Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Global Top 20 June 2019

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Models: Model 3 shines and BAIC EU-Series climbs to #2

Registrations grew 67% YoY in June, to 265.000 units (2nd best result ever), mostly thanks to the Tesla high tide and the pull-forward of low range Chinese EVs, that now lost access to subsidies, pulling the year to date count to over 1.1 million units, with the 2019 PEV share climbing to 2,4% (3,3% in June). 

BEVs grew faster than the plugin average (+104% vs 67%), allowing them to frankly outsell plugin hybrids, with all-electrics having 76% of the plugin market last month (73% in 2019). At this pace, it won't be long that PHEV's will be limited to less than 10% of the plugin market... 

This month the big news were the Tesla Model 3 reaching a new all-time record for a single model (39.632 units in June), and the rise to the runner-up spot of the BAIC EU-Series, thanks to a personal best 17.916 registrations, with the Chinese sedan jumping two positions in two months.

The Renault Zoe climbed another spot, to #7, thanks to a year best 4.990 deliveries, with the Zoe 1.0 ending its career in grand style, while the evergreen Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV jumped two positions, to #5, scoring almost 6.000 units, its best result since December '15, with the Japanese SUV securing the Best Selling PHEV & SUV titles.

In the second half of the table, the climbers of the month were the #18 Baojun E-Series, jumping 2 positions, thanks to 4.566 registrations, its best result in 12 months, no doubt due to pull forward deliveries, before the end of subsidies, while the Tesla Model X jumped to #16, thanks to 5.603 units, a new year best.

Finally, a mention to the #21 Changan Eado EV, that is just 300 units below the #20 Toyota Prius PHEV, with the Chinese sedan possibly becoming the 17th BEV on the table soon.

Manufacturers: Tesla jumps into #1

June saw Tesla finally surpass BYD, thanks to a best ever performance of 48.788 units, while the Chinese maker had a somewhat "meh" result, with 24.000 units, being inclusively beaten by BAIC (26.052 units, new YB), that jumped three positions into #3, with Tesla now being chased by a pack of three (3!) Chinese manufacturers. 

We have to go down to #5 to see the first Legacy OEM, BMW, but if we count only BEV * registrations, then Nissan becomes the best selling legacy, in #4, with only one other established maker (Hyundai, in #8), in a sea of Chinese makers...With Tesla on top.

Disruption, anyone?

Looking elsewhere, the second half of the table saw Kia jump three positions, to #11, while Changan did even better, shooting six positions, to #12, thanks to a record 12.562 units.

Finally, Dongfeng returned to the Top 20, in #19, thanks to 6.513 units a new Year Best.

* - Breaking down the OEM sales that sell both BEVs and PHEVs, we can see that Chinese have 66%-plus share of BEVs, with their BEV share rising every month, while legacy OEMs (Hyundai excepted) have a low share (a little more than a third) of BEV sales.

Once again, Chinese makers are reacting faster to the increasing BEV trend in the market.

Monday, July 29, 2019

Europe June 2019

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Tesla high tide

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 47,000 registrations in June (+24%), with the PEV market growing 34% in 2019, a great performance considering the stagnating performance (-3%) of the overall market.

In June, while PHEVs had a horrible month (-38% YoY, worst drop since 2014), all-electrics had some 34,000 deliveries (+98%), having been responsible for 73% of all plugin sales last month (66% YTD), with the BEV share at 2.3%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 3.2%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

Looking at other fuels, diesel sales continue its never-ending dive (-21% YoY), with its share dropping to 31%.

The big news in June was the expected Tesla high tide, with the Model 3 scoring another 5-digit performance, while both the Model S & X had their best results in 2019.

Interestingly, despite the landing of the Tesla Model 3, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers had 25%-plus growth rates, meaning the Model 3 isn’t drying sales from other EVs, but helping them to thrive.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Tesla Model 3 – After the March deliveries peak, the posterchild for electromobility had its 2nd deliveries peak in Europe, with 11,604 deliveries, with the sports sedan still benefitting from the reservations backlog, with some markets already getting the SR+ versions, while in other countries, like Norway, demand is high enough to be still delivering the AWD versions, so expect another backlog-driven peak in September, so we should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020. But back at June, looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in Norway (3,012 units, best-selling vehicle in the overall market), Netherlands (2,487, new record and best-selling vehicle in the overall market), Germany (1,336), and France (1,097).

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#2 Renault Zoe – The 4,881 deliveries of June signaled a new year best and a 43% growth rate for the French hatchback, an impressive performance, considering the much improved “new” Zoe and the upcoming Peugeot 208 EV (and Opel Corsa EV, etc), are just a few months away. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,845 units), and in Germany (1,020 units), with the surprise being once again Italy (350 units), with Renault being the main benefitter of the new local incentives.

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#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The stainless steel Japanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 3,580 registrations in June (up 67%!), continuing to be popular in the UK (650 units), but the new #1 market for the Outlander is now Germany, with 915 registrations, with Norway (540) being the third big market. The success of this PHEV in the BEV-friendly environment is remarkable, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave (possible answer: until 2021, when the Tesla Model Y and VW ID Crozz finally land), although, with no direct BEV competitor landing soon, the Mitsubishi model could still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.

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#4 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales were up 26% in June, to 2,520 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (714 units), Norway (453) and the UK (350) were the main markets. Looking into 2019, expect the Star Wars-inspired EV to continue growing, being a regular face in this Top 5.

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#5 Volkswagen e-Golf – Volkswagen’s electric Golf managed to reach the 5th spot in June, with 2,246 units, up 55% YoY, an amazing performance, considering the Wolfsburg Mother Ship has entered in full-ID-mode, advertising the new BEV family like if it didn’t had already one successful model in the market. But the e-Golf is here and still selling strong, profiting from the strong name recognition, with the German EV main markets in June being Norway (798 deliveries), Germany (635), and the UK (300).

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i-Pace: an expensive beauty


Looking at the 2019 ranking, if the podium positions continue stable, the main news was the BMW i3 surpassing the Nissan Leaf and reaching the 4th spot, with the Japanese hatchback dropping two spots in two months.

The Nissan hatchback really needs a shot of the 62 kWh version to recover, although one questions if the new version isn’t too little, too late.

The Jaguar i-Pace was up to 10th, becoming the 7th BEV in the Top 10, and with the #9 Volvo XC60 PHEV just 176 units ahead, it shouldn’t take long for the British Sports SUV to climb another position and become the Best Selling midsize premium SUV, a title that should remain with the Jag until the landing of the Tesla Model Y.

On the second half of the table, there were several changes, the Audi e-Tron continues to climb positions, with the German SUV up two positions, to #12, while the Kia Niro PHEV climbed to #14 and the Smart Fortwo EV reached the #16 spot.

There was a new entry in the Top 20, with the Tesla Model S resurfacing at #18 (12th BEV in the Top 20), thanks to 1,670 units, and although Tesla’s flagship deliveries were down 21% YoY, it was its best performance in 2019, so it seems the veteran sports sedan has regained enough demand to sustain a Top 20 position this year.

The same can be said about the Tesla Model X, that jumped to #21, just 65 units below the #20 Volvo XC90 PHEV, thanks to 1,118 deliveries, a new year best, but comparing with the same month of 2018, deliveries were down 39%, a steep fall, and while the reason for the Model S drop is home grown (the Model 3 is diverting sales from it), the drop of the Model X has to be found elsewhere, as the Osborne-effect of the Model Y alone does not explain this large drop, so yes, Tesla demand can be diverted into other EVs, if they exist, of course.  

Below the Top 20, we should notice the good performance of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 795 registrations last month, a near-record performance for the plugin E-Class, placing the nameplate just 300 units from the Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (17%, up 2%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (13%, down 1%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), in the 3rd spot, with Hyundai and Mitsubishi not far behind, with 8%.

Thursday, July 25, 2019

Australia H1 2019 (draft)

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Outlander PHEV leads the ranking (warming up the seat until the Model 3 landing)

Some 2.600 plug-ins were sold so far this year, almost doubling the number of sales YoY, and placing the PEV Share at a record 0.5%, so one could say that Australia is (finally) warming up to plugins, although their New Zealand neighbors are already at 2%, so... 

Looking at the models ranking, the three times Best Seller ('14-'16) Mitsu Outlander PHEV is currently in the lead, with 823 units, improving 50% on its last year performance, while the Hyundai Kona EV had great start here, jumping immediately to the runner-up spot, with over 400 deliveries.

The Tesla Model X, previous winner of the last two editions, is now 3rd, suffering from significant losses, while its older sibling, the Model S, saw demand drop by 52% and is now 5th, with the sports sedan being particularly affected by the iminent arrival of the Model 3, that should disrupt this market and jump into the leadership in a few months (September?)    

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Italy June 2019

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Tesla and Zoe shine in hot market

The recent incentives approval has put the Italian PEV market finally on the move, with sales growing 74% YoY in 2019 (0,7% PEV share), while June saw the plugin market hit 1,1%, helped by a regressing (-4%) overall market. 

Will plug-ins finally cross the 1% threshold? 

Well, it has been a long time coming, but it seems Italy will finally end this year above the all-important 1% mark, and with FIAT launching a new 500e in its home market, 2020 will surely see exponential growth on top of this.

But back at June 2019, looking at the best selling models, the Renault Zoe is the surprise leader, with the French hatchback taking full profit of the new incentives to jump into #1.

The hot Tesla Model 3 was up to #2, with a record 372 units, climbing another step.

The remaining Tesla models also had record months in June, with the Model S delivering 55 units, allowing it to jump 4 spots, to #13, while the Model X was up to #15, thanks to a record 44 units.

In increasingly BEV-friendly market (BEVs in June represented 79% of sales, against 67% in the total of 2019), the Hyundai Kona EV is jumping positions, with the Korean crossover jumping two positions in June, to #9, thanks to 98 registrations.

quirk of this market is the popularity of the Smart nameplates, with the Fortwo in #4, while the Forfour is #8, with the latter climbing one position last month. The Van-with-Windows Nissan e-Evalia  is also a surprising presence, in #18.  

Renault (18%) is leading the makers ranking, but Tesla (17%) is right behind, while Smart is 3rd, with 13% share, its highest standing anywhere, ahead of the #4 Mini (12%). 

Monday, July 22, 2019

Austria June 2019

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Tesla Shines in BEV takeover

The Austrian plug-in sales are up 34% this year, to some 6.000 new Plug-ins, placing the PEV Share to record heights (3,4%). 

In what was already a BEV-friendly market, with all-electric cars usually representing 60-70% of plugin sales, we are now witnessing a true BEV takeover, with fully electric vehicles representing 82% of this year sales (87% in June). 

When governments play the incentives cards right, good things like these (Large BEV share and growth) happen.

On the other hand, PHEV sales are falling fast, with registrations down 12% this year (-34% in June), could this be the first relevant market to effectively make plugin hybrids redundant?

Tesla plays a major part in this surge, with the Tesla Model 3 in a different league regarding the remaining EV competition, having been #16 last month in the overall market, thanks to 346 deliveries in June, which was still a "meh" result for the sports sedan, after the 703 units of March. Still, with 1,454 units and 24% of the PEV market, no one is complaining.

The BMW i3 is in Second Place, while a slipping the Renault Zoe closes the podium.

With the other two Tesla nameplates also had a chance to shine in June, with the Model S delivering 80 units and the Model X, 43 units, which were their best results in over 2 years (we have to back to March '17, with the Model S scoring 110 units and the Model X, 60), allowing both nameplates to jump positions in the ranking, to #8 in the case of the Model S, and #14 in the case of the Model X.

Another model climbing positions is the Audi e-Tron, up 3 spots to #10, allowing an amazing 100% BEV Top 11 (Not even Norway has something like this), with the Jaguar i-Pace closing the pack, in #11.

The Best Selling PHEV is the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, in #12, so it seems that in this market, the Japanese SUV couldn't keep up the pace of the BEV armada. Interestingly, of the 7 PHEV models here, 5 are SUV/CUVs...

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is (way) ahead, with 29% share, followed by BMW (13%), while Volkswagen and Hyundai, both with 9% share, run for the last place in the podium.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

 VW Passat
Tesla Model 3
Skoda Superb
Mercedes C-Class
BMW 3-Series

Looking at the midsize vehicles general ranking, the Model 3 was up to the 2nd spot, with the leader VW Passat not that far away, so it is still in firing range of the Tesla Midsizer.

In other kind of markets, more PHEV-friendly, the upcoming PHEV version of the Passat could help it to keep the Model 3 at bay, but on this case...Not really.

So, one can say that it's up entirely to the Model 3 to win this category in Austria.