Monday, September 30, 2019

Global Top 20 August 2019

Resultado de imagem para Hyundai Kona EV

Models: Baojun E-Series and Hyundai Kona EV climb in depressed market

For the first time since the beggining of the Third Age of the Electric Vehicle, registrations were down (-9% YoY) in August, to some 158.000 units, mostly due to the subsidy-related steep drop (-12%!) in China, and because the current plugin market dances to the tune of China...Stuff like this happens.

But while BEVs are hanging on (+8% YoY), the PHEV crisis worsens every passing month (-39% YoY, worst drop ever!), which means that BEVs are growing their share to unheard levels in a long time (76% in August).

As a result of these convoluted times, the PEV share reached 2% last month, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 2,3%, slightly lower than the record 2,4% it had in June. 

In the context of this receiding market, few models have reasons to celebrate, but there are a few glimpses of light, the leader Tesla Model 3 had its best off-peak month ever, with 21.336 deliveries, so we can expect/hope for a record-breaking month in September from the Tesla star player.

But the star of the month was the SAIC Baojun E-Series, shooting 8 spots, to #6, thanks to a record 8,698 units allowing it to win last month Silver Medal. Expect the tiny two seater to continue climbing positions, maybe reaching #4 by year end.

Another model on the rise is the Hyundai Kona EV, now up to #9, one hopes the Korean maker finds more batteries for its compact crossover, so that we can see it climbing more steps.

Outside the Top 20, the Tesla Model S (2.095 units last month, best off-peak performance this year) is just 725 units behind the #20 Changan Eado EV, so we should see the Tesla flagship return to the Top 20 next month.

Manufacturers: Tesla and the Chinese

August saw the leader Tesla reach its best off-peak month this year, so we could witness another all-time record for the Californian brand, while below it, BYD, BAIC and SAIC all scored five-digit performances, despite the doom and gloom in its domestic market, which means that it is the smaller brands that are suffering the most. 

Is there a process of natural selection going on?

Still, there was another Chinese OEM shining, with GAC joining the Top 20, in #20, thanks to 3.821 units, most of them coming from the hot GAC Aion S sedan. 

We have to go down to #11 to see the first relevant position change, with Toyota climbing 4 spots, now that the Chinese operations are in full swing and the Prius PHEV seems to be in recovery mode.


  1. Maarten VinkhuyzenSeptember 30, 2019

    After all the talk about the tanking sales of the Tesla Models S&X I still see 5,400 deliveries this month. Will be a great disappointment to the many prognostications on SeekingAlpha.

    I was thinking the other day, that we need a comparison between the vehicles without plug to the vehicles without tailpipe to have the best view on the progress of the transition.
    PHEV belong in both or neither group. They obfuscate what is really happening.

    It is not that I like to create more work for you, although I would not feel too guilty. I am just curious for that graph.

    1. If a phev can drive virtually gas free each week I bet the oil industry is concerned enough to regard it as a EV.

  2. Tesla sales in July and August are already at ~50k, 6k more than than the 44k in April and May. If September number is the same of June (but could be higher), Q3 will see 101k deliveries.

    1. Possibly more than that. I am thinking 105/106k units.

    2. Well, according to Electrek's (usually reliable) secret inside sources, they were still a few thousands short of 100,000 a day before the end of the quarter... While they might have been able to deliver a couple thousands on the last day across all markets, they'd still just barely make the goal I believe?

      (Let's not forget though that anything above ~95,000 will already be a new record, and on a good trajectory to meet guidance for the whole year...)

  3. this numbers and developments are impressive, Tesla is becoming synonymous with EV

    1. As surprising as it may seem, Tesla's global market share hasn't actually changed all that much over the years... (The Model 3 just recovered previously lost ground.)

      Though if we look at the market share outside China -- since that is pretty much a world of its own in terms of EV market share -- then I think Tesla might indeed have the highest share ever right now?...

      It's not clear though whether this will keep up. With Model Y, I guess they should be able to more or less hold market share in the near term -- but it's hard to say what happens after that. Depends a lot on whether will introduce even more affordable models in a not too distant future I guess, to hold off all the legacy makers beginning to make more competitive affordable EVs...

      On the other hand, autonomy could entirely change the rules: if Tesla really achieves it first with a significant lead, that alone should likely allow them to grow faster than the overall market for years to come, even without introducing additional models...

  4. Curious that, unlike all other Chinese makers, BAIC actually managed to sell more this month than their YTD monthly average... Though I guess that's more a reflection of their weakness at the beginning of the year than anything else?

    1. True. Although, one thing seems to be true: The Big Boys (BYD, BAIC, SAIC, Geely) seem to be holding on better than the rest. Call it Natural Selection, if you will.

      GAC is a special case, as the Aion lineup is a step above from everything they had so far.

  5. Regarding PHEVs, while the drop in China is certainly "real", I think in Europe it's still quite a bit distorted by the pre-WLTP sales rush happening last year? In September, I don't think PHEVs will look nearly as bad year-on-year...

    1. Could be, i am curious to see September results in Europe, not only because of Tesla, but i believe we will have a few surprise performances coming from Legacy OEMs, PHEVs included.

  6. Madan RajanOctober 01, 2019

    * Despite a drastic subsidy cut in China, PEVs managed to make 9000 more sales in August compared to July and its impressive.
    * In Aug, 3 PHEVs were in Top-20 in ranks: 5, 11 & 15 while in July, they were in 5, 7 & 8.
    That means, BEVs grabbed the precious 7th & 8th place from PHEVs.
    * Legacy automakers who want to sell only with subsidies should have cut their production/sales contributing to PHEVs decline, but on BEV front, Tesla gave a big boost irrespective of subsidies.
    * 2019 setting 3 million sales can be ruled out. Still its good because they made this much with very little subsidies. Hey the gassers should be seeing their 1st worldwide decrease in sales after nearly 10 years.
    * Model-3 outsold the vehicles in ranks 2,3,4 in Aug. What an impressive feat. Even YTD its just 1000 short of the combined total of next 3 vehicles.
    * Model-3 becomes the 2nd PEV in the World to cross the 300.000 mark in worldwide cumulative sales with their current sales at 316.662. It trails Nissan Leaf (434.315) by 117.653 units. Wow. Unless the new Nissan CEO gives a big boost to Leaf with an 80 KWh version, Leaf could lose its #1 title in less than a year.

    1. I think the 62 kWh battery of the current Leaf is fine for an "affordable" EV. Even the 40 kWh one is good enough for many people. The problem is that it doesn't stand out on other specs... The Kona for example gets significantly more range from similar-sized batteries, because of much better efficiency. In order to become competitive again, I think the biggest priority for Nissan is not further growing the batteries, but rather improving the platform, so they can deliver better specs and/or lower prices. But it doesn't look like that will happen before 2021 at the earliest...

      (Interesting observations otherwise.)

  7. Madan RajanOctober 01, 2019

    With 739.000 + vehicles on road, Tesla is probably ahead of Renault-Nissan combo. Adding Mitsu could put Tesla in #2, but Outlander is only a PHEV and if we count BEVs alone, then Tesla is the World #1 group.
    Model-S: 277.438
    Model-X: 142.482
    Model-3: 316.662
    Roadster: 2.450

  8. Well, even in top 20 there are no "new players" which seems to be significant from Europe. How far away are I-Pace and E-tron? Sales outside of Europe are negligible for both?

    1. I-Pace sold 1842 this year in the US, and e-tron 3540... Not a huge number -- but not exactly insignificant for these luxury models, especially the latter comparing to 9648 sales in Europe.

  9. Does anyone know a source to a Global EV release schedule for BEVs with battery capacity and voltage through 2022?

    Thanks in Advance !!

    1. Very little is known about specific EV models to be released in 2022. Some manufacturers boast a total count of models supposed to be released by then; others don't even do that...

      For 2021 and especially 2020, there are more announcements -- but a list would still be very incomplete, since some makers are very close-chested about this.

      And even where models are known, battery capacity (along with most other specs) usually only gets revealed shortly before production starts.

      As for voltage, I don't remember anyone except Porsche and some niche makers mentioning actual plans to go beyond the usual ~350 - 400 V...