Friday, December 28, 2018

Global Top 20 - November 2018

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Models: Nissan Leaf resists the BAIC EC-Series in (another) Record month

Registrations grew 73%  YoY in November, to over 237,000 units, continuing for the third time a streak of record months. 

This brilliant performance set the yearly tally straight into the 2 million PEVs mark, a stark departure from the 1.2 million of 2017. 

Because of this, the global PEV share grew once again, crossing into 2% share, with December probably placing the final 2018 share north of that value.  

In November the question at the top was knowing if the Silver Medal would change hands, with the BAIC EC-Series failing to overcome the #2 Nissan Leaf, but with only 400 units separating them, it seems December will finally see the Chinese nameplate reach the Second Place.

Another interesting race is happening at #6, with the Prius PHEV, Toyota's only plugin model, trying to resist the Tesla Model X, with less than 1.000 units separating them and the Californian going into warp speed in December, the Japanese is set to lose another spot until the end of the year, thus losing four positions, comparing with 2017. Do i hear an alarm call at Toyota HQ? Are they listening?

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the BYD e5 is now #9, that thanks to another record performance (5.574 deliveries), it climbed one position.

The Chery eQ and Renault Zoe climbed one position each, to #11 and #12, respectively, with the French hatchback hitting a Personal Best result of 5.370 deliveries, while the BMW 530e continues its seemingly never ending rise, now climbing to #14, thanks to a massive 5.164 units, the best result ever for a BMW plugin.

Interestingly the other BMW on the Top 20, the i3, also improved in the ranking, up one position to #16, scoring 3.468 units, a new record for the German hot hatch. 

But the Climber of the Month was the BYD Tang PHEV, that jumped two positions, to #17, thanks to a record 6.405 units, a new all-time best for a BYD model, at this pace, the Chinese SUV could even end the year at #15.

Finally, we have a new face in the Top 20, with the BYD Yuan EV reaching #20, thanks to a record 6.188 registrations, being not only the best candidate for Rookie Of The Year, but also the Fifth BYD in the 2018 Global Top 20...

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by yet another 1%, to 67% of the total market, mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 1411 2011! 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: BYD wins November, Tesla #1 YTD

November saw BYD win the monthly Manufacturers title, thanks to a record 29.000 units, being its first win since April. 

With Tesla ramping up to what can only be an historic December (over 40k?), the American maker has enough YTD margin from BYD, to keep comfortable in the leadership, even if BYD pulls out a 30k-plus performance. 

One thing is certain, right now BYD is the only maker able to follow Tesla's pace.

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, the #4 BMW broke its personal record, mostly thanks to the Chinese deliveries of the 530e, while the most important change is Nissan climbing to #5, thanks to a record 11.362 deliveries, that can attributed to the deliveries ramp up of the Nissan Sylphy EV in China.

Interestingly, #10 Volkswagen had its best score (6.240 units) since 2015, in great part due to the start of its Chinese operations. Are we seeing a pattern here?...

Chevrolet recovered one spot, climbing to #8, thanks to a record 7.881 units, while another Legacy OEM  also had a record month, with Renault registering 6.723 units.
Below the Top 10, Geely climbed to #12, while its Premium arm, the #18 Volvo, had a Year Best performance of 3.670 units. 

Finally, we have a new brand on the Top 20, with Dongfeng climbing to #20, thanks to a record 8.754 deliveries last month. And to think the manufacturer delivered 3.158 units in the whole year of 2017...

Grouping sales by brand origin, China has once again increased its leadership, to 49% (+1%), with the USA (16%) stable in Second, and the #3 Germany (13%, down 2%) is losing steam.


Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Europe November 2018

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The 4 Knights of BEV Stardom

Let the (BEV) Flood Begin!

After a couple of slow performances in previous months, in November the European passenger plug-in market is back at cruise speed (+31% YoY), by registering some 37,500 registrations, pulling the Year-to-date count to 345,000 deliveries (+34%), while the 2018 market share grew to 2.4%, thanks to a 3.2% performance in November.

But if on the surface everything seems to back to normal, separating the BEV/PHEV powertrains, there are seismic changes, on the BEV side, sales (or should I say, deliveries?) jumped 96% YoY, the highest growth rate since July ’14 (!), to a record 23,000 units (61% share of plugins), allowing them to (finally!) surpass PHEVs in the total year breakdown, something that happens for the first time since 2014…Historic month, indeed!

On the other hand, PHEVs continue feeling the sting of the new WLTP standard, with sales down (-14% in November) for the third time in a row, the worst downward trend since…well, ever. Will PHEVs in Europe recover sometime in the future, or are they going to be swallowed by the upcoming BEV flood?

One thing is certain, BEVs start 2019 with the upper hand…

But the PHEV debacle isn’t equal across all brands, as some (BMW, Mitsubishi, Volvo…) did their homework and continue to thrive under the new rules, leading to some brilliant performances, in particular the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.

In November the top spots didn’t had major surprises, with three (i3, e-Golf and Zoe) of the Top 5 Best Sellers last month hitting record performances, while the Outlander PHEV had its best month since 2015, and the leader Nissan Leaf hasn’t made a memorable score, simply because the Leaf output in the Sunderland factory is limited by the weight of the Qashqai production there. Maybe Nissan should think about sending units from the US to Europe?

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Renault Zoe – The record 5,154 deliveries meant a 175% jump YoY for the French hatchback, this surprising score is the result of LG providing more batteries to the French carmaker, thanks to the ramp up of its European factory. Without the batteries bottleneck, we should finally see the real demand for the Zoe. Regarding individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 1,895 units (+144% YoY), with other significant numbers coming from Germany (1,047 units, new record), Norway (464, new record), and also Portugal (279 units…and guess what, also new record), so the Zoe is one of the hottest EVs right now.  

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#2 Nissan Leaf – Despite being surpassed in November by its French cousin Renault Zoe, the Nissan Leaf, Europe’s Best Selling EV, continues to expand its sales, by registering 4,640 units, the third month in a row that the Japanese hatchback hits a 4,000-plus performance, and with the orders list still a couple of months away from be satisfied, expect the Leaf to end the year as the Best Selling EV in Europe, recovering a title that had won for the last time in 2013... But back at last month performance, with the main market being by far Norway (1,209 deliveries), the Japanese hatchback hit three-digit performances in 12(!) other countries, besides the usual suspects (France, Netherlands, Germany, UK…) the BEV also shined in countries like Sweden (388 units, new record), Belgium (235, new record), or Spain (182 units, and…yes, new record).

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#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Europe’s favorite family/towing/winter plugin continues to profit from the specs update, with the Japanese SUV securing yet another Best-Selling PHEV of the Month award and a podium presence in October, thanks to 3,160 registrations, up 77%, being the nameplate highest score since 2015. The plug-in SUV will continue to offer its unique mix of “affordable” space, AWD and utility, with the added bonus of a larger electric range (28 mi/45 kms real world range) and more power (+15 hp) at hand, keeping it popular in markets like the UK, Norway or Sweden. Going forward, with the end of the PHEV incentives in the UK, a market that represents one third of sales, it will be interesting to see where Mitsubishi will find other markets to compensate the UK losses. With a record 386 units registered last month in Germany, I think Mitsu might have found the answer…

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#4 VW e-Golf – It seems the German hatchback is cured from its not-enough-batteries disease, just in time to save VW from their PHEV extinction, allowing it a Top 5 presence, thanks to 3,044 deliveries, the nameplate’s second record in a row. And to think the model is less than a year away from being replaced…Looking at individual countries, Norway (886 units) and Germany (858 units, new record) were major contributors, with The Netherlands (358) and Austria (318) also helping significantly. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to continue strong in the next few months (I mean, with PHEVs offline, they don’t have anything else to make, right?), until VW finally decides to place it in Sunset-mode, in the second half of 2019, as it prepares the ID/Neo launch.

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#5 BMW i3 – In a transitional month, with the start of the new 42 kWh deliveries, the German Hot Hatch sales hit a record month, with 2,443 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory growing in output, the BMW EV is set to continue breaking records throughout 2019. Looking at last month individual countries, Norway was the largest market for the BMW hot hatch, with 714 registrations (Best month since 2016), with Germany (432 units, 360 of them BEV) following it.

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BEVs on the rise

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the top positions remained stable, in fact we have to go to #7 to see position changes, with the Volvo XC60 PHEV (1,498 units) and BMW 530e (1,464) climbing to #7 and #8, respectively.

Elsewhere, another model from the BMW Group continues to jump positions, with the Mini Countryman PHEV reaching #12, while three BEVs are shining in the second half of the table, with the Hyundai Ioniq Electric beating for the second time in a row its personal best, with 1,115 deliveries, while the Smart Fortwo ED climbed to #16 and even the runout-mode Kia Soul EV was up to #19.

Outside the Top 20, the Jaguar Land Rover team had a great month, with the Jaguar i-Pace scoring another record month (1,260 units), while the Range Rover/Range Rover Sport PHEVs together registered some 1,200 units.

Intriguingly, the Hyundai Kona EV still hasn’t made the expect deliveries jump, with only 620 units being delivered in November, which is strange, given the recent deliveries uptake of the Ionic Electric.  

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (15%, down 1%) is in the lead, while the runner-up Volkswagen (12%, down 1%), is watching the #3 Nissan (12%) getting closer, with Renault (10%, up 1%) in Fourth, ahead of Tesla and Volvo, both with 7%.

Friday, December 21, 2018

China November 2018

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BYD Tang: Getting easier on the eye every passing day…

6,3% PEV Share!

After two record-breaking months (September with 105k and October, 120k), plugins in November just kept on pushing forward, by registering over 140,000 units, up 59% YoY, with the previous record being beaten by a significant margin (18%).

If we extrapolate December, sales could peak at some 155,000 units, with the 2018 sales surpassing the 1 million units mark. In one year. And to think that 2017 was the first year that plugins reached 1 million sales, GLOBALLY. Woah.

With all this continued growth, and the recent decline of the mainstream market (-14% in November), the PEV share hit another all-time best, ending the month with 6.3%, while the 2018 share rose to 3.8% share, a new record and well above the 2.1% of 2017, with sales expected to continue growing until December, the 2018 PEV share could end North of 4%, with the December possibly reaching surpassing 7%.

If this growth rate continues throughout 2019, in a year from now we should be talking about shares above 10%, and that’s when things start to get interesting…

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, and most foreign OEMs only now are starting to tackle the current seismic changes, dragged into electrification by the upcoming PEV quotas, resulting in the foreign brands total share still being stuck at 6%.

Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to BMW, the Best-Selling foreign brand, and 2% to Tesla, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In November, the headlining news were the BYD Dynamic Duo (Tang and Yuan) continued Rise and Rise, with the first nameplate joining the Top 10.

Here’s November Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

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#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After the record 20,648 units of October, BAIC’s small EV returned to more normal performances, with 14,205 units being delivered last month. With almost twice as much registrations as the #2 BYD Qin in 2018, the EC-Series continues to disrupt the Chinese market, replicating what the Tesla Model 3 is doing in the USA. The revised design and improved specs (new 30 kWh battery) allowed the EC-Series to remain a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($25,000, before subsidies).

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#2 – BYD Tang PHEV: After seven months on the market, the second-generation Tang continues to expand sales, registering a record 6,405 registrations. Sales should continue strong for BYD’s successful flagship, and new record sales could still be achieved in the future, although the upcoming BEV Tang could steal sales from it. As for the current Tang PHEV specs, BYD’s Sports SUV saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things stayed the same, with some 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs. All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816.

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#3 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a record 6,188 deliveries in November, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Will the Yuan be the fiercest competitor in 2019 to the all-conquering BAIC EC-Series? With a 40,000 waiting list, demand is no problem, I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang is more profitable…), than actual demand, sitting on a sparsely populated part of the market (small BEV crossovers), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

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#4 – BYD e5: BYD’s bread and butter electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered a record 5,573 units in November, and yet, this performance was overshadowed by the stars Tang and Yuan. This Andre Iguodala (Who?) of the BYD lineup, has some strong specs (61 kWh, 405 kms range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600). Unfortunately, the basic design makes it a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, next to the Tangs, Qins, Songs and Yuans...

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#5 – Baojun E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors had high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and despite an irregular career, it is finally starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered 5,155 units last month, a year best. With an updated range in 2018 (250 kms NEDC), thanks to a new 24 kWh battery, its price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, is quite alluring, especially considering its modern design and features.

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Junfeng Skio: Dongfeng's "EC-Series"

2018 ranking

In a record month, there were plenty of models shining, besides the aforementioned records mentioned in the Top 5 Sellers, the #19 Hawtai xEV compact SUV registered a record 3,257 units, while the #20 Dongfeng Junfeng Skio, a new face in this Top 20, scored 4,142 units, not only a new record for Dongfeng’s subcompact car, but also for any of the maker EV nameplates.

There were also some significant changes in the ranking, the Chery eQ climbed to #5, while BYD’s star models, the Tang and Yuan, continue their never ending rise, with the midsize SUV jumping three positions, to #8, signaling the Tang return to the Top 10, while the subcompact electric crossover Yuan did even better, shooting up four spots, to #11, while it prepares itself to join the Top 10 in December, making 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10...

That’s what’s impressive about BYD, unlike others, that are dependent from their star player performance (see LeBron James at the Cavs), BYD has a constellation in its lineup, replicating the success formula of the Golden State Warriors in the EV universe. And with looong waiting lists, the Yuan alone has 40,000 reservations, the 400,000 units target that the company has for 2019 seems quite feasible.   

Outside the Top 20, there’s much to talk about, the BMW 530e continues to amaze, having scored yet another record performance, with 2,649 units, with the German sedan being not only the bestselling plugin of its category, but also the best performing foreign model, in #22.

But in November the BMW model had a tough race for the Best-Selling Foreign Model title, as the Nissan Sylphy EV started to fire on all cylinders charge up at full speed, with 2,400 units being registered, so December should be an entertaining race between both models, unless…

Unless the recently arrived Volkswagens steal the show.

The midsize VW Passat PHEV sedan landed with a bang, scoring 1,513 units in its debut month, the best arrival for a foreign nameplate ever, while the compact SUV Tiguan PHEV also scored a not negligible 618 units, so November signaled Volkswagen’s real arrival to this market, and considering the German brand is the most popular maker in the country, expect it to be a major player soon.

Elsewhere, the Nio ES8 continues with its gradual ramp up (3,089 registrations last month), being once again the Best-Selling Luxury SUV last month, allowing the new startup SUV to remove the Tesla Model X from the yearly category leadership.

With the new ES6 midsize SUV said to start deliveries by mid-2019, the Chinese startup is making the best use of the short time it has to grow and win scale, before the Big Boys land with their dedicated BEVs.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the new Tang and Yuan, while the runner-up BAIC (15%), is finally profiting from the EC-Series sales infusion to retain share, and in Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (7%) had a horrible month, with only 6,700 deliveries, its worst result since February, allowing Chery (6% share) to come closer, now with hopes to reach the podium, which would be the first time that Chery would win a medal since 2014.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Germany November 2018

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Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf run for #1

After a positive October, the German PEV passenger car market slipped again in November, down 2% to 6,266 registrations, with a seismic change happening in the fuels mix, with BEVs jumping (+41% YoY), while PHEVs continue sinking (-39%), with full electrics outselling plugin hybrids (68% share for BEVs in November), frankly above the 2018 share (51% each).

Because the mainstream market is dropping even faster (-10%) than plugins, the PEV Share climbed to 2.3% in November
, with BEVs alone hitting 1.6%, while YTD, the total PEV share remained stable at 1.9%.

Looking at November Best Sellers, you can see the good moment of all-electric models, with the Renault Zoe breaking the previous all-time record for a single model (980 units, in Oct.'15, by the Kia Soul EV), with 1,047 units.

The VW e-Golf was Second, thanks to a best ever result of 858 deliveries, it seems VW opened the gates for BEV production, as the little e-Up! registered 126 units, the nameplate best result since March. 

But the surprise of the month was the Nissan Leaf reaching the Fifth Spot, that with 366 deliveries, had its best result since March '15. Will we see it here more often? I bet we will...

Renault Zoe
VW e-Golf
BMW 225xe A. Tourer
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf

The German PEV market is known for close races and its changes and surprises, and November was no exception, first of all, the Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf became the only two candidates for the 2018 Best Seller award, as both stepped up the pace last month.

It will be a close race for the leadership, interestingly, if the e-Golf wins the 2018 trophy, it would be a first for Volkswagen, as so far the best results it had was two Third Places, one in 2014, with the VW e-Up!, and the second in 2015, with the VW Golf GTE.   

The last place of the podium also has an interesting race, with two BMW's (i3 and 225xe AT) separated by less than 100 units, 77 to be more precise.

Below the top positions, there were some interesting changes, the Nissan Leaf jumped two positions, to #8, making 7 BEVs in the Top 8 spots, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also went up two spots, to #11, thanks to 386 units, the nameplate best result in its 5 year career. 

The BMW 530e climbed to #14, and with the now discontinued Mercedes E350e only 90 units ahead, the BMW PHEV is now the favorite to end the year as the Best Selling Luxury plugin.

Finally, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric rose to #15, thanks to 227 registrations, underlining the good moment that pure electrics are experiencing.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the 220 registrations of the Audi e-Tron, no doubt demostration units, but a large amount nevertheless, especially considering that full deliveries should start only in February. Will the Big Audi be the 2019 Luxury PEV Best Seller?

Uncoincidentally, the Tesla Model X deliveries are down 29% YoY, while the Model S is faring even worse, with a sharp 60% drop, although in this last case, this has more to do with the Model 3 long shadow, than any (read, Porsche Taycan) other upcoming model. 

In the brands ranking, BMW (18%, down 1%) is in the leadership, ahead of Volkswagen (16%, down 1%) while the #3 Smart (10%, down 1%) is in the last place of the podium, with Renault (9%, up 1%) still trying to reach the Bronze medal.