Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Global Top 20 May 2020

Hyundai's Hot-Selling Kona Electric Updated For 2020 | CarBuzz
Kona EV: Is Hyundai's electric crossover finally ready to fulfil its potential?

Models: Tesla Model 3 rules recovering market

Registrations were down 23% in May, a slight recovery from the 30% drop in April, while the YTD numbers are now down 14% regarding the same period last year, with 718.000 registrations

If in isolation these numbers aren't exactly positive, comparing with the overall automotive market, numbers are even worse than in the plugin niche, with sales down 33% in May and 30% this year, because of this, May's PEV share repeated April's result (2,8%),keeping the 2020 plugin share at 2,7%,which is already above the 2,5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the gravity that the subsequent economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

In May, BEVs dropped faster than plugin hybrids (-28% for BEVs, -9% for PHEVs), but despite that, the BEV/PHEV breakdown remained stable at 67% BEV, 33% PHEV. 

With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in May, more than tripling the sales of last month #2, the GAC Aion S. with 3.892 deliveries.

If the podium positions seem secure for now, but below them, the BMW 5-Series is running after the #4 VW e-Golf, with only 560 units separating both.

But there is more action on the top half of the table, with the Hyundai Kona EV surpassing the Audi e-Tron and reaching #8, with both the Hyundai crossover and the Audi EV now going after the #7 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with the Japanese SUV possibly losing 3 postions at once in June, as even the rising #10 GAC Aion S (3.892 units in May, new Year Best) has also a shot at surpassing it.

Other models on the rise are the BAIC EU-Series climbing to #14, while the NIO ES6 joined the table, in #16, just like the #20 Volvo XC60 PHEV, that recovered its spot on the table. 

Outside the Top 20, and while the highly expected Tesla Model Y doesn't join the table soon (in June?), we see two Chinese EVs getting ready to get there, with SAIC's Baojun E-Series (7.798 units, 2.447 of them last month) and the Li Xiang One (7.666; 2.148) are likely to join the table soon.

Manufacturers: Tesla and BYD shine

May saw Tesla win another monthly Best Seller title, more than doubling the result of the #2 in May, BYD, with the Chinese maker repeating April's runner-up spot...Is BYD returning to the good old days? 

One thing is certain, the Silver medal of the #2 BMW is looking pretty shaky, with the #3  Volkswagen shortening slightly the distance (683 units separate both makers) to it, while BYD is looking also to kick out BMW from the runner-up spot in a couple of months...

Others makers on the rise are Audi, than jumped two positions in one month, to #6, displacing Renault to #7, this was a terrible month for the Renault-Nissan Alliance, as all three brands dropped in the ranking, showing the real need for fresh models in their showrooms, as their 3 Best Sellers are getting long on the tooth, if counted together, they already have 23 years of activity on the market, making an average age of over 7 years, so the Nissan Ariya and Renault Mégane PHEV (among others) are badly needed. 

The Alliance also needs to do something about China, if Renault always had problems to affirm itself in the largest global automotive market, it is hard to understand why Nissan is acting so passively there. 

In other news, the Korean Kia was up one spot, to #10, while on the second half of the table, GAC (4.254 units, new Year Best) climbed to #14, while NIO joined the table, in #18. 

Outside the Top 20, there are a few Chinese brands preparing to join the table, and in the middle of them, we find Ford (hey, remember me?) also trying to return to the table, with the Dearborne maker now less than 1.000 units behind the #20 Porsche, with the American brand scoring a record performance last month (2.624 units), thanks to the success of its new Ford Kuga PHEV.

Monday, June 29, 2020

Europe May 2020

Novo Renault Zoe custa menos 1200 euros e tem autonomia para 395 ...

Renault Zoe is the new #1 

After a Covid lockdown-derived drop in April (-16% YoY), the European passenger plug-in market is back in black, having registered 46,800 registrations in May (+23%), a great performance considering the overall market is still recovering (-57% in May), placing last month plugin share to 7.5% share (3.8% BEV), leaving the 2020 PEV share at 7.8% (4.3% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019.

Will we see Europe's plugin market share end 2020 in two digits? Now THAT would be something to write about... 

With May representing a transition month, as supply chains recover from the lockdowns, the Renault Zoe was last month Best Seller, profiting from the lack of fresh units of the Tesla Model 3, that limited the sports sedan performance in May.

Interestingly, we have a 100% Top 5 in May, this being only the second time it happens this year. 

Looking at May Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The 3,712 deliveries in May signals the return to form from the French hatchback, with the Renault EV winning its 3rd Best Seller award this year (the first having been January and February), with the main markets being France (1,165 units), Germany (896) and Italy (524). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue sharing the next 3 Best Seller trophies with the Tesla Model 3, until September, when a certain VW ID.3 lands... 

#2 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf won its second silver medal this year, scoring 2,488 units last month, the veteran model demand continues immune to the long shadow of the ID.3, with Volkswagen milking everything it can from it, at least until its successor effectively lands, next September. Regarding May, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (1,153 units), Norway (610) and the Netherlands (221).

#3 Tesla Model 3 – Limited by the lack of fresh units, the electromobility posterchild performance this time was limited to just 2,278 deliveries, ending the month only in 3rd. Expect the Californian to go after the Zoe in June, thanks to fresh units coming from the US. Back to May, the UK was by far the best market for the Tesla nameplate, with 852 deliveries, followed by Germany (244) and France (219). 

#4 Hyundai Kona EV - The Korean electric crossover was an immediate hit among European buyers, that caught Hyundai completely off-guard ("now, where will we find batteries for all these orders?!?"), originating thousands-long waiting lists, and limiting the success of the Kona EV to just 7th in 2019. With Hyundai now making the Kona EV in Europe (in Nosovice, Czech Republic) and the battery strain now solved, registrations are already jumping, to 1,824 units, allowing it to win its first Top 5 presence in 2020, with its main markets being Norway (443 units), Germany (371), France (351) and the Netherlands (212). With several thousands of orders still to be satisfied, Hyundai is now determined to end it, so expect the Korean crossover to become a familiar face in this Top 5 during the coming months.  

#Audi e-Tron – The big Audi continues to impress, with May registering 1,687 units, although one wonders for how long can Audi keep the e-Tron pace at this level, considering that these uncertain times aren't the best for models nearing six-figure prices. This time the biggest market for the German crossover was Germany, with 583 units, with the usual bread and butter market, Norway, now being relegated to 2nd, with 579 units, with the UK following, with 200 units registered.

Novo Kuga é o primeiro plug-in da Ford | Auto Drive
Ford Kuga PHEV: A future Best Seller?

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news were the Renault Zoe recovering the leadership from the Tesla Model 3, but with only 462 units separating both, this race will have another exciting chapter in June, as the Tesla sedan will try to remove the Renault model from the leadership.

Another relevant position change was the Audi e-Tron climbing to 4th, surpassing the previous SUV default choice, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and the Japanese SUV might lose more positions soon, as the Nissan Leaf is just 408 units behind.

A few positions behind, the VW Passat GTE was up one spot, to #9, at the expense of the BMW 330e, that desperately needs the station wagon version to recover its sales (532 last month), as in May, it not only lost to the stratospheric Model 3 (2,278 units), but also to the aforementioned Passat GTE (1,167), the Mercedes C300e/de (763) arch-rival, and even the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins (981) have managed to beat it...

In the second half of the ranking, we should mention that the Kia Niro EV was up one spot, to #13, while the BMW X5 PHEV climbed to #16.

We have two (not so) new faces in the table, with the Mercedes E300e/de family returning to the Top 20, in #19, while the veteran Audi A3 PHEV is experiencing a second youth, returning to the table after a two year absence.   

Outside the Top 20, the Ford Kuga PHEV (euro-spec Ford Escape), scored an amazing 1,620 units in May, becoming May's Best Selling PHEV, and we should see it soon in the table, becoming Ford's first model in the Top 20 since...well, ever!

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with Tesla (9%, down 1%) hanging on to the throne, slightly ahead of Volkswagen and Renault, both having 9% each, while BMW (8%, down 1%) is running slightly behind, so we currently have four manufacturers running for #1...Now, that's what i call an entertaining race!

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and won't have significant competition until next year, as the Polestar 2 will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker would already be happy if it got a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only be when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2, but has seen its sales drop by 45% YoY, but it was still enough to beat the #3 Mercedes EQC in May (401 units vs 333), so Mercedes needs to ramp up production even further, if it wants to beat the Jaguar and reach Silver.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron recent domination of the segment is proof that Teslas aren't unbeatable, you just need competitive products to get there. 

Your turn, Tesla. And while cutting prices and incremental range updates will surely help, what we all want to see is some love on both Model S & X, revamping the design, inside and out, while keeping the 100 kWh battery with a low price, and adding a new 120 kWh version...Call it Plaid, Battlestar Galactica (my favorite), or whatever you wish to call it...But make it. 

As months pass by, the competition becomes stronger, last month the six-figure (and still ramping up) Porsche Taycan surpassed the Tesla Model S, with the German Sports Sedan doubling the registrations (500 units in May) of the Tesla flagship (246).   

The Model S sales in 2020 are down 26%, while for the same period, the e-Tron sales jumped 123%, which says a lot...

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Slovakia May 2020 (Draft)

SKODA Start Production of EV CITIGO iV in Bratislava Plant

Local heroes lead hot market

Despite the pandemic and the dog days of the local automotive marke (-38% YoY), the PEV market in Slovakia is on fire, with sales up 190% this year, with the PEV share in May reaching 1.6%, in line with the 2020 PEV share. 

And don't think this is thanks to tax dodging PHEVs, as 62% of all plug-ins sold this year were BEVs...With all-electrics growing faster (+245%) than plugin hybrids. This is a market that not only is growing fast, but it is doing so with a BEV prevalence. Keep up the good work, Slovakia!

Essential to this brilliant result are the locally made Skoda Citigo EV and VW e-Up, respectively #1 and #2 in the table, with the German-badged version scoring a record 24 registrations last month. Both counted together, they make 28% of the total plugin market.

Looking elsewhere, the Skoda Superb PHEV is #3, with 52 registrations, while the #4 Renault Zoe is far behind the podium bearers, with just 21 units registered.

Outside the Top 5, a mention to the rising Hyunda Kona EV, #6 with 19 registrations, 3 of them last month, while the Porsche Taycan is also popular, already registering 11 units this year, 4 of them in May. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Skoda (27%) is leading with a sizeable margin, with Volkswagen in Second (14%) and BMW (9%) in 3rd, while Hyundai and Porsche(!), both with 7% share, are looking to close in on the Bavarian maker. 

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Switzerland May 2020

Tesla Model 3 at Zurich Formula E Championship, Switzerland - YouTube

Tesla Model 3 back to #1

After the pandemic-related disruption, the Swiss plugin market was already up 40% in May, pulling the 2020 growth rate to 21%, by registering 7.657 units, with the PEV share now at 9,7% (5,5% last year), helped by the fact that the overall market is falling 39% this year, with BEVs representing 56% of all plugin sales (52% in May).

After an awful beggining of the year, the Tesla Model 3 returned to the leadership, surpassing the previous leader Renault Zoe, with the sports sedan now having a comfortable 360 units lead over the French EV.

Speaking of Tesla, the Model X (126 units) is ahead of the Audi e-Tron (102), this being one of the few markets where the Tesla is ahead of the Audi, but has to keep an eye on the rising Porsche Taycan (120).

On the PHEV side of the Luxury category, the #6 BMW X5 PHEV is leading the way, proving to be a success for the German maker, and with the Big Beemer now only 94 units behind the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, we could even see it steal the Best Selling PHEV award from Mitsubishi's hands.

Last month, there weren't significant position changes, with the big news being the new fresh faces in the table, with the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins jumping to #13, thanks to a year best 45 registrations, while in #17 we now have the (we can now officially call it) hot Ford Kuga PHEV, that scored a record 77 units performance in May, with a Top 10 position being quite possible for the Ford plugin, which would a first for the Dearborn maker and a good omen for the upcoming Mustang Mach-E (haven't i written this before?).

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 53 registrations of new Volvo XC40 PHEV, a new record for the popular Swedish SUV, while the ramp-up mode Opel Corsa EV, the second-youth VW e-Up and the new Mercedes GLC300e all share the same number of registrations in May (21 units), being a new record for the first two, and the best score in almost two years for the midzise Mercedes SUV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is back in the lead, with 19% share, followed by BMW (13%) and Renault (11%). 

Outside the medals position, we have a distant Volvo (7%) leading the followers pack.

Monday, June 22, 2020

Japan May 2020

Resultado de imagem para nissan leaf 62 kWh japans

Nissan Leaf leads regressing market

In May, some 1.025 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, down 62% YoY, which is worse than the YTD result (-31%) and also worse than the overall market behavior (-19% YoY in 2020, -45% last month), with the Japanese plugin market highly dependent from the leader Nissan Leaf behavior, with the Nissan EV owning almost half of the market, and because the Leaf has seen better days (-38% YoY)...

...The local plugin market is also on a bad place. The 2020 PEV share is now at 0.7% share (0,5% in May), down 0.1% regarding the 2019 result, and one wonders what can pull sales North of the 1% mark again.

But...What? The current leader Nissan Leaf continues sliding, and the same can be said about the remaining podium members, the Toyota Prius PHEV is down 18% this year, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is dropping by 33%, so there's really no major hopes for recovery coming from these three. 

Maybe the savior role will belong to the upcoming Toyota RAV4 PHEV?  

On the Honda field, all hopes are going to the Honda e EV, but then again, i believe the model is too niche, abd on the unlikely scenario that the model is indeed a success, will Honda have enough batteries for it?

What's left? Mazda is lauching the MX-30, once again, a model too niche to be a major sales success, Lexus doesn't seem very commited to its UX300e EV, Subaru and Daihatsu are too dependent from Toyota's anti-BEV stubburness, while Suzuki is focusing it's electrification efforts in India...so there are doubts that 2020 will provide the necessary recovery to this market.

The only positive news come from the #4 Mitsubishi Minicab MIEV, tripling its sales regarding last year (fleet deals?), while in #5 we have the Tesla Model 3, that is now the Best Selling Foreign model in Japan.

Friday, June 19, 2020

China May 2020

Tesla baixa preço do Model 3 Standard Range Plus para 37.574 euros ...

Tesla Model 3 undisputed leader

While the overall Chinese market returned to positive numbers in May (+7% YoY), plugins are still in red, being down 32% last month, to close to over 73,000 units.

This PEV subpar performance is concerning, but because it might be connected to the incentives-related sales rush that happened around this same time last year, when they were cut towards the end of June, we will have to wait for July to see if growth returns by then, as it is expected, or if we are in for a lost year.

Still, it was the best month this year regarding volumes, and that shows on May’s PEV share, with 4.4% (3.3% BEV), pulling the 2020 share by 0.1%, to 4.3% (3.3% BEV), which is still a step below from the 5.5% of 2019, but hopefully the second half of the year will bring the possibility to reach last year's score.

Looking at May Best Sellers, Tesla dominated the scene, almost tripling the deliveries of the #2 GAC Aion S, while the surprise of the month coms from Buick(!), with its Velite 6 station wagon(!!!) reaching May’s Bronze medal.

Here’s May’s Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 11,468 units (including estimated imports), and while a record performance is always something to cheer, frankly i was expecting better (15,000 was my target), trying to find a reason for this, and after checking the local available inventory and orders, something interesting happened: While on one hand, there was a several thousands long waiting list for the LR RWD version, on the other, there were a few thousands of SR Model 3’s sitting on stock, which provides a couple of interesting insights on the Model 3 demand: The upper end of the range still has significant demand, while the lower end is suffering from the increased competition / adverse times, with the “Tesla is supply constrained” mantra proving to be more nuanced than previously thought. Finally, the lower cost of the upcoming LFP battery SR version is another piece of the puzzle, with Tesla proactively recognizing the current weak point of the Model 3 lineup, and the new version allowing Tesla to “play ball” with the local competition.

#2 – GAC Aion S

GAC’s sleek sedan finished second in May, having registered 3,892 units (excluding the 599 Toyota-badged iA5 units), a new year best, and while the Aion S is still far from the 8,460 units of last December, the ramp up continues and should reach cruise speed some time during the summer. One of the most competitive domestic EV’s on the market, the Aion S is sure to continue a regular in this Top 5, being a strong candidate to the medals positions.

#3 – Buick Velite 6

Something of an oddball in China, station wagons, especially electric ones, are a niche in this market, but for some reason General Motors and its local partner, SAIC, thought it was a good idea to bet on them, and while the SAIC version has occasionally shown up here, this is the first time that the GM variation on the theme, the Buick Velite 6, reached a Top 5 position, earning the first medal ever for GM in this market. This compact wagon (think Chevrolet Cruze or Opel Astra-sized) has a couple of trump cards up its sleeve, for once, its style is original and striking (imagine if the original Opel Ampera had a second generation, and that generation was a wagon), plus a competitive 53 kWh battery, allowing it 410 kms (255 mi) NEDC range, and a complete set of features, including OTA updates(!) and a virtual key. All this has allowed the Buick wagon to reach 3,526 units in May, by far its best result so far, although one wonders if this is just a one time thing, or will the GM EV become a regular feature on this Top 5.

#4 – BYD Qin Pro EV

The maker’s reply to the GAC Aion S and BAIC EU-Series Xpeng P7 reached  3,201 units in May, so BYD’s bet on its electric sedan to stay among the podium Best Sellers is working, but from here on, demand could end up being an issue, with so many fierce competitors on this category and price range, without forgetting the internal competition that the upcoming Han full size car might also make.

#5 – NIO ES6

Another Top 5 presence for NIO, with the Midsize SUV scoring 2,685 deliveries in May. Facing an uphill battle, after all, marrying “Premium” and “Chinese” in one EV-only brand is no easy task, the fact is that NIO products and concept add something new to the current EV landscape, not only they have battery swap stations, but they also increase regularly their models battery capacity, from the initial 74 kWh, back in 2018, to 80 kWh in 2019, and now in 2020, they have launched a 100 kWh option. Even better, the brand allows existing owners to upgrade their current batteries to the 100 kWh pack, for little over $5,000! The ES6 is the current best seller, but in a few months, the presumably cheaper and lighter EC6 midsize crossover-coupé will land, possibly stealing the thunder from its larger, taller, sibling ES6.

Xpeng P7 launches in China NEDC 706km Super-long range, first L3 ...
Xpeng P7: The Next Big Thing in China?

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with Tesla possibly having enough advantage in front to start preparing the celebrations for its first Best Selling Model trophy ceremony ahead of schedule, while the #6 NIO ES6 is closing in fast on the BAIC EU-Series, with the midsize SUV most likely surpassing the Beijing Auto sedan in June.

But NIO is not the only local EV startup shining, with the Weltmeister EX5 (1,421 units, new year best) climbing to #13, while the Hozon Neta N01 returned to the table, in #20, making 5 EV startup models in the table! Disruption?

And to think 2019 ended with no startup model in this Top 20...And the best selling foreigner (Tesla Model 3) ended only in #8! Now we have 2 foreign models (Tesla Model 3 and BMW 530Le) above that...Yes, disruption.

In other news, the City EV category is picking up, the tiny Baojun E-Series climbed yet again, now to #7, thanks to a year best 2,447 units, but the Chery eQ (2,563 units, year best) is chasing it, with the small Chery jumping 2 positions, to #9, while the Great Wall Ora R1 was also up, now at #11, thanks to 2,326 units, which was, you guessed it, a new year best.

The BYD e2 compact hatchback climbed two positions, to #14, thanks to 1,461 units, a new year best (Do you see a trend here?)

We have two new entries to the table, besides the aforementioned Neta N01, the Buick Velite 6 profited from its amazing May performance (3,526 units) to jump into #15, making it 4 foreign models in this Top 20.

Outside the table, a reference to the BYD Song Pro EV, that registered a record 1,015 units last month, jumping to #21, less than 100 units away from the #20 Hozon Neta N01, while the Changan Benni EV scored its best result in over a year, with 1,838 units.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (17%, down 1%) is in the leadership, but Tesla (14%, up 2%) is rising, while SAIC (10%) is stable in 3rd, with the #4 GAC (7%) winning precious advange over the #5 Volkswagen (6%, down 1%), behind it.