Thursday, October 31, 2019

Global Top 20 September

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Models: Tesla and BMW shine

After the historic August drop, registrations were again down in September, this time by 8% YoY, to some 183.000 units, mostly due to the subsidy-related drop in China, and the USA market is not helping too.

The worst news of the month was that BEVs were down, if only by 1%, possibly for the first time ever, but on the other hand, the PHEV crisis seems to be flattening out (only 23% down last month).

As a result, the PEV share stayed at 2,3% last month, inline with the 2019 PEV share of 2,3%, which itself is slightly lower than the record 2,4% it had in June. Maybe Q4 brings the needed uptick to put back the pluging share in record levels?

In the context of these dark clouds hanging over the PEV market, few models have reasons to celebrate, but nevertheless, the Tesla lineup had a positive month, not only the Model 3 had a near record performance, staying just 431 units of its June score (39.632 units), but the other two models also climbed positions, with the Model X jumping two positions, to #15, while the Model S flagship rejoined the table, in #20.

But the climber of the month was the BMW i3, shooting 4 spots, to #10, while another BMW continues on the rise, with the 530e/Le twins reaching #7, thanks to a record 6.127 units. With the #5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV some 1.700 units away, if the big Bimmer continues to step up the pace, it might be able to dethrone the Japanese SUV from the Best Selling PHEV throne.

Another model on the rise is the Toyota Prius PHEV, now up to #13, that is climbing positions thanks to the sales dry up of a few Chinese EVs.

Manufacturers: Tesla and BMW shine (x2)

September saw the leader Tesla reach another record month this year, with 49.821 units, while below it, we have a surprise, with BMW reaching the runner-up spot, with 14.289 units, a new year best, a score that was enough to beat the Chinese armada (BYD, BAIC and SAIC) that sits above it on the YTD table.

With the new 330e model landing last month, and the new X5 PHEV starting soon, the German maker should have a strong last quarter of the year, repeating a few more podium positions in the next three months, although it should be hard to recover the 4th spot from SAIC.

Another surprise is the rise of Nissan to #6, all thanks to the sales demise of Geely, something that #14 Renault is also benefitting, having surpassed three Chinese makers in a row.

Still, there was one Chinese OEM shining, with GAC profiting from the hot Aion S to rise to #19, thanks to 4.010 units. 

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Europe September 2019

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Tesla Model 3 breaks records in hot market

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 59,000 registrations in September (+76%), with BEVs stepping up the pace (+109%), and reaching a record score of 41,001 units, earning its first three digit growth rate since July 2014...

This time PHEVs were back in black, growing 28%, its first growth month since last September, when the new WLTP emission rules started, so it all seems aligned for a strong last quarter of the year.

With all-electrics going into warp speed, they were responsible for 69% of all plugin sales last month (67% YTD), the BEV share grew to a record 3.2%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 4.6%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

If we add unplugged hybrids to the tally, we get a 10% share in the overall market, the first time electrified vehicles reach two digits in Europe, while Diesel continues its never ending slide, now at 29% (33% last year), so we could see new registrations of this fuel going extinct in Europe by 2026...

The big news in September was the Tesla Model 3 scoring a new all time record (17,490 units), beating its own March record (15,768 units), but this could not be the end of it, as December could see yet another record score from the Tesla midsizer.

Interestingly, this is the first 100% BEV Top 5 in years. Will it become the norm next year?

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Tesla Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had its best month so far in Europe, with 17,490 deliveries, with the Model 3 scoring 5(!) four-digit results (5,768 units in the Netherlands, 2,934 in the UK, 2,342 in Norway, 1,516 in Germany and 1,061 in France) in the same month. With the deployment of back-log units in the UK, and a big sales peak expected in the Netherlands, December could see another record month. By the look of it, we should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe by next year.

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#2 Renault Zoe– The 3,555 deliveries of September allowed it to continue growing (+28%), regarding last year, an amazing feat for a model that is supposed to be changing its skin, busy deploying the first units of the much improved “new” Zoe. As for individual market performances, the French hatchback continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,568 units), and in Germany (634 units), this time with the UK making an important contribution to the tally (235), of the successful Renault.

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#3 Nissan Leaf – With the 62 kWh version now being delivered in volume, the Japanese model hit 3,208 units last month, its best result since March, marking the return of the Leaf to the podium, and…That’s it for good news. Because despite the larger battery version help, registrations were still down 22% YoY. Will the Nissan BEV be able to leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, as the 62kWh version price premium (+/- 7,000 eur) is too steep to make it relevant in the long term, so in the long run, either Nissan cuts prices significantly, or the Leaf starts to become irrelevant, especially when a certain VW ID.3 lands…But back at September performances, the Japanese main markets were the UK (812 units), Norway (585), Germany (308) and France (299).

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#4 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 30% in September, to 3,110 units, its best result in 6 months, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (865 units), continues to be its larger market, with the following being the UK (658) and Norway (398), at a sizeable distance. A warning sign?

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#5 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,560 units last month, growing 196%(!) YoY, and hitting a new Year Best result, an awesome result for a model that was supposed to be in sunset-mode…Only, it seems VW is going all in into plugins, and is actively promoting what they have right now, even if it is an oldtimer. Add the name Golf, and what it implies, and that is generating enough appeal to keep demand up, even with newer and more competitive models on the market. Back at September performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were the UK(!), with 820 units, Norway (645), and Germany (419).

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New BMW 330e: a quick fix to try to stop the 3-Series sales bleeding

Looking at the 2019 ranking, if Tesla can already order the 2019 Best Seller party for the Model 3 and Renault can think about finding a place for the silver medal of the Zoe, the 3rd place could still be up for discussion, as the #4 BMW i3 and the #5 Nissan Leaf are shortening the distances to the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, but with 3 months to go about 2,000 units to recover, the two models will have a hard task ahead.

Below the front runners, the #7 Hyundai Kona EV scored its best result since January, with 1,988 registrations (is Hyundai getting more batteries?), while we have a new face in the Top 10, with the BMW 225xe A. Tourer jumping to #10, thanks to 1,566 units, its best result ever.

But it wasn’t the only BMW scoring a record result, as the new 330e landed with a bang, with 1,659 registrations, in what is already a new record for the nameplate, allowing it to be #8 in September. 

After seeing their customer base defect to the Model 3, the alarms must have sounded at the BMW HQ and the maker is betting everything on the success of its midsize PHEV, at least until the real Model 3 fighter, the i4, isn’t ready.

Another maker stepping up production is Volvo, with its XC60 PHEV scoring its best result since January (1,516 units), allowing it to climb 2 positions, to #12, while its larger sibling, the XC90 PHEV, also hit its best result in 8 months, with 781 units, allowing it to reach #22, and the S/V60 PHEV twins registered 807 units, with the midsize models looking to get nearer to the Top 20. 

On the second half of the table, the Smart Fortwo EV climbed to #16, thanks to 996 units, its best result in 20 months, and we have a new face in the Top 20, with the Tesla Model X returning to the table in #19, thanks to 1,131 deliveries, its best result in 2019, thus placing all Tesla lineup on the Top 20. 

Outside the Top 20, September brought a second coming of several plugin hybrids, besides the aforementioned good performances of the BMW and Volvo models, the Audi Q5 PHEV has landed with 421 units, while the revised VW Passat GTE scored 419 units, the nameplate best result since the beggining of the new WLTP rules.

Expect some of these models to become regular presences in the Top 20 next year, with both the BMW 330e and the VW Passat GTE running for Top 10 spots.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (22%, up 1%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (9%, down 1%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand and keep its podium seat from the makers behind it, namely Mitsubishi and Hyundai, both with 7% share.

Monday, October 28, 2019

Luxembourg September 2019

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Tesla is so popular in Luxembourg that even the Police runs around in Model S...

Tesla Model 3 is Big in Luxembourg

After a so-so 2018, PEV sales in Luxembourg are back in the fast track, with 1.162 plug-ins registered so far, with the PEV Share jumping to 2,7% (1.6% of which is BEV), while last month the share reached a record 5,1%.

A preview for the 2020 share?

BEVs continue to run faster (+192% YoY) than PHEVs (+16%), with their share in the PEV market now being 61%, a 10% increase regarding last year.

After winning the 2016 and 2017 Best Seller title with the Model S, Tesla has once again a nameplate in the lead, with the Model 3 shooting for #1 this year, with an amazing 26% share, more than tripling the sales of the #2 Renault Zoe. 

The remaining podium position went for the surprising Volvo XC60 PHEV, but with the Mini Countryman PHEV only 4 units behind, the Swedish SUV might have its Bronze medal, and Best Selling PHEV title, at stake.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the brilliant start of the new BMW 330e, that scored 11 registrations last month, jumping to 3rd in the September ranking, while at the same time it scored the nameplate best result in the last 30 months. Will we see it running for the medal spots next year?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is this year "King of the Hill", with 32% share, while Volvo is the runner-up, with 15%, followed by the #3 BMW (9%) and #4 Renault (#7).