Friday, September 28, 2018

Global Top 20 August 2018 (Updated)

Models: Tesla Model 3 Superstar in Record Month

Registrations grew 76% in August, to some 172,000 units, almost reaching the current record (174,000 units, in December '17), but with August usually being a slow month, imagine how September will be... Do i hear a new record by September? With how much? 200,000? And will we see all Q4 months reach 200k, too?

This positive result is placing the 2018 numbers at over one million units (+69% YoY), with the global PEV share standing at a record 1.7% share, which still makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

August was all about the Tesla Model ,3, with the Californian maker pushing up the production rate, resulting in a record 17,900 units being delivered to customers, breaking the previous all-time record, in the hands of the BAIC EC-Series, while allowing it to finally suprpass the Nissan Leaf and hit the Number One position in the yearly ranking.

Speaking of the EC-Series, the production of the new EC3 has already started to gear up, with September said to be already in full speed, although rumours say that BAIC's little EV won't surpass last year sales lever, which could mean that the Nissan Leaf might still have a shot at #2.

Bring the popcorn in Q4, as  we could see an entertaining race between these two in the race for Silver during October, November & December...

Still regarding Tesla, the older two siblings, the Model S and X, had their best mid-quarter performance ever, so expect both also to shine in September...

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the climbers are all Chinese: the BYD e5 is now #10 (+2 positions), the Roewe Ei6 PHEV, climbed one position to #12, while the Chery eQ jumped 4 places to #15, thanks to a year best performance of 4,613 units.

But the true surprise was the Geely Emgrand EV stroming through the Top 20, into #16, thanks to 4,647 units, the nameplate's best result since 2016...The wonders of increased range!

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by 1%, to 64% of the total market, mostly thanks to the Model 3, and expect this score to be improved  even further during the year, possibly to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla continues on a record streak

August saw Tesla break once again the all-time record, with over 25,000 deliveries in one month, thanks to the Model 3 deliveries, allowing the brand to distance itself from BYD, with the Chinese maker also  hitting record levels, with over 20,000 units. 

With both brands now hitting unseen sales levels month after month, there is no question on who will be in the first two positions, and with Tesla apparently ramping up production faster than BYD, it all points out that the US brand will finally win the Manufacturers title, after 10 years on the market. 

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, there aren't significant changes at the top, with #3 BAIC keeping na eye on the Fourth Placed BMW, while Roewe secured further its Fifth Position.
Below the Top 10, Geely was the Climber of the Month, thanks to a record 8,088 registrations, jumping six(!) positions to #13, while Hawtai (5,683 units, new PB) continues to climb positions without anyone noticing, this time it is #14, rising two places. 

A final reference to Kia, that with 3,893 deliveries, had its best month ever.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Europe August 2018

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Porsche Cayenne PHEV Third in August

The European passenger plug-in market grew slightly above average (42% in August vs 41% YTD), by registering some 30,000 registrations, pulling the Year-to-date count to some 242,000 deliveries, while the 2018 market share grew slightly to 2.3%, thanks to a strong month of August (2.7%).

Last month, BEVs grew slower (+35%) than PHEVs (+47%), with plugin hybrids catching some tailwind from August being the last month of the CO2-friendly NEDC standard, allowing them to grow their share to 56% of plugin sales, +2% regarding the total year breakdown (46% BEV, 54% PHEV).

August is holiday season in Europe, with most models slowing down sales during the Summer months, then returning with a bang in September, but it seems the folks at Porsche had to take their vacations at another time, as both(!) their plugin models hit record sales, with the Panamera PHEV registering 850 registrations, beating the Tesla Model S (832), while the recently introduced Second Generation Cayenne PHEV had 1,848 deliveries(!!), skyrocketing it it to the August Podium in only its second month on the market (!!!). Is it a case of Veni, Vidi, Vici, for the Cayenne, or has it been simply a case of pre-WLTP sales rush? To be continued…


Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s Best Selling PEV model continues to expand its sales, by registering 2,924 units in August, tripling the result of last year, and with the orders list still to be satisfied in a number of countries, expect the Leaf to continue to be the default #1 throughout the year. But back at last month performance, with the main market being by far Norway (1,241 deliveries), but other markets also reached three-digit performances, like France, Netherlands, Germany, UK, Sweden, Portugal and Ireland.

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#2 Renault Zoe – The August 2,213 deliveries meant a 7% growth YoY for the French hatchback, and with stagnant sales this year, I smell a significant price cut on the Zoe soon... Especially as the automaker is promising a production increase in a few months. Anyways, regarding August individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 571 units, with other significant numbers coming from Germany (421 units), Norway (386, Year Best), Sweden (155, new record for the second time in a row) and Denmark (111, YB).  

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#3 Porsche Cayenne PHEV – The SUV deliveries reached an amazing 1,848 deliveries, in only its second month on the market, becoming not only August’s Best-Selling PHEV, but also last month’s Third Placed podium bearer, both a first for any Porsche model. Although impressive, this result might had help from the pre-WLTP sales rush, but this will be something we will only be sure in a couple of months. Nevertheless, it is a surprising result for the high-end SUV, especially one that has just landed. The most interesting aspect of this performance was that several markets contributed to it, with four countries (Germany, France, Norway and Spain) delivering three digit results, while other smaller markets, also contributed with relevant numbers, like Austria (53 units), Finland (81) or Switzerland (67).   

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#4 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales increased (+46% YoY) in August, with 1,675 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory expected to grow output towards the end of the year, thanks to the upcoming 44kWh version, do not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its quirky looking hatchback sales performance. Looking at individual countries, this time Norway was the largest market for the BMW hot hatch, with 473 registrations, with Germany (412 units, 282 of them BEV) following it.

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#5 Volkswagen Passat GTE – The favorite company-car PHEV in Europe had its best month since 2016, with 1,636 registrations, probably connected to the WLTP change, with Sweden absorbing a large portion of it (676 units, new record), but also with strong results in Norway (298) and Germany (328). A model made to keep fleet managers happy, the Passat GTE has the right mix of space (including a station wagon), range and price to keep selling well in markets where company cars are a large part of the market.

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BMW PHEVs shine

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the headlining news being the VW Golf GTE climbing to #8, thanks to a year best 1,163 registrations (pre-WLTP fever?), while the BMW’s 225xe Active Tourer and the 330e did even better, with the first shooting up to #11, while the second jumped two positions to #12, a surprising performance for the sedan, with the 1,316 units representing its best result in 15 months(!), something that can only be explained by the Pre-WLTP sales rush.

Elsewhere, another plugin hybrid from the BMW Group climbed positions, with the Mini Countryman PHEV reaching #17, thanks to 726 deliveries.

Besides the thundering arrival of the Porsche Cayenne PHEV, there are other models outside the Top 20 that deserve some attention, and we start by the promising of them, the Hyundai Kona BEV, that had its first real deliveries month in Europe in August, by registering 455 units, not as many as we (and thousands of reservation owners) would have wished, but…It’s a start.

The Jaguar i-Pace still continues without ramping up deliveries (86 last month), although it has been said that significant volumes will be expected in September, and the Chinese JAC delivered their first units of its iEV7S Crossover in Europe, namely in Norway and Belgium. They are coming…


Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (17%) is in the lead, while the runner-up Volkswagen (13%), is watching the #3 Nissan (11%) with a close eye, with Renault (8%) in a distant Fourth, ahead of Tesla (7%).

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Romania August 2018

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Nissan Leaf Shines, but BMW i3 is still #1

The Romanian PEV market has cooled down a bit, with the current 466 Plug-ins registered so far this year representing only a 221% jump regarding last year. With four months to go, this year market has already beaten last year record of 374 registrations.

Because of this sales slowdown regarding the Q1 2018, the PEV Share dropped from a record 0.8% then, to the current 0.5%, which is still better than the 0.3% of last year.

Last year Best Seller BMW i3 (108 units, already more than the 71 recorded in 2017) is once again in the lead, in its bid to win a third consecutive Best Seller title, but this time it seems that the 2017 runner-up, the Renault Zoe (87 units, doubling the sales of last year), is giving some fight, with both far ahead of the Third Placed Smart Fortwo ED (38 units). 

In fact, Smart is betting heavily in Romania, as its other model, the ForFour is...Fourth. 

But a new model that might soon stir things in the top positions is the new Nissan Leaf, that registered 15 units last month (Personal best), jumping to #7, and becoming August Best Seller.

Should this performance repeat in the coming months, and the Japanese hatchback could be eligible for the Bronze Medal, something that might depend more on the product allocation of Nissan Europe than anything else, as demand should be more than enough to reach the Third Spot. 

In a BEV-friendly market, where the top four best selling models are BEVs, all electric models are increasing (+3%) their share regarding PHEVs (66% vs 34%), while the best selling PHEVs is only #5.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW is headed for a third consecutive title, having a large 36% share of the market, while Renault and Smart are running for #2, with the first having 19% share and the seconfd 16%, while Volvo is a distant Fourth Placed, with 8% share.


Monday, September 24, 2018

China August 2018

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New BYD Tang #1 in August

The Chinese PEV market hit its second best score this year, with some 93,000 units registered in August, up only 62%, this slowdown from the three-digit growth rates of previous months is explained by the fact that New Energy subsidies were slashed to vehicles with range lower to 150 kms, in June, so many small City EVs lost a large amount of sales.

In a falling mainstream market (-5% YoY), the continued growth of the plugin market means that  PEV share hit a new all-time best, ending the month with 5.2%, while the 2018 share rose slightly, to 3.1% share, a new record and well above the 2.1% of 2017, with sales expected to continue growing as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3% 4% threshold (5%?), with December possibly reaching 7%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented almost 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that should increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are putting an effort, although this month, their share was down 1%, to 6% share, due the sharp deliveries drop of Tesla (-70% YoY). Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to Tesla (down 1%), and 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In August, the headlining news were the new BYD Tang PHEV winning its first monthly Best Seller award, while the Geely Emgrand EV jumped to the Silver medal. 

Here’s August Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

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#1 – BYD Tang PHEV: After only four months on the market, the second-generation Tang won its first Best Seller award, thanks to 5,043 registrations, the nameplate’s second best performance ever (record set in December’15, with 5,503 units). Sales should continue strong for the successful sports-SUV, and a new personal best could be achieved this year. As for the new generation, the BYD’s Cayenne saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things stayed the same, with some 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs. All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816.

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#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: The automaker bread and butter sedan got some updates and most importantly, a new battery (52 kWh) and motor (160 hp), increasing its range to 400kms / 250 mi NEDC (around 280 kms / 175 mi), and sales have reflected this, with 4,647 units in August, its best month since 2016. The best-selling Chinese brand (and Volvo owner) is betting on the model strongpoints, like its quality and technology, that compensate a middle-of-the-road design and price (CNY 218,300 / $31,834).

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#3 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 4,613 units in August (year best), allowing it to collect another Top 5 position last month. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle.


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#4 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with 4,487 deliveries in August in only its third month on the market, the BAIC EC-Series should have a fearsome competitor here. Are we witnessing the rise of the 2019 Best Selling model? I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in volume, than actual demand, sitting on the vortex of the two fastest selling segments (Compact Crossovers and EVs), with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

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#5 – JAC iEV S/E: JAC was one of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, and now it’s back at the game, registering 4,450 units last month. With a competitive price of USD 26,000 before incentives, this is a vehicle targeted at trendy urbanites that for some reason can’t reach a BYD Song or Roewe’s eRX5, getting in return a good-looking compact vehicle (Kia Soul-sized), with just enough power and range (114 hp & 251 kms/156 mi) to not to make it look bad. Interestingly, the word on the street is that JAC has export ambitions…

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Hawtai xEV

2018 ranking

There were several changes this month, the most important being the JAC iEV S/E climbing one position to Third Place, while both the Chery eQ and Geely Emgrand EV jumped three positions, to #7 and #8, respectively.

But the Climber of the Month was the BYD Tang, surging to #16, up 4 positions, with the Sports SUV looking for a Top 10 in 2018.

Other models on the rise were the Roewe Ei5, going up one position (#12), while the Hawtai EV160 is slowly, but steadily, climbing the ranking latter, now up to #13.

Two new models joined the Top 20, with the BYD Yuan EV jumping to #19 (will it reach the Top 10 this year?), and making it the 5th BYD on the ranking, while the Hawtai xEV is now #20, confirming Hawtai as the current market Dark Horse, no one mentions them, but they are making their way…

Outside the Top 20, a lot is going on, on the large sedan class, the Tesla Model S used to rule with no real competition, but now the Geely Borui GE PHEV (2,455 units last month) and BMW 530e (1,676) are leaving the Californian in the dust (288 deliveries for the Model S in August), and with the tariff war between the US and China raging on, do not expect any recovery soon, leaving the BMW and Geely alone for the race of the category best seller.

The Nio ES8 was the Best-Selling Luxury SUV last month (1,296 registrations), with the Tesla Model X delivering less than 200 units, so the new startup model can have a shot at removing Tesla from the yearly category leadership, it will be interesting to see how this works out.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%, up 1%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the new Tang and Yuan, while the runner-up BAIC (13%, down 1%), is still losing share, as the EC-Series struggles to get production in full swing, while the EX & EU-Series are unable to fully compensate the EC drop.

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the #4, Chery (6% share), and with BAIC now only 3% above it, the SAIC brand is now going after the Silver medal. 

Friday, September 21, 2018

Germany August 2018

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Cayenne PHEV: Going up

BMW and Porsche shine 

The German PEV passenger car market grew 23% in August, to 5,888 registrations, with BEVs growing slower (+13%) than PHEVs (31%). In 2018, all-electrics saw their share drop slightly to 0.9% share, while plug-in hybrids remained stable at 1%, making the total PEV share now at 1.9%.

Looking at August Best Sellers, BMW had another good month, placing two models in the podium, with the 225xe Active Tourer staying on top, with 707 deliveries, its third record performance in a row. Who said family-friendly MPVs weren't hip anymore?

The Renault Zoe was second, thanks to 421 deliveries, while the BMW i3 was Third, with 412 registrations.

But the surprise of the month regarded the new Porsche Cayenne PHEV, that with 298 deliveries (New personal best), was #8 last month, becoming the Best Selling Luxury PEV on the market, with the Second Best in the class being the Porsche Panamera PHEV, with 258 deliveries (Also new PB). Porsche is on a roll and this bodes well for the success of the upcoming Taycan BEV, so if i were Porsche, i would start right away in thinking to scale up the Taycan production, that is if they want to avoid a Herstellung Hölle...

BMW 225xe A. Tourer
Renault Zoe
BMW i3
Kia Soul EV
Smart Fortwo ED

Over the years, the German PEV market became known for its constant changes, but August took a break from that, with not a lot of changes in the Top 20, the main news were the BMW i3 climbing to Second Place, surpassing the VW e-Golf, that with 268 units, had its worst performance in over a year. 

The BMW 225xe AT is now ready to surpass the #5 Kia Soul EV, and if it continues at this pace, the MPV might even have a shot at getting to Third Place by year end.

Other changes were the #7 VW Passat GTE surpassing the Golf GTE stablemate, thanks to a record 328 units, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric jumped two positions, to #17, thanks to 138 registrations, its best result in the last 7 months.

There is a new model in the Top 20, with the Mini Countryman PHEV showing up in #19, but below this ranking, there is a rising star getting ready to join the best sellers, with the Porsche Cayenne PHEV just 222 units away from joining the Top 20, so we can celebrate its arrival by September, or October, the latest.

Porsche seems to have solved their batteries constraints, to the profit of the #12 Panamera PHEV, with the Sports Sedan having its best result ever, with 258 deliveries (52% of all the nameplate sales), and it won't be long until it surpasses the Mercedes E350e, thus becoming the best selling Luxury plugin in Germany.      

In the brands ranking, BMW (18%, up 1%) confirmed its leadership, ahead of Volkswagen (16%) while the #3 Smart (11%) has the Fourth Placed Kia (9%, down 1%) now further behind.