Monday, August 31, 2020

OEMs growth - July 2020

 The new Volkswagen ID.3

If the plugin market as a whole grew 76% in July, in that period, some OEMs grew above average, so this post mentions who was in the fast lane, last month.

Average in July: +76% growth YoY.

Fastest growers:

#1 - PSA (+2.477% YoY);

#2 - Ford Group (628%);

#3 - Volvo Group (360%);

#4 - Daimler (351%);

#5 - VW Group (268%).

For further information, Hyundai-Kia was up 91% YoY and Tesla 49%.

Of course, this simplistic approach is skewed to help smaller OEMs, because if you sold 2 units instead of 1, it means a 100% growth, hence the success of the Top 3 OEMs.

So the best approach is to look at total volume, and here, the OEMs that grew more regarding July 2019, volume wise, are:

#1 - VW Group (24.909);

#2 - Daimler (11.534);

#3 - Tesla (10.816).

If the first spot of the Volkswagen Group can surprise some, if you think about the sales uptick that the German Conglomerate had in the past year, it should come as no surprise, as the sheer scale of the Group means that a couple percent of electrification translates into several thousand units.

The real surprise, including for me, is the second place of the Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart), that just managed to overcome Tesla, mostly thanks to a surge in sales of the Smart brand, as well as the ramp up of the Mercedes PHEVs and even the EQC has started to be delivered in decent volumes.

Finally, Tesla. And a disclaimer. Because this is the first month of the quarter, one shouldn't read too much into these numbers, as the previous normal quarters (Q4 2019; Q1 2020) saw Tesla increasing the seasonality of sales, with lower than average numbers in the first two months, and then an end of quarter month with higher than usual deliveries, so i wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again this quarter.

Global Top 20 July 2020

 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação

Models: Tesla Model Y and Hyundai Kona EV shine in positive month

Registrations were finally up last month, by 76%, with plugin hybrids in particular jumping 106%, to 88.000 units, its highest growth rate since 2015, with the 248.000 units registered in July represented the 4th best result ever and the best July month so far, so one can say that the second half of the year has started on the right track, which is already having a positive impact on the YTD numbers, currently down by just 5% YoY, to 1,2 million, so we should see the plugin market end the year with positive numbers

The overall automotive market is also recovering, having dropped by just 7% last month, leading to a July PEV share of 3,7%, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3,0%, above the 2,5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the gravity that the subsequent economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

With BEV growth trailing behind PHEVs (+63% vs +106%), the BEV/PHEV breakdown saw plugin hybrids recover in July (36% share), allowing them to recover 1% in the YTD tally, to 67% BEV, 33% PHEV. 

With a helping hand from the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in July, doubling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback keeping its 10.000-ish" performances, while the Tesla Model Y won the monthly Bronze medal, thanks to 7.540 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to jump three spots in the Top 20, to #11, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September.

In other news, the Hyundai Kona EV is on fire, with the Korean crossover jumping to #4, thanks to a record 6.257 units, and the good news for pure electric models haven't ended here, as the #8 Audi e-Tron and #9 GAC Aion S have both surpassed the veteran Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, and with the #11 Tesla Model Y in ramp up mode, expect August to see just one plugin hybrid model in the Top 10.

Other models shining were the #5 VW e-Golf scoring a record 4.364 deliveries, an amazing result for a model on its last legs, the #14 Kia Niro EV was up 2 spots, thanks to a record 3,887 units score, while two Chinese models climbed positions in the table, with SAIC's MG ZS EV now in #16 and NIO's ES6 now in #18, highlighting the recovery of the Chinese EV market.

But there were also highlights on the plugin hybrid side, with the Volvo XC60 PHEV returning to the table, in #17, while the Ford Kuga / Escape PHEV benefited from its European operations to rise into #20, with a record 6.409 units to boot.

Outside the Top 20, a special reference to the Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV, that had 7.348 units in its first full sales month,and we should see it here next month, as there have been reports of over 15.000 deliveries in August, and if the 200.000 units production plan for this year do materialize, we should see it reach the Silver Medal by the end of the year, and it will be a strong candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title.

On the PHEV side, the models on the rise are the Volvo XC40 PHEV (3.908 units), Mercedes A250e (3.504) and BMW 330e (3.224), all personal best performances. 

The case of the BMW model is especially significant, despite an early arrival to market (it was introduced in 2015), the midsize Beemer has been sleepwalking since then, watching the presentation of the disruptive Tesla Model 3 (2016), its introduction to market (2017) and subsequent sucess (2018), with apparent indifference, with BMW not bothered to ramp up production and promote it accordingly. 

Now that disruption is starting to affect the European automotive market, the German maker is running from behind, trying to recover on the lost time, namely by (finally!) launching the all-important station wagon version of the PHEV into the market. Too little, too late?

Manufacturers: SAIC #2 in July

With such a high level of sales, June saw 10 brands score five-digit performances, and if Tesla's score isn't surprising, considering past performances, there were a few surprising scores, with three record performances: the #11 Mercedes registered 11.583 units, its first five-digit score, while both Korean brands shined, with Kia delivering 10.191 units and Hyundai 9.485.  

In the first half of the table, Shanghai Auto, or should i say, SAIC + SGMW(1), was the highlight, reaching the runner-up spot last month, with over 17.000 deliveries, distancing from the #6 Renault and inching closer to the #4 BYD.

If the Top 10 has remained stable, the lower half has seen some action, with GAC climbing to #13, while Ford's rise in the table continues, with the Dearborn maker climbing one position, to #17, thanks to 7.300 registrations, its third record performance in a row(!), and expect the American maker to continue climbing the ranking in the following months.

Another maker shining was Porsche, that had a record month in July, with 5.204 units. 

(1) - SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

Editor's note - Following readers suggestions, i have changed the coloring codes on the brands table:

Bold Blue - >90% BEV unit registrations;

Normal Blue - >50% BEV unit registrations;

Normal Black - >50% PHEV unit registrations;

Bold Black - >90% PHEV units registrations.

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Europe July 2020

Hyundai Kona recebe 20 mil encomendas e marca fica sem capacidade de  resposta - Pplware

(Another) Record Month 

The European passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered over 113,000 registrations in July (+213% YoY, highest growth rate in 5 years), the market's second record performance in a row, after the 93,000 registrations of June, placing last month plugin share at 8.7% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 8% (4.2% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019 and getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

This sales push is benefiting BEVs (53,694 units, +123% YoY and all-time record), but especially PHEVs, whose sales are jumping through the roof (+390%!), tilting the BEV/PHEV breakdown towards plugin hybrids, as they had 53% of the registrations in July, versus 47% in the YTD tally.

With September set to be another record month, it is starting to be realistic the prospect of seeing Europe's plugin market share end 2020 at 10%...

...And then it would be #Disruption '21!

With production in full speed mode and orders coming in large volumes, the Renault Zoe was again last month Best Seller, and with Renault now earning a fat profit on each one of them, expect the French car maker to continue activelly selling/milking the small hatchback in the coming months.

This Zoe win in July, added to the fresh units drought of the Tesla Model 3 in July, allowed the French EV to win a sizeable (12,000 units) advance over the Californian, that should only be able to reduced significantly in the Super-September month, the time where the much hyped VW ID.3 (finally) lands, trying to immediately secure the 3rd spot. 

Interestingly, we have one new face in the Top 5, with the Hyundai Kona EV only now joining the Best Sellers list, despite being one of the most interesting EVs around. 

Looking at June Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The record 9,388 deliveries in July are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, thanks to the recent incentive changes in a number of European markets, that added to the recent production ramp up at the Flins factory, allowed the Renault EV to benefit from a perfect storm (> incentives; > orders; > production) and score consistent 10,000-ish performances in the coming months. Back to July, the main markets were France (3,834 units), Germany (record 2,851 units) and the UK (900). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top position, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership . 

#2 Ford Kuga PHEV - Before the Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), Ford was something of a dead duck in Europe, with its record year happening in 2015, with 1,308 units...Not exactly stellar behavior, is it? But the Kuga PHEV has changed all that, in July the compact crossover scored an amazing 6,366 registrations, earning its third Best Selling PHEV monthly title in a row, each time beating its own personal record! How high will will the Kuga go?!? The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation were Germany (record 1,691 units), Denmark (1,660 units!!! What happened here?!?!) and the UK (record 1,000). With the Kuga PHEV usable electric range, competitive pricing (and is already being discounted in some countries...) the Ford model is now one of the best value for money plugin hybrids out there, so expect it to become a regular feature here. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production/battery constraints ever since it landed, a couple of years ago, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates for its small crossover, thanks to the Czech plant production, allowing a record 4,444 deliveries and its first podium standing. After the waiting list being finally emptied (September?), we will finally start to see the real demand level of the small crossover (3,000/month?). Back to July, Germany  was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,680 deliveries, followed by France (780 units), Norway (383) and The Netherlands (363). 

#4 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf scored a record(!) 4,153 units last month, with the veteran model seemingly immune to its announced sunset, as Volkswagen milks everything it can from it until the September volume landing of the ID.3 successor. Regarding July, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (record 2,633 units), The Netherlands (488) and Norway (201).

#Volvo XC40 PHEV – The compact Volvo continues to impress, after a looong production ramp up, now things are picking up quickly (excluding the pandemic-related period), with July registering 3,884 units it's second record performance in a row, with the biggest market for the Belgian-built Swede was France, with 609 units, with Sweden following, with 516 units, and The Netherlands also registering high volumes, with 402 units.

Novo Kuga é o primeiro plug-in da Ford | Auto Drive
Ford Kuga: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news on the top positions were the #5 Audi e-Tron closing in on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with only 38 units now separating them, so the big Audi could regain the SUV crown soon, while the Hyundai Kona EV jumped two positions, to #6.

But the Climber of the Month was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that shooted 7 spots, to #9, and now has its headlights set on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the current holder of the PHEV and SUV trophies, and if it won't get there by August, then in September it will be dead certain that it will surpass the veteran Japanese model. 

Still within the Top 10, the Kia Niro EV was up two spots, to #10, thanks to a record 3,371 registrations, highlighting a very positive month for the Korean Group, besides the aforementioned Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV rises, the Niro PHEV returned to the table, in #20, thanks to a record 1,812 registrations, in fact Hyundai-Kia had 6 models scoring four-digit performances (Hyundai Kona EV - 4,444; Kia Niro EV, - 3,371; Kia Niro PHEV - 1,812; Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 1,441 units and new record; Kia Ceed PHEV - 1,417 units and new record; Kia Soul EV - 1,002).

But the Korean Group wasn't the only to make such a feat, as Daimler and the BMW Group also had 6 models scoring 4-digit performances last month, while the VW Empire Group did even better, by having 10(!) models with 1,000-plus performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE, VW e-Up, Audi e-Tron, Audi A3 PHEV, Audi Q5 PHEV, Skoda Citigo EV, Skoda Superb PHEV, Porsche Taycan, Porsche Cayenne PHEV). 

The VW Group is starting to look like the best German soccer teams: What may they lack in talent, they make up in team (clock)work...Now, they only need a Beckenbauer (ahem, ID.3...) in the back, to pull the team forward.  

In other news, the #13 BMW 330e surpassed its pure electric stablemate, the i3, thanks to a year best score of 2,951 units (for once, BMW can say that its sports sedan outsold the Tesla Model 3...#sarcasm), while the small EV is continuing its slow fall into irrelevance, now that cheaper and equally exciting small EVs are available on the market.

The Volvo XC40 PHEV jumped 2 positions, to #15, thanks to a record 3,884 deliveries, but the Belgian-Swede wasn't the only one hitting record performances, in a peak month, personal bests were plentiful, among them, and not yet mentioned, there were the 2,442 units of the VW Passat GTE, the 1,670 units of the Audi A3 PHEV, another veteran unwilling to retire, or the 2,549 units of the VW e-Up, and if we add the triplets together (VW e-Up - 2,549; Skoda Citigo EV - 1,371; Seat e-Mii - 777), we get the nice amount of 4,697 deliveries in July, which would make it the 3rd Best Selling EV last month! Not only that, all three nameplates scored record performances in July, so it seems demand for the triplets is more than assured.

Outside the Top 20, the ramp up of several models is starting to gain relevance, like the Mercedes A250e, with the German PHEV registering a record 3,504 units, the BMW X1 PHEV, that delivered 2,281 units, or the Opel Grandland X PHEV (1,503), while on the BEV side, we have the refreshed MG ZS EV reaching a record 1,514 units, and on the top of the EV food chain, the Porsche Taycan had yet another record score, this time with 1,490 units. 

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with 4 brands separated by 1%, with 9% share we have Volkswagen and Renault, while with 8%, we now have BMW and Tesla...And right behind them, we have Volvo, with 7%!

So if the models race is hard to predict, the brands trophy is casino gambling!

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and it won't have significant competition until next year, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (104 units in July) will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker will be happy if it gets a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2 and has scored its best result this year, with 1,144 units in July, seeing its sales grow by 39% YoY, while the #3 Mercedes EQC is finally reaching decent volumes, having delivered a record 1,611 units last month, and it is now only 371 units behind the British Sports SUV, so we could see the Three-pointed-star EV reach Silver this year, after all.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,110 units last month, representing a 75% sales increase YoY, and while Tesla prepares the Model S & X  refresh for the end of September, the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units this year (4,605), as the Model S & X did...counted together!  

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

China July 2020

 Mini carro elétrico apoiado pela GM recebe 50 mil pedidos; conheça

A Star In Born

 And they are not the flashy Xpeng P7 (1,725 units) or BYD Han EV (1,205), but something far more humble. But more on that below...

 The overall Chinese market went back to positive numbers in July (+9% YoY), with plugins faring much better, growing 48% last month, to 95,000 units, a new year best, with BEVs in particular jumping 65%, to 75,000, while plugin hybrids grew a shy 5%, to 20,000.

 Expect the next months to see a confirmation of the growth trend, as July ‘19 was the first month with the current subsidy rules.

 July was the best selling month this year, and it shows, as July’s plugin share reached 5.7% (4.5% BEV), pulling slightly up the 2020 share, to 4.8% (3.8% BEV), which is still below from the 5.5% of 2019, but it is a step in the right direction and hopefully the second half of the year will bring the possibility to (at least) reach last year's score.

Looking at July Best Sellers, we have 3 compact-to-midsize sedans ( #1 Tesla Model 3, #3 GAC Aion S and #5 BYD Qin Pro EV) and 2 city EVs, both from the same stable (the SAIC-GM-Wuling conglomerate), the known Baojun E-Series in 4th, and the new Wuling Mini EV, a tiny, cheap EV that is sure to make seismic waves on the market, reaching immediately the runner-up spot right in first its full sales month...

Here’s July’s Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 11,575 units (including a few imports), and while it’s not its all time best, Tesla’s midsizer is firmly above the 10,000 mark. And the Model 3 is starting to get in the way of the category Best Sellers in the overall market, as the Californian was ahead of the Audi A4 and not that far-off from the BMW 3-Series (14,351 units and Mercedes C-Class (14,633), so the Tesla sports sedan still has some room to grow. Will we see it reach some 15,000 units/month cruise speed this year? Another question is, will Tesla deliver a surprise performance in September? Mmmm...Discuss.

#2 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

 A big name for such a small car (is it a compensation thing?), the Wuling EV, let’s call it that way, scored 7,348 units in its first full sales month, a record landing, that is only the tip of the iceberg, as this vehicle is currently the one with highest amount of reservations in China (about 50,000 have already been ordered), and deliveries in August are already above 15,000! So, what is the secret? Well, from the start, it is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people (or 3 people and a bit of cargo, or 2 with a fair amount of cargo – 741 liters), in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm/114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV, sure, range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles! At this price level, the Wuling EV is in position to be a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers, i mean, for 4,200 US Dollars, one can have an electric four seater vehicle, with a ceiling to protect you in rainy days! This Wuling EV could be a game changer for many, and in the overall EV market, it can beat the best and brightest in sales volumes...


#3 – GAC Aion S

GAC’s sleek sedan was 3rd in July, having registered 3,685 units (excluding the Toyota-badged iA5 units), so we could start to see now the sleek sedan cuise speed (+/- 3,500 units/month), now that GAC has their attention drawn into the Aion S new crossover sibling, the Aion V (1,069 units last month). One of the most competitive domestic electric sedans on the market, the Aion S should continue to be a regular in this Top 5, being a strong candidate to the 2020 medals positions.

#4 – Baojun E-Series

Baojun works as the more upmarket and hip version of Wuling, and thanks to their E-Series (E100/200/300) lineup of City EVs, the SGMW (SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture) offspring has seen its EV sales jump in the past few months, winning a 4th spot in July, thanks to 3,416 units last month. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model for young urban dwellers, as well as car-sharing companies and other kind of fleets. 


#5 – BYD Qin Pro EV

The maker’s reply to the GAC Aion S and Xpeng P7 reached  3,400 units in July, so BYD’s bet on its electric sedan to stay among the Best Sellers is working, but demand could end up being an issue soon, not only because of the ever increasing competition from other makers, but also because of the internal competition of the new Han full size car, an appealing and technologically advanced model that might move way some buyers from its smaller sibling.


EV Sales: China June 2020


Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium positions remained the same, with Tesla already having enough advantage to start preparing the celebrations for its first Best Selling Model trophy ceremony, while the Baojun E-Series rise and rise continued, climbing now to the 4th position, supassing the BMW 530Le. 

This move highlights the latest trend, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Baojun E-Series, but also with the Greal Wall Ora R1, now called Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that scored 2,771 units in July, its best result in over a year, and now making 3 small BEVs in the Top 9.

And another Micro-EV is getting there too, as the previously mentioned Wuling HongGuang Mini EV joined the table in #13, and should be headed soon for the runner-up spot, as only the leader Tesla Model 3 is too far away (50,000 units away, to be more precise) to be bothered by it.   

And it wasn’t only with the SGMW minions that Shanghai Auto had reasons to smile about, as its MG ZS EV was also up, in this case to #16, while NIO saw its ES6 best seller climb to #6.

BYD also had a somewhat positive month, with the e2 compact hatchback hitting a Year Best 1,534 units, a new year best, while the #19 Tang PHEV also reached a Year Best (1,305 units), and the Song Pro EV hit a record 1,198 units, while its PHEV sibling had a Year Best of 1,102 units.

Finally, BYD celebrated the landing of its Han EV flagship sedan, with the first 1,205 registrations.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the ramp-up mode Xpeng P7 (1,725 units in July), the 1,269 units of the VW e-Bora, while the NIO barge flagship SUV, the ES8, scored 963 units last month, mostly thanks to the new 100 kWh version, which begs the question: Why isn’t Tesla making the Model S & X in China?!?

If the Model 3 only found its true potential in China, once it started to be made locally, the same can happen to both of the top of the range Teslas, even leaving plugin hybrid models out of the equation, like the #5 BMW 530Le or the #10 Li Xiang One, the fact is that both Teslas are being trounced in China, the Model X is the only of the two that is being delivered in significant volumes, and yet, it has only delivered 2,010 units this year, well below the 3,381 of the NIO ES8, and last month, the recently landed Audi e-Tron, still being imported from Belgium, outsold it on a 3-to-1 basis...The picture for the Model S is even darker, its two digit performances mean that it is being outsold by the recently landed Porsche Taycan, and a certain BYD Han EV landed last month with 1,205 units! 1,205!!!

“Yeah, but the volumes for the full size segments do not justify the hassle for local manufacturing...” – some might say.

That is true for the USA or Europe, but not in China, where big cars still sell well, just to give you context, the locally made Mercedes E-Class (88,647 units this year) is selling at the same pace of the locally made Mercedes C-Class (87,903), so if Tesla could sell as much Model S as it is doing Model 3’s in China, that would be an additional 100,000 units in volume! For one model, in one market! It’s as much as the Model Y will do next year in China...Elon, if you’re reading this...

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the market is becoming ever more fragmented, with BYD (15%, down 1%) still in the leadership, but slowly losing charge, with Tesla (13%, down 1%) in 2nd.

SAIC (12%, up 2%) is 3rd, although i should say, SAIC+SGMW are in the 3rd spot, because if we remove the joint-venture small EV models from the SAIC tally, the Shanghai maker would have only 6% share, same as the SAIC-GM-Wuling conglomerate. Technicalities, technicalities....SAIC could just make the whole thing simpler and buy the rest of the joint-venture. Better yet, SAIC. Just buy Wuling and the whole General Motors outright!...

Below the podium, Volkswagen (6%, down 1%) is holding on #4, with GAC (6%) closing in, while BAIC and BMW are both down to 4%, with NIO, also with 4%, waiting for a chance to climb higher.