Monday, November 30, 2020

Global Top 20 October 2020

 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação

Models: VW ID.3 and Wuling Mini EV shine in (near) Record month

After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has brought a hot plugin market, and October was no exception, after a record September, last month registrations were at near record levels, with 342.000 units, just 3.000 units below the previous month.

With plugin registrations going up 127%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, both technologies were hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 230.000 units, while PHEVs grew 131%, to a record 111.000 units.

This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +21% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks (Covid willing...) 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins. 

With the overall automotive market losing momentum, added to a near record month, the October PEV share stayed at a record 4.9% share (3.3% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.5% (2.4% BEV), which is a full 1% share above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing now at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 

The low tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, but the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a record 20.631 units last month, with the tiny EV coming close to the leader, this being the first time since January that anyone was close to the Tesla midsizer .

While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, Tesla's baby SUV had to make an effort to stay in front of the Volkswagen ID.3, with the new German EV losing its podium presence by just 18 units. Better luck in November?

The Wuling Mini EV was the Climber of the Month, jumping 4 positions, to 3rd, and with the continuing production ramp up, the Chinese EV will eventually catch the #2 Renault Zoe, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium.

Regarding other position changes, the Audi e-Tron climbed to #7, followed by GAC's Aion S, that was also up, to #8.

On the PHEV side, the Best Selling model in October was the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, scored 4.834 units, with the remaining podium positions last month being filled by two models outside this Top 20 which, funny enough, both came from the Mercedes stable, with the A250e (4.277 units) and the GLC300e/de (4.139). 

With the BMW 530e/Le and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV showing its wrinkles and the Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV suffering from battery suply problems, the VW plugin hybrid model is now the leader of the category and has the road open to win the 2020 Best Selling PHEV title.

On the second half of the table, the Baojun E-Series climbed two spots, to #13, thanks to a record performance of 5.919 units, Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumped three positions, to #17, with a record 6.269 registrations, while we have two models returning to the Top 20, the Chery eQ (re)joined the Top 20, in #19, and in #20 we now have the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that managed to return to the table, thanks to a record 3.440 units.

Finally, outside the Top 20,  models deserve a mention, with the #22 NIO ES6 and the #23 Li Xiang One looking to join the table soon, something that the hot VW ID.3 should be able to do next month, despite still being some 3,600 behind the #20 Volvo XC60 PHEV, which would make just 3 PHEVs in the table.

Manufacturers: SGMW shines 

Despite being in low tide mode, Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title and is in a different league, but immediately below it, there were plenty of record performances, 6 to be exact, with the most relevant coming from the SGMW joint venture (26.907 units), that allowed the City EV maker to jump 5 positions, to 6th, but also Mercedes, that registered 20.976 units, its 3rd 4th record score in a row(!), allowing the three-pointed star brand to climb to #5, and while the #4 BMW is too far ahead to be bothered by its arch rival, expect Mercedes to easily beat the Bavarian maker. 

In a different scale, young little NIO climbed to #19, having reached a record 5.055 deliveries last month, while Porsche(!) jumped two spots, to #17, a small feat for the high end brand, while Great Wall joined the table, in #18, with a record 8.115 registrations, now making 6 Chinese brands in the table.

And more could join soon, as outside the Top 20, the #22 Chery is rising fast and should replace Ford next month.

Looking at the ranking by OEMs, the VW Group won in October, with 47.000 registrations, followed by SAIC (43.000 units), while Tesla was relegated to 3rd.

SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Europe October 2020

VW ID.3 galore...


13% share in (almost) record month! 

Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-27% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered 147,000 registrations in October (+195% YoY), the second best score ever, only behind the 160,000 units of last September, and placing last month plugin share at 13% share (6.5% BEV), helping the YTD numbers to rise 113%, to over 900,000 units, and pulling the 2020 PEV share to 9.5% (5.1% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that the disruptive 10% mark will already be hit this year! 

And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, do hear some 15%-plus market share in the last month of they year?

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

..So if disruption is already starting in 2020, now imagine next year! #Disruption '21!

This time BEVs (73.257 units, +192% YoY), grew at the same pace as PHEVs, whose sales continue jumping through the roof (+198%), allowing these last ones to hit a new record month (73,349), pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the VW ID.3, that managed to beat the Renault Zoe in October, and benefited from the first-month-of-quarter low tide of the Tesla Model 3.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as October's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  in the plugin market are in the same order as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at September Top 5 Models:

#1 Volkswagen ID.3 - Veni, vidi, vici. After years of anticipation, the 2021 Best Selling EV in Europe has finally landed, and in only its second month on the market, the new German hatchback has hit its first five-digit score, with 10,584 registrations, surely the first of several monthly wins for VW's new baby. The first  MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in October in Norway (2,475 units), Germany (2,647) and the Netherlands (2,789), with France (524) being a distant 4th. Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe for the monthly Best Seller titles. 

#2 Renault Zoe – October brought a another good month for the French EV, with 9,890 deliveries to the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (5,010 units, new record and #7 in the local overall market!), followed by France (2,507), with the UK (500 units) and Italy (306) also helping along. For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production constraints, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates, thanks to the Czech plant production, and after scoring consecutive record months, the model seems to be stabilizing at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,441 deliveries in October seem to signal.  Back to last month performance, the Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,932 deliveries, followed by France (627 units) and Norway (519). 

#4 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the maker star player and the most recent Best Seller in the PHEV field, with October registering 4,272 units, with the biggest market its home Germany (1,547 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (395 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?

#5 Kia Niro EV - After years of production constraints, Kia has finally found enough batteries to comply with the large demand of its more family-friendly version of the successful (and not so long ago, also battery-constrained) Hyundai Kona EV, having delivered 3,938 units. Kia's current star player main markets in October were the UK (800 units), Netherlands (752) and France (678), with Germany (421) not far off. In fact, unlike other makers, that focus deliveries in a couple of countries, starving the rest, Kia is allocating deliveries in a more democratic manner, with 8 countries having 3-digit performances in October. 

Looking at the remaining October Best Sellers, the BMW 330e jumped to #7, and with a record score, in this case 3,895 deliveries, most of them being from the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples), but BMW only now has started to deliver its midsize PHEV in SW body.

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, in the 5 VW Group models in this Top 20, 3 (VW ID.3, VW Passat GTE, Audi Q5 PHEV) hit record deliveries, while the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV scored 2,986 units in its landing month, the nameplate's best score since December 2015. 

Another recent addition is the Renault Captur PHEV, that thanks to a swift ramp up, has already registered 2,893 units last month, helping Renault to broaden its lineup, that so far only lived from the Zoe's fortunes.

On the BEV side, we also have models shining, like the Mini Cooper EV, that hit a record 2,477 registrations last month, while the Smart Fortwo EV had its best performance ever, with 2,847 units, highlighting Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group had records galore last month, with both Smart EVs scoring record results (the Forfour EV had 891 registrations), and 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, C-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores, and the Mercedes E300e/de (2,164 units) having a year best performance. Sure, most are PHEVs, but the 1,884 EQCs delivered in October allowed it to be  that month best Selling midsize BEV, ahead of the Tesla Model 3, Polestar 2, BMW i...Oh, right...The iX3 still hasn't landed yet...  

Outside this Top 20, a reference to the 1,881 deliveries of the new Mazda MX-30, with the Japanese carmaker promoting (as in, hard discounting, with 6,000€ already being taken off the initial pricing...) as much as it can its uniquely-designed electric crossover, in order to comply with this year's EU CO2 emission rules, while on the PSA field, it's time to ramp up Citroen's first PHEV, with the C5 Aircross PHEV registering 1,925 units, while Peugeot is ramping up its 2008 EV, with the crossover reaching 1,943 units in October.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, there were several position changes in the Top 10, with the most important being the Hyundai Kona EV taking over the 3rd spot from the sunset-mode VW e-Golf, while the troubled Ford Kuga PHEV fell from #6 to #10, to the benefit of the Peugeot 208 EV, up one spot, to #6, and the Kia Niro EV, that jumped from 10th to 7th, thus making a fully BEV Top 8!

And next month it should be a fully BEV Top 9, as the rising star VW ID.3 joined the table in #12 and should jump to 6th(ish) in November.

On the PHEV field, if the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered the category leadership, this shouldn't be for long, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #14 Mercedes A250e...) are running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in the last two stages of the race, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

Looking at other position changes, the BMW 3303 is now the top selling BMW, in #16, having surpassed the veteran BMW i3, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV, fell from #12 to #15, despite having a record score (2,719 units) in October. In a surging market, sometimes doing your best just isn't enough to stay afloat...

Besides the aforementioned VW ID.3, we have another new face in the Top 20, with the Audi Q5 PHEV SUV joining the table in #20, being the 6th VW Group model in this Top 20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (10% share) is keeping precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), while Tesla (7%, down 2% share) lost the 3rd spot to Mercedes (9%, up 1%) strong (and long) lineup.

Outside the podium, BMW (7% down 1%), and Volvo (7%, down 1%) are running for #5, as it will be unlikely they will be able to keep up with Tesla's upcoming end of quarter high tide.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 47% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,564 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021,  don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells  half of the Mercedes EQC...

The real competition should only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it should also outsell it.

As for the remaining podium, the Mercedes EQC has increased its lead over the Jaguar i-Pace, profiting from the sales decline of the British sports SUV (-17% YoY, to 891 units), with the slow ramp up of the Mercedes electric SUV already starting to reach significant volumes (1,884 units in October), allowing the electric Merc to be October's Best Selling midsize BEV.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,451 units last month, doubling the numbers of 12 months ago, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,381 units last month) in cruise speed, both flagship Tesla deliveries were low, with the Model X having 310 units in October and the Model S some 238 units, but interestingly, the higher riding Tesla saw a 6% YoY increase in deliveries, while the lower riding nameplate deliveries remained stable.

This is still a rarefied market, as the only other model with significant registrations last month was the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (131 units), but in the next few months there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), so the 2021 race should be more interesting to follow.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

China October 2020


Wuling Mini EV shines in hot market

While the overall Chinese market remained with positive numbers last month (+9% YoY), plugins sales are firmly on the fast lane, growing by 120% YoY in October, to 147,000 units, a new year best, with BEVs growing faster (+128%), than plugin hybrids (+93%), allowing pure electrics to have 82% of all plugin sales last month, slightly above this year average of 79%.

Last month, plugin share reached 7% (5.4% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 5.4% (4.3% BEV), that although is still below from the 5.5% score of 2019, it is a step in the right direction and it should surpass last year's result already in November.

Looking at October Best Sellers, we have 3 City EVs, confirming the return of small EVs to the spotlight, with the Wuling EV keeping the Best Seller status..

Here’s October Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

 A big name for a small car, the Wuling EV scored a record 20,631 units last month, a new all-time record for a single model in China, meaning that the production ramp up continues, so expect the tiny four-seater to continue growing until the end of the year. The reason for the overnight success? It is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV. Range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles... At this price level, the Wuling EV is in position to be a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV could be a game changer, and not only in China...


#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit 12,143 units last month, with Tesla’s midsizer steady in the 10,000-plus cruise speed. With the recent refresh and new LFP SR+ version added to the year end sales bump right on the corner, will we see it reach some 15,000 units/month in December?


 #3 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Probably inspired by Deng Xiaoping famous quote: "It doesn't matter wether a cat is black or white, as long as it catched mice",  Great Wall decided to create a Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall is now preparing the launch of the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. But enough of the Good Cat, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 6.269 units in October, the City EV highest score ever, so it looks the new name is allowing a second youth to the Ora Black Cat, making it a good cat, because of the many mice sales it gets.

#4 – SAIC Baojun E-Series

Compared with the bare basics Wuling EV, the Baojun E-Series (E100/200/300) are the SGMW more hip and upmarket city models, seeing their demand stay high during the past few months, scoring even a Year Best result last month, thanks to 5,949 units delivered. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes them appealing for young urban drivers, as well as car-sharing companies and other fleets. 

#5 – BYD Han EV

BYD's flagship model was 5th in October, having registered 5,055 units, a new record for the sleek sedan, so it looks the production ramp up is going smoothly and demand is allowing consecutive record performances. One of the most competitive domestic EVs on the market, the Han EV will probably become a regular in this Top 5, thanks to competitive pricing, it's the size of a Model S, and yet it costs only $32,800, less than the cheaper Model 3. But price doesn't tell the whole story, with a cutting edge 77 kWh LFP battery allowing it to reach 605 km (376 miles) NEDC range (think 400 km / 250 miles in real world), the Han EV is a whole package, with good looks, competitive specs and features, with the killer prices being just the icing on the cake.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in October, a mention to a few record performances, namely SAIC's Roewe Clever EV, with the Shanghai-based maker banking on the synergies of the SGMW joint-venture in small EVs, it has also created it's own vision of the tiny two-seater theme, with the Clever EV, that clocked 3,054 units last month.

The Welmeister EX5 record month (3,003 units), added to Leapmotor's surprising  score of 1,681 units coming from its small T03 EV, confirms the good moment (and variety, Leapmotor even has a small coupe, the S01) of local EV Startups, while BYD had 3 models with record performances, besides the aforementioned Han EV (5,055 units), the Han PHEV (2,490) evil twin also hit a record score, with the two models clocking 7,545 units if added together, while the compact BYD e2 also reach a record 2,598 units, and even the Tang PHEV had its best score of the last 18 months, with 3,721 units, with these performances confirming the return to form from the Shenzhen maker.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the sucess of Geely’s Geometry C, with 1,189 units, with the Chinese maker succeeding with this hatchback, where its sedan (Geometry A) failed. A mention also to the ramp up of the Great Wall Ora R2/White Cat, that delivered 1,651 units, while the recent SAIC Roewe ER6 EV sedan is also ramping up fast, having reached 1.124 units last month.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the Model 3 is the undisputed leader, below it, the Wuling Mini EV is running away from the rest of the pack and has already consolidated its runner-up spot, a nice start for next year's Best Selling EV in China.

This highlights the latest trend in China, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Wuling EV, but also the #5 Baojun E-Series, the newly called Great Wall Ora Black Cat in #6, and the Chery eQ that climbed to #7 in October, thus making 4 City EVs in the Top 7   

But it weren’t only City EVs rising in the table, as the local EV startups continue climbing positions, with the Li Xiang One yacht large SUV rising to #9, and becoming the Best Selling PHEV in the table, by switching positions with the BMW 530Le.

The much hyped XPeng P7 had reasons to celebrate, as the sedan joined the table, in #20, while BYD and SAIC also had a positive month, as the BYD Han EV climbed to #18 and the Tang PHEV jumped two spots, to #15, and the Shanghai-based maker saw the small Roewe Clever EV join the Top 20, in #19, and the MG ZS EV crossover going up to #13.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (15%) is in the leadership, followed by the #2 Tesla (12%), and the SGMW joint-venture (10%, up 1% share).

Below the podium, the race is tight, SAIC (7%, up 1% share) is now 4th, overcoming the #5 GAC (6%), while Volkswagen (5%, down 1% share) fell from 4th to 6th in just one month, the German maker needs desperately those ID.4's to start flooding the market, because the remaining line up is already falling behind.

Interestingly, if we were to add the SGMW (10%) tally to the one of SAIC (7%), Shanghai Auto would be the market leader in China, with 17% share...

Friday, November 20, 2020

Germany October 2020


18% share in record month! 

The German plugin market had yet another record month in October, with a little over 48,000 units, and this time it were BEVs to drive the market forward, up 365%(!), to 23,158 units, helping plugins as a whole jump an amazing 303% last month, with the plugin share reaching a record 18% (8.4% BEV), pulling the yearly tally to 11% (5.3% BEV), so this market is now firmly in the two-digits area, also known as...The Disruption Zone.

And in a (sort of) stable market (-4% YoY), petrol (-30%) and diesel (-19%) continue falling, to the benefit of electricity, leaving fossil fuels as deadweights on the shoulders of Legacy OEMs...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, in October the Renault Zoe broke once again all records, by registering 5,010 units, beating the runner-up VW ID.3, that built on the 1,771 units of September to deliver 2,647 units, with Volkswagen placing a 2nd model on the podium, as the Passat GTE broke its record, by delivering 2,053 units, allowing it to reach the 3rd place in October.

Below the podium Top Sellers, the #4 Hyundai Kona EV jumped to #4 in September, benefiting from the increased capacity of the Czech plant, registering a record 1,932 units, in fact in a record month, best ever performances are plenty, in the September Top 20, 15 models had record scores, 7 of them coming from the VW Group stable (VW ID.3, VW Passat GTE, Audi Q5 PHEV, Audi A6 PHEV, Audi e-Tron, Skoda Superb PHEV, VW Golf PHEV), highlighting the production ramp-up of the German conglomerate, while the VW e-Golf had 1,300 registrations, an impressive performance, considering its much improved successor is already established.

Outside this Top 20, we have several models in ramp-up mode, like the Volvo XC40 PHEV (620 units), or the 710 registrations of the Mini Cooper EV, while the Mercedes GLE350de continues to ramp up production (655 deliveries) and we welcome the first 72 registrations of the new VW ID.4 SUV, no doubt the first of many. 

Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, with the leader Zoe probably having 2020 title secured, because the 6,830 units of advantage over the #2 VW e-Golf and the 10.383 units over the #3 Tesla Model 3 now seem impossible to beat.

The first position change happened in #5, with the Hyundai Kona EV rising one spot, immediately followed by the Mercedes E300e/de, that was up to #7.

Speaking of Mercedes, the three-pointed-star maker had another model climbing in the table, with the GLC300e/de rising to #16, while their Daimler Group cousin, the Smart Fortwo EV joined the Top 10, in #8. 

Below the tiny hatchback, we have two Audis on the rise, with the e-Tron rising to #10, while the Q5 PHEV was up to #12. 

Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, the VW ID.3 joined the table, in #18,with the Volkswagen new baby looking to reach a Top 10 position by year end, while on the BMW stable, the i3 climbed one position, to #14.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (14%, down 1%) lead is now being threatened by the rising Mercedes (14%), that thanks to a strong (and long) PHEV lineup, is looking to reach the top spot. The ID.3 (and upcoming ID.4) volume deliveries are coming right on time for the Wolfsburg brand...

The #3 Audi (10%) remains stable, while outside the podium, Renault (8%) stays ahead of BMW (7%).

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is stable at 30% (VW - 14%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 4%; Porsche - 2%), above the rising Daimler Group, with 18%, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance closing the podium, with 12%.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

France October 2020

Renault Twingo lands in hot market (12% share!)

If the overall automotive market continues in negative ground (-10% in October), plugin sales continue steaming hot (+360%!), with PHEVs (up 388%, to 9,945 units, a new record) in particular, shining above everyone, allowing them to have a 50% share among plugins, an all-time high for the technology in this BEV-friendly market, and well above the 38% share they have in the whole year. 

These disruptive numbers are also reflecting on the plugin share, as last month it reached 12% (6% BEV), pulling the YTD share to 9.7% (6% BEV), so one can say that the bulk of growth comes from PHEVs. 

Expect the numbers to improve in the remainder of the year, with the 2020 tally probably going north of 10% by year end, which will prelude the upcoming #Disruption '21 - French Edition

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the top 2 were the usual local heroes, but below them, we have the two new local players, both playing on the PHEV field, that explain part of the recent sales surge in that technology, with the Renault Captur PHEV jumping to 3rd, thanks to a record 1,693 registrations, while the Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV ramped up deliveries to 926 units, with the double chevron SUV looking to ramp up production fast and beat the small Renault crossover in the last two stages of the 2020 race. 

We have two models tied in #5, with the Kia Niro EV scoring a record 678 registrations, the same number of units that the new Renault Twingo had in its landing month, a promising result for Renault's much anticipated (and delayed...) new baby.

Speaking of fresh models, a reference also to the VW ID.3, that scored 524 units in its second month in France, which is lower than the 616 units of the landing month. Allocation issues, or is it something else?

On the other hand, Mercedes is busy ramping up deliveries of its extensive PHEV lineup, with 3 models hitting relevant (and record) performances last month: the GLC300e/de SUV scored 513 units, the A250e hatchback had 395 units, while the new GLA250e compact SUV is already at 249 deliveries. 

It took them a while to get their show on the road, but the fact is that Mercedes is now well ahead of its arch-rival BMW, that had their only decent performances coming from Mini, with the Cooper EV scoring a record 425 deliveries, while the Countryman PHEV (225 units), outsold every BMW plugin model available...

Outside this Top 20, a reference to the landing of the SEAT Leon PHEV, with a relevant 184 units, while Jeep's plugin models are starting to gain traction, with the small Renegade PHEV registering 126 units, while the compact Compass PHEV had 125 deliveries.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, while the top 2 remain unattainable, the last position of the podium can changed hands, with the Peugeot 3008 PHEV recovering the 3rd spot (only to lose it next December, the time of the next Tesla high tide on French shores), while below them, the Kia Niro EV surpassed a falling DS 7 PHEV, with the Korean crossover now reaching the 6th position. 

But the Climber of the Month was the Renault Captur PHEV, that shooted 7 positions, into #8, with the small French crossover focused on climbing up the ladder in the final two stages and steal the Best Selling PHEV title from the Peugeot 3008 PHEV. 

On the second half of the table, we have the VW Golf PHEV climbing two spots, to #16, thanks to fresh units coming from the new generation Golf VIII, while below this position, we have four fresh faces in the table:

- The #17 Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV SUV replaced the Jurassic Citroen C-Zero on the table, signaling a new age for the French brand, that i am sure the upcoming C4 EV hatchback will play an important follow up role;

- The Mini Cooper EV joined the table in #18, proving that range isn't everything, especially in the small car category, where price and desirability are also key factors;

- The well rounded Mercedes A250e reached the table, in #19, becoming the second model of the three-pointed-star brand in the Top 20, signaling the rising importance of the German brand on the plugin market;

- Finally, in #20, we have the Opel Corsa EV, the 8th(!) PSA model in the table, with the French conglomerate benefiting from a large collection of brands (Peugeot, Citroen, DS, Opel) to populate the table. 

IF the upcoming PSA-FCA merger manages to successfully integrate the 114 brands it will have under its umbrella, the future Stellantis Group will become a force to be reckoned, as it will have a massive scale and will play relevant roles in several major markets, with the exception being Asia, and most specifically, China, where they lack a competitive local associate.

Looking at the brands ranking, the leader is, as always, Renault (26%, up 1%), with the runner-up Peugeot (19%) at a safe distance, while the last place in the podium is being disputed by a long list of brands (Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, DS), all with 5% share.

As for OEMs, the Renault-Nissan Alliance (30%) has recovered and in now ahead of PSA (28%), while the best foreign OEM is  Hyundai-Kia, with 10% share.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Netherlands October 2020


VW ID.3 shines in hot market (29% Share!)

October saw the Dutch EV market saw it return to the fast lane, jumping 228% YoY, to 9,16 units, the market 's best score, if we exclude the December months, that are prone incentive-derived year end rushes. 

So...will next December post a new record performance?

The PEV market share jumped to 29% (23% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 17% (13% BEV), and this time BEVs were the main driver of growth, being responsible for 79% of all plugin sales last month, above the 75% yearly average, mostly thanks to a great result from the VW ID.3, that had 2.789 deliveries last month.

As such, looking at last month sellers, it was all about the deployment of ID.3 units, that represented almost a third of all plugin registrations, allowing it to be the #1 in the overall market, leaving the #2 Kia Niro some 1,600 units behind.

But there was more to talk about than the VW's new baby, as the Kia Niro EV registered a record 752 units, a whole 3 units above the September result, so it seems Kia's production is maxed out for the moment, so expect 2 other 700-something performances in the next couple of months for the Korean crossover, while the Polestar 2 closed the podium, with 472 units. 

Outside the Top 3, it's crossover season, with 3 representatives of the category between 4th and 6th, with the Hyundai Kona EV in 4th, the strong personality of the Mazda MX-30 surprises everyone and reaches #5, with 355 deliveries, while the Volvo XC40 PHEV (322 units) was last month Best Selling PHEV, with a slight difference regarding their S/V60 PHEV siblings (303), with Volvo being the only brand selling plugin hybrids in large numbers, which bodes well for the upcoming Volvo XC40 EV...

Another recent addition to the market showing strong results is the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover benefiting from PSA's production ramp up to reach 257 deliveries in October. 

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Kia Niro EV has recovered the leadership from the Tesla Model 3, but the current 698 units separating them are still not enough to secure the final win, because the Californian is expected to have a strong high tide in December, so this year Best Seller title should only be decided in the last stage of the race.

Buth the Climber of the Month was undoubtedly the VW ID.3, that shooted from #19 in September to the current 3rd spot, already surpassing its e-Golf predecessor, and although the first two are too far to be bothered, the German hatchback will be one of the strongest candidates for the 2021 title.

On the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron was up one position, to #13, consolidating its position as the Best Selling Luxury model, while the Opel Corsa EV benefited from the PSA production ramp up to increase deliveries and climb to #15.

We have a new face in the table, with the Polestar 2 shooting to #17, while the Mazda MX-30 should join the table soon, which could remove one of the 4 PHEVs in this Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (12%, down 2%) and Tesla (10%, down 2%), were both surpassed by Volkswagen (14%, up 4%), while Volvo (10%) is running for the Bronze medal.