Friday, May 31, 2019

Global Top 20 - April 2019

Resultado de imagem para hyundai Kona EV
How high will the Kona EV go?

Models: Hyundai Kona EV joins the Top 10

Registrations grew 29% YoY in April, to over 166.000 units, pulling the year to date count to over 662.000 (+52% YoY), and the April PEV share hitting 2,1%, in line with the 2019 result (2,1%). 

The market slowdown can be mostly attributed to PHEVs, as BEVs grew faster than the plugin average, with +43% YoY, allowing them to outsell plugin hybrids, with all-electrics having 71% of the plugin market last month. 

After March's record-breaking performance of the Tesla Model 3, this month things were noticeably quieter in the front, with the first position change happening only in #5, with the BYD e5 surpassing its BYD Tang PHEV sibling.

The Geely Emgrand EV climbed one spot, to #8, and with the #7 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV only 693 units ahead, the Chinese sedan could climb higher soon.

Two small Chinese EVs climbed positions last month, with the Chery eQ (4.129 units, new year best), climbing to #11, while the JAC iEV E-Series jumped two spots, to #18.

The Hyundai Kona EV continues to climb the ranking steps, now joining the Top 10, and could rise even further as the year (and battery supply) develops;

Finally, a mention to two models, with the BMW 530e/Le twins jumping two spots, to #13, thanks to 4.431 units, with the majority of them being registered in China, while the Roewe Ei5 hit a year best score of 4.003 registrations, now being the Best Selling SAIC in the ranking.

Manufacturers: Tesla and BYD play in a different league

April saw Tesla and BYD run at neck-breaking pace, with both almost doubling the deliveries of the #3 SAIC. 

For now, BYD is running ahead, with close to a 9.000 units lead, that should keep it in #1 in May, but with Tesla expected to have another deliveries peak in June, things can change then.  

Returning to the little league, in th
e race for the 3rd spot, SAIC won some lead over the competition, with BAIC sinking and BMW and Nissan climbing one spot each.

Looking elsewhere, Volkswagen had a record performance, with 8.235 registrations, most of them coming from China, so we could be witnessing the first moments of the "Empire Strikes Back" move, and that's still without the ID family (and new Passat GTE) reaching the market...It seems the news of the VW death were widely exagerated, weren't they?

JAC jumped two spots, to #13, and the #15 Chery were the climbers of the month, but the most surprising move was Toyota climbing two spots, to #17, mostly thanks to their Chinese operations (read PHEV Corolla), that outsold the Prius PHEV.

So, BMW, VW and Toyota were all benefiting from the Chinese market to climb positions in the ranking. Do you see a trend here?...

Thursday, May 30, 2019

Europe April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 vs Renault Zoe

Renault Zoe beats Tesla Model 3 for #1

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 37,000 registrations in April, growing 30% regarding the same period last year, a good performance considering that the overall market is still in the red (-1% in April).

In April, all-electrics jumped 70% YoY, to some 24,000 deliveries, having been responsible for 65% of all plugin sales last month, with the BEV share at 1.8%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share jumps to 2.8%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

Looking at other fuels, diesel sales continue its never-ending slide, dropping 12% YoY, with its share dropping from 36% to the current 33%.

The big news in April was the Renault Zoe beating the Tesla Model 3 in April, while the BMW i3 rounding up the podium, in 3rd.

Interestingly, excepting the waiting-for-the-62kWh-version Nissan Leaf, and the recent Tesla Model 3, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers had 50%-plus growth rates, which is good news, and proof that unlike the USA, the Model 3 isn’t drying up sales from other EVs.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Renault Zoe – The 4,079 deliveries of April signaled a 64% growth rate for the French hatchback, an impressive performance, considering the much improved “new” Zoe (50-60 kWh battery, driving aids, lower price…), and the upcoming Peugeot 208 EV, are just a few months away. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,472 units, up 53% YoY), and there also were positive numbers in Germany (939 units), and Italy (398), a market where the Renault model benefited from the new local incentives to beat its own sales record, after 6 years on the market. 

#2 Tesla Model 3 – After a deliveries peak in March, the posterchild for electromobility has dropped to more normal performances, with Tesla delivering 3,738 units of its sedan. Looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in Norway (720 units), Germany (514), Netherlands (467), Switzerland (492) and Sweden (446). May seems to follow April performances, but expect another Tesla tide next June.

#3 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales were up 53% in April, to 2,841 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from the age-old formula “bigger battery = bigger sales”, and not feeling the sting of the Model 3 arrival. Looking at individual countries, Germany (762 units), Norway (467) and the UK (290) were the main markets, while in April, Innogy completed the start of its Warsaw car-sharing fleet, helping Poland to register an additional 315 i3’s. Looking into 2019, expect the Star Wars-inspired EV to continue growing, so it should continue to be a regular face in this Top 5.

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Indifferent to the current doom and gloom of plugin hybrids, and being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, the Japanese SUV had 2,351 registrations in April (up 89%!), continues to be popular in the UK (500 units), but also in Germany (663 units), while in France, numbers got to 281 deliveries. This case study of a PHEV succeeding in a BEV-friendly environment, has to do with its unique mix of utility, space, decent electric range (including Chademo fast-charging) and affordability. On the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave, although, with no direct BEV competitor in the short term, the Mitsubishi model could still rack up lots of sales this year without major worries.


#5 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s 2018 Best Seller was only 5th in April, with 2,161 units, down 38% YoY, but fear not, as the new 62 kWh version should start deliveries soon, allowing the Japanese hatchback to resume the growth path and keep up with the pace of the Continent Best Sellers. In April, the main markets were Norway (386 deliveries), France (347), and The Netherlands (254). A special reference to the 199 registrations in Italy, thanks to the start of the new incentives program there.

 Resultado de imagem para Porsche Panamera PHEv


Looking at the 2019 ranking, this time the top positions remained the same, although the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is getting closer to the #3 Nissan Leaf, with only 310 units separating them. The 62 kWh version will be a much needed boost for the Japanese model, if it wants to keep its podium position. And to think the Nissan model was the Best Seller in 2018…

If there isn’t much to talk about in the first half of the table, on the second half of the table things are more interesting, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer was up one spot, to #13, while the Audi e-Tron continues to climb the ranking steps, now in #15.

The Smart Fortwo EV jumped 2 positions to #17, with the tiny EV watching its sales grow 58% YoY, a promising result, especially considering there are talks that the Smart EV will receive a 30 kWh battery later this year.

In #20, we see the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV joining the ranking, signaling the Swedish nameplate return to the Top 20, after 2 years of absence.  

Outside the Top 20, we should notice the good start of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 762 registrations last month, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV scored its best result (719 units) in the last 8 months, boding well for the upcoming Porsche Taycan.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (16%, down 2%) is sitting in the throne, while last year winner BMW (13%, up 1%) is a recovering runner-up.

Nissan and Renault, both with 9% share, are running for the 3rd spot, while Hyundai is not far behind, with 8%.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

South Korea April 2019

Resultado de imagem para niro ev vs kona ev

Kona EV #1, Niro EV #2

The South Korean market is on the fast track, growing 86% YoY, having reached 1.8% PEV share this year, in part thanks to the increased availability of the Kia Niro EV, that is now in 2nd place, breaking the 1-2 win that Hyundai had last year (#1 Kona EV; #2 Ioniq Electric). Will the Kia be able to break the Kona domination?

The Chevrolet Bolt remained in 3rd, suffering from the same problem as the other local best sellers: not enough batteries.

The previous driving force (Hyundai Ioniq Electric) in this market is losing relevance, and right now is only 4th. Will the revised Ioniq be able to recover a place in the podium?

A final mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell model, that with 607 units so far, seems to have found success, a rare event for a FCEV, and allowing the technology to have 0,11% share of the total market, a world best for Fuel Cells.

Jan.-Apr. 2019
Hyundai Kona EV
Kia Niro EV 

Chevrolet Bolt EV
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Renault Samsung Twizy


Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Portugal April 2019

Will the King Leaf be threatened by the Model 3?

Tesla Model 3 jumps to #2

PEV Sales slowed down their growth to just 9% YoY, with April registering 840 deliveries, but with the overall down (-2% YoY), last month the Plug-in Share ended at 4%, placing the 2019 share at 4,9%.

Last month the Best Selling model was the Mercedes E300e/de (!), a first for the full-size Mercedes, thanks to 95 deliveries, its best result ever in Portugal. 

How this came to be? Besides the popularity of the brand in this market, this model falls just below the incentives cap, so for companies, both this model and its rival BMW 530e (71 units in April, year best), are the best PHEV they can buy and still profit from the generous incentives.

Maybe it would be a good idea to lower the PHEV price cap to access incentives? I doubt these highway-eating monsters do a lot of electric drive..

Moving on, the Nissan Leaf is an isolated #1, with a safe distance over the surging Tesla Model 3, that came out of nowhere to the runner-up spot, displacing the popular Renault Zoe to #3.

Just below the podium, the BMW 530e is watching the Mercedes E300e/de getting closer, while the Hyundai Kona EV is #8, ahead of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that in Portugal is in a low #10, far from the success it is experiencing in other European markets.

Interestingly, high end plugins, that fall above the incentives price cap and do not receive significant incentives, are also experiencing surging sales, with the Jaguar i-Pace in #11, its cousin Range Rover Sport PHEV in #14, while both the Model S and X from Tesla find a seat in the Top 20, something rare this year in Europe, and even the Porsche Panamera PHEV sneaked in, at #19.  

It seems plugins are now trendy among the wealthiest in Portugal...

In the manufacturers ranking, there's a new leader, with Nissan now leading the way (23%), followed by the new Second Placed Tesla (16%), while the three times winner ('16, '17, '18) BMW, this year is relegated to the last place of the podium, with 12% share. Will the company-car-friendly BMW 330e change the German brand fortunes?

Outside the medal positions, Renault (9%) is the only close enough to bother the podium bearers.

Thursday, May 23, 2019

China April 2019

VW Passat and Geely Emgrand shine in a cooling month 

Resultado de imagem para VW Passat PHEV China
Chinese VW Passat GTE PHEV
After a first quarter with surging sales, April saw the Chinese plugin market cool down a little, to some 100,000 registrations, up only 34% YoY, but because the mainstream market is still in the red, the April PEV share reached an amazing 6.2%, pulling the PEV market share to 5.4%, frankly above the 2018 result (4.2%).

At this pace, this market could reach some 7% share by the end of this year, and cross the 10% share in 2020. And that’s when things start to get interesting…

With Chinese brands still tiptoeing on EV exports, with only some token units being sent to Southeast Asia, Europe and Latin America, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, while (some) foreign OEMs are starting to profit from the introduction of their existing/dedicated PEVs in China, but despite this investment, foreign brands total share is still stuck at 8% of the market.

Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Volkswagen, 2% to Tesla, while the remaining manufacturers share the rest. 

In April, the headlining news were the Geely Emgrand EV reaching #2, with a record 5,225 units, while the BYD Yuan returned to the highest place in the podium, with 6,428 deliveries.

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para byd yuan ev 500
#1 – BYD Yuan EV: The company Baby Crossovercontinues on the road for success, and with a new 58 kWh version now being delivered, the small Crossover continues to be delivered at a fast pace, with 6,428 units being delivered in April. With a thousands-long waiting list, demand is no problem, depending more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang is more profitable…), than anything else. With unrivalled specs (58 kWh battery, 410 kms/255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), this is shaping up to be this year strongest candidate for the Best Seller title.

#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: The bread and butterelectric sedan had its best month ever in April, with 5,225 units, a good sign for all the new models coming from the ambitious Geely Group stable, like the recently landed Geometry A sedan. The best-selling Chinese brand (and Volvo owner) is milking this model strongpoints, like its quality and technology, to compensate a middle-of-the-road design and price (CNY 218,300 / $31,834)

 Resultado de imagem para baic eu-series
#3 – BAIC EU-Series:After the record 12,983 units of March, allowing it to be that month Best Seller, BAIC’s electric sedan had the expected drop, with 4,738units being delivered last month, which was still enough to beat its BYD e5 nemesis. The revised design and improved specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) allows it to remain a popular choice, so the sedan seems to be Beijing Auto’s main bet for 2019.

 BYD e5
#4 – BYD e5: BYD’s utilitarian electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered 4,602 units in April, resulting in another consistent result for the oak treeof the BYD lineup, that thanks to competitive specs (61 kWh, 405 kms / 253 mi range NEDC, 218 hp), considering the price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600). With a new, attractive design (finally!), the nameplate is continuing its brilliant work as the piano-carrierof an All-Stars-rich BYD lineup. 
 Resultado de imagem para 2019 Chery eQ
#5 – Chery eQ: One of the pioneering EV brands, Chery had won China’s Best Selling EV title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), and the automaker regained relevance with the small eQ EV, having registered 4,129 units last month, a new year best, allowing it to collect another Top 5 position. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22.3kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle (And the subsidies requirements).

Resultado de imagem para xpeng g3
Xpeng G3: The next startup EV to reach the Top 20?

2019 ranking

The market is dynamic as ever, with plenty of changes and record results, the most important position change was the BYD e5 switching places with its Tang PHEV sibling, with the sedan now in the 3rdspot, making it a 100% BEV podium.

Both the #6 Chery eQ and the #7 Roewe Ei5 EV (4,003 deliveries, best result in 10 months), climbed one position in the ranking, due to a slow selling month of the Baojun E100, while the JAC iEV E-Series was up one spot, to #10, thanks to a year best 3,002 deliveries.

But the climber of the month was the VW Passat GTE, that jumped 6 positions, to #11, thanks to a record 3,767 units.

The other foreigner in the ranking, the Tesla Model 3, was also up, to #15, and should climb a few positions more in the coming months, maybe up until #12. It seems the race for best selling foreigner nameplate will be interesting to follow…

The Nio ES8 is back at the Top 20, in #19, keeping the best-selling full-size nameplate lead, although the Chinese SUV could have some competition soon, as the BMW 530Le scored 2,615 deliveries last month, being already #23, only 316 units behind the Nio. Interestingly, we have 2 models coming from Chinese startups in the last places of the ranking, and with XPeng accelerating the output of its G3 EV (2,200 units last month), we could have 3 Chinese startup models in the ranking soon.

Another entry in the ranking is the Roewe Ei6 PHEV, with the SAIC model returning here, at #16, thanks to 2,819 units, a new year best.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (23%, down 1%) is leading, thanks to the success of the Yuan and e5, while below it, SAIC (9%, up 1%) is ahead on the 2ndspot race, closely followed of BAIC (8%), and Geely (7%, up 1%). 

1BYD Yuan EV6428308748
2BAIC EU-Series4738240817
3BYD e54602191295
4BYD Tang PHEV3833187205
5Geely Emgrand EV5225159024
6Chery eQ4129134994
7SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV4003125903
8SAIC Baojun E1001488117723
9Great Wall Ora R1 EV3505109933
10JAC iEV E-Series300296153
11VW Passat GTE376788462
12JMC E20051077942
13BYD Qin PHEV116476842
14Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV110976172
15Tesla Model 3 e)300067382
16SAIC Roewe Ei6 PHEV281964092
17Changan Eado EV64760542
18Geely Emgrand GSE EV17755372
19Nio ES8150853211
20Weltmeister EX5 EV137753031