equipped city car, with 22kWh battery, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed). Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EV's, as the VW e-Up! is pricey, the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, and the Smart Forfour ED…Well, it looks too goofy for my taste (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

#5 – BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues delivering decent performances, with 2.946 units being registered last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low key e5 actually has a lot going for it, spec-wise: 305 kms range from a 48 kWh battery and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230.000 Yuan (33.400$). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?

  

Yuan: BYD's next piece of the puzzle

  

Year-to-Date Ranking – Hear that? It’s the Song coming.

The big news were of course the rise and rise of the BYD Song PHEV, jumping four positions to #4, becoming at the same time the Best Selling SUV and PHEV in the ranking.

Expect in August the Song to surpass its e5 sibling and reach the podium, as for the pole position, the difference could be too big to cut short, but with BYD, you never know, right?

A reference for the Chery eQ, climbing two positions to #7, while the Changan Benni EV also did well, joining the Top 10 last month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (21%, up 2%) is cementing its position at the Iron Throne, distancing itself from the previous leader BAIC (17%), with Warp Speed now engaged, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition even further.

In Third Place we have Zhidou, with 10% share, but with SAIC now on its tail (9%, up 2%), it will be only a matter of time until the Shanghai-based manufacturer surpasses it, in its bid to become the Third of China’s “Big 3 PEV” club.

As a side note, if there were bets surrounding the Global Best Selling Manufacturer in 2017, I would go with BYD, yes, most are betting on Tesla, yes, Tesla is ahead by 7.000 units, but I would still bet of them, not only because of the Song twins, but in a couple of months, BYD will also launch the Yuan crossover (Think Opel Mokka/Buick Encore) in both BEV and PHEV versions, adding some precious thousands of units to the current ones.

Also, in 2018 the only company able to steal the show from Tesla will be…BYD. A new Tang and the Song MPV are scheduled for launch, adding even more volume to the company sales. I’m not saying it will, but it is the only company with enough pace to prevent Tesla from finally winning the Best Selling PEV Manufacturer trophy, something it has been pursuing without success since 2008.

Incidentally, it is the same number of years that the Boston Celtics have been without trophies.

Will both Tesla and the Celtics break the spell in 2018?

Pl	China	July	YTD	%
1	Zhidou D2 EV	3796	22489	10
2	BAIC EC-Series	4068	22007	10
3	BYD e5	2946	13772	6
4	BYD Song PHEV	5069	11907	5
5	SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV	1606	10811	5
6	JAC iEV6S	2078	10100	4
7	Chery eQ	3264	9869	4
8	Geely Emgrand EV	1715	9697	4
9	BYD Tang	977	8479	4
10	Changan Benni EV	1645	7709	3
11	JMC E100	1441	7577	3
12	Zotye E200	1281	7230	3
13	BAIC EU-Series	1123	6814	3
14	Tesla Model S   e)	160	5295	2
15	Zotye Cloud EV	1079	4766	2
16	Tesla Model X   e)	150	4664	2
17	BYD Qin EV300	145	4262	2
18	Horki 300E   e)	500	4199	3
19	JMC E200	257	3914	2
20	BAIC EX200	150	3727	2
	Others	11229	48684
	TOTAL	44679	227972