Tesla Model 3 firm in the lead
January registered some 2.700 plugins in Canada, up 38% YoY, with the 2019 PEV share rising to 2.2%.
After a weak year end, due to the focus on deliveries south of the border, the Model 3 is back on track in Canada, with the midsizer being responsible for one third of all plugin registrations this year.
On the other hand, the Nissan Leaf had a big tumble this month, dropping two positions, to 4th, with the 129 registrations made in February being the worst result in the Leaf 40 kWh career...The 62 kWh version is badly needed to pick up sales, Nissan.
Chevrolet had reasons to smile last month, with both models climbing positions, the Volt to #2 and the Bolt to #6, while the Honda Clarity PHEV joined the Top 10, thanks to 162 deliveries, its best result in the last 7 months.
Regarding the manufacturers podium, Tesla (41%) is head and shoulders above the competition, while Chevrolet (14%) is in Second Place, with Mitsubishi (8%) now in Third Place.
Tesla Model 3 & Others
Pl
|
Model
|
Feb.
Sales
|
1
|
Ford Fusion
|
1.027
|
2
|
Toyota Camry
|
920
|
3
|
Tesla Model 3
|
900
|
4
|
Honda Accord
|
605
|
5
|
Mercedes C-Class
|
537
|
Looking at the midsize vehicles general ranking, this time the Model 3 was 3rd, as the Toyota Camry managed to overcome it.
Looking into 2019, expect the Model 3 to continue running for the mainstream midsize category leadership, as the Premium midsize title seems to be already in the bag.
The Model 3 production that could barely satisfy demand in 1 market last year, has to service three markets this year. With the RHD markets and the SR outside the USA adding to the demand in the summer, I see the Model 3 getting longer waiting lists all over the world.
ReplyDeleteModel 3 might miss the #1 position in the mainstream midsize category because of supply constrained.
Supply constrained? Production will be at least 300k units this year and could be as high as 400k. I don't think it will be supply constrained anywhere in the world. This Q1 alone, extrapolating the data from the Bloomberg Tracker, will see at least 75k units... Then it will likely continue to slowly, but steadily, increase over the rest of the year.
DeleteThere is no supply constrain. There is a demand constrain. You should check how many Model 3s are laying around in parking lots throughout the US because nobody is buying them. thousands. Some believe over 10K and growing every day as long as Tesla is producing at the rate they are.
DeleteEU will be the same way. Many countries in the EU saw less than 1000 orders for the Model 3 according to the Model 3 tracker on 1/31. The total for the EU as of 1/30 was around 18,000. Sure this number has gone up by a few thousand since then but in almost 2 months of the order book being open only 18,000 people placed an order for a model 3. For comparison, the Leaf sold over 40K units in the EU last year. So even if Tesla doubled the number of orders they had on 1/31 they would still come in under what the Leaf did.
China is worse from what we are seeing. One report had only 5000 units in customs and that was 4 boats already arriving. Even if another 4 boats arrive with cargo that would be just another 5000?
This and what we are seeing Tesla doing is evidence that demand for all 3 of their models have plummeted. The Model Y reveal was a dud. It is just an fat Model 3 that is no where close to be considered a CUV or SUV and that does not come out for another 18 months while in the mean time other companies have BEV SUV/SUV in the market now or will be coming to market of the next 18 months.
We've been hearing this nonsense about Tesla's overflowing lots for nine months now... Yet much to the short sellers' chagrin, there was no excessive inventory left at the end of either Q3 or Q4 -- and there is no reason to believe there will be at the end of Q1. Yes, Tesla does temporarily store a bunch of cars for various reasons (mostly boiling down to logistics) -- but there is nothing wrong with that. It's still likely a small fraction of what traditional car makers have stored on dealer lots.
DeleteJust a few days ago, Tesla sent an e-mail asking employees to sign up for helping with deliveries, since they have 30,000(!) cars to deliver before the end of the quarter. They wouldn't need these sign-ups if nobody wanted to buy those cars. And more importantly, Tesla wouldn't have produced them in the first place: there is simply no rational reason to keep producing cars if they had no buyers for them.
The Model Y unveiling had been planned for a long time to happen around mid-March. It doesn't have anything to do with Model 3 demand. (Why would it?) And just because there were no big surprises, doesn't make it a dud. On the contrary: it's exactly what people wanted: essentially a Model 3 -- i.e. the best car money can buy -- but with some extra room and a rear hatch.
Got any links to back up any of these allegations that sound so damning? I haven’t seen anything about parking lots full of M3s laying round that nobody has ordered, but I have seen plenty of pictures of lots of M3s waiting to be shipped or having just been shipped.
DeleteJanuary registered... or February?
ReplyDeleteDisappointing sales for the Nissan Leaf 40kWh, the arrival of the new Leaf 62 kWh is considered as essential as ever!
ReplyDeleteYes, the 62 kWh version is essential for the Leaf to recover in North America.
DeleteCurious to know where these Model 3 figures are coming from? They do not show up in provincial Canadian registration data. Feb figures appear to be much lower.
ReplyDeleteIt is an estimate, that is why it has a e)
DeleteI think that for Canada market non-Tesla numbers are as actual as for US... Probably report them at least at quarter basis?
ReplyDeleteGood idea, thanks!
Delete