Tariffs and the Difference between Chinese BEVs & PHEVs

Comparing the best selling Chinese BEVs’ competitiveness to the local competition, and then doing the same for the best selling Chinese PHEVs, we notice the difference that increased tariffs make and the reason why I think China’s top OEMs will focus on the PHEV market in the near future.

World EV Sales - Full Year 2024 (OEMs)

In 2024, Tesla was the best selling BEV maker, with 17% share, followed by BYD (16%)...

...But if we add PHEVs to the tally, BYD jumps ahead, with a robust 25% share, while Tesla drops to Second place, with 10% share, less than half of BYD...

In both cases, Geely ended the year in 3rd, with around 8% share.

This means that in 2025, Geely might have a go at Tesla's runner-up spot in the BEV+PHEV ranking.

Best Selling Legacy OEM in both rankings was the VW Group, 5th in the BEV table, and 4th in the PHEV+BEV table.

My bets for the 2025 top 5 OEMs:

xEV

1. BYD
2. Geely
3. Tesla
4. SAIC
5. VW Group

BEV

1. BYD
2. Tesla
3. Geely
4. SAIC
5. VW Group

What are your bets?