OEMs growth - July 2020

 

If the plugin market as a whole grew 76% in July, in that period, some OEMs grew above average, so this post mentions who was in the fast lane, last month.

Average in July: +76% growth YoY.

Fastest growers:

#1 - PSA (+2.477% YoY);

#2 - Ford Group (628%);

#3 - Volvo Group (360%);

#4 - Daimler (351%);

#5 - VW Group (268%).

For further information, Hyundai-Kia was up 91% YoY and Tesla 49%.

Of course, this simplistic approach is skewed to help smaller OEMs, because if you sold 2 units instead of 1, it means a 100% growth, hence the success of the Top 3 OEMs.

So the best approach is to look at total volume, and here, the OEMs that grew more regarding July 2019, volume wise, are:

#1 - VW Group (24.909);

#2 - Daimler (11.534);

#3 - Tesla (10.816).

If the first spot of the Volkswagen Group can surprise some, if you think about the sales uptick that the German Conglomerate had in the past year, it should come as no surprise, as the sheer scale of the Group means that a couple percent of electrification translates into several thousand units.

The real surprise, including for me, is the second place of the Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart), that just managed to overcome Tesla, mostly thanks to a surge in sales of the Smart brand, as well as the ramp up of the Mercedes PHEVs and even the EQC has started to be delivered in decent volumes.

Finally, Tesla. And a disclaimer. Because this is the first month of the quarter, one shouldn't read too much into these numbers, as the previous normal quarters (Q4 2019; Q1 2020) saw Tesla increasing the seasonality of sales, with lower than average numbers in the first two months, and then an end of quarter month with higher than usual deliveries, so i wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again this quarter.

H1 2020 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share, followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that lost 2% share regarding the first quarter of this year, but it is still above the 8% of last year. 

Both the #4 BMW Group and the #5 Hyundai-Kia kept their positions and both lost 1% share regarding three months ago, now having 7% share, but the balance is still positive for the Korean OEM, as they ended 2019 with 6% share.

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in the second half of the year.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla lost 1% share regarding Q1, but it is still 5% above the 2019 result, while the #2 Renault Nissan Alliance lost a significant amount of share in this second quarter, dropping from 13% in Q1, to the current 10%, and although is it still better than the 2019 final score (8% share), it has seen the Volkswagen Group is getting really close, now less than 1.000 units behind, although the German OEM has also lost 1% share regarding Q1, the current 10% share is double what VW Group had in 2019.

Expect the German OEM to climb to the Second Spot soon, possibly by end of Q3.

BYD is also on the rise, climbing one position to #4, while increasing its QoQ share by 1%, to 7%, but despite this recovery, the Chinese OEM is still behind last year result of 9% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect SAIC to rebound soon, as the Shanghai maker has recently increased its sales (and share).

2020 Q1 Sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share (Up 2% regarding 2019), followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%, up 7%), that jumped from 6th to 2nd, not a bad start for their Year Zero Plan to Rule the EV World, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that kept its 3rd spot, while increasing its share by 3%, from 8% last year, to the current 11%. 

The #4 BMW Group also increased share, by 1%, to 8% share, climbing one position regarding 2019, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia did even better, jumping three positions, from #8 to #5, all while increasing its share by 2%, to 8%

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), now there's none, this is due the early effects of the Corona pandemic in China, expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in Q2, as this market should be the only unaffected by the pandemic, with Tesla also beneffiting from it, now that they have a strong presence there.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, increasing its market share by 6% and more than doubling the result of #2 Renault Nissan Alliance, which has also saw its share inflate by 5%, allowing it to jump from #4 to the runner-up spot, but the Volkswagen Group is getting closer, having jumped from 6th to 3rd, and earning 6% share, to 11%, equaling Tesla in market share growth.

Hyundai-Kia is also on the rise, jumping from #7 to #4, increasing its share by 3%, running ahead of last year's Bronze Medalist BYD, that is now #5, with 6% share, down 3%.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect both to rebound soon, as both should increase their sales (and shares) significatly in the second quarter, while most OEMs outside China will have a hard time, due to the current pandemic.

2019 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2019 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 17% share (Up 5% regarding 2019), thanks to a 122,000 units sales growth regarding 2018, followed by BYD (10%, down 1%), that has seen its sales impacted by the subsidies change in China, and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that dropped 1% YoY, to 9% share, that suffered from the slowing sales of the Nissan Leaf, with the 2018 podium repeating in 2019. 

The #4 BAIC also dropped 1%, to 7% share (down 2%) repeating last year place, with the #5 BMW Group also keeping the same position as in 2018, but in the case of the German Group, its slight growth rate allowed it to keep the same market share as in the previous year.

The Climber in the ranking was the Volkswagen Group, that in the Year -1 of its Plan to Rule the EV World, it jumped 3 spots, from #9 to #6, surpassing SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and the Geely Group, thanks to a 59,000 units growth regarding 2018, an amazing 70% growth rate, beating even that of Tesla (+50% YoY).

Will the German Group be able to outpace Tesla again in 2020? And in 2021?

Still, despite being surpassed by Volkswagen Group, SAIC, Hyundai-Kia and Geely all grew, with the Korean Group in particular growing at a significant 38% rate. 

Finally, with the demise of most of the smaller Chinese EV makers, Toyota(!) managed to climb to #10, growing 20% YoY, thanks to the start of its Chinese Operations. 

BEV

Looking just at the 1.6 million BEVs, Tesla expanded its lead, doubling the result of #2 BAIC, which was also the runner-up in 2018, while the slowing sales of the Renault-Nissan Alliance dropped it to #4, with BYD becoming the 2019 Bronze medalist, thanks to a 46% growth rate, so although in the BEV+PHEV table BYD has stagnated, in reality, BYD has replaced a significant part of their plugin hybrid sales for pure electric ones.

SAIC benefits from the unexpected success of the Baojun E-Series to climb into #5, the VW Group came out of obscurity straight into #7, while Hyundai-Kia, growing 46% YoY, ended in #6.

Finally, the fast growing GAC ended at #9, and could climb even more in 2020.

H1 2019 sales by OEM (Updated)

PHEV + BEV

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (141.459)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (100.736)
4. Geely Group (69.795)
5. BAIC (68.933)

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 14% share (Up 5% regarding June 2018), followed by BYD (13%, up 4%) and the Renault-Nissan Alliance,  that dropped from 1st to 3rd in 12 months, having seen share drop 2% YoY, to 9% share, while the #4 Geely Group is #4, with 6% (up 2% YoY), and BAIC dropped to 5th, with 6% share (down 2%).

In short, Tesla, BYD and Geely are winning share, while the rest is losing ground.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 56% of all deliveries (up 10% YoY), while the USA profits from Tesla to rise to the runner-up spot (17%, up 3%), while Germany (11%, down 7%) and Japan (9%, down 2%) are sinking, with Korea (6%) now looking to become the third largest plugin vehicle power.

BEV only sales 

1. Tesla (160.009)
2. BYD (96.475)
3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (73.848)
4. BAIC (68.933)
5. Hyundai-Kia (42.605)

Looking just to BEVs, Tesla expands its lead to BYD and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, while the Geely Group is replaced by the Hyundai-Kia Group and BAIC rises to #4.

Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

2018 Global Sales by OEM (Updated)

Looking at the 2018 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

Regarding the previous post, both Tesla (12%) and BYD (11%) maintained their lead, but last year winner, the #3 Renault-Nissan Alliance (9%, -1%), lost a bit more ground, with the rising BAIC (8%, +1%) cutting distances to the podium, having surpassed BMW in November, to reach #4. 

Regarding the remaining OEMs, there is one significant change, with Hyundai-Kia surpassing the almighty VW Group and reaching #8, which says a lot about what is happening right now...

Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Is this a sign of the New World Order in the automotive industry?

Looking at last year standings, and comparing it with 2018, there are noticeable changes, Tesla jumped from #5 to the leadership, Renault-Nissan dropped from #1 to 3rd, Geely dropped two positions, to #6, SAIC was up two spots to #6, while the Volkswagen was down two spots, to #9.

Highlighting the changing times, we have two new Automotive Groups in the Top 10, with Hyundai-Kia jumping to #8, and Chery reaching #10, kicking out General Motors, now #11, and Toyota (down to #15!) out of the Top 10. 

The Toyota case is particularly worrying, not only because it is one of the largest Automotive OEMs, and in this ranking is only #15, but also because in a fast growing market, it was one of the few (the only?) OEMs to lose sales (-10%) regarding 2017...


BEVs Only

Looking only at BEVs, the ranking would be like this:

1. Tesla (245.240);

2. BAIC (165.369);

3. Renault-Nissan (150.374);

4.  BYD (105.420);

5. Chery (64.897).

The disruption is even more visible here, with only Renault-Nissan on the Top 5, and Tesla winning even more easily.

In fact, if we have  increased this to a Top 10, we would only have another Legacy OEM here, Hyundai-Kia, #7, with 58.990 units.

So, BMW and the VW Group are still too PHEV-based to be considered one of the leading Legacy OEMs. Maybe things will look different in 2020? 

Auotomotive Groups - September 2017

SAIC joins the Top 10, mostly thanks to this model

Automotive Group	Units	% of sales
Renault-Nissan	89.245	12
Tesla	73.227	10
BYD Group	71.070	9
BMW Group Geely Gr. (w / Zhidou)	68.687 68.494	9 9
BAIC	58.716	7
Volkswagen Group	46.730	6
Toyota	39.422	5
General Motors	37.387	5
SAIC Hyundai-Kia	29.434 26.774	4 3

Looking at sales by automotive groups, the Renault-Nissan Alliance, now reinforced with Mitsubishi, is unsurprisingly in the Pole Position, but its share has dropped 2%, to 12% share, no doubt result of the Nissan Leaf generation change, while Tesla remained in Second Place, with a BYD on full charge climbing to Third, at the expense of the BMW Group, down to Fourth.

The 2017 Best Selling OEM seems to be in the hands of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi trifecta, which has  successfully defending its lead over Tesla and BYD, with both OEMs struggling with production constraints.

As for the remaining players, rising star SAIC climbed to Tenth, meaning there are four Chinese OEMs (BYD; BAIC, Geely and SAIC) in the Top 10,  and i would't be surprised if it climbed a couple of positions in the future, as their models are possibly the best value for money PEVs in China.

Looking into 2018, the Renault-Nissan Alliance will receive an important reinforcement, with the new Leaf, possibly adding some 100k-120k units to the current tally, possibly ending the year at 220-250k units.

Tesla has its Model 3 to deliver en masse, a while ago i had predicted some 300k Model 3 deliveries next year, but considering the current state of the Tesla Nation, i believe its best to cut that to 250.000 units, adding some 100k from the Model S & X, and we have Tesla delivering around 350.000 units next year, which would make it the Best Selling OEM of 2018, a first for the Californian.

BYD is set to deliver some 110.000 units this year, a giant setback over the expected 200k for this year. So for 2018, it is complicated to forecast a number, especially because of their production ramp up issues, but i would say that it will be in the 175.000 units ballpark, a number that could put its podium position threatened by a fast growing BAIC.

As for the remaining OEMs, BMW and Geely will try to follow the pace of the aforementioned two, ending at around 150k, while the rest of the competition will be happy to reach 100.000 deliveries in one year.

Which is the best City EV?

After the success of this post, i decided to compare the current crop of city BEVs in Portugal and see which would the best:


Range



BMW i3 - 4

Kia Soul EV - 3

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 2

Renault Zoe - 5 (300 kms real world range, 43 kW AC charging available)

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Space



BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV- 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 5 (Five usable seats, 338 liters in the trunk)

Smart Forfour ED - 2

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 6


Reliability / Running costs


BMW i3 - 3

Kia Soul EV - 5 (7 year warranty, reliable battery)

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 1

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart Forfour ED - 1

Volkswagen e-Up! - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3


Manoeuvrability / Dynamics

BMW i3 - 5 (Unbeatable Dynamics, near perfect manoeuvrability)

Kia Soul EV - 1

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 4

Renault Zoe - 2

Smart Forfour ED - 4

Volkswagen e-Up! - 4

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3



Price


BMW i3 - 1

Kia Soul EV - 4

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 7

Renault Zoe - 4

Smart ForFour ED - 8 (At circa 24.000 eur, it is 18.000 eur cheaper than the BMW i3...)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 6

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 2

Total

BMW i3 - 16 (Good range, stellar Dynamics, too bad about the price...)

Kia Soul EV - 17 (A balanced car, but there are more suited models for city driving) 

Mitsubishi I-Miev - 15 (Great price and manoeuvrability, but the world has moved on when it comes to the rest...)

Renault Zoe - 20 (Spacious city car with unbeatable range, which compensates some shortcomings in the manoeuvrability side)

Smart Forfour ED - 16 (Great price and fit for the city, but needs better range and increased charging speed)

Volkswagen e-Up! - 16 (Typical Volkswagen personality traits: Not bad at anything, not especially good in any item and slightly overpriced for what it is)

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 20 (Awesome range, unbeatable interior, but at an estimated 39k eur, it is playing in a different, higher class)