Thursday, December 31, 2020

Global Top 20 November 2020


 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação

Models: Small EVs shine in Record month

After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has become a records fest, after a record September, last month brought another record score, with over 400.000 units, and expect December to perform yet another record, maybe above 500,000 registrations.

With plugin registrations going up 133%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, with both technologies running hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 289.000 units, while PHEVs jumped 155%, to a 125.000 units.

This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +32% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins. 

With the overall automotive market in the red, added to another record month, the November PEV share jumped to a record 5.9% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.8% (2.6% BEV), and with the help of a great December, expect the final 2020 share to end north of 4%, well above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its share on the way, to some 6-7% in 2021, and in 2022...The Disruption Zone, with two-digit scores. 

The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 

The half tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, with over 39.000 deliveries, its best off-peak score ever, so expect the sports sedan to have a record result in December, while the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a 33.094 units last month, its 5th record score in a row, with the tiny EV closing in to the leader, and expect the tiny EV to continue ramping up deliveries throughout December.

While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, the surprise in this Top 5 is the appearance of the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, with almost 10.000 units, a new record for the City EV, highlighting the current main trend in China, the rise of city EVs. 

On the YTD table, the Wuling Mini EV shined once again, removing the Renault Zoe from the runner-up spot, earning it the Silver medal position, while making the tiny EV the strongest non-Tesla candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium, as the 20.000 units difference seem almost insurmountable, with just one race to go.

Regarding other position changes, the VW Passat PHEV jumped two positions, to #9, followed by the Baojun E-Series, that was also up, to #10.

On the PHEV side, the favorite for the 2020 Selling trophy is the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, was last month Best Selling PHEV, and only a surprising score by the BMW 530e/Le twins in December will change the current chain of events. 

On the second half of the table, two more small Chinese EVs are on the rise, with Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumping three positions, to #14, while the Chery eQ climbed to #18, and in #19 we now have the much antecipated Volkswagen ID.3, that should jump a few more positions in December, possibly ending the year in #15.

Finally, outside the Top 20, one model deserves a mention, with the rising #21 Li Xiang One (4.646 units in November, new record) looking to join the table in the last stage of the race, but for that to happen, it will not only need to recover the 1.300 units of advance that the #20 Peugeot 208 EV, but also keep a close eye on the high tide of the #22 Tesla Model X, which is some 1.200 units behind it and hope that the BYD Han EV (7.482 units in November, 4th record in a row!) doesn't show up on the rearviewmirror on last minutes of the race, as the flagship BYD is doing everything to join the table already in 2020.

Manufacturers: Chinese makers on the rise 

The mid-tide mode Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title, but has seen the rising SGMW joint-venture cut the distance, wth the small EV maker scoring an amazing 41.793 score last month, allowing it to climb one position in the ranking, to #5, exchanging positions with Mercedes, but don't think the German maker wasn't pushing the pedal to the metal, as the 24.091 units it did in November represented its 5th record in a row(!), but it's just that SGMW is in a different league, and it should jump a few more spots in December, probably ending the year with the Bronze medal.

Back to Mercedes, of the German Three Marys (Audi, BMW, Mercedes), it looks to be the most dynamic in the present days, and with several models to launch in 2021, just BEVs, it will be the EQA, EQB and EQS, expect it to become a Top 5 member next month.

By the way, in a record month, there were record galore, 10 in this Top 20, to be exact, besides the aforementioned, the most relevants came from Volkswagen (27.756 units), that should have secured the runner-up spot for 2020 (Not bad for a Year Zero, not bad at all...), but also Great Wall, that registered 11.649 units, mostly thanks to their Cat Pack, allowing them to climb two positions, to #16, while Chery (re)joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 7.927 units. 

Highlighting the Chinese brands good moment, SAIC climbed to #11, while  GAC was up to #14, with 7.556 units, a new year best for the brand. 

Interestingly, despite the recent launch (in some markets) of the RAV4 PHEV model, Toyota had the worst score of this Top 20, being inclusively beaten by niche makers, like Porsche and NIO. 

Toyota's potential to thrive in the plugin market is still there, but the window of opportunity is slowly closing down...It kind of reminds those young players that have everything to rise to the top, but then years go by, and they never seem to materialize the promises made in the past...

Looking at the ranking by OEMs, SAIC won in November, with 54.960 registrations, followed by Tesla (54.566 units), while the Volkswagen Group was relegated to 3rd, with little more than 52.000 units.

SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Europe November 2020

Record Month! 

Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-14% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered a record 166,000 registrations in November (+198% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (8% BEV), helping numbers to rise 123%, to over 1 million units, pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share crossed north of 10% mark (5.4% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. So, let the games begin...

...And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, so we should see some 15%-plus 20% market share in the last month of they year...

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

So...Will we see the plugin share hit 20% in 2021?

BEVs are running fast (83.512 units, +182% YoY), but PHEVs are going faster (+217%), with these last ones hitting new record month (82,743) for the second time in a row, pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the Renault Zoe, that managed to beat the VW ID.3, but December should be all about the race between the Tesla Model 3 and the VW new EV, as i believe both models are going to have a deliveries high tide, with Volkswagen trying to out-Tesla the US carmaker.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as November's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  are the same as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at November Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – November was another good month for the French EV, with 9,953 deliveries of the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (4,287 units), followed by France (2,944), with Italy (555 units) and the UK (450) also helping along. In December, expect the Zoe to end in 3rd, behind the high tide Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3, but the 20,000 units advantage that it has collected throughout the year, should be enough to keep the YTD leadership and become the 2020 Best Seller in Europe. 

#2 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV wasn't able to win the November trophy over the Renault Zoe, delivering just 8,496 registrations, which might look underwhelming, but then again, it could be Volkswagen downplaying in November, in order to have a surprise high tide in December, as i suspect it will happen. The first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (2,439), the Netherlands (1,485), Norway (986), and Sweden (773). Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 for the December Best Seller title. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Hyundai's star EV seems to have stabilized at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,375 deliveries in November can prove. With the upcoming Ioniq 5 BEV  compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 2,474 deliveries, followed by the Netherlands (529 units), Norway (355) and France (344).

#4 Tesla Model 3 - Last years Best Selling EV in Europe delivered 5,014 units, which while is not a record for a second-month-of-quarter performance, is not too shabby either, meaning that the Tesla midsizer seems to have (finally!) found its cruise speed. The sports sedan main markets in November were Germany (1,617 deliveries), the UK (900 units), France (501) and Switzerland (356). Expect the Model 3 to have another high tide in December and win next month Best Seller title, but it will have to look over its shoulder and check where the VW ID.3 is, as the unassuming hatchback is looking to steal the show from the Californian in the last minute. 

#5 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the star player in the PHEV field, with November registering 4,517 units, with its biggest markets being Germany (1,612 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (443 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?

Looking at the remaining November Best Sellers, the BMW 330e was #6, with its second record score in a row, in this case 4,229 deliveries, most of them being the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples).

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, like the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV, that scored 3,618 units, beating the nameplate's long running record score, set in December 2015, so expect the compact plugin hybrid to be a strong candidate to the 2021 Best Selling PHEV title, so we might even see Volkswagen collecting both the BEV and PHEV Best Seller titles next year... 

Another known model on the rise is the #12 Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 3,371 registrations in November, so despite the underwhelming specs, the tiny EV is growing fast, highlighting the latest trend in Europe: City EVs are rising, besides the Fortwo EV record score, its slightly longer sibling Forfour EV also hit a best ever performance (984 units), like the VW e-Up (3,318), while the new Renault Twingo EV (1,009) and Fiat 500e (1,285) are ramping up deliveries, with the Italian model in particular having potential to be Top 20 material.  

The Smart record performances highlight Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group continues to have records galore every month, with 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, E-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores. 

A reference also to the #19 Mazda MX-30, despite being imagined like a niche model, the truth is that as Mazda's only available EV, it will have to sell in large numbers, in order to lower the maker CO2-related fines, so the quirky crossover is being registered in surprising volumes, with November representing a new record, with 2,640 units. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 2,212 registrations of the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French carmaker already having the small 208 EV in cruise speed, now it's time to ramp up the electric crossover production, speaking of compact crossovers, FCA is ramping up the production of the Jeep Compass PHEV, having registered 1,466 units last month, while Volvo has finally launched the BEV version of its XC40 best seller, with 1,311 deliveries in its first month and Land Rover has done the same with the PHEV versions of the posh Range Rover Evoque (1,411 units) and family-friendly Discovery Sport (721).

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium positions seem already decided, so the big news is the jump to 6th of the VW ID.3, that should climb a few more positions in December, probably ending the year in #4, just in time to surpass its e-Golf antecessor. 

A secondary effect of the ID.3 rise, is that we now have a fully BEV Top 9, followed by 7 PHEV models, which makes the table look like there is an "A" League, made only by the best BEVs, and a "B" League, with the best PHEVs.

On the "B" League, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to keep the category leadership, but it will be hard for the Japanese SUV to keep ahead of its most direct competitors in the last stage of the race, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #12 Mercedes A250e, and #14 BMW 330e...) are all running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in December, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

Among them, the one i think will take the PHEV Best Seller title is the Mercedes A250e. Any other bets?

Looking at the remaining position changes, the VW e-Up was up one spot, to #18, while we have a return to the Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV showing up in #20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (11% share, up 1%) has gained precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), that now is more concerned in keeping the 2nd position away from the #3 Mercedes (9%), that profits from its strong (and long) lineup to gain ground over the French brand.

Outside the podium, Tesla, BMW and Volvo, all with 7% share, are looking to join the podium in December, only Tesla has real chances to do so, thanks to the expected end of quarter high tide.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 36% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,336 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells half of the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,343 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to jump its sales to 1,916 units, the Sports SUV best score in 23 months and a 89% jump YoY. It seems the Austrian-built Jaguar still has some tricks (ahem, lowering its outrageous high price to something more palatable...) up its sleeve to fight the newcomers. 

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 3,459 units last month, with its sales jumping 162% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,151 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (474 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas, with the Model X having 293 deliveries in November and the Model S some 287 units, with the higher riding Tesla witnessing a steep fall of 45% YoY, which should worry Tesla, as steep drops have been the norm for the big Teslas throughout the year, and while this is still a rarefied market, all it took was Mercedes to convert the Passenger version of a Van into electric drive, which basically it's what the EQV is, to beat both the Model S and X.

In 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...

Thursday, December 24, 2020

China November 2020

Record Month

If the overall Chinese market is slowly picking up (+12% YoY), plugins are already on the fast lane, growing by 138% YoY in November, to a record 198,000 units, and this time PHEVs grew faster (+164%), than BEVs (+134%), but despite this uptick from plugin hybrids, BEVs still own 80% of the market.

Last month, plugin share reached a record 8.6% (7.2% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 5.9% (4.7% BEV), a half percent increase that has finally pulled over the 2019 result of 5.5%, and with December set to establish yet another record score, expect the final PEV share to end North of the 6% mark, but this is only the beginning, as next year we should see a few two digit monthly shares, preparing the disruption to finally set in by 2022...In the largest automotive market in the World.

And once we get to that point, then it's time over for ICE.

Looking at November Best Sellers, we have 3 City EVs, confirming the return of small EVs to the spotlight, with the Wuling EV keeping the Best Seller status.

Here’s November Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

 A big name for a small car, the Wuling EV scored 33,094 units last month, its 5th record score in a row, meaning that the production ramp up is continuing, and expect the tiny four-seater to grow even further next month. The reason for this tremendous success? It is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV. Range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles... At this price level, the Wuling EV is a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV is becoming a game changer in China, and should do the same elsewhere, if (when?) it manages to expand to overseas markets.


#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 21,606 units last month, with Tesla’s midsizer now being almost exclusively made locally, only 2 units came from Freemont, and with December being usually the highest peak in this market, will we see it reach some 25,000 units in December? Looking at next year sales performance, expect it to build on the current numbers, growing moderately, because despite the internal competition of the new MiC Model Y, China's mainstream market is still very much a sedan-friendly market, so its higher riding sibling will have less impact here, than in SUV-crazed USA, or hatchback-friendly Europe,  where the Model Y's hatchback-desguised as SUV form will help it thrive.


 #3 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Probably inspired by Deng Xiaoping famous quote: "It doesn't matter wether a cat is black or white, as long as it catched mice",  Great Wall decided to create a Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall is launching of the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. But enough of the Good Cat, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 9,463 units in November, it's 2nd record score in a row, so the new name is allowing a second youth to the small EV. So for December, will it get...10,000 mice deliveries?

#4 – BYD Han EV

BYD's flagship model was 4th in November, having registered 7,842 units, its 4th record performance in a row, so it looks the production ramp up is still happening, and demand willing, the Han EV should score its first five-digit score next month. One of the most competitive domestic EVs on the market, the flagship BYD is becoming a regular in this Top 5, thanks to competitive pricing, it's the size of a Model S, and yet it costs only $32,800, less than the cheaper Model 3. But price doesn't tell the whole story, with a cutting edge 77 kWh LFP battery allowing it to reach 605 km (376 miles) NEDC range (think 400 km / 250 miles in real world), the Han EV is a whole package, with good looks, competitive specs and features, with the killer prices being just the icing on the cake.

#5 – SAIC Baojun E-Series

Compared with the bare basics Wuling EV, the Baojun E-Series (E100/200/300) are the SGMW more hip and upmarket city models, with demand hitting record levels, with 7,842 units being delivered in November. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes them appealing for young urban drivers, as well as car-sharing companies and other fleets. 

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in November, in a record month, several models hit best ever scores, like the Li Xiang One, that with 4,646 units, was last month Best Selling PHEV, consolidating its status as the Best Selling Large SUV and the most successful model coming from a local EV startup.

Speaking of local startups, the Welmeister EX5 hit another record month (3,018 units), while BYD had 3 models with record scores, besides the aforementioned Han EV, its plugin hybrid twin, the Han PHEV (2,623) continued its record streak, with the two models clocking 10,105 units if added together, while the compact BYD e2 also reached a record performance, its second in a row, with 2,670 units, with these performances confirming the return to form from the Shenzhen maker.

A final reference to the surprise appearance of FAW's baby Hongqi, the E-HS3, in #19, with the Premium brand's compact SUV scoring a record performance of 2,552 units, which could be a good sign for the upcoming full-size yacht SUV, the Hongqi E-HS9.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the Model 3 is the 2020 undisputed leader, but below it, the Wuling Mini EV is already preparing next year's assault to the Best Selling EV title in China.

This highlights the latest trend in China, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Wuling EV, but also the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that jumped two spots, to #4, not forgetting the #5 Baojun E-Series and the #7 Chery eQ, thus making 4 City EVs in the Top 7.   

But it weren’t only City EVs rising in the table, as the local EV startups continue climbing positions, with the Li Xiang One rising to #8, securing the Best Selling PHEV spot in the table, while the Best Selling Full Size model title is almost in the bag, as the BYD Han EV is 7,000 units behind, and speaking of the flagship BYD, the big electric sedan was the Climber of the Month, jumping from #18 to #12, as it prepares to storm through the Top 10 in the last month of the year.

The much hyped XPeng P7 also had reasons to celebrate, as the sedan climbed to #19, while the relifted Changan Eado EV joined the table, in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (15%) jumped to the leadership, surpassing BYD (also 15%) and #2 Tesla (12%), all at once, mostly thanks to the disruptive force of the Wuling Mini EV.

Below the podium, the race is tight, SAIC (6%, down 1% share) is 4th, followed by the #5 GAC (5%, down 1%), and #6 Volkswagen (also 5%).

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Germany November 2020

 21% share! Open the Plugin Gates!   

The German automotive market has opened wide open the flood gates to plugin vehicles, November was yet another record month and this time with a 24% increase over the previous record, set in October. With a little less than 60,000 units, PEVs scored an amazing 21% share (10% BEV) in the overall market, and it were BEVs to drive the market forward, up 553%(!), to 28,965 units, helping plugins as a whole jump an amazing 456% last month, we are witnessing disruptive numbers, that the yearly tally hasn't really absorbed, as it is only at 12% (5.8% BEV), so expect 2021 to be the real witness of the current disruption, with plugin share above 20% for plugins and BEVs hovering above 10%.

And this is happening in a (sort of) stable market (-3% YoY), so this can't be blamed on the Covid pandemic, it's just the market forces working...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, in November the Renault Zoe reigned supreme, beating once again the VW ID.3, that was even relegated to the 3rd spot by the Hyundai Kona EV, that is just going from strength to strength, scoring another record result, now of 2,471 units.

While we expected more from the new Volkswagen hatchback, in its defence, we could say that it has some pretty fierce competition in-house, starting with the new Golf VIII PHEV, that despite having just landed a couple of months ago, it is already #6, with 2,152 deliveries, while the ID.3 predecessor, the e-Golf, seems to be refusing to go into greener pastures, having registered 1,941 units last month, only 498 less than VW's new baby.

So, looking at the bright side, if we count all these 3 models together, we get 6,532 registrations, which is well above the tally of the leader Zoe. In another positive story for the German maker, Volkswagen has placed 5 models in the Best Selling Top 9 of November, 3 of of them (e-Up, Golf PHEV, Passat GTE) with record scores! 

Other relevant performances regard the Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 2,386 deliveries, highlighting another great month for the Daimler Group, not only the other Smart model, the Forfour EV, had also a record performance (632 units), but Mercedes placed 5 models in last month Top 20, two of them with record scores (GLC300e/de and CLA250e), while below the Top 20, the three-pointed-star maker had 5 other models (B250, GLA250e, EQC, GLE350e/de, EQV) hitting record performances...Now, that what i call a production ramp up!

In such a high volume month, record scores were plenty, with more than half of the models on this Top 20 table having best ever performances, besides the aforementioned, we should highlight the record 1,465 deliveries of the Opel Corsa EV (It looks like Opel, a brand that many had classified as a "has been", in sports terms, has returned to form under PSA, now starting to justify the investiment that the French Group has made in them), the Mazda MX-30 showed up on the Top 20, thanks to a record 1,211 units (a result of true demand or is it a CO2-compliance thing?), while all the BMW's on the table scored record scores, if the 330e and X1 PHEV performances were expected, as the first now profits from the Touring (aka station wagon) body, and the second is a fresh model, the i3 record is a welcome surprise, proving that even veterans are benefiting from the tailwind of the current plugin fever. Hell, even the Nissan Leaf had a record score (503 units)!

Outside this Top 20, we had other relevant performances, like the record 571 units of the Peugeot 208 EV (well, next to the 4,287 of its Zoe arch-rival, it does look kind of lame, but moving on...), .or the 565 deliveries of the Porsche Taycan, while on the other tip of the Volkswagen Group, the SEAT e-Mii EV also had a record 538 registrations, that added to the 592 Skoda Citigo EV and the 1,666 of the VW e-Up, we end up with 2,796 units from the VW Group city triplets, which is a new record for the Bratislava electric siblings in Germany. 

Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, if the leader Zoe is now preparing the Best Seller award party, below it, the Silver medal is still up for grabs, as the VW Passat GTE surpassed the Tesla Model 3 and is the new runner-up, but with just 199 units separating both and the expected high tide of the sports sedan in December, the German model will need to step up its game further, if it wants to keep Silver.

The next position change happened in #7, with the Smart Fortwo EV rising one spot, with the tiny two seater now sandwiched between two Mercedes, the #6 A250e compact and the #8 E300e/de full size model.

Speaking of Mercedes, the three-pointed-star maker one model jumping in the table, with the GLC300e/de going up 4 positions, to #12, immediately above its lower riding counterpart, the C300e/de, that was down to #13. A telling tale of the current SUV fever and another indication of the future success of the Tesla Model Y... 

But the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that was catapulted to #11, and should land inside the Top 10 next month.. 

Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, the Audi Q5 PHEV was up to #10, while on the BMW stable, the 330e climbed one position, to #19.

There were no new faces on the table this time, but it might happen in the last stage of the race, as the both the Audi A6 PHEV and Opel Corsa EV are less than 1,000 units behind the #20 Skoda Superb PHEV, and could theoretically surpass the Czech model, particularly the Opel hatchback, if it continues to ramp up deliveries.

With smaller chances, but able to surprise everyone in the last minute, we have the VW Golf PHEV, that if it continues its steep deliveries ramp up, it might be able to run from behind and secure a Top 20 spot in extremis

In the brands ranking, the leader Volkswagen (16%, up 2%) gained precious advantage over the dangerous Mercedes (14%), that thanks to a strong ramp up of its lineup, is becoming a formidable opponent. The ID.4 volume deliveries will come right on time for the Wolfsburg brand, in order to keep Mercedes in check...

The #3 Audi (9%, down 1%) is losing charge, while outside the podium, Renault (8%) stays ahead of BMW (7%) and it might even try to get a podium spot in December.

Thursday, December 17, 2020

Netherlands November 2020


Volvo XC40 EV lands in hot market (30% Share!)

November saw the Dutch EV market stay in full charge, with the 9,910 units representing the market's best score ever, if we exclude the December months, that are prone incentive-derived year end rushes. 

So...will this December post a new record performance?

The PEV market share jumped to 30% (23% BEV) in November, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 18% (14% BEV), this time PHEVs were the main driver of growth, jumping 450% YoY, to 2,350 registrations, the category best result in this market since December 2016, when it was still benefiting from significant incentives.

Still, the BEV/PHEV technology sales split remained at 75% BEV, 25% PHEV, which together with the current volumes growth, it shows a healthy behavior, on its way to become the second market, after Norway, where BEVs are the new normal.

Looking at last month best sellers, the VW ID.3 won it again, with the German EV being also #1 in the overall market, so the Volkswagen new model could to be the main candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title...In the overall market.

But the event of the month was the impressive landing of the Volvo XC40 EV, with an amazing 825 units, propelling it to the runner-up spot in November, so depending if this performance has continuity, the Belgian-Swede EV could be a dark horse in this market next year.

The Kia Niro EV was 3rd last month, registering a record 767 units, being its third 700-something performance in a row, so it seems Kia's production (or is it demand?) is maxed out for the moment. 

Outside the Top 3, there were two other good news for Volvo, with the S/V60 PHEV reaching #6, with 406 registrations, the twins best result since December 2016, while in #5 we have that honorary and full EV Volvo model, the Polestar 2, with the Sino-Swede scoring a record 500 deliveries, making 3 Volvos in the Top 6...

Another model showing strong results is the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover benefiting from PSA's production ramp up to reach 261 deliveries in November and the 9th position.

On the PHEV side, besides Volvo plugin hybrids, the only other model shining was the Renault Captur PHEV, with a record 191 registrations, while on the second half of the table, we should also mention the tiny SEAT e-Mii EV (aka the Spanish twin of the VW e-Up) scoring a best ever 173 deliveries and joining the Top 20 table, while in #20 we have the Mercedes EQC, that after a looong production ramp up, is finally ready to join the Best Sellers table, having scored a record 128 deliveries in November.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the strong landing of the FIAT 500e, with its first 100 units, so we could have here another contender for a Top 20 position in 2021.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the VW ID.3 surpassed the Tesla Model 3 and is the current runner-up, but because the Californian is having a strong high tide in December, expect it to not only surpass the German hatchback in the last stage of the race, but also overcome the the current leader Kia Niro EV and win the 2020 Best Seller title in December.

Another model climbing positions is the Hyundai Kona EV, now in #4, but the Climber of the Month was undoubtedly the Polestar 2, that jumped five positions, to #12, while its Volvo relatives S/V60 PHEV twins were up to #8, highlighting the good moment of the Swedish brand, that will have a 1-2 win in the PHEV category this year and might even be the only two plugin hybrids on the table by the end of this year.

On the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron was up two positions, to #11, consolidating its status as the Best Selling Luxury model in this market.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (14%) is the leader, followed by Kia (12%), while Tesla (9%, down 1%), was surpassed by Volvo (11%, up 1%), with the Swedish maker currently being the Bronze medalist.

Expect Tesla to recover the podium position in December, maybe even reaching Silver.