 |
| Xpeng G3: A rising star? |
Foreign
brands shine in cooling market
After a strong start of the year, May saw the Chinese
plugin market hit the brakes, to some 104,000 registrations, up only 2% YoY, but because the
mainstream market is falling significantly (-17%!), the May PEV share reached
an amazing 6.6%, pulling the PEV market share to 5.6%, frankly above the 2018
result (4.2%).
At this pace, this market could reach some 7% share by
the end of this year and cross the 10% share in 2020. And that’s when things
start to get interesting…Maybe it’s still early to say that part of the
mainstream market drop comes from the EV Osborne effect, but at this point, I
wouldn’t bet against it.
One thing is certain, this is without doubt the most
fascinating plugin market on Earth, with several seismic changes happening at
the same time, it’s not only the Tesla Model 3 joining the party, it’s also
foreign brands scaling up plugin production to meet this year quotas, it’s the
local startup companies hitting relevant volumes in the race to survive, all
while the local big players race between each other to see who gets to launch
more models faster (right now the race is between Geely and BYD, with each
launching around 1 new model…per month!), with some of them no longer being BEV
conversions made on the cheap, but dedicated EVs, with world class style and
specs.
This month, foreign OEMs shined, with their market share
surging to a record 14%, with Volkswagen jumping to 5% share (currently, VW has
6% share in Europe), followed by Tesla (3%), BMW (2%) and Nissan (1%).
In May, the surprises came in #3, with the
Roewe Ei5 EV scoring a record 5,488 units, while in #5 we have the JAC
E-Series, with 4,505 units.
Here’s May
Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:
#1 – BAIC EU-Series: The electric sedan scored 7,079 units last month, confirming to
be the brand’s main bet for this year. The revised design and improved specs
(215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) allows it to remain a popular
choice, but with new sedans coming from seemingly every corner of the universe,
Beijing Auto’s will soon need to update again the specs, especially when a
certain GAC Aion S promises 510 kms / 318 mi NEDC range, for less than
$30,000...
#2 – BYD Yuan EV: The Baby Crossover continues on the road for success, with the new 58
kWh version helping to keep the fire alive, so BYD’s star product continues to
be delivered at a fast pace, with 6,044
units being delivered in May. With a thousand-long waiting list, demand is no
problem, depending more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large
volumes (The Tang and Qin Pro are more profitable…), than anything else. With
unrivalled specs (58 kWh battery, 410 kms/255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), and
price (25,000 USD), this is the year strongest candidate for the Best Seller
title.
#3 – SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV: This model
was something of a shot in a dark for Shaghai Auto, as station wagons aren’t common
in China, but it has paid off, as the nameplate is not only the maker
bestselling model, but it had its best month ever in May, with 5,488
units. Based on the GM platform Delta II (think Chevrolet Cruze, Opel Astra, or
the Buick Velite 6 sibling), the Chinese wagon profits from a quality design
and unique body, compensating the middle-of-the-road specs (35 kWh battery; 301
kms / 187 mi range) and price (213,800 CNY / $33,219).
#4 – JAC iEV
E-Series: The city
EV is the new star in JAC’s lineup, having registered 4,505 units in May, mostly thanks to competitive specs (42
kWh, 310 kms / 194 mi range NEDC), considering the price (CNY 112,550 / USD 16,300).
With a distinctive design (for some reason the front reminds me of a mix
between a bulldog and a panda), the nameplate is continuing its brilliant work
as the piano-carrier of the Hefei
maker.
#5 – Chery
eQ: One of the
pioneering EV brands, Chery had won China’s Best Selling EV title three times
in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), and the automaker regained relevance with the small eQ
EV, having registered 3,818 units
last month, allowing it to collect another Top 5 position. But the increased
competition (JAC iEV E-Series, BYD e1…), might make a dent in the nameplate
success, especially considering it has a range (200 kms / 120 mi) that falls
well below what the competition (see JAC E-Series) has to offer.
| GAC Aion S: The Next Big Thing in China? |
2019 ranking
The market
is dynamic as ever, with plenty of changes and record results, the most
important position change was the Roewe Ei5 EV climbing to #6, with SAIC’s
station wagon now looking to reach the #5 Geely Emgrand EV, preferably with
another record score.
And in good
time that the Ei5 EV is going up, because its stablemate Baojun E-Series is
dropping like a rock, having scored just 546 units, losing positions to the #8
Great Wall Ora R1 EV and #9 JAC iEV E-Series, both direct competitors in the
race to displace the #7 Chery eQ from the throne of Best Selling City EV.
Great Wall
is surely happy with its Ora’s lineup, not only the R1 was up, but the strange
looking singular iQ5 EV SUV also climbed one position, to #13.
There were
none other than three new faces in the Top 20, with the highest entry being the
BMW 530Le, in #17, becoming the highest standing full-size model and the 3rd
foreign nameplate in the ranking, together with the #11 VW Passat PHEV and the
#18 Tesla Model 3, this being the first time that 3 foreign nameplates appear
on the Chinese Top 20.
The Xpeng G3
EV, from the startup Xiaopeng, also joined the Top 20, in #19, surpassing at
the same time the other local startups, Weltmeister and Nio, although this last
one is keeping the best-selling full-size SUV title, with its ES8 SUV in #21,
and with its smaller (and cheaper) SUV ES6 landing in June, expect Nio to
recover the Best Selling Startup title soon.
The final
entry in the ranking is the BYD Qin Pro EV, with the midsize sedan scoring a
record 2,936 units. Interestingly, the other two additions to the ranking also
did it with record performances, with the Xpeng G3 doing it with 2,704 units
and the 530Le with 2,878.
Despite this
record performance, the Bimmer wasn’t the best selling foreigner last
month, and it wasn’t the Passat PHEV (3,293) either, but the Nissan Sylphy EV,
that came out of nowhere to score 3,335 units in May, if the Japanese sedan
manages to keep the pace in the coming months, expect another foreign nameplate
in the Top 20 soon…
Looking at
the manufacturers ranking, BYD (22%, down 1%) is leading, thanks to the success
of its lineup (there’s 3 BYD’s on the the Top 4 spots, and 5 in the Top 20), while
below it, SAIC (9%) is ahead on the 2nd spot race, closely followed
of BAIC (8%), while Geely (6%, down 1%) lost some ground to the podium bearers.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteThe BYD e1 is a very small EV model (it's only 3465 mm long), but it's equipped with a 32.2 kWh battery pack, and the range is about 300 km. The price: 60,000 RMB - 80,000 RMB.
BYD had delivered 1,157 units of the BYD e1 in April 2019. How many units of the BYD e1 were delivered in May 2019?
Do you think that it's likely that the BYD e1 will be in the top 20 by the end of 2019?
Cheers,
Around 1,500 in May. Well, it's a bit the same problem as the Yuan, because BYD is battery constrained, the most expensive and profitable models have priority, so i guess the e1 will be on the back of the line until they have enough batteries. Or demand for other models falls.
DeleteInteresting to see the Qin Pro EV about to overtake the PHEV one... The BYD models available as both, traditionally sold way more of the PHEV variants. (Possibly because there is way less competition in Chinese PHEV models?...)
ReplyDeleteI think it is a good sign, as previously PHEVs had priority in production, because for 1 BEV, they could sell 3 PHEVs, earning more money with it…
DeleteApparently, they have more battery output, which allows them to ramp up BEV production of the Qin and Song and even launch barely profitable models (e1).
May 1249 as per: http://www.chinamobil.ru/eng/byd/e1/?view=sales
ReplyDeleteBest wishes
Ahmet Giz
Jose hi,
ReplyDeleteI have heard from a dealer rep in the US that some 1/3 of US Leaf manufacturing is being shipped to China. Do you know anything of this? If true, do you think it is badged as Sylphy as well?
Thanks, Assaf
Doubt that, the Sylphy EV is locally made in China, and Asian Leafs come from Japan.
DeleteVery much appreciate the data, but I noticed your numbers on Model 3 indicate downward revisions for May and/or April, as ytd 7392-1000=5392 vs 6738 ytd reported for May. And in May the 6738-3000 for May=3738 ytd didn't conform with 5300 reported for April. Can you clarify where each month now falls?
ReplyDeleteConsidering the ships that arrived to China, i was estimating a higher number of deliveries, but when the import numbers come my way, usually with a two weeks delay over the China post, then numbers are lower than estimated, that is why the Model 3 deliveries are revised downwards.
DeleteA downward trend shouldn't be surprising. Once giga 3 opens Chinese consumers will be able to buy a M3 at a substantially lower price due to lack of tariffs. Only S, X, and performance M3 will likely be sold in China until the factory opens.
DeleteWell yes, they actually removed the imported SR+ from the Chinese order page now, only leaving the option to pre-order the domestic one.
Delete(LR RWD and LR AWD are still available for order though, along with Performance -- AIUI none of these be made in Shanghai?)
However, I wouldn't be surprised if there are actually *more* orders coming in now that the exact specs and prices are known for all variants, so people no longer have a reason to wait and see...
AWD versions are said to be imported from the US, while the LR RWD is supposed to be discontinued (again).
DeleteI hope this last Model 3 version (LR RWD) gets back in production sooner than later, as it is the best from the lot.
The LR RWD variant still seems to be available for order on the Chinese site -- and AFAIK it was the same last time it was (temporarily) discontinued in the US?
DeleteNote: since last Sunday, Model 3 SR+ is not available in Tesla's China website (US produced version).
ReplyDeleteSomething doesn't add up with the sales numbers. Tesla sent 14 ships to China (8 in Q1 and 6 in Q2), which should amount to roughly 42000 cars (3000 cars per ship), and probably around 80% of them Model 3. And yet, the sales so far are 7400.
ReplyDeleteIn Europe, Tesla sent 13 ships (8 in Q1 and 5 in Q2), but at least they are selling 3-4 times more in Europe than in China.
If every 10000 cars of inventory in China equates to roughly 500 mil $ of unsold inventory, that is not a good picture in this moment.
I have been thinking about that too, consequence of the oficial numbers being consistently lower than my ship-based estimates.
DeleteI think Tesla overvalued the initial Model 3 demand in China, that is why they put GF3 on Fast Forward.
I have no doubt there is Model 3 unsold inventory in China, but how big that number is, i do not know.
Pretty sure there isn't significant unsold inventory... Why would they keep making and shipping them, if they had no buyers? That just doesn't make sense.
DeleteIf demand is low in a country, why put so many resources into a factory in the country?
DeleteIt seems like if you realized it wasn't selling in China, you'd put Gigafactory 3 on pause and shift all your efforts over to the European Gigafactory where the car is doing much better.
Maybe we'll see some Model 3 blowout in China in June? If there's really 14 boats full of Model 3 that went there so far this year, I don't see how there'd be fewer than 20K sold.
Well, it's quite likely that orders have been low *because* the Shanghai factory will be ready soon, bringing cheaper locally built Model 3; thus people being reluctant to order the imported ones... Might be one reason why Tesla opened order for the Chinese-built Model 3 early: once people know exactly what price and equipment the local version will come with, they can better decide whether to wait for that one, or order one of the imported variants now...
DeleteIt's an interesting question of course what would happen if demand had really turned out way lower than expected... Would it be cheaper to stop construction and write down the investments already made, rather than completing the factory and running it way below capacity? Not sure.
Having said that, I don't think that's very likely. From the number of reservations (who didn't cancel over the course of almost three years, before Shanghai construction reached a point of no return), Tesla should have a reasonably good idea about medium-term demand.
Wann hat BYD endlich mehr Kapazität für ihre BEV Fahrzeuge?
ReplyDeleteDo you have an explanation on why the rate of progress has fallen so much? Is this related to the reduction of subsidies or to the shortage of batteries, triggered in part by the tendency to have bigger battery packs per car?
ReplyDeleteAIUI the subsidy reduction will only hit on June 26th. So that shouldn't reduce sales right now -- on the contrary, I'd expect a demand pull-forward...
DeleteI wonder whether perhaps demand was pulled forward into earlier months instead, because people were expected the subsidy cuts to come sooner?
It is a good question indeed, maybe as antrik said, it was a question of pull forward demand, where people anticipated the end of subsidies in the first months of the year,
DeleteJose,
ReplyDeleteAfter 5 months there are only two EV models (the BYD Yuan EV and the BAIC EU-series) that have reached/crossed the 30,000 sales milestone so far in 2019 (in China).
And only these two EV models have the chance to reach/cross the 100,000 annual sales milestone in 2019 (in China).
In 2020 it will be a totally different ballgame (in China).
Cheers
I have high hopes in a number of new models, namely the GAC Aion S, or the China-made Model 3, so despite this recent growth dip, i am still optimistic.
DeleteI just realized that EV-Sales hasn't covered USA sales since March 2019. What happened to April 2019 numbers, and aren't they normally one of the first countries covered each month, so I'd expect May 2019 numbers by now, too?
ReplyDeleteI am covering them quarterly now.
Delete