Friday, June 29, 2018

Global Top 10 May 2018

Image result for 2018 BAIC EC-Series
The EC-Series is flooding the Chinese streets

Models: Month 2 before TM3 Flood -  BAIC EC-Series climbs to #1

Registrations jumped 75% in May, to almost 160,000 units, the second best month ever, so the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), is in danger to be broken next month.

This positive start of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 598,000 units (+71% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.5% share, which makes more and more realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

In May, the BAIC EC-Series was the Best Seller, with 12,624 units (Year Best), dethroning  the Nissan Leaf on the 2018 ranking, that was up 90% over the same month last year. 

Third in April was the rising Tesla Model 3, with a record 6,551 units, that jumped 5 positions in the 2018 ranking, to Fourth, and with the predicted 20-25k set to be delivered in July, will join the podium soon.

Now, regarding the leadership, the Tesla Model 3 will have to go after the BAIC EC-Series, that if it keeps making five-digit performances (And i think it will), it will be hard to catch up.

One thing is certain, previously one thought that the 2018 title would be an easy win for Tesla, but now...It will be an interesting story between these two.

Other models shining in May were the BYD Qin PHEV, scoring 4,500 units (Year best), allowing it to climb to Fifth and become the Best Selling BYD, the SAIC Baojun E100, with 4,310 units, also year best, while the BAIC EX-Series delivered some 4,000 units, proving that the BAIC stable isn't a one-model-show, with other models also able to post significant volumes.  

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the #10 Renault Zoe is in danger of losing the Top 10 place, as it has the Mitsu Outlander PHEV and the BMW i3 lesse than 1,000 units behind, while the fast growing BYD e5 (3,885 units in May) and Zhidou D2 EV (4,262) are also not far behind.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics increased once again their lead (+2%) in May, now representing 63% of the total market, expect this score to be constantly improved throughout the year, to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 


Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
The one in the middle is said to flood the US charts in July...

Manufacturers:  Month 2 before TM3 Flood - BAIC gets close to Tesla and BYD

May signaled two significant changes, the most important being the return of BAIC to the podium, thanks to 19,589 deliveries (New all-time record), not only closing in on Tesla and BYD, but also making the 2018 title a three horse race, sure, Tesla is still the favorite, but things are getting more complicated every passing month for the Californian brand.

Volkswagen is on fire, breaking its record for the third time in a row(!), with almost 10,000 deliveries, allowing it to surpass Nissan and reach the Fifth Spot, while Roewe also posted a new record result, with 9,382 units.
Chevrolet rejoined the Top 10, in #9, thanks to 5,185 units (Year best), while Chery (5,370 units, year best), is moving on up, climbing to #11, being just 200 units behind the #10 Renault, so expect an entertaining race for #10 in June. 

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese are the unconstested leaders, with 46% (Up 4%) of all deliveries, while Germany (19%, down 1%) holds steady in Second Place, and the USA (13%, down 1%) saved its podium seat from Japan (12%, down 1%).

Thursday, June 28, 2018

Europe May 2018

Image result for 2018 Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe
"Keeping it in the Family"

Leaf and Zoe ahead of the pack

The European passenger plug-in market continues pushing forward, by registering some 29,000 registrations, up 38% regarding the same period last year and pulling the Year-to-date count to over 146,000 deliveries (+44%), while keeping the 2018 market share at 2.1% (2.0% in May), BEVs and PHEVs grew at the same pace (+38%) in May, with plug-in hybrids now having an advantage of 6,000 units. Will we see all-electrics bounce back in the second half of the year?


May repeated April’s Top 5, with BEVs continuing to own the top positions, the new Nissan Leaf leads the way, but this time the Renault Zoe came close, while the BMW i3, VW e-Golf and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV made up for the rest of the Best Sellers lineup.

After racing with the VW Passat GTE and the BMW 530e, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to score another Top 5 presence, while at the same time being the bestselling PHEV.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for 2018 white Nissan Leaf

#1 Nissan Leaf –The 2.0 version of the most common plug-in in the world won another Best Seller title in Europe, its third in a row, by registering 2,814 units (Up 90% YoY), and with the orders list still to be satisfied in a few countries, expect the Leaf to remain in #1 for the coming months. But back at May performance, the main markets were Norway (644 deliveries), UK (450), France (331), The Netherlands (264) and Portugal (220 units, new all-time record for a single model).

Image result for 2018 white Renault Zoe

#2 Renault Zoe – May’s 2,534 deliveries meant a 22% YoY growth for the French hatchback, giving its Japanese cousin something of a fight for the leadership, as Renault runs to satisfy all the Zoe orders, now that LG has enough batteries to provide the French automaker. As for individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 1,085 units, with other positive numbers coming from Germany (507 units), and Norway (167).   

Image result for 2018 white BMW i3

#3 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales have found their cruise speed (+2% YoY) in May, with 1,713 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory expected to grow output towards the end of the year, thanks to the upcoming 44kWh version, do not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its quirky looking EV sales performance in the short term. Looking at individual countries, Norway is once again leading sales (407 units), with Germany (320) and France (204) remaining as big absorbers of the BMW electric model.

Image result for 2018 white VW e-Golf

#4 VW e-Golf – The German hatchback continues to suffer from a common disease (Not enough batteries), but despite that, the BEV Golf collected another Top 5 presence, thanks to 1,547 deliveries, up 87% YoY. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s usual large contribution (622 units), Germany (366 units) became also a major contributor, with Austria (121 units) and The Netherlands (119) being significant contributors to the tally. Looking ahead, expect sales to continue strong until the end of the year, but after that, VW will probably place it in Sunset-mode, as a certain ID/Neo will be already in the oven...

Image result for 2018 white Outlander PHEV 

#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a rock, the Japanese SUV managed to outsell the more resourced (VW Passat GTE) and company car-friendly (BMW 530e) competition, thus securing another Best-Selling PHEV of the Month award and a Top 5 PEV presence in May, thanks to 1,483 registrations. Sales in May were down 13% YoY, but fear not, as a (slightly) revised version will arrive on Q3 2018, so the Mitsubishi plug-in SUV will continue to offer its unique mix of space, AWD and affordability (40.000€), with the added bonus of a larger electric range (28 mi/45 kms real world range) and more power (+15 hp) at hand, keeping it popular in markets like the UK (500 units in May), Norway (360) or Sweden (239). Going forward, the Japanese SUV is expected to keep wearing its Europe’s Best-Selling PHEV crown in the foreseeable future.

Image result for 2018 white BMW 530e
Winter is Coming for diesel luxo-barges

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the headlining news being the BMW 530e climbing to #9, thanks to 1,135 units, its third consecutive 1,000-plus performance. Underlining a positive month for BMW plug-in hybrids, the 330e midsize sedan jumped three positions, to #13, with 1,019 deliveries, up 61% YoY. It seems the Tesla Model 3 long shadow isn’t yet affecting the BMW midsizer, but how about 6 months from now?

Other changes in the Top 20 were the #17 Porsche Panamera PHEV climbing two positions, while the Mercedes C350e joined the Top 20, in…#20.

Outside the Top 20, the Mercedes E350e (705 units, new record), is climbing, with taxi drivers breaking their diesel addiction with the Mercedes PHEV. 

All these PHEV models (BMW 530e & 330e, Porsche Panamera PHEV, Mercedes E350e...) underline a growing trend, where diesel luxo-barges are being replaced by their PHEV relatives. 

A final reference for the revised BMW i8, that with 215 deliveries, had its best result in 26(!) months. 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (18%, up 2%) is in the lead, thanks to the aforementioned good performances of its PHEVs, with the runner-up Volkswagen (14%), losing a bit of ground to the leader, while Nissan (10%) is keeping the Bronze medal, with its cousin Renault (9%) close to the podium positions.

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Austria May 2018

Image result for VW e-Golf Austria

VW e-Golf #1

Austrian plug-in sales are up 40% this year, to some 3,600 new Plug-ins, placing the PEV Share at record heights (2.4%). 

The good thing about this market is that it is a BEV-heavy market, with all-electric cars representing 71% of sales. When governments play the incentives cards right, good things like these (Large BEV share and growth) happen.

Looking at the models ranking, the VW e-Golf is firm in the leadership, with the German hatchback already surpassing last year performance (668 units) in just 5 months...And they are production constrained! Imagine if they weren't...

The Renault Zoe (+10% YoY) is in Second Place, with the BMW i3 closing the podium, despite slowing sales  (-14% YoY).

In a 100% BEV Top 5, the Nissan Leaf is now Fourth, thanks to the new generation, and could remove the BMW i3 from the last place in the podium soon.

The Best Selling PHEV is the Mercedes GLC350e, in #6, with 138 units, but the #8 Porsche Panamera PHEV is dangerously close, only 16 units behind, so the German Sports Sedan can overcome the Merc SUV sometime soon.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen is ahead, with 25% share, followed by BMW (17%), and Renault (15%).

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Slovakia May 2018

Image result for Nissan Leaf 2018 slovakia

Nissan Leaf #1 in Hot Selling Slovakia

The PEV market in Slovakia continues as hot as ever, with sales up 82% YoY, to 250 units until May, with the 2018 PEV share now at a record 0.6%. 

The Nissan Leaf is by far the Best Selling car in the country, with 45 units, while the remaining positions in the podium go for Audi, with the A3 and Q7 e-Tron models tied in Second Place, with 19 units, signaling the first real year of Audi in this niche.

In the manufacturers ranking, Nissan is leading, with 18%, with Audi in Second (16%, highest share in the world) and BMW (11%) in Third.


Friday, June 22, 2018

Portugal May 2018

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal
Renault Zoe: An increasingly common sight in Lisbon

Nissan Leaf goes after #1 in (almost) Record Month

PEV Sales continue on the fast track in Portugal, with May close to register a new record month, with 738 deliveries (3.1% PEV share, up 163% YoY), keeping the 2018 Plug-in Share at a record 2.7%, so there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3-4% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market is known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so much), but even here, these are historic times, with diesel sales down 9%, with May registering a meagre 51% share for the troubled fuel, while all others increased their sales. At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised if diesel sales would be dead in Portugal by 2024/25... 

Last month brilliant result had a strong tailwind from the Nissan Leaf, as the 220 deliveries became a new all-time monthly record for a single model, as the local delivers the long waiting list for the Japanese hatchback, said to be close to 900 units a few months ago.

With this surge in sales, the Leaf is closing in fast on the leader Renault Zoe, which incidentally, had its worst result of the past 6 months. Will we see the Nissan BEV overcome the French cousin next month?

Moving on, the BMW i3 jumped three positions, to Sixth, thanks to 44 sales, a new record for the German hot hatch, with the particular allure of all units being of the BEV variety.

One importer that seemed to have woken up to plug-ins is Volkswagen, with the Passat GTE delivering a record 30 units, leaping 7 positions to #11, while the Golf GTE also had a record result, with 30 deliveries, allowing it to joint the Top 20, in #18.

Still, Volkswagen only has 6% share in Portugal, far from the 14% it gathers in Europe, so there's a lot of space to grow...

...Speaking of manufacturers, in the respective ranking, BMW (23%) is on top, followed by Renault (18%), in Second Place, while Nissan (15%) is in the last place of the podium, closing in on its French cousin.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Tesla Model 3 - July 2018

Image result for many Tesla Model 3

With Tesla said to wait for July to hit the 200k registrations mark in the US, one wonders how many Model 3 units Tesla had in stock transit in order to do so, while no one really knows the final numbers, if nothing else, because June hasn't ended yet, one thing is certain, the thousands stocked during June and late May will all be delivered in July, resulting in a historic flood of deliveries that month, but the question i would like to make is:

How many Model 3's will be delivered in July? 



Always an optimistic, i predicted some 35k deliveries...

Our reader Illia said 23k.

And how about you?

Australia December 2017

Image result for Tesla in Australia

Tesla Wins Australia

Yes, you have read it right, this is the full year count of Australia in 2017, with a six months delay, but given the size of the Australian automotive market, it is worthy of notice.

2.424 plug-ins were sold in 2017, up 77% YoY, beating the 2015 record (1,740 units), and placing the PEV Share at 0.2%, a significantly lower level than the neighboring New Zealand.

Looking at the models ranking, the three times Best Seller ('14-'16) Mitsu Outlander PHEV been displaced from the two top spots, leaving the road open for Tesla to make a 1-2 win, with the American brand doubling sales regarding 2016 and the Model X winning the 2017 Best Seller trophy, but failing to beat the all-time sales record, still in the hands of the Outlander PHEV (895 units, back in 1814 2014).

In the remaining Top 5 positions, the Mercedes C350e outsold the BMW i3, thanks to a personal best 212 deliveries.

In the manufacturers ranking, there was really no competition for Tesla, with 54% share, finally winning its first Manufacturers title, after two consecutive Silver medals, followed by the six times winner (2010, '11, '12, '14, '15, '16) Mitsubishi (15%), while BMW (12%) managed to secure the last place of the podium for the third time in a row, thanks to its extensive lineup, beating Mercedes (11%) in the race for the Third position.

Hat tip to Stuart, for the help getting the numbers

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Norway May 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 Nissan Leaf Norway

King Leaf

After March's perfect storm of records, the PEV market in Norway slowed down, but still, with 5,515 units (+27% YoY) and 42% share last month, one cannot say that this market is in some kind of trouble.

Due to a less impressive performance last month, where Plug-ins just got 42% share, the fuels mix in May showed gasoline cars in the lead (26% of all sales, vs 28% in May '17), while BEVs were Second, with 22% share (+49% YoY), with PHEVs responsible for 20% of the total market, while on the other hand, diesel-powered cars scored a low 18% share (It was 26% twelve months ago), with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs.

At this pace, Diesel will be dead in Norway by 2020/21.

Looking at May Top Sellers, the new Nissan Leaf continues on top, but has saw the VW e-Golf (622 deliveries, best result in 7 months) get closer, nevertheless, the first signs of June are saying that the Leaf will present another big result, so expect the Japanese hatchback to win a fifth consecutive Monthly Best Seller award in June.

The remaining places went for the aforementioned BMW i3, closing the podium, while two PHEV SUVs made up for the rest of the Top 5, with the Mercedes model performing a new record result, with 363 units.

Looking at the YTD ranking, the most important news were the VW e-Golf climbing to Second Place, while the Tesla Model S also rose one position, to Fifth.

But the Climber of the Month was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, jumping three places, to #6, while two other SUVs had their glory moment, with the aforementioned Mercedes GLC350e climbing to #9, and the BMW X5 PHEV joining the Top 20, in #17, thanks to 174 deliveries, the nameplate best performance ever since it landed, three years ago.

A mention for the Audi A3 e-Tron, registering 137 units, a new year best, which together with other positive performances in other markets, seems to indicate that Audi is pushing once again the production of its compact PHEV. 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Nissan is in the lead (17%, down 1%), but is closely followed by BMW (15%, up 1%), Volkswagen (14%) and Volvo (13%), so the Japanese hatchback will need to continue to be on top of its game to remain with the Gold Medal.


Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share close to 50%, the PEV market continues to merge with the mainstream market, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have a balanced mix, with 3 BEVs, 2 PHEVs, 4 HEVs and one ICE model, Toyota is pushing their hybrids, managing to put 4 models in this Top 10, and the Yaris in Third..

BEVs took the top two places, with the best selling Plug-in hybrid (Mercedes GLC350e) being only Fifth, and the Best Selling ICE (Skoda Octávia) model showing up only in #10

With regular ICE models (close to be) wiped out from the Top 10, will it be possible to for plug-ins to outsell HEVs and make it a 100% plug-in Top 10 in June?