Record Month in PHEV-friendly market
In normal years, the summer months of July and August signal a slowdown in registrations, as most buyers go on holidays...Only, 2020 is not a normal year, and with the pandemic-related disruption now in the past, the Belgian automotive market (-1% YoY) is back at normal numbers, and plugins resumed the fast lane, having beaten their own sales record for two months in a row (June and July), with last month scoring a best ever score of 3.695 units, a three-fold increase over the same month last year, pulling the YTD registration numbers to 18.219 units.
July's PEV share (8,3%), pulled the 2020 PEV share to 7%, well above the 3,2% share of last year, while this market returned to its PHEV addiction, as they represented 69% of registrations last month (66% in 2020).
Last month trend in this market were compact SUVs and locally-made models, with the local hero Volvo XC40 PHEV in the intersection of both trends, winning July's Best Seller status, with 374 units, allowing it to close in on the #2 Tesla Model 3, just 13 units ahead, and the current leader BMW X5 PHEV, 255 units away, so we could see the compact Volvo reach #1 soon.
Speaking of BMW, the recent X1 PHEV was 2nd last month, with a record 248 deliveries, allowing it to jump to #12, but the highest position change happened in #6, where the Audi e-Tron, 3rd in July with a record 182 registrations, climbed 3 positions, reaching Sixth.
Other models on the rise were Skoda Superb PHEV, up to #10, while the Ford Kuga PHEV continues its upwards trend, jumping three spots, to #14, while the Mercedes A250e joined the ranking, in #18, thanks to a record 154 units.
In a PHEV-friendly market, another trend is also visible, with this market being tilted towards the high end of the market, as we only have one small model in this Top 20, the #4 Renault Zoe, while 70% of the models in this Top 20 belong to the D-Segment (midsize) and above.
Outside the Top 20, a reference to two BEVs that are on track to join this Top 20, with the Hyundai Kona EV scoring a record 129 units, while the Porsche Taycan performed 142 deliveries, its highest result so far.
It's sad that you don't want to publish separate BEV and PHEV Top20, as this Belgium Top20 contains almost no BEV so is completely meaningless.ReplyDelete
I would like to know how all the other BEVs are selling (e208, corsa-e, e-up, ...).
We are all here for the BEVs not for the PHEVs, which are a temporary stopgap anyway.
Speak for yourself only.Delete
I am here to understand the depth of PEV spread in the world markets.
It remains to be seen, what kinds of personal transportations/vehicles will make the majority of the world fleets by 2040-2050. At least, I do not expect lithium batteries, induction motors or indeed electric motors using rare earths to be of any undisputed spread by then, they are just a temporary stopgap anyway.
Stopgap to what? What do you think other than electric motors (be it induction, permanent magnet, reluctance, electrically excited, ...) could drive cars in the future?Delete
And there is very little doubt that BEVs will be dominant around the end of this decade and after. (And almost certainly using lithium batteries -- though we *might* possibly see other chemistries further down the line...)
Stopgap to what? Stopgap to the next evolution step on engineering.Delete
Electric motors have been around for many decades. There are many types of electric motors, and newer types always coming online, like the YASA type that has less than a decade. Other than that, same way not all vehicles are powered by ICE, or indeed the same type of ICE, the same will be for vehicles in future to only powered by electric motors.
If you are so certain that BEVs will be more than 50% of the vehicle world fleet in 2030, that's better that you have, at least, the 0,00000000000001% fraction of the business, otherwise you aren't going to earn that much by then.
I have have been noticing that you love to publicly spread here your ignorance on multiple matters, seldom related with vehicle powertrains and society in general, I am deeply sure you don't hold any degree in engineering, neither you have a reasonable work experience or indeed life experience.
WE ARE ALWAYS LEARNING EVERYDAY, EVEN AGAINST OUR OWN WILL, SOMETIMES.
Last bit for your own reflection:
Toyota (almost 0 BEV sales), seldom sales 10 million vehicles on a yearly basis, the Volkswagen group (not even reaches half million BEVs) on their also 10 million yearly sales, next is Renault/Nissan with maybe 0,5 million BEVs in their 10 million yearly sales - these are just the 3 biggest carmaker sellers in the world by now, so you are giving them all 9 years to shift their 30 million ICE sales anual rate to, at least a combined 10 million BEVs sales by 2030? You are nuts! Not even mediocre Tesla will be selling 10 million BEVs by 2030.
I do, in fact, hold an engineering degree, fucknut. The ignorance is all yours.Delete
Starting with history. Electric motors have been in use for more than 150 years; and electric vehicles for about 130. But sure, someone will suddenly invent a magic pixie dust drive, that will crash on the scene and obsolete electric propulsion within a decade or two...
In fact, the induction motor you mentioned specifically has been around (in the commonly used polyphase AC implementation) for about 132 years. (Ever heard of this guy named Nikola Tesla?...)
Of course electric motors evolve over time, and new types are being introduced -- as with any technology. Indeed Tesla has already changed their main motor technology once in their short history; as have some other EV makers. That doesn't in any way change the fact that BEVs, using whatever specific type of electric motors, will be dominant within a decade, while PHEVs are a transitional technology that will soon be irrelevant.
You are perfectly right that it's unclear whether major legacy makers will manage to produce 10 million BEVs a year by 2030... But that only means they will cede market share to others that are moving quicker. Tesla for example has been growing unit sales by an average of 50% annually -- a simple extrapolation shows that they alone could be producing some 30 million vehicles per year by 2030, if nobody else steps up in a major way.
Anonymous & Antrik: Keep it civil, ok? No name calling, please.Delete
As for the subject at hand: The future is always uncertain, especially in the current times, or did someone 12 months ago could guess 2020 would be like it is going?
So, you might think that your view of the future is the right one, but that doesn't give you the right to say the others are wrong, because "Tomorrow never knows".
That is why when those Tesla minions say that Tesla will rule the world and all of us will be driving/be driven in Teslas soon, i laugh, but i do not say they are liars, because i haven't been in the future, so i can't rule out that posibility.
Great to hear colleague. Besides that, I already worked for a couple of carmakers.Delete
I am well aware of Nikola Tesla and his work. Great minds also do mistakes, but induction motors aren't well suited for performance endurances. And tossing away money isn't also a greater move either.
On the Tesla subject, they certainly can do lots of million vehicles, but they will need to do the same way as all the other carmakers need do: build hundereds of factories, employ large volumes of machines & people, attract financing, engage with external suppliers, deal with people, governamental bodies and everything in between, plan a lot, pray that everything goes according to plan, get in bed with the enemie(s), have enough money on hand to pay the fixed costs and many more, because Tomorrow Never Knows is a given.
Of course induction motors have some downsides. (As do other types of electric motors...) There is a reason why Tesla switched their primary motors to a different technology; and might very well switch the secondary ones as well in the future -- perhaps even already in the Plaid power train expected to be unveiled in the next couple of months... Lucid for example recently claimed there were able to reduce cogging in their permanent magnet motors by two thirds, thus removing the penalty for using them on the second axle as well. These things keep evolving.Delete
The point however is that regardless of the minutiae of specific electric motor types, there is no doubt that virtually all vehicles will be using some variant thereof within a decade -- and almost certainly powered by batteries. Unless there is actually some other viable technology on the horizon, there is no point in suggesting that something else might be dominant in a decade or two.
As for production ramping, I never said it would be easy. But Tesla managed fine thus far -- and there is no reason to assume they won't be able going forward.Delete
Funny thing is, when Tesla a couple of years ago first announced an ambition to build half a million cars in 2020, a certain (inexplicably) prominent short seller claimed this would require by far the fastest ramp-up of any large-scale production in history... Well then, I guess Tesla broke another record? :-)
@José regarding name calling, "Tesla minions" is not exactly a neutral term... It would imply that the supporters are controlled by Tesla -- which is something haters actually claim occasionally, but is of course complete nonsense.Delete
Encouraging start to 2020-H2. Thank you Belgium. Seems Tesla ship is still in Atlantic.ReplyDelete
Europe is Engineland and the plugin hybrids are not going to cede the share to BEV especially with Tesla being idle there and not much info about VW ID.3 sale start date.
Anyway Belgium is a smaller market and when the info for France comes, BEVs will turn the tide.
Today Cadillac reveals its Lyriq BEV crossover at 19:00 EST / 23:00 GMT. Please watch and its a show of support for a BEV. Of course the sale will be only in 2022. Only based on the customer response GM may decide to produce or not, thats why an established company with so many plants are taking so much time between reveal and sale.ReplyDelete
This is Cadillacs 3 PEV (ELR and CT6-Plugin being the 1st 2) and 1st BEV and they have clean plans with a crossover which is the best selling segment unlike the ELR coupe and CT6 sedan.
Sorry, I missed it. But the write-up I have read suggests to me that it's going to be just another disappointment :-( Who would want to pay an ultra-luxury price in 2022 for a mere 300 miles range and 150 kW charging?...Delete
I think BEV cars are highlited by blue colour in the table aboveReplyDelete
PHEV will disappear in this market as they become less tax-friendly.ReplyDelete
Is there a specific change coming up regarding this?Delete