Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Global Top 10 April 2018

Upcoming BYD Qin: Niiice...

Models: Month 3 before TM3 Flood -  BAIC EC-Series Best Seller in April

Registrations jumped 93% in April, to some 128,000 units, at this pace, the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), is in danger to be broken next September, or even earlier, in June.

This positive start of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at 435,000 units (+68% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at 1.4% share, a new record, which makes realistic the prospect of this year of hitting two million units (and over 2% share) this year. 

In April, the BAIC EC-Series was the Best Seller, with 7,471 units (+72%), followed by the Nissan Leaf, that was down 47% regarding the record month of March, but the 5,941 units represente a 97% jump over the same month last year. 

Third in April was the rising BYD e5, with  a record4.294 units, that thanks to a new version, with 400 kms range (NEDC), is jumping positions and could be a Top 10 presence in a couple of months.

Other models shining in April were the BYD Qin PHEV, scoring 4,138 units (Year best), the SAIC Baojun E100 (3,760 units, also year best), while the Tesla Model 3 hit 3,875 units last month, a small deliveries increase that allowed it to return to the Top 10, as it prepares to shatter all records in July and attack the leadership in that same month...  

As for the YTD ranking, the BAIC EC-Series came closer to the Nissan Leaf, with the Chinese model trying to recover the leadership, while the BYD Qin PHEV jumped to positions, to #6.

Comparing the current Top 10 passengers with their places in 2017, the new generation Leaf has pulled the nameplate to #1, the Prius PHEV continues in a solid Third Place, while the BYD Qin and Song PHEVs increased their performances significantly regarding 2017.
The Tesla Model 3 was still in launch mode, that is why it was only #106 last year (And yes, there are already 106 plug-in models, in total, 193 PEV models were on sale in 2017…)

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics increased once again their lead (+1%) in April, now representing 61% of the total market, expect this score to be constantly improved throughout the year, maybe to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
The one in the middle is said to flood the US charts in July...

Manufacturers:  Month 3 before TM3 Flood - BYD recovers #1

April signaled two significant changes, the most important being the return of BYD to the leadership, thanks to 13,209 deliveries (Year best), but it wasn't the only Chinese manufacturer to climb positions, BAIC was up to #4, crossing for the first time this year the 10,000 units, while Volkswagen is on fire, breaking its record for the second time in a row(!), with almost 9,000 deliveries, allowing it to come closer to the #5 Nissan, while Roewe also posted a new record result, with 6,943 units.
Outside this Top 10, the #11 Chevrolet missed a presence by just 60 units, while Chery is on the up, reaching #12, being just 1,000 units behind JAC, so expect an entertaining race for #10 in the following months. 

Comparing current positions with 2017, BYD is at it usual place, but this time Tesla is higher than last year (The Model 3 should have something to do with this…), with the American carmaker waiting for July (June?) to definitely jump to the drivers seat and sprint for the Best Seller award, something it has yet to win, ever since it landed, way back in the Cretaceous 2008...  

Volkswagen is significantly better than last year, up three positions, to #6, as it tries to beat its highest standing ever (#5, in 2015), while JAC is also up seven positions regarding 2017.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese are the unconstested leaders, with 42% of all deliveries, while Germany (20%) held steady in Second Place, and the USA (14%, down 1%) saved its podium seat from Japan (13%).

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Europe April 2018

Image result for 2018 Nissan Leaf fleet

Leaf jumps to Number One

After beating the all-time record last month, the European passenger plug-in market continues pushing forward, by registering some 28,000 registrations, growing 62% regarding the same period last year, which is the highest growth rate since last August, and pulling the Year-to-date counting to over 116,000 deliveries (+45%), allowing the 2018 market share to climb to 2.1% (2.2% in April), and the good news do not end here, as BEVs (+86% YoY) grew faster than PHEVs (+43%), thus reducing the disadvantage (2,000 units) it has over plug-in hybrids in the 2018 count. Will we see all-electrics surpass plug-in hybrids in May? 

Interestingly, this April saw the plug-in passenger fleet hit one million units in Europe, some 8 years after the current generation of PEVs hit the market. How many years will it take to reach the second million?

In April, BEVs continue to shine, filling the Top 4 positions, with the Nissan Leaf leading the way, followed from a far by the Renault Zoe, while the BMW i3 and VW e-Golf make the rest of the BEV Best Sellers lineup. 

After a close race with the VW Passat GTE and Volvo XC60 PHEV, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to score another Top 5 presence, while at the same time remain as the best selling PHEV.

A funny fact, the Top 6 positions in April were exactly the same as the current 2018 ranking.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for 2018 White Nissan Leaf
#1 Nissan Leaf –The 2.0 version of the most best-selling plug-in in the world had its second full month in Europe last month and by registering 3,546 units, the Nissan hatchback won its second consecutive Best Seller of the Month award (Up 159% YoY), and with the orders list still to be satisfied, expect the Leaf to remain at around 4-5,000 units in the coming months, limited only by the Sunderland production capacity. But back to April, the main markets were Norway (997 deliveries), UK (500), France (375), Germany (279) and the Netherlands (268).

Image result for 2018 White Renault Zoe
#2 Renault Zoe – April’s 2,462 deliveries meant a 51% YoY growth for the French hatchback, as Renault runs to satisfy all of the Zoe orders, now that LG has enough batteries to provide the French automaker. As for individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 961 units, with other positive numbers coming from Germany (422 units), and Norway (250).   

Image result for 2018 White BMW i3
#3 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales remained positive (+18%) in April, with 1,817 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory currently going on full charge, do not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its angry-puppy-faced EV in the short term. Looking at individual countries, Norway is once again leading sales (524 units), with Germany (493) following suit, and France (200) also presenting a strong result. With a larger battery coming late this year (+/- 45 kWh), BMW expects the growing trend to continue well into next year, with the manufacturer already preparing the expansion of the Leipzig factory in order to accommodate the future demand.

Image result for 2018 White VW e-Golf
#4 VW e-Golf – The German hatchback continues to suffer from a common disease (Not enough batteries), but despite that, the BEV Golf collected another Top 5 presence, thanks to 1,547 deliveries, up 125% YoY. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s usual contribution (539 units), Germany (456 units) is becoming also a major contributor. Looking ahead, expect sales to continue strong over the next 12 months, but after that, VW will probably place it in Sunset-mode, as a certain ID-thingy will already be in the oven...

Image result for 2018 White Outlander PHEV
#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a rock, the Japanese SUV managed to outsell the more resourced (VW Passat GTE) and hip (Volvo XC60 PHEV) competition, thus securing another Best Selling PHEV of the Month award and a Top 5 PEV presence in April, thanks to 1,210 registrations. The Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range and affordability (40.000€), to make it popular in markets like the UK (500 units), Norway (195) or Sweden (115). Going forward, the Japanese SUV is expected to receive an update soon, so expect it to keep wearing its Europe’s Best Selling PHEV crown in the foreseeable future.

Image result for 2018 Kia Niro PHEV

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the headline goes to the new Nissan Leaf, climbing to First Place, and displacing the Renault Zoe to Second Place, that being the only relevant change in the top positions.

Other changes in the Top 20 were the #9 Mercedes GLC350e and #10 BMW 530e, both jumping two positions into the Top 10, with another BMW also on the rise, with the 330e up two positions, to #13, all while the VW Golf GTE leaped three positions into #12, and the Kia Niro PHEV, was up one place, to #16, confirming itself as a welcome surprise, even if it continues production constrained.

Outside the Top 20, the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV (523 units, new record), continues to impress, with buyers attracted by their competitive specs (29 miles / 47 kms EPA range) and pricing (28.400€).

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (16%) is in the lead, thanks to the good performances of its extensive lineup, with the runner-up Volkswagen (14%, up 1%), recovering a bit of ground to the leader, while Nissan (10%) is the new Bronze medalist, having removed Renault (9’%, down 1%) from the podium.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Portugal April 2018

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal
Renault Zoe: An increasingly common sight in Lisbon

Record Month

PEV Sales continue on the fast track in Portugal, with April registering a new record month, with 774 sales (3.6% PEV share), and the 2018 Plug-in Share climbing to a record 2.7%, so there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3-4% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market is known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so much), but even here, these are historic times, with diesel sales down 8%, with April registering a meagre 51% share for the troubled fuel, while all others increased their sales, some of them spectacularly, like LPG (+171%), and all other Alternative Fuels (CNG, HEV, PHEV, BEV) grew over 75% YoY. At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised if diesel sales would be dead in Portugal by 2024... 

But to be fair, this April had a strong tailwind helping out sales, as the EMOV car-sharing company registered 146 Citroen C-Zero in April, a decisive contribution for the record numbers, but it is also a sign that car-sharing has been picking up steam charge in Lisbon, after the good results that the BMW-supported Drivenow company has shown in that city, and even if EVs are a small part of the operation (With data showing that the BMW i3's of the fleet have the highest utilization rate of the lineup), it was enough for the PSA-supported car-sharing company to also launch itself into Lisbon, and with the added bonus of a 100% BEV fleet.

So, following on the success of Madrid, will we see also the Renault-supported car-sharing company, Zity, reaching Lisbon in a near future?

Moving on, so far the Renault Zoe continues to be where it ended 2017, which means, in the lead, with over twice as much registrations as the new runner-up, the Nissan Leaf.

But the new generation of the Japanese hatchback won't be an easy running mate, in only its second full month on the market, the Nissan BEV has already beaten its French cousin (125 vs 103), which is a first in the last 12 months, and the first time it reached the three digits in this market, although this is just the first of many, with a waiting list said to be in the 600 units, the local importer is limited by the Sunderland factory constraints to deliver all units at once, so expect several months of +/-200 units in the near future, just to deliver the units already ordered.

This will of course limit the 2018 Best Seller race to just two models, with the 2017 winner Renault Zoe trying to defend the title from the four times winner (2010, '11, '14, '16) Nissan Leaf.

The following places are in the hands of company-car friendly cars (BMW 530e, BMW 330e), while the aforementioned Citroen C-Zero leaped to #5, due to the EMOV deal, while the Smart Fortwo ED continues to be popular, in #6, having delivered 41 units last month, a new best for the nameplate.

Looking below, the Kia Niro PHEV joined the Top 20, in #20, thanks to another good deliveries month, it has been said the local Kia importer has been having difficulties to have their share of plug-ins from the mothership, confirming once again the serious production constraints that Hyundai-Kia is experiencing, and validating the phrase: "Hyundai-Kia plug-ins are great...But good luck finding one!".

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (23%) is back on top, displacing Renault (21%) to Second Place, while Nissan (10%) jumped to Third, removing Mercedes (9%) from the podium.

1Renault Zoe10348521
2Nissan Leaf12523010
3BMW 530e722169
4BMW 330e811717
5Citroen C-Zero1461537
6Smart Fortwo ED411075
7Mercedes GLC350e251065
8Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV26824
9BMW i39753
10Volvo XC60 PHEV19703
11BMW 225xe Active Tourer3663
12Smart Forfour ED15532
13Mini Countryman PHEV 492
14Volvo V60 PHEV17472
15Mercedes E350e9452
16Mercedes C350e7442
17VW Passat GTE6412
18Hyundai Ioniq Electric7311
19Toyota Prius PHEV4301
20Kia Niro PHEV9271
Source: ACAP

Japan April 2018

Image result for Toyota Prius PHV Japan

Toyota recovers ground

In April, some 2,300 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, up 32% YoY, while the PEV share dropped slightly, to 1.1% share, with the Prius PHEV outselling the new Nissan Leaf for the first time the new Nissan BEV landed.

Despite this setback, the current leader saw its sales jump 119% regarding the same period last year, while its Toyota rival also improved its performance, with +38%.

Looking at the 2018 numbers, the Nissan hatchback profits from the new generation to surge 122%, leaving the Toyota Prius PHEV far behind, watching its sales dive 25% YoY. 

As for the third significant Plug-in model in Japan, the Outlander PHEV, sales are up 12% this year, so far unharmed by the Leaf success (Well, they appeal to different demographics, right?), but neverthless, the Mitsubishi SUV has known better days, as sales are down 40% regarding 2016.

Despite losing ground to Toyota last month ,I think it is safe to say that the Nissan Leaf will recover the Best Selling Ceptre in 2018, but will it add a new sales record?

(The current one is 26,734 units, established last year by the Prius PHEV)

e) Estimate