Sunday, March 3, 2019

Tesla Model 3 35k & the rest. Now What?

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3

After digesting all the latest news regarding Tesla, namely the new Model 3 versions, the final balance was mostly good, but there was something for everyone: The amazingly awesome (35k Model 3, new Standard Plus version), the good (price drops around the range) and the concerning ones (Online only sales, store closures).

Let's start with the Amazingly Awesome:

-  The 35k Tesla Model 3 is finally here! After many delays and doubts, the car that made half a million buyers make a Model 3 reservation is finally here, and it has a few more features than expected, like  the glass roof, so now Tesla is now out of the "rich people toy" category, and into full-blown premium brand, hitting head on the BMW's and Mercedes prized bread 'n butter 3-Series and C-Class, as well as the most high end products of mainstream brands.

Before this expansion, the Model 3 versions only crushed competed against the most high end versions of the midsize Bimmers and Mercs, like the C300 (49k Euro) and upwards, leaving the juiciest part of the market left untounched for the established premium brands.

Now, with the Model 3 SR versions, said to be sold in Europe around 40k euro, even the cheapest version of the Merc C-Class, the C180 (41k euro), is being targeted, with either of the SR versions curshing the Mercedes, specs-wise.

The remaining Premium brands better get their midsize EVs developtment in the fast lane, or else...   

Now, the Good:

- The whole Tesla range had significant price drops, if this won't change much the edge of the high end Model 3 versions, that were already far more competitive than their ICE counterparts, both the Model S and X were in dire need of a price cut, as their prices still placed them in the "very rich people toy", along with Porsche and others, especially sice the 75D version was discontinued.

With the Model S now starting at 81k euro, the Model S price dropped significantly, making it really competitive against similar versions of the reamining pack, but it is still above the juiciest part of that market, as the cheapest Merc CLS starts at 69k euro. The Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series start even lower.

So, while the price reduction will help the Model S/X sales, it won't make the same impact in thier category, that the Model 3 is going to do in the midsize category. 

Finally, the Concerning:

- Tesla realized that the 35k Model 3 was not going to be profitable without some major strategy change, hence the full bet in online sales, with the subsequent closure of most stores.

And here could lie a problem. While for a boutique brand, like Porsche or Jaguar, that could be done without major harm to sales, if Tesla wants to go after BMW, Mercedes and the like, it will need a larger network of stores, but most importantly, a big network of Service Centers.

With Tesla closing a big number of its already small network of stores (compared with the Premium major players), and apparently not investing heavily in a fast expansion of Service Centers, how will Tesla manage servicing/delivering/etc of lets say, one million of vehicles in couple of years? Chaos could be the word to describe it.

Is Tesla right in going all in with on online sales? 


    

40 comments:

  1. No showroom here in Romania, no service, closest Tesla service point in the whole area is in Austria - bottom line - ordered the I-Pace as Jaguar is here with a network of dealers and after getting the car in february ( preorder in september ) - absolute no regret in my choice.
    BTW, same day i got my Jag, there were 3 more to be delivered after, will be interesting to see how many of them are registered in Romania from the start of the year.

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    1. I agree with what you said, Aurelian, Tesla's network is still too small to start closing down stores already.

      Eastern Europe is one of those proofs, people there have to do hundreds, if not thousands, of kms to Germany or Austria, just to have their cars serviced, and many prefer buying elsewhere because they are not willing to do those kinds of sacrífices.

      Anyway, good luck with your i-Pace, you have got yourself a looker, both inside and out.

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    2. Logic what you say. Thats the advantage other OEM's have as they have an existing sales and service network.
      The unfortunate fact that people in Eastern Europe have to face is, the total EV market is too small for Tesla to set up their network. Romania had 0.5% last time Jose reported about it. Poland stands at 0.2%. Consequently, the people who consider to buy a Tesla are probably better off in buying Jag, Renault, Hyundai or Audi.
      Sad but true

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  2. Finally, the real game begins and I am very curious to see who is still going to buy a Bolt of a Leaf if you get a M3 for 35K.
    About the closure of stores, I understand to close fancy showrooms on 5th Ave or Champs Elysees but why closing service centers? It is not reprehensible to operate service centers on a profitable level as long as you don't rip off clients in selling them needless maintenance or overpriced spare parts.
    So, make service centers profitable and open as many as needed for the flood of Tesla's coming into the market in the coming years

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    1. That's the current Tesla conundrum, everyone else will feel the heat from the 35k Model 3, question is, will Tesla be ready to deliver (and service) the upcoming orders wave?

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    2. They are *not* closing service centres -- on the contrary. They were pretty clear about that.

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  3. Jose,

    Customers in Europe will have to wait another six months before they will be allowed to place an order for the Standard Range Rear Wheel Drive Tesla Model 3. The first deliveries will happen in Q4 2019.

    Only customers in the US and Canada can already place their order.

    The total combined number of Tesla EV deliveries (Model S, Model X, Model 3) in the US in 2019 will be more than 250,000.

    What do you think about that?

    Cheers

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  4. I don't really think closing stores is a good thing, I got interested in EVs by test driving a Tesla Model S P85 and I guess it's the same for many other people out there.

    And we should not forget, most EV buyers are still first time EV buyers. So talking to someone, sitting in the car, or test driving it is important. And the stores placed in locations where lots of people come by really helped. I know many people in the EV community, that think that everyone knows everything about EVs. But I know many people outside the EV community, that don't even know how much range an EV has, or how fast you can charge them. So I still think the stores help to educate people.

    On the other hand it seems like Tesla really needs the price decreases and introduction of the base model 3, to keep demand up and sales people are the easiest way to cut cost in the short term. So it's a rock and a hard place situation. And I am not sure what I would do in their situation...

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    1. Some of the stores in high-traffic areas will be converted to galleries. So you can still ask all the questions -- just have to place the order yourself...

      (And apparently no test drives? They haven't been entirely clear about that...)

      PS. I still think this ReCapatcha crap is intolerable. It often takes several minutes; and to add insult to injury, it expires after a moment for no reason whatsoever -- so if I decide to give my comment some finishing touches, I have to go through all this crap AGAIN. Why am I supposed to give free labour to Google's self-driving efforts in order to post a comment?! It's not like they can't afford to pay people to do this work, like everyone else has to...

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  5. Nice post, Jose.

    Now the great offerings are there. People should just buy the cars.
    I think sales will be fine even with just a few galleries.
    Maybe a bit of advertising...
    Deliveries at home.
    7 day "test" period is there.
    Focus on improving service is very much there, according to Tesla's last post.
    Let's rejoice !!

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    1. Improving service will be critical for them, from now on.

      That's my concern, that servisse network might not be big enough to respond to the coming wave of customers.

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  6. Sadly no mention of RHD Model 3, looks like they have forgotten about this market.

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  7. What next is Tesla heading back to losing hundreds of millions a quarter trying to compete with other companies who can sell $35K or less BEV because they can make up the difference selling ICE cars.

    Like many have said, Tesla opening up orders for the SR Model 3 even though it will another 3 or 4 months before it is releases screams money grab and sales of the model 3 in the UE not being as hot as Tesla thought it would be. This also is supported by the fact that in 60 days Tesla has reduced the price of all models 3 times.

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    1. Servicing cars and the brand finances are the two question marks in this new era of Tesla.

      Let's see what happens.

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    2. Funny that VW admitted that not having a legacy business is actually an advantage for Tesla...

      And no, deliveries won't start only in three or four months. Just the usual FUD from detractors...

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  8. Tesla resp. Elon does strong, selfdetermined abd disruptive steps in and against the market. His competitors now have a larger task, no further waiting time to offer competitive EVs and ICEs. The EV community should use this special situation to explain and to support the rest of their families and neighbours to do their personal steps to e-mobilty: At the moment we do not only have an awesome and disruptive transition in the worldwide car market, but in the bus market, the market of e-bikes and e-scooters, too.

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  9. Tesla is competing in the US with one hand tied behind its back, as almost everybody else is entitled to the full tax deduction and Tesla's customers can only benefit of half of it for only another four months.

    For an administration that is supposed to be aiming at a manufacturing come back, the Trump administration is acting very stupidly, undercutting the national champion in a crucial industry.

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  10. At this point, I now feel Tesla strategy went wrong: Tesla had better keep building the roadster (paying royalties to Lotus for keep using their frame, albeit somewhat evolved) and then just by 2014 or 2015 come in with the Model S. The Model X is also a worrying product, not a proper SUV but a bloated high ride minivan. Now, the Model 3:
    fantastic pre-lunch marketing, hence near half-million reserves, but did people expected the features being offered now? 4 colours highly priced as option, almost all features standard (where is diferentiation??) and 1 bodyshell. Can we have a sunroof on a Model 3? Can we tow with a model 3? Can we have choices for interior colours and finish trims? Can we have exterior theme bumper/wheel packages? No, one size fits all that is, that pleases full no one or at least a certain few.
    Right, now it is very easy to point what might have went not so well, but it feels that Tesla traits are a lot along the lines, buy what is fresh now and forget about what you got (Tesla legacy product). Were are parts for repairs? Were are Service points with knowledgeable trained people to service roadsters and first generation Model S?
    Oh forget about that, OTA updates are so cool, check out release notes: tentative fix for what was released broken a few times before, automatic wipers anyone?
    I wish Tesla good luck, but competing head on in Europe with Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, Hyundai on price (Leaf, Zoe, MEB, Kona), among others, not taking into account their service network power, will expose them badly. I much prefer a 60kWh Leaf, that I can take in into several service shops nearby that wait for a Tesla call to take in the Model 3 for repairs after 6 months waiting for feedback. Better Tesla clean the house first.

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    1. I agree, the service is a crucial question for Tesla. How can they guarantee a good service to customers in the future? If they are not able to provide that, customers might turn away.
      The competition (Hyundai, VW, Renault etc. etc.) I don't see as a real threat for Tesla. The whole EV market is estimated to achieve a 25% share of new sales in apprx. 3-5 years. That is estimates by several experts and car companies themselves. That means, the EV segment grows 25 fold (or 2.500%) in the coming years. It is pretty unrealistic to believe that there is no space for the current market leader in a market that is growing in that scale in the near future.
      I stick to it, the only threat for Tesla comes from themselves in taking the wrong decisions.

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  11. I think that Tesla is still a young company with big finance problems and lot of debt. AFAIK Tesla need to pay back a big loan in March, and it is somehow linked to Tesla stock price. So, Tesla could not afford to show weak result(less sales than in Q4_18, or lower profit etc) in such an important quarter. Model Y launch seems to work on that too. 35k M3 start would attract cash, increase stock prices and even if overall strategy is wrong in long term, until the end of 2019 Tesla would still sell cars mostly to existing customers, and would be somewhat free from competition. In 2020 Tesla could start advertising, build mega-service network, open ultranew type of super-showrooms(with AI) etc. At first Tesla need to survive 2019 financially...

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    1. The $920 millions seems to have already been paid in March 2nd...

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  12. Honestly speaking, I was expecting completely different strategy from Tesla. The difference in price between 45k Midrange and 35k SR was so huge, and demand for MR and LR was fairly limited, so I expected Tesla to switch all production to 35k M3 production, new volume records and new round of production hell. But I was completely wrong, they just decided to make SR battery completely unattractive and virtually skip it's production. So, the production line would just continue to stamp MR with premium interior on comfort rate. Likely at cost of selling presumably most popular version (37k) quite close to its production price and earning money "on accessories" (like autopilot) and volume. That's not even an Apple-like strategy, it is Xiaomi...

    I also wonder how Panasonic energy division is going, 2k difference between 35k and 37k model translates into 125$/kWh. Is Panasonic making profit on GF1, or being screwed up by contract or alike...

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    1. That's the pricing strategy of literally every other mass-market car maker out there...

      How did you arrive at that cost figure? Gigafactory cell cost (not to be confused with pack cost) should be ~$100/kWh by now -- i.e. the extra cost of the cells in the SR+ variant should be less than $500. (There are other differences, though...)

      And yes, Panasonic should be making a profit now that production has ramped. They said so themselves.

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    2. I got it from an opposite equation. It was based on popular(?) assumption, that SR+ is software limited MR. SR M3 has 50kwh battery, SR+ has 62kwh battery). So, 2000$ upgrade translates into 500$ for interior and 1500$ for battery. 1500$/12kwh=125$ per kwh.

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    3. I was kinda suspecting that at first as well, considering how similar the performance specs are... However, upon closer consideration, it sounds rather doubtful. From the pricing and features, it's pretty clear that Tesla wants to direct customers to the SR+ instead of the SR. Why would they do that? The obvious reason would be better margins. However, even if the battery is really only ~5 kWh larger, along with the better interior, the difference in margin would be fairly slim. If the battery is actually 12 kWh larger (or in fact ~13 kWh, since the 50 kWh / 62 kWh figures are usable capacity, not nominal), I don't see any meaningful margin improvement at all...

      The other possibility is of course that it's only a temporary measure, until real SR production is sufficiently ramped. Not sure though that there is sufficient motivation for such a move...

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  13. How is a 40k euro car a 35k USD car? It's more like 45k USD.
    That's pretty far from promises... It should 31K Euros at most. 9000 Euros is a lot of money. You literally could buy a Toyota Aygo with this much money..

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    1. Remember, $35.000 in USA is the base price at which you have to add state and local sale taxes (very different in each States of USA:https://files.taxfoundation.org/20180212171639/LOST2018.png),toping 10% in some states.
      In Europe we also have different VAT in each country, at an average of 20%, so the price for a $35.000 american car will go like this: 31.000€ for base price (at actual change rate)+ 10% import taxes (so 34.000€) + 2.000€ for shipping (so 36.000€) + 20% VAT. So, it should be no less than than 43.000€ here in Europe...

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    2. Oh well, so it's PR 35k USD cost.... I'd say it's still firmly in the middle of "rich people toy" category.
      The Aygo I mentioned can be bought from 9656 USD (8516 Euros) around here with VAT...

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    3. Tesla is Premium, for cheaper, mainstream brands, the menace is coming from elsewhere (China).

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    4. Chinese makers are clearly a "menace" in the domestic Chinese market -- but it will be years before they will be able to break into other markets in any significant way. By then, most established global makers should have a full range of competitive EV offerings on dedicated platforms, thus closing the window of opportunity for new entrants...

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    5. @Jose Pontes
      They don't seem intent on living up to standards of quality and support in Europe/America/etc.
      Fingers crossed for a rumored sub 20k Honda fit. Though that's still double of the lower end of ICE cars from respectable brands.

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  14. I am not sure how the author missed this, but both in his February 28 blog post and the media call after teh 35k announcement Elon has repeatedly mentioned, that they will heavily focus on service, hire people there and expand the footprint. In fact on the Q4 conference call he said that their major priority is service operations.

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    1. I haven't missed it, what is said was: "and apparently not investing heavily in a fast expansion of Service Centers", the key word, is "apparently".

      I am aware what Elon said, my question mark is what Musk considers "heavy focus on service", if it is quadrupling the number of service centres in the next two years, then great, mission accomplished.

      But i doubt it, as it would mean a big investment, contrary to the current mantra of store closures and cost cutting.

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  15. It is clear that Tesla is comitting suicide: in most European countries people will not buy a car online. But moreover, we already see that the model 3 kills the S and X: in the Netherlands, in Norway, sales of S and X are going down the drain because people have a cheaper alternative in the model 3. Now that Tesla promises the cheaper versions ths same thing will happen again: people are switching from the higher prices Performance versions to the base version. And at the same time there are huge discounts on S and X. Tesla gives away its margin and becomes an old skool manufacturer, with volumes at very low margins. But with 500,000 or 1 million vehicles at low margin it will not survive.

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  16. I just realized that the Model 3 has quite a different price tag in every European country. Countries with a different currency like Switzerland, Norway or Sweden I would understand but why is the price in Euro Zone different from country to country?
    Does anybody know that?

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