Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Norway May 2020

Resultado de imagem para audi e-tron Norway\

1-2 win for the Volkswagen Group

Despite being a market less severely impacted by the pandemic, the overall market dropped 39% YoY in May, with plugins representing 66% of the overall Norwegian market, with BEVs alone representing 43% of the total sales, pulling down the 2020 PEV share to 69% (49% BEV).

With certain high demand BEV models running low on stock, due to the recent production disruption, last month drop on BEV registrations (-30% YoY) should be temporary, and with PHEVs continuing to pull strongly (+25% in May), the plugin market should transition soon (June? July?) to above average market shares, so a target of 75% share for the full year could be an achievable goal. 

Looking at May model sales by fuel, we have the Skoda Octavia ICE model breaking the 100% BEV Top 5 rule that had been happening in the past months, good thing then that the Octavia PHEV version is just a couple of months away...Sure, it's not pure EV, but it's still better than a plugless ICE model, right?

The remaining Top 5 didn't had much to talk about, with the Volkswagen Group making another 1-2 win, with the news being that for the first time this year, the e-Golf has beaten the big Audi. Maybe because they had more units available?

VW e-Golf
Audi e-Tron
Hyundai Kona EV
Nissan Leaf
Skoda Octavia

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the front positions remained the same, with the first change happening in #6, with the Renault Zoe surpassing the Tesla Model 3, suffering from a depleted inventory, and with the #8 BMW i3 just 113 units behind, we could see the sports sedan fall event further in June, as the bulk of the fresh Model 3 units will only arrive in July.

The Peugeot 208 EV climbed to #17, and should rise further in the coming months, after all, its French arch-rival, the Renault Zoe, is 6th....

In the unplugged category, the highest standing is the Toyota Yaris Hybrid, in #9, while the only pure ICE model here, the Skoda Octavia, jumped to #10, which bodes well for the success of its PHEV versions..
.The same can be said about the #11 Toyota RAV4, with its PHEV version deliveries said to be delivered soon, these two models should change field and play for the PHEV team in a few months, leaving only 3 plugless models in this Top 20. 

The moment where we will see a 100% pluggable Top 20 is coming...Maybe already this year?  

Back to plugins, in May we have one new entry, in #18, with the refreshed VW Passat GTE returning to the table, thanks to 215 registrations, a new year best for the VW midsizer, but below it, outside the Top 20, there's plenty of activity going on, in #21 we have the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins, that are only 32 units behind the #20 Skoda Citigo EV, while in #23 and #24, we have the rising MG ZS EV (187 units in May) and BMW X3 PHEV (161), with both models scoring record performances last month, and last, but not the least (after all, it's a pretty massive barge), the Mercedes GLE350de had 103 deliveries in May, which is already the best result ever for any plugin GLE Merc in Norway, and the first of several three-digit scores, if the rumors of a long waiting list are to be believed. If this turns out to be true, once again the rule is proved: big battery = big sales.

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen and Audi share the leadership, both with 12% share, with the #3 Toyota (9%) keeping BMW (7%), Volvo (6%), Hyundai (6%) and Skoda (6%) at bay.


  1. Shouldn't the Skoda Octavia be in red in the top 5 table?

    1. you're right. changed it.

    2. AnonymousJune 11, 2020

      Then, who is leading Norway non-plugin market, Toyota/Lexus, VW group, others?

    3. Looking just at unplugged sales, Toyota is the big player, with 4 models in the Top 5, thanks to its hybrid lineup.

  2. AnonymousJune 10, 2020

    From the posted data, carmaker standings are:

    1st Volkswagen Group with 9404 vehicles
    2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 4989 vehicles
    3rd Kia-Hyundai with 3582 vehicles
    4th Tesla with 1268 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 1115 vehicles

  3. Maarten VinkhuyzenJune 10, 2020

    "Depleted inventory", just two words. Brilliant :-)

    And I spend a complete article on the low sales of Tesla in Norway.
    I was right to write that for the details readers had to wait for your article.

    Thanks, as always.

  4. When comparing the Peugeot 208 to the Zoe, we always need to keep in mind that the 208 shares sales with the Corsa (which still doesn't seem to have started deliveries in earnest for some reason?...), while the Zoe stands on its own...

  5. I'm not sure many Model 3 units will arrive in July. It looks like the ship headed for Zeebrugge should arrive early enough to have the bigger part of its load delivered in June... Though I wouldn't be surprised if in order to make that happen, they will be delivered mostly to markets closer to the port -- quite possibly leaving Norway starved until Q3 production arrives in August...

    (Curiously, the Tesla site currently lists estimated delivery of new Model 3 orders for August in Norway, but September in Germany... Though historically, these estimates have often been outdated -- so I we probably shouldn't attempt to read too much into this.)

    1. Turns out there was another ship on the way to Europe, which nobody noticed earlier, because it left from New York, for expedited shipping... It has already arrived: so with two weeks left for delivery, I think there is a very good chance that Norway will get some Q2 love after all :-)

      Along with "leftovers" from Q1, Tesla should be able to end up with some 12,000 - 13,000 European Model 3 deliveries this quarter, I believe -- which isn't all that bad, given the situation...

  6. AnonymousJune 11, 2020

    Numbers don't look good for Tesla. Just 1519 registrations this year so far. At least the Model X (179) is contributing with something, but the Model S isn't doing anything and the Model 3 needs to start selling otherwise Tesla might not even reach 5000 sales this year.
    What can the Model 3 do until the Model Y arrives?

    written by Looney Tunes

  7. Hello @Maarten, with all my respect, I cannot agree that the reason for the decreased sales of Tesla in Norway is "depleted inventory".
    Due to the shipping model of Tesla the 3rd month of a quarter is the peak month. If you compare:
    - March 2019 (5.828 - highest sales due to accumulated previous demand);
    - June 2019 (3.761);
    - September 2019 (2.771);
    - January 2020 (1.399);
    - March 2020 - (1.133);
    - June 2020 - (14 till the middle of the month ...)
    The trend goes very clear downwards.
    The reasons could be several:
    - Tesla Model 3 is positioned higher as a price than the middle-class buyer
    - Tesla Service disappointed customers (the company was struggling with the service quality in Norway for quite a while; don't know the current situation)
    - Model 3 did not get any significant improvements since it came out; the model starts gradually getting outdated;
    - Some buyers might be waiting for Model Y (let's hope it will improve the picture)
    - there is more competition as other brands started offering their models on the market; ID3 although 1 class smaller than Model 3 would be much cheaper (maybe about 10.000€) and would be the hit of Q4 2020 in Norway in my opinion. In 2021 there will come also the ID4 and both ID3/ID4 will dominate the Norwegian market.
    Do not get me wrong. I am a huge Tesla fan and have no doubts about the transition to BEV being completed in Europe around 2028. But I think we have entered another phase of the transition: previously it was Tesla and the rest; now the competition started catching up.

    1. Actually, the variant of the ID.3 that gets launched this year (the "1st edition"), starts at 40,000 Euro -- with main specs (range, power) roughly similar to Model 3 SR+, but a very basic configuration in terms of features. The SR+ actually sits more or less between the middle tier of the ID.3 1st edition at 46,000 Euro, and the top one at 50,000 Euro. With this in mind, the ID.3 -- for now -- isn't really cheaper at all. The cheaper entry-level variants will only follow some time next year. (This isn't news: VW first mentioned it around late summer 2019 IIRC, i.e. almost a year ago...)

      More generally, while all of the reasons you listed could be responsible for some downtrend in Model 3 sales, they absolutely do not explain sales going down pretty much to zero -- so I have very little doubt that Tesla is in fact sitting on a significant backlog of orders, and we will see a major bounce-back in deliveries in Q3. (And possibly a small one already in the last days of Q2...)