Tesla Model 3 is the new King (Norway Edition)
Despite the PHEV slump (-28%), BEVs (+105%) pushed plugins upwards (+30%) in February, to 5.889 units, leading to large BEV (41%) and PEV (53%) shares, but the really interesting news should happen next month, with the Tesla Model 3 deliveries going through the roof in March, expect an outlandish market share in the last month of the quarter (do i hear over 80% market share?), mostly thanks to the current Tesla Tide.
In this context, we should see Norway get some 70% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 90%.
The fuels mix is showing BEVs well above everyone else (41%), while every other fuel (gasoline, diesel, PHEVs and HEVs) are suffering two-digit sales drops. So, this is what disruption looks like...
...it looks like BEVs sucking sales from everyone else, like if it was a black hole.
Looking at last month Top Sellers, one can say that the Tesla Model 3 started its reign as King of Norway, winning its first Best Seller of the Month award, with 791 units, being followed by the #2 VW e-Golf and the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that had 550 deliveries, and is currently the only plug-in hybrid selling in significant volumes. Maybe because it is one of the few PHEVs that does not have a strong direct competitor on the BEV field?
(But beware Mitsubishi, the Tesla Model Y is coming...So hurry up with the BEV Outlander, Mitsu)
Outside the podium, there were plenty of BEV "Young Turks" shining, with the two most relevant being the Hyundai Kona EV (414 units, new personal best) and the Jaguar i-Pace (391).
Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the VW e-Golf removing the Nissan Leaf from #1, although the German hatchback won't have the time to savour it for a long time, as the Tesla Model 3 tsunami will steal the Top Dog spot for the reamining of the year.
Elsewhere, a new wave of BEVs are stealing the show, besides the the soon-to-be-leader Tesla Model 3 shooting to #5, the Jaguar i-Pace jumped 6 spots to #8, while the Kia Niro EV joined the Top 20, in #15, and the Audi e-Tron did the same, in #18.
In the midst of the BEV takeover, one of the few PHEVs to escape the doom and gloom of its category was the Volvo XC90 PHEV, that was up three positions, to #19, thanks to 108 registrations. How do people say? The exception...
Interestingly, the 3 new additions to the ranking in February (Model 3, Niro EV and e-Tron), were all long range BEVs, which says a lot on where the market is going…
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen is the new leader (16%, down 1%), now being followed by the previous leader BMW (15%, down 3%), while Tesla (12%) is rapidly getting closer to the front of the race, as is prepares to run away from anyone else next month.
I guess only Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead in the future, but only in 2020, and assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.
Hard times for the competition…
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
With the PEV share at 53%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 7 BEVs in the Top 10, followed by only 1 PHEV (Mitsu Outlander PHEV, in #3), and 2 HEVs (Toyota's RAV4 and Yaris), but the telling story is that the Best Selling HEV was only #8.
Off-topic, Volkswagen, when will we see the Tiguan GTE land in European shores, and when will the T-Roc have a GTE version?
With the Best Selling HEV only #8, will we see a 100% plug-in Top 10 soon? Let's say...next month?
And now a warning for other brands with no short term plugin plans: The Top 7 PEV models were also each brands mainstream Best Seller in Norway, which is like saying: "Go PEV, or go home"
It is now already more than 4000 Tesla Model 3 registered in Norway in March!
ReplyDeleteTesla is really pushing it in Europe. The Netherlands also has almost 1500 registrations to date, probably hitting 2k before the 1st of april.
DeleteInteresting, how much would be delivered in April, both in EU and China. Tesla current shipped to delivery time is around 1 month or so, so there should be quite a lot of cars in transit on 1 April ...
DeleteMore than 5k now and expect 5500 new Tesla in march
Delete@y.v. March production was almost entirely US-bound (as expected) -- so don't expect many international deliveries in April... We are back to Tesla's usual pattern of almost all deliveries happening in the last weeks of each quarter.
DeletePlease fix table: Models breakdown by Fuel Source
ReplyDeleteHyundai Ioniq is absent there(302). T-Roc must go away.
Last snapshot of elbilstatik for February is here https://web.archive.org/web/20190228203722/https://elbilstatistikk.no/?sort=2 which shows Ioniq at 280, but I think that's BEV only (doesn't include PHEV or Hybrids in total), but that's still enough to displace the T-ROC and push the Yaris into 10th.
DeleteWhere does everyone source these numbers from? I'm only aware of elbilstatik :)
As Jose probably will point out for you is that the Ioniq comes with two different fuel sources, as both BEV and PHEV and that the number 302 has to be divided between those model variants and that none of the variants had more than 260 sales.
DeleteFixed, thanks.
Delete@Josh: It's not a public source ;-)
DeleteElbilstatistikk.no is only EVs, but it is both new cars and used cars imported to Norway.
DeleteThe real surprise for me is the Jaguar iPace and the Hyundai Kona.
ReplyDeleteTrue, but for different reasons, is good to know the Brit has demand for it, as for the Korean, we know demand is there, the ggod news is that Hyundai is finding enough batteries to deliver them in volume.
DeleteWhile the expected avalanche of Tesla Model 3 is underway, the current top3 most sold EVs are still the compact e-Golf, Leaf and i3, which shows battery size isn't everything. Is the 40-50kWh sized battery capable of charging at 100kW power levels in a compact sized vehicle, the sweet spot? Meanwhile, new stars are rising: Kona EV, i-Pace, Niro Ev, e-tron among others.
ReplyDeleteWith 3650 Model 3 registered in February, Tesla key 5 markets are Germany (959), Norway (791), Netherlands (472),
France (401) and Switzerland ?
Switzerland clocked 277 units last month.
Deletei3 is sub-compact AFAIK?
DeleteEither way, even in this class, battery size *is* all -- it's just that there are no alternatives available thus far... Once the 62 kWh Leaf e+ and especially the 48 - 82 kWh ID. hatchback arrive, anything lower will be pretty much gone in this class as well.
Tesla Models is however quickly losing ground. 20000 Models are registered in total, yet now only 150 Model S are newly registered. There seems to be significant cannibalization from Model3.
ReplyDeleteTesla X/S is not present(available) in a lot of countries (huge opportunity to grow). Also a lot of cars needed for showrooms and testdrives. More showrooms can significantly increase sales.
DeleteYes, currently the Model S is too expensive for what it is, compared with the Model 3.
Deletediesel market share?
ReplyDelete14%
DeleteI think the BEV share for March will be 65% and a PHEV share 6-7%. Remember that it will be sold ICEs as normal, so the total numbers of sold cars will be high.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, we will see a huge delivery burst for the Model 3 followed by minuscule deliveries afterwards. Congrats to Tesla for making Q1 not look as bad as Q2 will look like.
ReplyDeleteDefine minuscule...:)
DeleteI think quite an opposite: Tesla could not deliver all the M3 shipped in q1, and q2 sales would be surely better than in q1,(at least in China due to fixed logistics problems (production also have grown in March, but that would barely affect sales until April). Not sure about financial results, both in q1 and q2...
Delete...and in Q2 you will be back saying that they somehow made Q2, but Q3 now will be doomed for sure :-P
DeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteNorway will take the major share from all the Tesla Model 3 deliveries in Europe in 2019 (compared to the other countries in Europe). Possibly even more than 20%.
What do you think about that?
Cheers
I guess Norway will continue to be one of the hotbeds for the Tesla.
DeleteRegarding Outlander vs. Model Y, I'd say the ID. CROZZ will actually be a more direct competitor to the Outlander? And in Europe, it should arrive sooner, too...
ReplyDeleteThough either way, between these two, the Outlander is a goner for sure. And no, I don't think they will have a BEV variant shortly: last I heard, the next-gen Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi BEV platform won't be coming before 2021...
BTW, I don't see the 80% or even 90% PEV shares you keep throwing around happening this year. Growth in PEV share going forward will be more determined by decline in combustion car sales than by further increases in PEV sales... And people willing to consider an EV already *knew* Model 3 etc. are coming, thus holding back combustion car purchases. Winning over those who still buy combustion cars right now, will only happen when people start expecting further new models that aren't generally known thus far...
Do you not think there's any chance that one or two months this year hit 80%? It'll be interesting to see what the PEV share is for March!
DeleteWell, considering that IIRC one month in 2018 hit ~70%, I wouldn't say one month in 2019 hitting 80% is *entirely* impossible... However, AIUI that one month combustion cars were severely hampered by WLTP issues, which are mostly resolved now? Thus I don't expect seeing similar peaks this year.
DeleteAlso note that Jose suggested 80% for the entire year, and 90% in peak months... I just don't see a way anything close to that could happen already this year.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteThe Tesla Model S will enter the top 20 list of Norway within the next few months.
Tesla will have 3 EV models in the top 20 list of Norway within the next few months.
Cheers