Thursday, August 27, 2020

Europe July 2020

Hyundai Kona recebe 20 mil encomendas e marca fica sem capacidade de  resposta - Pplware

(Another) Record Month 

The European passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered over 113,000 registrations in July (+213% YoY, highest growth rate in 5 years), the market's second record performance in a row, after the 93,000 registrations of June, placing last month plugin share at 8.7% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 8% (4.2% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019 and getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

This sales push is benefiting BEVs (53,694 units, +123% YoY and all-time record), but especially PHEVs, whose sales are jumping through the roof (+390%!), tilting the BEV/PHEV breakdown towards plugin hybrids, as they had 53% of the registrations in July, versus 47% in the YTD tally.

With September set to be another record month, it is starting to be realistic the prospect of seeing Europe's plugin market share end 2020 at 10%...

...And then it would be #Disruption '21!

With production in full speed mode and orders coming in large volumes, the Renault Zoe was again last month Best Seller, and with Renault now earning a fat profit on each one of them, expect the French car maker to continue activelly selling/milking the small hatchback in the coming months.

This Zoe win in July, added to the fresh units drought of the Tesla Model 3 in July, allowed the French EV to win a sizeable (12,000 units) advance over the Californian, that should only be able to reduced significantly in the Super-September month, the time where the much hyped VW ID.3 (finally) lands, trying to immediately secure the 3rd spot. 

Interestingly, we have one new face in the Top 5, with the Hyundai Kona EV only now joining the Best Sellers list, despite being one of the most interesting EVs around. 

Looking at June Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The record 9,388 deliveries in July are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, thanks to the recent incentive changes in a number of European markets, that added to the recent production ramp up at the Flins factory, allowed the Renault EV to benefit from a perfect storm (> incentives; > orders; > production) and score consistent 10,000-ish performances in the coming months. Back to July, the main markets were France (3,834 units), Germany (record 2,851 units) and the UK (900). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top position, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership . 

#2 Ford Kuga PHEV - Before the Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), Ford was something of a dead duck in Europe, with its record year happening in 2015, with 1,308 units...Not exactly stellar behavior, is it? But the Kuga PHEV has changed all that, in July the compact crossover scored an amazing 6,366 registrations, earning its third Best Selling PHEV monthly title in a row, each time beating its own personal record! How high will will the Kuga go?!? The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation were Germany (record 1,691 units), Denmark (1,660 units!!! What happened here?!?!) and the UK (record 1,000). With the Kuga PHEV usable electric range, competitive pricing (and is already being discounted in some countries...) the Ford model is now one of the best value for money plugin hybrids out there, so expect it to become a regular feature here. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production/battery constraints ever since it landed, a couple of years ago, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates for its small crossover, thanks to the Czech plant production, allowing a record 4,444 deliveries and its first podium standing. After the waiting list being finally emptied (September?), we will finally start to see the real demand level of the small crossover (3,000/month?). Back to July, Germany  was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,680 deliveries, followed by France (780 units), Norway (383) and The Netherlands (363). 

#4 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf scored a record(!) 4,153 units last month, with the veteran model seemingly immune to its announced sunset, as Volkswagen milks everything it can from it until the September volume landing of the ID.3 successor. Regarding July, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (record 2,633 units), The Netherlands (488) and Norway (201).

#Volvo XC40 PHEV – The compact Volvo continues to impress, after a looong production ramp up, now things are picking up quickly (excluding the pandemic-related period), with July registering 3,884 units it's second record performance in a row, with the biggest market for the Belgian-built Swede was France, with 609 units, with Sweden following, with 516 units, and The Netherlands also registering high volumes, with 402 units.

Novo Kuga é o primeiro plug-in da Ford | Auto Drive
Ford Kuga: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news on the top positions were the #5 Audi e-Tron closing in on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with only 38 units now separating them, so the big Audi could regain the SUV crown soon, while the Hyundai Kona EV jumped two positions, to #6.

But the Climber of the Month was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that shooted 7 spots, to #9, and now has its headlights set on the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, the current holder of the PHEV and SUV trophies, and if it won't get there by August, then in September it will be dead certain that it will surpass the veteran Japanese model. 

Still within the Top 10, the Kia Niro EV was up two spots, to #10, thanks to a record 3,371 registrations, highlighting a very positive month for the Korean Group, besides the aforementioned Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV rises, the Niro PHEV returned to the table, in #20, thanks to a record 1,812 registrations, in fact Hyundai-Kia had 6 models scoring four-digit performances (Hyundai Kona EV - 4,444; Kia Niro EV, - 3,371; Kia Niro PHEV - 1,812; Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 1,441 units and new record; Kia Ceed PHEV - 1,417 units and new record; Kia Soul EV - 1,002).

But the Korean Group wasn't the only to make such a feat, as Daimler and the BMW Group also had 6 models scoring 4-digit performances last month, while the VW Empire Group did even better, by having 10(!) models with 1,000-plus performances (VW e-Golf, VW Passat GTE, VW e-Up, Audi e-Tron, Audi A3 PHEV, Audi Q5 PHEV, Skoda Citigo EV, Skoda Superb PHEV, Porsche Taycan, Porsche Cayenne PHEV). 

The VW Group is starting to look like the best German soccer teams: What may they lack in talent, they make up in team (clock)work...Now, they only need a Beckenbauer (ahem, ID.3...) in the back, to pull the team forward.  

In other news, the #13 BMW 330e surpassed its pure electric stablemate, the i3, thanks to a year best score of 2,951 units (for once, BMW can say that its sports sedan outsold the Tesla Model 3...#sarcasm), while the small EV is continuing its slow fall into irrelevance, now that cheaper and equally exciting small EVs are available on the market.

The Volvo XC40 PHEV jumped 2 positions, to #15, thanks to a record 3,884 deliveries, but the Belgian-Swede wasn't the only one hitting record performances, in a peak month, personal bests were plentiful, among them, and not yet mentioned, there were the 2,442 units of the VW Passat GTE, the 1,670 units of the Audi A3 PHEV, another veteran unwilling to retire, or the 2,549 units of the VW e-Up, and if we add the triplets together (VW e-Up - 2,549; Skoda Citigo EV - 1,371; Seat e-Mii - 777), we get the nice amount of 4,697 deliveries in July, which would make it the 3rd Best Selling EV last month! Not only that, all three nameplates scored record performances in July, so it seems demand for the triplets is more than assured.

Outside the Top 20, the ramp up of several models is starting to gain relevance, like the Mercedes A250e, with the German PHEV registering a record 3,504 units, the BMW X1 PHEV, that delivered 2,281 units, or the Opel Grandland X PHEV (1,503), while on the BEV side, we have the refreshed MG ZS EV reaching a record 1,514 units, and on the top of the EV food chain, the Porsche Taycan had yet another record score, this time with 1,490 units. 

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with 4 brands separated by 1%, with 9% share we have Volkswagen and Renault, while with 8%, we now have BMW and Tesla...And right behind them, we have Volvo, with 7%!

So if the models race is hard to predict, the brands trophy is casino gambling!

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and it won't have significant competition until next year, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (104 units in July) will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker will be happy if it gets a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2 and has scored its best result this year, with 1,144 units in July, seeing its sales grow by 39% YoY, while the #3 Mercedes EQC is finally reaching decent volumes, having delivered a record 1,611 units last month, and it is now only 371 units behind the British Sports SUV, so we could see the Three-pointed-star EV reach Silver this year, after all.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,110 units last month, representing a 75% sales increase YoY, and while Tesla prepares the Model S & X  refresh for the end of September, the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units this year (4,605), as the Model S & X did...counted together!  


  1. Very exciting to watch indeed!

    I disagree on the casino gamble for the brands. Volkswagen will come in first, minimum 30% ahead of the second. Any one wants to take a bet?

    1. If we're talking globally, I highly doubt it. Tesla has 28% BEV share already, up from 23% last year and, IIRC, 19% in 2018. They will have production capacity for over 1M by the end of next year. VW is still under 100k. I think they stated their goal was 300k within 3 years (stated last year), which means they anticipate 1/3 of Tesla's production by 2022.

      Maybe if you meant VW will end up with 30% a decade or so from now *IF* they make a massive concerted effort, it's not impossible. I still doubt it.

    2. Anonymous: Me and Flow were talking about Europe, not globally.

    3. VW Golf 8 Ladhybrid entered the party.

    4. You are the typical Tesla paid liar fake news agent.

      VW has right in this moment already topped 100k plugin deliveries and by your claim, VW must now stop any more deliveries for the rest of the year.

    5. Anonymous: Just to be clear, who is paying me? Tesla or the Anti-Tesla shorters?

      I need to know that, so i can declare that income on my tax returns...Oh, and by the way, which Bank in the Cayman Islands is the money going to?

    6. Does VW have any more models scheduled this year? Because ID.3 alone should not be sufficient to give it a 30% lead over Renault, if Zoe sales keep going like that...

    7. @José I think the Anonymous hater was referring to the other Anonymous poster, not you...

      (And they are talking past each other anyway, since one was talking about BEV sales, the other about PEV sales...)

  2. Something seems fishy about the figures. If one adds up the Top 20 for July and YTD, you get 63,106 and 306,649, respectively. Adding in the Others figures, one gets Total amounts of 124,859 and 568,628 instead of 113,659 and 514,959. ????

    1. You're right, there was a mistake in the formula, the table is now corrected.

  3. big 113659, bravo europeans. hope it will hit 1 million mark by the end of the year.
    kuga has outlander in sights. so many BEVs are taking aim at outlander.
    very well, europe could end up as plugin land.

    others sold 215720 YTD. with the 20th model selling 7410 units, even if all the models in others sold 7409 (1 less) units, at least 29 models are there. so totally with 49 models, if 215720 units are sold, then the average works out to 3922 units in the 1st 7 months and thats average of 560 units/month. automakers have to figure out ways to sell more to get the ROI on design, development and deliveries.

    1. Many of them are BEV versions of regular ICE models, like the case of the PSA models (Peugeot 208 EV, Opel Corsa EV, etc)

  4. "Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units this year (4,605), as the Model S & X did...counted together!"

    anytime, anywhere, any metric: Tesla Model S is superior to Taycan.
    Model S: 402 mile / 643 km range. 50 km/l. 0-100 km/h in 2.3 seconds
    Taycan : 203 mile / 325 km range. 29 km/l. 0-100 km/h in 2.4 seconds

    Click on this link

    Seems all the executives in VW, its suppliers, its dealers, governments and other related industries bought Taycan in company cost, otherwise there is no way Model S can be behind.

    There were regular incremental updates on Model S, check this link
    Between 2012 and 2020
    Range increased from 265 miles / 424 km to 402 miles / 643 km.
    MPGe increased from 89 to 117.
    AWD is standard now.
    And there are many more like faster supercharging, removal of false grill ...

    Even Adolf Hitler accepts

    Divide MPGe / 2.36 to get km/l equivalent.
    1 gallon = 3.78 l
    1 mile = 1.6 km
    = 3.78 / 1.6 = 2.36

    1. I can't understand this fixation with "Bigger, Better, More" that some people have, the truth is that there are other aspects in cars that make people prefer other cars/brands, it reminds me the horsepower races US brands had in the past, it worked for them in North America, but the truth is that outside that geography, those US cars tanked.

      Why? Well, the rest of the world isn't obsessed with pure specs. Price, design, reliability, interior space, among other features, also have a big role, something that helps to explain the current sales behavior of the Model S/X versus other models.

      The sad/concerning thing about this isn't the fact that the Model S is being outsold by another model, sales leaders are being overrun all the time, but the fact that the Model S is being outsold by a niche and expensive product like the Taycan, if the Porsche can do it, imagine what the future Mercedes EQE will do...

    2. @Jose Pontes the respectable gentleman
      With BEVs, 1 thing we all can agree is 1. range, 2. price, 3. size, 4. speed.
      Model S excels in #1, #2 & #4. In 3. size its smaller, but offers 5+2 seating while Taycan offers 4+1.
      Thats why its hard to believe how Model S is behind, may be covid disruption or as I mentioned the VAG, suppliers and dealers are going in for Taycan.

      At least some in European media appreciates the PEVs of european automaker.
      But in USA, everyday the media is thrashing Tesla with smoke coming out of their ears, nose and mouth. Anyway with Lucid coming out with Air with an estimated 800 km range, Tesla may go for a redesign of Model S.

      Monday; 2020-08-31 is the 1st stock split of Tesla.

    3. Or maybe people just like the Taycan better?...

      Speaking for myself, the Model S is still my favorite Tesla, that is why i'm cheering for it to be updated, but if money wasn't a problem, and i had access to a fast-charging network like Ionity and Electrify America, i would prefer the Taycan over the Model S, it's just a more appealing model to me...

      The Taycan 4S version with the large battery has enough range for me, and as for speed, well...anything below 6 secs in 0-100 km/h is more than fast enough for me.

      And there should be more like me out there, so...

      Regarding the Tesla bashing in the USA, well i can't really say anything, because i'm not there, but...Looking from the outside to the US, i believe there are more important things for Americans to think about right now, than Tesla or EVs...Like, what kind of country Americans want in the future.

      (I never imagined to write these lines about the "Land of the Free"...)

    4. It's really hard to compare the Taycan to Model S. The Model S is a family sedan; while the Taycan is much more of a sports car, sacrificing practicality for performance... The fact that it doesn't actually outperform the current performance Model S in most regards, and is way behind the Air or (presumably) the Plaid Model S, both coming soon, is frankly quite embarrassing.

    5. @antrik: Historically, Porsche was never about doing the best 0-100 km/h scores, or having the most powerful model, they let that department to Italian (or British) exotica.

      On the other hand, i agree with you that the Porsche Taycan is a niche product, never meant to sell in large volumes, so the fact that it is outselling the Model S in many markets is embarassing...For the mainstream Model S.

  5. How do you know Renault is making a fat profit on every Zoe?
    I mean, that's great news, but I wasn't able to find any information about it...


      See in the last paragraphs of that article.

    2. pushevs just throws out claims based on internet myth without giving any factual proof, like Renault makes no profit at all.

    3. Anonymous: And your reasoning is?...

    4. In one of the comments Pedro actually hints at how he arrives at his profit figures: just takes the prices of related combustion models, applies his own (highly optimistic) guesses for battery price, and concludes profits... Which is just bullshit. And that's just one of the nonsensical things he writes in this (and follow-up) comments.

      While Pedro is good at scouting out interesting information, anything he says that isn't directly backed by other sources, take with a *huge* grain of salt. From his various claims about battery technology (which I have a decent grasp on), I know for a fact that he makes a lot of strong statements based on limited understanding and wild guesses.

  6. Do you think the Polestar will remain a niche player for now or in general? Cause I'm sure it will become Top 10 in this list easily once production gets flowing.

    1. This year, it will be a niche player.

      Next year, initial production targets were 50.000 units globally, which is not a lot. Also, the Luqiao plant, where the Polestar 2 is made, is also busy with the Lynk & Co models and the China-made Volvo XC40, so unless they move production elsewhere (there had been talks in the past in moving production to the Ghent plant, in Belgium), there won't be much room to increase production.

  7. May I ask what is your sourcing data?
    856 Tesla Model 3 sold in Europe seems very low.

    1. There's simply no inventory to supply, as Tesla supply chain in Europe is still suffering from the factory shutdown of last spring.

      For example, Portugal and Finland had no Model 3's available for delivery during the whole month of July, due to completely depleted inventory.

      Expect things to go back to normal in August, with the first fresh units, with September having a higher than normal high-tide.

  8. Is there any possibility to see this table online?

    The reason is that I would like to see other brands after the top 20 that agglutinate 42%, surely they are minimal but to see other brands not as well known as their penetration in the European market

    1. You can get the full data at the (commercial) sister site -- see the banner at the bottom of the page.

  9. I don't think there is much hope for Model 3 to take the top this quarter. With 7 boats arriving in Europe, we should expect something on the order of 25,000 Model 3 deliveries. This would only surpass Zoe if that one delivered less than 13,000 units in August and September combined -- which seems highly unlikely...

    Things might get interesting again in Q4, though :-)

  10. Regarding demand for the e-Up! and its siblings, VW has stopped taking orders for these (at least in Germany), with the back-log currently standing at 16 months... Officially because further units ordered now might not be delivered in time to take advantage of the doubled incentive. (Which runs out at the end of 2021.)

    Though the real reason might be that VW reportedly loses 5,000 Euros on every unit, and thus has no interest in selling more of them once they have enough production of more profitable models to fulfil emission standards...