FCEV's Full Year 2019

We take a look at Fuel Cell vehicles sales performance in 2019, the introduction of the Hyundai Nexo was the much needed spark that ignited sales (+90% YoY) to its best year ever (7,500 units), so Fuel Cells finally surpassed the EV sales score of…2010.

If they follow the same growth curve as plug-ins, we should see this technology reach 200.000 sales by 2022...Or not. 

But let's look at the individual performances of the three models currently on sale:

Hyundai Nexo - The first full year of the Korean Fuel Cell model ended at 4,818 units, 87% of them coming from its domestic market, the only market in the world where FCEV's are making itself noted. This result allowed Hyundai to recover the Best Seller title for the first time since 2014, shattering at the same time the Mirai previous yearly record (2.689 units, in 2017). For this year, expect the Korean SUV to continue growing, maybe hitting some 7.000 units for the full year. 

Toyota Mirai - 2.407 Mirai were registered in 2019, a slight (27 units) increase over the previous year, but below the 2017 result. Basically, the current Mirai is not capable of selling more than 2.000-something units/year. Maybe the Second Generation could sell around 1.000 units/month?

Honda Clarity FCEV - 349 units were registered in  2019, half of the 2018 numbers. Maybe realizing the disaster in its hands, Honda decided to switch to electric cars, and if the attractive Honda e is any indication, it should be an interesting future…

Fuel Cells June 2017 - Fools Cells?

We take a look at Fuel Cell vehicles sales performance in the first half of 2017, after the introduction of the Toyoa Mirai in 2015, FCEV's are on their Year Two, more or less where EV's were in 2012, so if they follow the same growth curve as plug-ins, we should see this technology reach 100.000 sales this year.

Well, is it going to reach six digits? At 1.602 units registered this year, up 39% YoY, it is well below that, if they reach 5.000 this year, it will already be a good result

But let's look at the individual performances of the three models currently on sale:

Toyota Mirai - 1.169 Mirai were registered in 2017, a small step above the 1.020 of the previous year, but well below expectations. I had thought the model would be selling around 1.000 units/month, so...Why the slow sales?

Honda Clarity FCEV - 359 units were registered in  the first half of its first full sales year, well above the 113 units of 2016, its landing year, but below expectations (1.000 units in the first half of 2017). But the interesting thing here is that Honda, maybe realizing the upcoming disaster, decided to make the car available also as PHEV and BEV. It will be up to the consumer to decide what to pick, and i bet both the BEV and PHEV will outsell the FCEV version...

Hyundai ix35/Tucson FCEV - Numbers of the Korean Fuel Cell dropped slightly regarding 2016, with 74 units being registered this year. A discontinued model in its ICE form, and currently being done by special order, it is  amazingly still the best selling FCEV in Europe, with 46 units.

If the Model 3 is BMW's boogeyman, imagine what it should be to Fuel Cells...

(Spoiler alert: Diapers needed)

The Future

Looking forward, the upcoming 2018 Hyundai FE Fuel Cell may be the technology last chance to survive, said to have 800 kms range and, crucially, cheaper than the 65.000 euro, it could be the break out model needed to reach the tens of thousands units per year, the minimum needed to start creating economies of scale.

Thing is...2018 will be Year One of the EV entry into the mainstream, with exponential growth and at least three models surpassing the 100.000 units sales per year (Tesla Model 3 - 300k; Nissan Leaf II - 150-200k; Toyota Prius Prime/PHV - 120k), and the Chinese market continuing to grow in large volumes, the economies of scale for PEVs are becoming too large for Fuel Cells to follow suit.

And with no other automakers betting for real in FCEVs, it all looks that the technology will become a footnote in the passenger car history, possibly as part of a Fools Cell joke.

Now, regarding Heavy Duty Trucks and Buses, they could still have a shot of success here, but with with the Tesla Semi Truck coming in a couple of years and the Chinese BEV Bus makers preparing to invade foreign markets, the window of success is becoming smaller and smaller...

FCEV's: Fools Cells?

The Three Fuel Cell Musketeers: Mirai, Clarity and Tucson/ix35

2016 was heralded by many as the "Year of the Fuel Cell" because it will be the first full year of regular production of the Toyota Mirai and the introduction year of the Honda Clarity, which, adding to the already existing Hyundai Tucson/ix35 SUV, makes three models to choose from for prospective buyers interested in this kind of technology.

Unlike many detractors, which call them Fools Cells, i actually envision a future for this kind of technology, but also unlike the promoters of FCEV's, i just don't see them facing Battery Electric Vehicles head to head in the mainstream passenger cars, for me, Fuel Cells will be a niche player for larger, heavy-duty vehicles, a bit like Diesel is now in the USA and other markets outside diesel-loving Europe.

Let's see which are the main reasons for this assumption:

• Oil and Gas Industry are closely connected with Fuel Cells.

Unlike BEV's, where Electricity Utility companies are not actively lobbying, the almighty Oil and Gas industry are promoting heavily FCEV's as a way to keep their business running in a future with reduced revenue from oil, so it is expected for this technology to be more subsidized than BEV's, because of intensive lobbying and "high powers that be" will to keep on running business as usual.

• Fuel Cell technology does have its strong points.

The most important of them being fast refueling (Compared with a BEV) and reduced emissions (Compared to a gas car), so FCEV's can make a strong case for themselves when compared to regular ICE cars and even compared to BEV's in some specific niches, like long-range buses or heavy-duty trucks (Or even airplanes), where vehicles are used almost continuously, without time to stop and recharge for long periods, these advantages are key for the future for FCEV's. 

• But they also have downsides.

Besides the debatable question of reduced emissions, as it depends on which side of the wall you are in, there are unquestionable downsides to the technology, not only it is much more complex (And expensive) than a pure electric car, but it also uses a lot of space, which is another area where BEV's excel, comparing with regular cars. Add that to the fact that FCEV's are 6 to 7 years behind in economies of scale, regarding BEV's, and you have the main reasons for Fuel Cells losing the mainstream passenger car market to all electric cars.

2009 Toyota Highlander FCEV prototype

The foreseeable future for FCEV's

As seen before, FCEV's are a valuable replacement for regular ICE vehicles, but can't compete head on with BEV's, so they are left with niches where all-electric vehicles will have more difficulties to enter and Fuel Cell downsides are less determinant, like long range heavy-duty vehicles (Buses, Trucks, etc) and some of the larger Vans, Minivans, SUV's and Pick-up Trucks. 

Big Mistake

But instead of focusing on the technology strengths and go for larger vehicles, Fuel Cell promoters, like Toyota, Honda or Hyundai, are trying to sell the FCEV concept to the wrong market segments, be it midsize cars, like the Toyota Mirai or Honda Clarity, or compact SUV's, markets where BEV's will have it easier to win market share and Fuel Cells have a harder time disguising their weak points (Higher price and poorer space-efficiency), with this losing precious time to defend their possible niche markets from plug-ins. 

Also, in the Toyota case, giving the Mirai some Aztec-rivaling challenging aesthetics didn't helped much either...

Losing Ground

The disruptive force that Tesla is becoming, pushing plug-ins out of their niche and into mainstream, stealing sales from established ICE automakers like BMW (28%), Toyota (23%) or Audi (20%), it is also becoming increasingly menacing to the newborn Fuel Cell technology, as range of the Model S now touches 300 miles, it is close to the 312 (502 kms) announced by the Mirai, while eclipsing the 2014 Honda FCX Clarity (231 miles) and Hyundai Tucson/ix35 Fuel Cell (265).

True, the almost 300-mile Model S 90D is more expensive than the Mirai, but the difference isn't that significant (102.100€ vs 78.540€ in Germany) if you consider the Tesla is a car from a segment above, better in almost every aspect AND has lower running costs. Besides, the base Model S costs around 80.000€ and apart from range, it continues to be a far superior vehicle.

But the car segment is not where FCEV's are at their best, large SUV's and Pick-up trucks are markets where Fuel Cells could easily replace ICE models, but it seems that automakers are reluctant to make a Toyota Sequoia or Honda Ridgeline FCEV, preferring to keep their high margins in those cash-cow markets.

Only...If they don't hurry up, Tesla will (again) eat a slice of their cake, the Model X 90D has 257 miles of range, little less than of a possible Mirai SUV would have, and as the case of the Model S, it would be a more expensive but far better product than a hypothetical Mirai SUV.

As consequence, big SUV's could be already a lost market for FCEV's, so as the possibilities narrow down, the urgency for these automakers to shift priorities and launch Fuel Cell technology where it can be competitive (Pick-ups...) is increasing, as Tesla and others (BYD buses and do not forget the upcoming Chrysler Pacifica PHEV in the Minivan market) expand into new segments, FCEV's chances for success start to look increasingly smaller, not because the technology itself, but because of greed and mistakes made by the automakers committed to promote it.

Fools Cells? Not yet. But the odds are against them.