2020 Sales by OEM

 

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla ended the year ahead, with 16% share, 1% less than a year ago, which nevertheless is still a small feat all by itself, considering the intensive diversification process that the EV niche is now having, could have eroded more significantly its market share.

Tesla's current domination is however being threatened by the Volkswagen Group, that jumped from 6th in 2019 to the current 2nd spot, with its share jumping from 6% in 2019, to the current 13%. 

More importantly, the German conglomerate reduced its distance to the leader from 227.000 units in 2019 (368k vs 141k), to the current 78.000...Inclusively, the VW Group outsold Tesla in the last quarter of the year, by registering some 191.000 units, while the Californian maker had some 183.000 deliveries.

Will this mean that VW will beat Tesla in 2021? I think it will be closer than this year, but i believe Tesla will still have the upper hand, but for 2022...All bets are on.

In 3rd place we now have Shanghai Auto, that shooted from #7 in 2019, to the Bronze medal, having seen its share jump from 6% last year to the current 9%.

But unlike Volkswagen, that had been stable at the runner-up spot since the beggining of the year, by the end of Q3 2020, the Chinese Group was still outside the Top 5, but thanks to an amazing Q4, where it had an incredible 162.000 units, it jumped to the last place of the podium, this result was much due to the thundering success of the Wuling Mini EV, that was responsible for 44% of all of SAIC's registrations. If things go on like this for the Shanghai maker in 2021, then it could become a sort of dark horse and get in the way of the much announced Tesla vs Volkswagen duel. 

Regardless of what will happen in 2021, the big gainers of 2020 were the Volkswagen Group and SAIC, that counted together, gained 10% share this year.

Both the #4 Renault-Nissan Alliance and the #5 BMW Group lost 1% share regarding last year, but while the German OEM repeated the 5th spot of 2019, the Alliance lost one spot regarding the previous year, unable to resist the rise of SAIC.

Regarding the Q3 2020 ranking, we witness the disappearance of the Hyundai-Kia Group, that dropped from #4 then, to #6, despite record sales.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla repeated the 2019 title, with 23% share, the same score it had in the previous year, a small feat considering the current diversification process.

The Silver medal changed hands a few times this year, first we had the Renault Nissan Alliance in the runner-up spot, but on Q3 the VW Group took Silver, only to lose the 2nd spot on the last quarter of the year to SAIC, that thanks to the success of its Wuling Mini EV, it came out of the Top 5 into #3 in Q3, having surpassed the German conglomerate in the last quarter.

Still, it was a positive year for the Volkswagen Group, as it jumped from 6th in 2019, with just 5% share, to the last place of the podium, with 11% share.

Same story for SAIC, that jumped from #5 in 2019, with 6% share, to the runner-up spot, with 11% share, confirming these two Automotive Groups (SAIC and VW Group) as the winners of the year, as these two counted together earned 11% share in 2020, and the 22% of both come close to the 23% of the leader Tesla.

The Renault-Nissan Alliance was #4, with 8% share, which, funny enough, are exactly the same scores that the Alliance had in 2019.

The same can't be said regarding BYD, that was down from #3 and 9% share in 2019, to the current 5th spot and just 6%, although the Chinese Group has been recovering lately, climbing to #5 in the last quarter of the year.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while BYD replaces it.

Q1-Q3 2020 Sales by OEM

 

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 18% share, down 1% regarding the previous June report, followed by the Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, to 5%, so the German conglomerate is midway between the #1 Tesla and the #3 Renault-Nissan. 

And to think that 2019 ended with the Volkswagen Group in 6th, with 6% share, 2 points behind the Renault-Nissan Alliance and a whole 11 points below the leader Tesla (17%)...At this pace, the Germans could beat Tesla by Q2 2021. Bets, anyone?

Below the podium, Hyundai-Kia rose to 4th, at the expense of the BMW Group, with both keeping the 7% share they had in H1. 

SAIC is now #6, with 110.000 units, benefiting from the success of the SGMW City EVs, and could displace BMW from the Top 5 by the end of the year.

With the plugin market this year growing at a 11% rate, while Tesla (+24%), Hyundai-Kia (+29%) and BMW (+17%) are growing at a slightly higher pace than average, but the Volkswagen Group is growing at warp speed (+168%), and it has been the OEM that has grown more in volume, in the past three months, beating even Tesla in that aspect. 

On the other hand, the Renault-Nissan Alliance has seen its sales drop, by 1%, harmed by the slowing sales that Nissan and Mitsubishi have been experiencing. Maybe Renault could be better off seeking new dance partners (Ahem, Mercedes, Ahem)?

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, the leader Tesla (26%) lost 2% share regarding H1, but it is still 3% above the 2019 result, while the Renault Nissan Alliance continues losing share, due to Nissan's slowing sales, dropping by 1% regarding the last quarter, to 9%, and the Alliance was surpassed by the Volkswagen Group, that has kept its 10% score, which is double its final 2019 score (5%).

SAIC is also on the rise, jumping to #4, thanks to the Wuling and Baojun EVs, while increasing its share to 8%, placing the Chinese OEM 2 points ahead of last year 6% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, to the profit of the BEV-friendly SAIC.

Milestone of the Month: The Million unit OEMs

 

There are only 2 OEMs that have surpassed that milestone, both happening this year:

Tesla got there around last April;

The Renault-Nissan Alliance reached the 1 million mark a month later, in May.

And who will be next?

Well, BYD and the VW Group are the main candidates, but both shouldn't be able to get there this year, but expect at least one of them to get there by Q1 2021.

 

H1 2020 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share, followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that lost 2% share regarding the first quarter of this year, but it is still above the 8% of last year. 

Both the #4 BMW Group and the #5 Hyundai-Kia kept their positions and both lost 1% share regarding three months ago, now having 7% share, but the balance is still positive for the Korean OEM, as they ended 2019 with 6% share.

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in the second half of the year.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla lost 1% share regarding Q1, but it is still 5% above the 2019 result, while the #2 Renault Nissan Alliance lost a significant amount of share in this second quarter, dropping from 13% in Q1, to the current 10%, and although is it still better than the 2019 final score (8% share), it has seen the Volkswagen Group is getting really close, now less than 1.000 units behind, although the German OEM has also lost 1% share regarding Q1, the current 10% share is double what VW Group had in 2019.

Expect the German OEM to climb to the Second Spot soon, possibly by end of Q3.

BYD is also on the rise, climbing one position to #4, while increasing its QoQ share by 1%, to 7%, but despite this recovery, the Chinese OEM is still behind last year result of 9% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect SAIC to rebound soon, as the Shanghai maker has recently increased its sales (and share).

2020 Q1 Sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share (Up 2% regarding 2019), followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%, up 7%), that jumped from 6th to 2nd, not a bad start for their Year Zero Plan to Rule the EV World, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that kept its 3rd spot, while increasing its share by 3%, from 8% last year, to the current 11%. 

The #4 BMW Group also increased share, by 1%, to 8% share, climbing one position regarding 2019, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia did even better, jumping three positions, from #8 to #5, all while increasing its share by 2%, to 8%

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), now there's none, this is due the early effects of the Corona pandemic in China, expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in Q2, as this market should be the only unaffected by the pandemic, with Tesla also beneffiting from it, now that they have a strong presence there.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, increasing its market share by 6% and more than doubling the result of #2 Renault Nissan Alliance, which has also saw its share inflate by 5%, allowing it to jump from #4 to the runner-up spot, but the Volkswagen Group is getting closer, having jumped from 6th to 3rd, and earning 6% share, to 11%, equaling Tesla in market share growth.

Hyundai-Kia is also on the rise, jumping from #7 to #4, increasing its share by 3%, running ahead of last year's Bronze Medalist BYD, that is now #5, with 6% share, down 3%.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect both to rebound soon, as both should increase their sales (and shares) significatly in the second quarter, while most OEMs outside China will have a hard time, due to the current pandemic.

2019 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2019 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 17% share (Up 5% regarding 2019), thanks to a 122,000 units sales growth regarding 2018, followed by BYD (10%, down 1%), that has seen its sales impacted by the subsidies change in China, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that dropped 1% YoY, to 9% share, that suffered from the slowing sales of the Nissan Leaf, with the 2018 podium repeating in 2019. 

The #4 BAIC also dropped 1%, to 7% share (down 2%) repeating last year place, with the #5 BMW Group also keeping the same position as in 2018, but in the case of the German Group, its slight growth rate allowed it to keep the same market share as in the previous year.

The Climber in the ranking was the Volkswagen Group, that in the Year -1 of its Plan to Rule the EV World, it jumped 3 spots, from #9 to #6, surpassing SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and the Geely Group, thanks to a 59,000 units growth regarding 2018, an amazing 70% growth rate, beating even that of Tesla (+50% YoY).

Will the German Group be able to outpace Tesla again in 2020? And in 2021?

Still, despite being surpassed by Volkswagen Group, SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and Geely all grew, with the Korean Group in particular growing at a significant 38% rate. 

Finally, with the demise of most of the smaller Chinese EV makers, Toyota(!) managed to climb to #10, growing 20% YoY, thanks to the start of its Chinese Operations. 

BEV

Looking just at the 1.6 million BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, doubling the result of #2 BAIC, which was also the runner-up in 2018, while the slowing sales of the Renault-Nissan Alliance dropped it to #4, with BYD becoming the 2019 Bronze medalist, thanks to a 46% growth rate, so although in the BEV+PHEV table BYD has stagnated, in reality, BYD has replaced a significant part of their plugin hybrid sales for pure electric ones.

SAIC benefits from the unexpected success of the Baojun E-Series to climb into #5, the VW Group came out of obscurity straight into #7, while Hyundai-Kia, growing 46% YoY, ended in #6.

Finally, the fast growing GAC ended at #9, and could climb even more in 2020.

H1 2019 sales by OEM (Updated)

PHEV + BEV

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (141.459)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (100.736)
4. Geely Group (69.795)
5. BAIC (68.933)

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 14% share (Up 5% regarding June 2018), followed by BYD (13%, up 4%) and the Renault-Nissan Alliance,  that dropped from 1st to 3rd in 12 months, having seen share drop 2% YoY, to 9% share, while the #4 Geely Group is #4, with 6% (up 2% YoY), and BAIC dropped to 5th, with 6% share (down 2%).

In short, Tesla, BYD and Geely are winning share, while the rest is losing ground.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 56% of all deliveries (up 10% YoY), while the USA profits from Tesla to rise to the runner-up spot (17%, up 3%), while Germany (11%, down 7%) and Japan (9%, down 2%) are sinking, with Korea (6%) now looking to become the third largest plugin vehicle power.

BEV only sales 

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (96.475)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (73.848)
4. BAIC (68.933)
5. Hyundai-Kia (42.605)

Looking just to BEVs, Tesla expands its lead to BYD and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, while the Geely Group is replaced by the Hyundai-Kia Group and BAIC rises to #4.

Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated)

Looking at the 2018 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

Regarding the previous post, both Tesla (12%) and BYD (11%) maintained their lead, but last year winner, the #3 Renault-Nissan Alliance (9%, -1%), lost a bit more ground, with the rising BAIC (8%, +1%) cutting distances to the podium, having surpassed BMW in November, to reach #4. 

Regarding the remaining OEMs, there is one significant change, with Hyundai-Kia surpassing the almighty VW Group and reaching #8, which says a lot about what is happening right now...

Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Is this a sign of the New World Order in the automotive industry?

Looking at last year standings, and comparing it with 2018, there are noticeable changes, Tesla jumped from #5 to the leadership, Renault-Nissan dropped from #1 to 3rd, Geely dropped two positions, to #6, SAIC was up two spots to #6, while the Volkswagen was down two spots, to #9.

Highlighting the changing times, we have two new Automotive Groups in the Top 10, with Hyundai-Kia jumping to #8, and Chery reaching #10, kicking out General Motors, now #11, and Toyota (down to #15!) out of the Top 10. 

The Toyota case is particularly worrying, not only because it is one of the largest Automotive OEMs, and in this ranking is only #15, but also because in a fast growing market, it was one of the few (the only?) OEMs to lose sales (-10%) regarding 2017...


BEVs Only

Looking only at BEVs, the ranking would be like this:

1. Tesla (245.240);

2. BAIC (165.369);

3. Renault-Nissan (150.374);

4.  BYD (105.420);

5. Chery (64.897).

The disruption is even more visible here, with only Renault-Nissan on the Top 5, and Tesla winning even more easily.

In fact, if we have  increased this to a Top 10, we would only have another Legacy OEM here, Hyundai-Kia, #7, with 58.990 units.

So, BMW and the VW Group are still too PHEV-based to be considered one of the leading Legacy OEMs. Maybe things will look different in 2020? 

A few words abouth the current Ghosn situation

Back in 2010-11, when the current EV Revolution was in its infancy, and Tesla was still a tiny baby croc, it was this man, Carlos Ghosn, head of the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that was the flag bearer of the EV club, being the only Legacy OEM top executive believing that the new technology would soon change the automotive landscape forever.

The Nissan Leaf was the face of this belief, and almost 400.000 units later, it is proving he was right.

If for nothing else, the fact that he held the Electric Fort in those early years, will place him in the future History of the Electric Car.

I wish that the prosecuters make a swift investigation and all this comotion ends, because with or without conviction, the important is that Renault and, above all, Nissan, don't get distracted with this scandal and proceed with their electrification plans.

Let's hope the postponement of the 60 kWh Leaf is just temporary and not a sign that with Ghosn out, Nissan could be dragged down to Fuel Cells, like the other Japanese OEMs.

I mean, with the Leaf now being one of the few profitable electric cars in the market, the hardest work is already done, now it should be the time to expand and profit from the Alliance's First Mover Advantage.