Thursday, January 31, 2019

Global Top 20 - December 2018

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 lot

Models: (2018 Best Seller) Tesla Model 3 hits (another) Record in a historic December

Registrations grew 70%  YoY in December, to an historic 286,000 units, making a 4 times streak of record months. 

This brilliant performance helped the yearly tally to cross the 2 million PEVs mark, placing the final 2018 global PEV share, at 2,1% share, with this volume representing a big 72 65% improvement regarding 2017, meaning the market accelerated in 2018, regarding the previous year, as the 2017 growth YoY had been 58%.

Interestingly, the last 9 months always had 60%-plus growth rates, with the last 3 months showing 70%-something numbers, which could mean that 2019 the market will grow at least as fast as in 2018, which could place the total numbers of this year at 3,5 million, and almost 4% share. (And 7% in 2020? 12% in 2021? This would set the Big ICE Vehicle Crash two years from now).

In December the question at the top was knowing if the Silver Medal would change hands, and in deed it did, with the BAIC EC-Series finally overcoming the Nissan Leaf, with last year winner ending 2018 with Silver, far behind this year winner, the Tesla Model 3, that celebrated its first trophy with yet another all-time record, by delivering over 25,000 units last month.

Despite dropping to 3rd, the Nissan Leaf had reasons to celebrate, as it returned to the podium, after having being left out in 2017, finally beating its 2014 record (61.013 units).

In a record month, there was a lot to talk about, with the Tesla Model X jumping 2 positions to 5th, making 3 Teslas in the Top 5(!), while on the other hand, the Prius PHEV, Toyota's only plugin model, dropped three positions in one month, to #9, a position that pales compared to the 3rd spot of 2017. Do i hear an alarm call at Toyota HQ? Are they listening?

A telling tale of the disruption that is happening, is that despite being only #9, the Japanese hatchback was the Second Best Selling model, coming from a Legacy OEM. Above it, we have 3 Teslas, 2 BYD, 1 BAIC, one JAC model and the Nissan Leaf. 

Disruption is coming in two ways, one comes from Tesla, the other, from China.

As for the remaining ranking, the Renault Zoe and the BMW 530e took the last month of the year to climb positions, with the French reaching #11, thanks to a record 5.519 deliveries, while the German was up to #12, thanks to a best ever score of 6.215 units.

But the Climbers of the Month came from China, the Tang PHEV, one of BYD's Dynamic Duo, climbed to #16, with a record 6.809 units, while the Tang's Robin, the Yuan EV, jumped three positions, to #17 in December, securing not only its status of Rookie Of The Year, but being also the 5th(!) BYD in this Top 20.

Other Chinese lineup shining in December was BAIC, not only the EC-Series won Silver, but the EU-Series sedan and EX-Series crossover joined the Top 20, with the sedan jumping to #15, thanks to an amazing 12.561 units, being only the third model to get a monthly 10.000 units-plus performance (the other two were the Tesla Model 3 and BAIC EC-Series), while the crossover sneaked into #20, thanks to a record 6.844 registrations.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by yet another 2%, to 69% of the total market, mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 1411 2011! 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla wins the 2018 Trophy *

December saw Tesla and BYD race for the monthly Manufacturers title, with both scoring impressive record performances, but in the end, Tesla took the December award, with almost 40.000 units. 

After 10 years on the market, Tesla has finally become the Best Selling EV maker in the World, with 245.000 units, winning over the previous Best Seller, BYD, with a 18.000 units advantage

Looking into 2019, Tesla is set to repeat the title, and right now, BYD seems to be the only maker able to follow Tesla's pace. Is it a coincidence that both do not depend of third party battery makers? 

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, both #3 BAIC and the #4 BMW broke their personal records in December, being the only other makers to surpass the 100.000 mark.

The most important changes happened in #8, with Hyundai shooting 5 spots, to #8, thanks to a record 8.174 registrations, and in #9, with Renault climbing to #9, with a record 7.188 units. Is it a coincidence that both are beating sales records at the same time that their battery provider (LG Chem) is finally ramping up production?
Below the Top 10, there were several Chinese makers beating records and climbing positions, JAC climbed to #13, with a record 8.520 units, while JMC was up to #15, thanks to an amazing 12.349 registrations, and Dongfeng had a personal best performance of 11.212 units, allowing it to reach #18. 

Grouping sales by brand origin, Chinese makers ended the year with 49% of share in the 2018 sales, a 4% increase regarding 2017, with the USA makers (16%) stable in Second, with Tesla compensating for the US Legacy OEMs drop, but the #3 Germany is losing steam fast, with the German OEMs losing 7% share from 2017 (19%) to 2018 (12%).

* - In the Light vehicle market, if we add Heavy Duty Vehicles (Buses and Trucks), BYD was still the Top Dog, with 247.000 units. 

Segment Leaders

A / City Car - In a segment completely owned by Chinese OEMs, the BAIC EC-Series is the undisputed King;

B / Subcompact - The Renault Zoe continues to outsell the BMW i3;

C / Compact - The Nissan Leaf recovered the title, with the BYD Qin PHEV and BYD e5 following it at a distance; 

D / Midsize - What has been expected, happened: The Tesla Model 3 is the undisputed, class leader;

E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S, hands down leader since 2012. Second Place is in the hands of the successful (#12) BMW 530e, followed by the Porsche Panamera PHEV (10.000 units);

Sports car / Coupé / Convertible - BMW i8 (2.911 units), is in the lead once again, without real competition, for reference, the Second Placed was the recently arrived BAIC Arcfox Lite (Well, if one can consider it a Coupé...), with 614 units;

SUV / Crossover - The hottest class on the Automotive World is seeing its class poster-child, the Tesla Model X, in front, followed by the Renault Captur-like JAC iEV7S/E (#7) and the #10 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV;

MPV / Minivan - A class that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Crossover craze, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer is still the segment Best Seller (14.076 units), followed by the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (8.629 units);

LCV / Van - The Renault Kangoo ZE profited from the new 33kWh battery to jump ahead, with 8.537 units, followed by the StreetScooter (4.842 units) and the Nissan e-NV200 (4.280);

Pick up Truck - The Chinese Dongfeng Rich EV (632 units) repeated last year title, being the only model to reach significant numbers. This is a golden opportunity that no one so far (Chinese included) has tried to take. Will we all have to wait for Rivian to land?

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Markets Roundup December 2018

Image result for EV cars gathering

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:


* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.


* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 


* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

Image result for EV's in hong Kong

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.