Friday, April 30, 2021

Global Top 20 March 2021


Models: Tesla's siblings and the Wuling Mini EV shine in hot market 

Registrations were up for an impressive 173% last month, to some 531,000 units, the second best month ever, only behind the 571,000 units of last December, with BEVs jumping 145%, to some 351,000 units, so we might be seeing the plugin market hit (well) over 5 million units this year

These impressive results this year, with over 1.1 million units being registered already this year, pulled the 2021 PEV share to 5.8% (3.8% BEV), which is already significantly above the 4% of last year, all thanks to a record score in March of 8.2% (5.4% BEV), and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in 2022 the last months of this year...

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and on the economic recovery, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

All Top 5 models of March repeated their February standings, with all podium bearers beating their personal bests, with the Model 3 in particular setting a new all-time monthly record for a single EV model, with close to 76,000 units. Will we see it beat the 100,000 units mark this year?

The top 3 are really in a league of their own, with these 3 models alone representing almost 30% of March deliveries.

Just below this Top 5, we see some surprises, with the Hyundai Kona EV returning to form, in #6, with 7,623 units, while the veteran Nissan Leaf  surges to 7th, thanks to 7,511 units and the newcomer VW ID.4 started oficially its career in 8th, with 6,568 units and expect it to reach five-digit scores soon. 

On the PHEV side, the Best Selling model was again the Volvo XC60 PHEV (6,081 units), with Swedish maker winning its second 1-2 win in a row, as the Volvo XC40 PHEV (5,812) was the category runner-up model. Both Volvo's hit record scores last month, highlighting the good moment of the Swedish maker. 

On the YTD table, the Tesla Model 3 returned to the 1st place, and the 30,000 units advance it has over the #2 Wuling Mini EV should be enough to keep the tiny Chinese EV at bay during the next couple of months.

The Tesla Model Y has secured its Bronze Medal position, distancing itself from the #4 BYD Han EV, with the midsize Crossover-disguised-as-SUV now preparing its first assault at runner-up spot in June.

The first position change outside the podium happened in #6, with the Nissan Leaf jumping four positions (discounts do indeed help to move metal...), even allowing the veteran model to improve on its 2020 position (#7) and keep the Best Seller status in compact class (Where are thou, ID.3?...).

The BEV side had other models on the rise, like Hyundai Kona EV jumping 9 spots, to #8, with the Korean crossover now being the new king on the subcompact class (B-segment), while the Audi e-Tron joined the Top 10, recovering the Best Seller status in the full size class.

On the second half on the table, reference to the BMW 330e climbing to #18, with 11,798 units, which is less than one tenth of the Model 3 deliveries...  

After a long absence, we salute the return of the Chevrolet Bolt, in #20, with the GM EV scoring last month a record performance of 6,123 units.

Outside the Top 20, two models are set to join the table soon, the #21 Peugeot 208 EV continues knocking at the door, with the French hatchback now being 700 units behind the aforementioned Chevy Bolt.

Manufacturers: Tesla firm in #1

Tesla's March score (108,398 units) represented not only a new all-time high, but also the first time we see a six-digit score on the monthly table, consolidating the expectation that Tesla will end the year with over 800,000 units.

Looking at the EV maker numbers in more detail, one might say that both sides of the Tesla fence are right:

* Pro-Tesla analysts are right to say that the Tesla demand cliff is a myth, as deliveries have jumped 109% YoY, and expect them to continue at similar rates during most of the year, and possibly also during 2022. 

* But Anti-Tesla analysts are also right to say that competition is stealing share from Tesla, because while in absolute numbers the EV maker will continue to grow in the foreseeable future, that growth will come at the cost of ICE models, because Tesla's share within the plugin market is now dropping, as new models from the competition are being launched seemingly every day and the PEV market is growing faster than Tesla. In Q1 2020, Tesla had 19% share against the current 16%, and should lose a couple more percent points until the year end. (The same applies for BEV purists, Tesla had 29% of the BEV market in Q1 2020, now it has 25%).

But then, who is winning share YoY? 

There are a few, besides the obvious case of SGMW, that came out of nowhere to the currrent 9% share, the most unexpected for me is Mercedes, that now has 5% share against the 3% of 12 months ago, thanks to its long, and strong, lineup of PHEVs and the ever expanding BEV lineup (at this pace, they will run out of alphabet letters for their EQ range in about 2 years...), the once laggard Mercedes is starting to threaten its BMW arch-rival, with the three-pointed-star maker climbing another spot in March, to 6th.

Great Wall's ORA ever expanding lineup is also helping the Chinese maker to gain share, from the 1% of March 2020, to the current 3%, while little NIO has managed to survive in the shark tank and is gaining scale, now having 2% of the global plugin market, now that survival is assured, i believe now it is the time for the Chinese EV startup to adventure itself into overseas markets.

Finally, Ford has also increased its share, by 1%, thanks to the return to normal of the Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV and the addition of the Mustang Mach-E.

But let's return to last month performances, Volkswagen is recovering from a poor start of the year and climbed to 4th, with the same story applying to Renault and Hyundai, with the French maker up to #12, while the Korean jumped to #16.

Far from the spotlight, Toyota is slowly climbing the table, now in #14, thanks to the (slow) production ramp up of the PHEV version of its RAV4 Best Seller, with the Japanese maker registering a record 10,226 units last month. Do not rule Toyota out of the race just yet... 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to Porsche, that thanks to a record 6,077 deliveries in March, it is the new #21, less than 600 units away from a Top 20 spot, an outstanding performance for such a niche (and expensive) brand.

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Europe March 2021


Tesla Model 3 new #1 in hot market (16% share!)

The European passenger plugin market continues on the rise, having registered over 227,000 units in March (+169% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (7.6% BEV), pulling the 2021 PEV share to 15% (6.6% for BEVs alone).

This time growth came from both fields, with BEVs doubling their sales year-on-year, but PHEVs continue surging at a faster pace, having seen their sales jump by 264% YoY last month, confirming plugin hybrids as the major growth source for plugins in the first months of 2021.

With a higher than expected end-of-quarter peak, the Model 3 won its second Best Seller title in a row, confirming its good form this year.

The same can't be said about the remaining 2020 podium bearers, as that year winner Renault Zoe was only 4th in March, while the VW ID.3, Bronze medalist last year, continues to underperform, reaching a low 6th place last month...With VW's hatchback faltering, all eyes are now on the new ID.4 crossover, that had its first real deliveries month in March, ending the stage in #5, already above its slightly older (and shorter) sibling. A sign of things to come? 

Looking at March Top 5 Models:

#1 Tesla Model 3 – The sports sedan returned to form, by delivering 24,184 deliveries last month, a larger than expected high tide, allowing it to register 4 times more units than the runner-up Hyundai Kona EV. Regarding March, the Model 3 hade several 4-digit scores, namely in the United Kingdom (6,500 units), France (4,524), Germany (3,699), Norway (2,169), Italy (1,363) and Sweden and Austria, both with 1,192 units each.

#2 Hyundai Kona EV – The Korean crossover is already recovering from the pull forward stunt of the last months of 2020, something that others can't say the same, with the Hyundai EV reaching the runner-up place in February, no doubt thanks to its competitive range vs price ratio, with the distinctive crossover scoring 5,643 deliveries last month. In March, Germany was by far the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with 3,237 deliveries, followed by the United Kingdom (800 units), France (409) and Norway (349). 

#3 Volvo XC40 PHEV - The smallest of Volvo's PHEV lineup is now the the continent's favorite PHEV, as the Swedish carmaker sees their plugin hybrid versions as just another trimline in Europe, facilitating sales, especially of the XC40, that sits at the heart of the hot compact SUV category. In March, the Belgian-built Volvo scored 5,567 registrations, earning its 3rd Best Selling PHEV title in a row. The markets where the Volvo plugin was in high rotation were Sweden (1,192 units), the United Kingdom (900) and Germany (624 units). Without production constraints and currently experiencing strong demand, the compact Volvo is a strong candidate for the 2021 PHEV Best Seller title. 

#4 Renault Zoe – The 5,482 deliveries number show that the French hatchback is yet to recover from the last year end peak effort, having seen its registrations drop by in two digits last month, an even more worrying event, when we consider the context of doubling sales in the European BEV market. In any case, the main markets in March were the usual, with Germany (1,692 units) leading, followed by France (1,519), while Italy (721), was a distant 3rd

#Volkswagen ID.4 – Sitting in the vortex of the current hottest trends (Plugins and compact Crossovers/SUVs) much is expected from the new Volkswagen, especially considering that its ID.3 sibling hasn't really set the market on fire...The ID.4 doesn't have much margin for failure, so it was good to see it start its first real deliveries month in 5th, just 500 units behind the runner-up Hyundai Kona EV. With the ID.3 failing to run at the same pace of the Tesla Model 3, now its up for the ID.4 to save VW's honor in Europe. But back at last month performance, the German EV registered 5,104 units, with the biggest market being its homeland Germany, with 872 registrations, followed by Norway, with 856 units, and the United Kingdom (500).

Looking at the remaining March table, besides the disappointing performance of the VW ID.3, the highlights regard several record performances on the table, like the #7 BMW 3-Series PHEV scoring a record 4,957 units, the #10 Peugeot 3008 PHEV hitting a record 4,243 registrations, while the veteran VW e-Up hit a record 4,206 units, an amazing performance for the small EV, that can only be explained by the lower than expected sales of the ID.3, that is forcing the German maker to increase production of the cheaper (and less profitable) e-Up.

Still on the subject of record performances, and highlighting the great moment of Volvo, the XC60 PHEV scored another record score, with 4,189 units, slightly ahead of another record performer, the Peugeot 208 EV (4,098) and the #19 BMW X1 (3,876).

A mention also to the Nissan Leaf, that thanks to heavy discounts of its 62 kWh version, has jumped to 8th last month, with 4,708 units.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the Toyota RAV4 PHEV, with the Japanese maker continuing to ramp up the deliveries of its RAV4 PHEV model, reaching 2,575 units last month, a new record for the Japanese SUV and the same number of units registered as the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover apparently still in (slow) production ramp up. The Mini Cooper EV scored a record 3,324 units performance.

Finally, an interesting fact, if we sum all VW Golf cousins PHEV sales together (Seat/Cupra Leon + Skoda Octavia + Audi A3), we get almost 10,000 units, which added to the VW Golf PHEV registrations, we would reach some 14,000 PHEVs on these compact cars alone. 

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the main news was the Tesla Model 3 shooting for Number One, with the sports sedan having almost a 20,000 units lead over the #2 Volvo XC40 PHEV.

And with the remaining last year Best Seller competitors underperforming, the Renault Zoe is down 39% YoY, while the all-new VW ID.3 is just 12% above what the then veteran e-Golf had 12 months ago, one can already say that this Second Quarter will be a stroll around the park for the sports sedan, possibly securing enough advantage over the competition to allow it to manage a demand defection to the Tesla Model Y or volume surges in the competition tallies, now being the main favorite to win the 2021 Best Seller title in Europe.

But the Climber of the Month was the Hyundai Kona EV, that jumped 5 spots, to #5, with the Korean crossover now ambitionin a podium seat.

The BMW 330e also had a good month, climbing to 6th, but year-to-date, the BMW midsizer has about a third of the Tesla Model 3 sales, which says a lot about the impossible uphill battle that the future BMW i4 will have to face...  

On the second half of the table, the small VW e-Up continues to climb in the ranking, it's now in #13, just one position below another rising model, as the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape) jumped from #16 to #12 in March.

We had three models returning the table in March, with the most surprising being the Nissan Leaf, up to #16, while the VW Golf PHEV was up to #17 and the Mercedes A250e, last year Best Selling PHEV, jumped to #19.

Unlike the models ranking, where we already have a clear favorite, in the makers ranking, balance is the word, with the 3 top brands separated by just 700 units, as Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW all have 10% share, with the Wolsburg brand currently on top, but the differences are so small that anything can happen.

Below these three we have the #4 Volvo, with 8%, followed by Tesla (7%), while in tied in 6th, we have Peugeot and Renault, both with 6% share, with the first currently having a 34 units advantaged over its arch-rival. 

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan lives in another galaxy, having won a sizeable distance over the competition, and has seen its sales increase 47% over the first quarter of 2020, highlighting the fact that it won't have significant competition in the next few months, as the Tesla Model Y will only land in the second half of the year.

The Mercedes EQC (2,131 units last month) recovered the second spot, having surpassed the Polestar 2 in March, with the Sino-Swede now being some 400 units behind the Mercedes SUV (4,194 vs 3,792).

So far, the only other significant midsize BEV was the Jaguar i-Pace (792 units in March), but the BMW iX3 has finally started to be delivered in volume, with the midsize BMW delivering 566 units last month.

Will we see it surpass the Jaguar in the next couple of months?

BEV E/F-Segment / Full Size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable but its seemingly never ending growth seems to have finally stopped, with the Big Audi current 7,642 units representing an 8% sales drop YoY, but despite this, the Audi SUV seems destined to win another category title this year, with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X for the first half of the year, what they will recover in the second half of the year, shouldn't be enough to compensate for the drought in the first half, while the #2 model, the Porsche Taycan (1,778 units last month) is too niche to go head to head with the e-Tron in the sales charts.

Regarding the remaining competition, the Mercedes EQV Luxury Van is still in 3rd place, with 431 units, 41 more than the Audi e-Tron GT, but shouldn't be here for long, as the Audi e-Tron GT production ram-up should allow it to reach the podium soon, thus making a 1-2-3 lead for the VW Group.

Thursday, April 22, 2021

China March 2021

11% share!

Plugins are a hot item in China, having scored a near-record 211,000 units last month, jumping 244% regarding the same month last year, making it the second best month ever, only behind last December. 

Last month plugin share reached the two-digits mark for the first time ever, by hitting 11% (9.2% BEV), pulling the 2021 share to 10% (8% BEV), and considering January and February are China's weakest months, we can now safely assume that the local plugin market share will end North of the two-digits mark this year, and the total tally of the year will exceed 2 million deliveries!

After Europe, #EVDisruption is now reaching China... 

Looking at March Best Sellers were exacly the same as February, and in the same order, with the Wuling Mini EV leading the pack, followed by both Teslas in the remaining podium positions.

Here’s March Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

After a small break in February, the Wuling EV is back at full speed, scoring a record 39,745 units last month, resuming its long streak of records, and allowing it to reach the 3rd spot in the overall market, with the little Wuling selling some 270,000 units in 270 days, meaning that if the tiny four-seater continues to grow at this pace, a half a million score by the end of the year seems not only feasible, but likely. The Wuling EV is becoming a disruptive force in urban mobility, a true EV for the masses, and unlike what many might think, its success isn't just happening in the poorer regions of China, as the tiny EV is also selling well in places like Tianjin (3rd Best Selling EV), Guangdong (#2), or Fujian (#1), and like a certain 1959 model bearing the same name, or the original bug-named VW, the Wuling Mini EV is becoming a sort of icon for classless transportation, as the people buying it (mostly females, mostly under 35 year olds) are usually a hard to capture audience. This EV has a lot to become a game changer, and not only in China...


#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 25,327 units last month, allowing it to reach the 11th spot in the overall market, a rather surprising result in retrospective of past performances, and considering that MiC Model 3 are now being exported to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, we might start to see end-of-quarter peak deliveries in China, replicating the behavior of the US-made Model 3. Something we will no doubt have the opportunity to check in the next couple of quarters...

#3 – Tesla Model Y

Tesla's new baby hit 10,151 units last month, and while it’s not (yet) a Model 3-beating score, it means that the production ramp-up is going smoothly and should hit its peak during the second quarter of the year. Tesla’s midsize crossover future cruise speed in China is a question mark, while traditionally SUVs/Crossovers haven't sold as much as their sedan counterparts, the truth is that the market is leaning towards higher riding bodies, so the Model Y could surf the wave and outsell the Model 3 by some margin. 

#4 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Ora's ever-growing Cat Pack (the VW-Beetle inspired Punk Cat has just been presented at the Shanghai Auto Show), is becoming quite popular, and none of them has been as popular as the tiny Black Cat, that delivered 8,527 units in March, allowing the Great Wall model to continue in the forefront of the resurgence of City EVs and might reach new heights soon, say maybe...10,000 units-plus in April?.

#5 – BYD Han EV

The successful career of BYD’s luxury sedan in China has been resumed in March, by delivering 7,956 units, enough to beat the 2nd best selling full-size model (Li Xiang One) by a sizeable margin, as the big SUV ended some 3,000 units behind. The current poster-boy for BYD is expected to continuing thriving in the foreseeable future, keeping the category leadership with an iron fist.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in March, a mention to the rise and rise of the small Changan Benni EV, with 4,076 units, its 3rd record performance in a row, allowing the Toyota Yaris-like hatchback to reach the 9th position last month, and raising the question if we aren't witnessing the rise of a new star in the competitive Chinese EV market...Discuss.

Another model with surging sales is the new BMW iX3, 10th last month with a record 3,519 units, with the midsize SUV now being BMW's main bet in China, and the only other foreign model on the table, besides the Tesla siblings. 

Local startups continue to shine, and the highlight of the month belonged to Hozon's small Neta V, that scored a record 3,206 units, while in total we had 7 representatives from 6 different startups in the table, with the highest placed being the #7 Li Xiang One (4,900 units), this is creating an interesting phenomenon, while established Chinese makers (FAW, Dongfeng, etc) are apparently oblivious to the current NEV wave, it's smaller makers, like BYD, and the local startups that are filling the empty space. The most bizarre example is Geely, owner of Volvo and Polestar, two brands that are heavy on plugins, and inclusively Geely itself is leading plugin markets in places like Russia and Belarus, and yet, in its home market, it has less than 1% share...

Speaking of BYD, after a quick transition into the new Blade Battery in its lineup, the new policy is now starting to bear its first fruits, with the new BYD D1 people carrier showing up in #16, thanks to 2,796 units, its fourth record result in a row, while the new Qin Plus PHEV had its first volume month, allowing it to show up in #18, with 2,509 units.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the ramp-up of ORA's White Cat (2,406 units) and Good Cat (2,116), while the VW Magotan PHEV (Euro-spec Passat, but made in China) hit a record 2,352 units, and still on the Volkswagen stable, a mention to the ramp-up of the ID.4, that reached 990 units last month

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the Wuling Mini EV is the undisputed leader, and the same can be said about the runner-up Tesla Model 3, so unless something unexpected occurs, the top two positions are already taken for

Below it, the Climber of the Month was once again the Tesla Model Y, that jumped four positions, into #5, and this was the only change in the Top 10.

There wasn't also much to talk about on the second half of the table, the NIO ES6 climbed to #11, while the BMW iX3 joined the table, in #16, interestingly, all three climbers in this Top 20 were high end midsize SUVs...A coincidence?   

Just outside the Top 20, we have two models on the rise, with the #21 BYD D1 just 767 units behind the #20 Ora Good Cat, so the MPV might already join the table in April, while the small Leap Motor T03 could also reach the Top 20 soon, with the startup model only 1,074 units below the table.

Looking at the makers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (21%, down 1%) is in the leadership, while below it, Tesla (14%, up 2%) is now firmly in the 2nd spot, ahead of BYD (11%).

Below the podium, SAIC (7%, down 1%) is 4th, followed by the #5 Great Wall (6%) and the #6 NIO (5%)

Monday, April 19, 2021

Germany March 2021

Tesla Model 3 wins in March, but Volkswagen leads the way 

The German plugin market scored over 65,000 units last month, with both technologies rising fast, particularly plugin hybrids (+191% for BEVs and +278% YoY for PHEVs), with last month plugin share ending at 23% (10% BEV), pulling slightly up the yearly tally, to 22% (9.9% BEV), so this market sits firmly in The Disruption Zone.

And in a rebounding overall market (+36% YoY), petrol failed (+7% YoY) to profit from it, while diesel is helplessly in a hell hole (-5%), with its sales continuing to fall, even in the context of a recovering market.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, in March we had a surprise winner, with the Tesla Model 3 beating its Volkswagen arch-rival, the... e-Up! Wait, what?!?

Yep, by registering 3,599 units in March, its second record performance in a row(!), the veteran model (VW's city car is on the market for 10 years now, and its EV version exists since 2013), not only put to shame its larger siblings, namely the #5 VW ID.3, but was close (it ended just 100 units behind) from stealing the thunder from a record-setting Tesla Model 3...

Prost for the tiny EV, which is still my favorite VW, as it is the closest we have from the original VW Beetle concept: Cheap, no-frills and reliable transportation for das Volk.

In the 3rd spot we have another surprise, with the Hyundai Kona EV returning to form, thanks to a record 3,237 registrations, banking on its competitive km range per euro score to win its first monthly podium seat since November.

Below the podium Top Sellers, the 4th place went to another record setting Volkswagen, with the new Golf PHEV winning the Best Seller award in the PHEV category, with 2,792 units, while last year Best Seller, the Renault Zoe, had to settle with an 8th spot, with the French hatchback failing to follow the pace of the Model 3 and the VW armada that followed it.

The Mini Cooper EV jumped to 9th, thanks to a record 1,674 deliveries, thus making 7 BEVs in the in the Top 9, but below it, it's a sea of PHEVs, with the only exceptions being the #16 BMW i3, which reflects one if the current market trends, while the BEV market is concentrated (almost literally) in half a dozen models, the models choice in the plugin hybrid field is far greater and spanning through much a wider type of customers and needs, leading to a more diversified market.

One example is the fact that the VW Golf PHEVs cousin models are all present in the Top 20 (Audi A3 in #12, Seat Leon PHEV in #18 and Skoda Octavia in #19), while the VW ID.3 MEB platform siblings are still either in different stages of production ramp-up (VW ID.4 and Skoda Enyaq), just being presented (Audi Q4 e-Tron) or still under wraps (Seat/Cupra El-Born), and this exercise can be replicated in a number of other OEMs, true BEV takeover of the market will only be possible when pure-electric model choice is nearly as complete as PHEV or ICE models. No one-size-fits all recipe will work, wether some people like it or not.

Outside this Top 20, a mention to the continuous ramp-up of the Fiat 500e, now at 748 units, while two other models are also ramping up their deliveries, with the Opel Mokka EV now at 526 units, while the VW Tiguan PHEV had 548 deliveries.

Regarding the 2021 table, we now have the tiny VW e-Up on top, with a sizeable distance (1,229 units) over the rising Tesla Model 3, relegating the previous leader, the VW ID.3, to 3rd. We were expecting more, ID.3...

Another model on the rise was the Hyundai Kona EV, up 2 spots, to 4th, while the VW Passat PHEV climbed to #6, thus making 4 VW's in the Top 6.

On the second half of the table, the Mercedes E300e/de jumped three spots, to #11, and is now the only full size model in the table. 

Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, besides the Volkswagen models in the Top 20, we should mention the Audi A3 PHEV jumping from #20 to #15 last month, all while their Czech and Spanish cousins joined the table, with the Skoda Octavia PHEV jumping to #18, and the Seat Leon PHEV to #20.

But these weren't the only new faces on the table, as the Mercedes A250e re-joined the table,in #16, while the Mini Cooper EV slalomed its way through a forest of PHEVs to end the month in #17. 

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (18%, down 1%) is clearly leading its home market, followed by Mercedes (11%, up 1%) and BMW (9%), while #4 Audi (7%, down 1%) is not too far away.

Further behind, Hyundai and Renault, both with 5% share, seem unable to threaten the grip that the local heroes have on the German plugin market. 

Thursday, April 15, 2021

France March 2021


Tesla Model 3 #1 in France! 

In a red hot market, where BEVs jumped 183% YoY and PHEVs shooted 6-fold in March, plugin sales had their second best month ever, with 29,737 units, allowing the plugin share to reach 16% last month (8.5% BEV), pulling the YTD share to a record 14% (6.9% BEV), which is already a 3% increase over the 2020 result (11%), and the 20% share i predicted for the whole of this year looks well on target. 

So, this is what Disruption looks like... 

...And Disruption is on display on the last month Best Sellers table, with the highlight being the extraordinary performance of the Tesla Model 3, with the 4,524 deliveries allowing it to become the first foreign model to win Gold in France, with almost 3x as much units as the runner-up Peugeot 208 EV, but also allowing it to join for the first time the Top 10 in the overall market (it was 9th), AND being March's Best Selling Foreign model in France, period. 

This is a true historic moment, putting this into context to our US readers, this is like the VW ID.4 in a few months beating the Tesla Model 3 in the USA. Unimaginable, right? Well, that's what happened here to the once all-conquering Renault Zoe...

And adding insult to injury, the Zoe once again failed to win a podium seat, as the remaining podium positions were to the arch-rival Peugeot, with the small 208 EV winning Silver and the crossover 3008 PHEV taking Bronze, thanks to a record 1,571 units, beating the Renault models in both BEV and PHEV categories.

But not all were bad news for Renault, the #6 Renault Twingo EV managed to keep its Stellantis rival Fiat 500e at bay, while the compact Megane PHEV joined the table for the first time, in #19, thanks to a record 423 units.   

One of the problems that Renault has in its home market, is that it's holding on the fort almost by its own, as Mitsubishi is basically a non-entity in France, Nissan is living from (hard) discounting the Leaf, and the Dacia Spring is still in its first baby steps, while on the other side of the wall, the Stellantis conglomerate had 7 models from 5 different brands in the March Top 20, 3 (Peugeot 3008 PHEV, Peugeot 2008 EV and Jeep Compass PHEV) of them with record performances. They even allowed themselves to grant Opel an off month...Impressive stuff, isn't it? 

Elsewhere, a mention to the record score of the Mercedes GLC300e/de, with 778 registrations, while the Mini Cooper EV joined the table, in #16, thanks to a record 499 deliveries, and the VW ID.3 showed up in (a still discreet) #13, but Volkswagen has brighter news elsewhere, the VW Tiguan PHEV landed on the market immediately in #20, with 417 registrations in March, only 9 units ahead of another Volkswagen landing, with the much antecipated ID.4 starting its career in #21, with 408 units, just one unit ahead of the #22 VW Golf PHEV. Maybe one of the reasons for the ID.3 below par performances has to do with internal competition?

Still below the Top 20, a mention to the 360 deliveries of the Audi A3 PHEV, a new record for the nameplate, while the BMW X1 PHEV had 376 registrations, which could mean that the compact Beemer might show up on the table soon.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, once again the main news is the disruptive force of the Tesla Model 3, that shooted for the leadership, not only of the plugin market, but more importantly, on the overall midsize market, profiting from last month unusual high tide to secure the midsize leadership, with twice the amount of units of the runner-up Peugeot 508 (2,326 registrations). Funny enough, the French midsizer has 42% of its sales coming from their PHEV versions, which speaks volumes about the current electrification transition happening now.

Another model jumping positions is the Mercedes GLC300e/de, going up from #15 to #11. 

In the city car category, the Renault Twingo EV climbed one position and gained some distance from the #8 Fiat 500e.  

On the second half of the table, we now have the VW ID.3 up to #15, while March saw 3 models joining the table, with the Nissan Leaf in #18, the Mini Cooper EV in #19 and the Renault Megane PHEV in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the leader Peugeot dropped 4% in share, to 18%, but it is (still) enough to stay ahead of the runner-up Renault (15%, down 1%), while Tesla (9% share, up 5%) is now closing the podium, ahead of Kia and Volkswagen, both with 5% each.

As for OEMs, Stellantis is the major force, with a commanding 31% share, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance far behind, with only 16%, while the best foreign OEM is the Volkswagen Group, with 11% share.

Sunday, April 11, 2021

Netherlands March 2021

 Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.4 shine

The Dutch PEV market dropped 4% in March, to 4,834 plugin registrations, but that result wasn't all that bad, considering that the overall market fell even more (-18% YoY), placing last month PEV Share at 20% (9% BEV), pushing the year to date PEV share to 15% (5.6% BEV), which is still significantly down on last year result (25%), but already on par with the 2019 score (15%).

Considering that the first quarter of the year is always the weakest, and the last the strongest, to make this a fairer comparison, it's best to compare the current share with what was going on 12 months ago, and by doing so, we can see positive results, as the market share grew by 3% YoY (15% vs 12%) in Q1, although one must say that BEVs have seen their share fall (9% a year ago vs the current 5.6%), so the market's motor of growth are actually PHEVs...

Breaking down registrations between each plugin powertrain, BEVs recovered a bit, and are now responsible for 37%, a 5% recovery, but they are far from the 75%  of 12 months ago, and even further away from the final 82% of 2020, expect pure electrics to continue recovering ground throughout the year, but one thing looks certain, with BEVs gradually losing their fiscal incentives year after year, plugin hybrids are recovering their space in the market, highlighting just how sensitive to incentives the plugin market still is.

In March, the leader was the Tesla Model 3, scoring its first win since September, this time with 341 units, relegating the previous leader Volvo XC40 PHEV to the second spot, while in 3rd we have the VW ID.4, that after a surprise landing last December (#4, with 2,408 units), has finally started its regular career, and with a podium standing, while its sibling ID.3 has failed to show in the Top 20...

Outside the podium, in the 4th place we have a surprise, with the Ford Kuga PHEV scoring its best result since last July (179 units), while in #6 we have the BMW iX3 showing up for the first time on the table, thanks to a record 159 registrations, and the veteran Nissan "Abe Simpson" Leaf is teaching the young ones a thing or two ("Now, when i was a young boy, Abraham Lincoln showed up in my dreams and...Hey! Who stole my rear bumper?!?!?"), about sales and last month had its best result this year, with 134 units.

The second half of the table also had a few surprises, like the Mercedes A250e showing up in #12, with a record 101 registrations, and two Opel's in the table, with the SUV Grandland X PHEV in #14, with a record 95 units, while the small crossover Mokka EV landed in #17, with 83 units, a promising start for the attractive Opel. 

Speaking of new models, March witnessed the landing of two other nameplates that might show up on the Top 20 soon, with the Kia Sorento PHEV starting its career with 54 registrations, while the Mercedes EQA had its first 38 registrations in this market. After its older brother EQC discreet career on the market (insert short range comment), Mercedes hopes the EQA to become its volume mover on this market, where the three-pointed-star brand trails (way) behind its arch-rival BMW. 

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the two main candidates for the 2021 Best Seller prize have finally came out to play, with the Tesla Model 3 and Volkswagen ID.4 jumping to the 3rd and 4th positions, respectively. 

Another model climbing was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that jumped four positions, to #5, while the Renault Captur PHEV joined the table, in #12.

But the momentum belonged to BEVs, besides the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.4, the BMW iX3 also joined the table, in #17, while there were several pure electric models climbing positions, like the Kia Niro EV (up 2 spots, to #9), Volvo XC40 EV (up to #11), or the Polestar 2 (from #18 to #15). After starting the year with just 5 representatives, BEVs now have 8 in the Top 20, and they should be the majority by June...    

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo (17%, down 1%) is firm as the Number One brand, with BMW (14%, down 1%) in the runner-up position, while a distant Volkswagen (5%, up 2%) now closes the podium, ahead of Renault and Kia, both with 4%.