Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Help Needed

Dear readers, I am calling for your help regarding 5 markets that either the data source have been dropped off or remain incomplete in spite of all my efforts to build a regular and detailed database. Your help can be anonymous if you want and will be greatly appreciated.
Monthly data has been patchy, as only BYD numbers appear on a monthly basis on chooseauto.com.cn,  if anyone has access to regular detailed data for China, currently the fourth largest EV market in the world, please contact me.
I get the feeling there is a lot of interest regarding electric cars in Russia, as it is the 5th country with more views in EV Sales, if anybody has data regarding Russia, please contact me as this can be one of those countries where things can get interesting for plug-ins very fast.
There is some data regarding the Mahindra Reva E2O performance here, but it is not a regular source and it misses the rest of the electric market, now that the Indian market is seriously considering EV's, it would be great if we could start following this market.
South Korea
There isn't any kind of data regarding this market, which is a shame considering there are several models selling there (Samsung SM3 ZE, Chevrolet Spark EV, etc) and this is a market with great growth potential. If anyone has access to regular detailed data for South Korea, could you please contact me here.
Czech Republic
Monthly data by brand and model from the sda-cia.cz website is now only available to members of the Czech Car Importers Association. This means at this stage there won’t be any Czech Republic data on EVS anymore, if anyone has access to even a portion of this data, please contact me here.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

World Top 10 March 2014

"Keeping people happy until Gen2 arrives" - Seems to be Volt primary goal now

Models - The Frog Turtle and the Rabbit

After the extraordinary performance of the media-friendly Tesla Model S in March, smashing its previous sales record (2.804 units last December) by a thousand units (3.804 cars last month!), it's easy to forget that the hard-working-but-old-news Nissan Leaf still represents 1 out of 4 plug-in cars sold in the world, and last month it established yet again a new personal best sales month, with 5.538 units sold, nearing Nissan's unofficial goal of 6.000 units/month for its electric car, another good sign for the japanese carmaker is that all three factories that make the Leaf are running at decent pace, if this trend continues, then Nissan can focus on the next unofficial goal: 8.000 units/month for 2015, divided by four factories (Japan, China, USA and the UK). The 100.000 units/year objective won't be that far off by then...

The 23.429 plug-ins sold last month represent a 37% jump regarding last year and with YTD sales mounting to 55.857, sales are going in the right direction for some 250.000-plus sales at the end of the year.

Looking further down the ranking, the Outlander is now Third surpassed by the aforementioned Model S, while behind it the Chevy Volt and Prius Plug-In are fighting sale-by-sale for #4, with the japanese winning in March by 9 units (1.739 vs 1730), but the american is still in the lead in the YTD chart by 41 units. 

Behind these, we see another position race looming, with the #6 BYD Qin being chased by the #7 Ford Fusion Energi and #8 BMW i3, with this last one starting to be sold in the US in April, BYD has to increase sales if it wants to keep its position.

Finally, the fight for #9 is also interesting, with the Ford C-Max, Volvo V60 Plug-In and the #11 VW e-Up! separated by just 60 units in the YTD ranking.

1Nissan Leaf5.53813.574241
2Tesla Model S3.8046.907133
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2.0915.823105
4Chevrolet Volt (1)1.7304.16072
5Toyota Prius Plug-In1.7394.11973
6BYD Qin8772.384440
7Ford Fusion Energi9092.26149
8BMW i39031.974420
9Ford C-Max Energi6251.67838
10Volvo V60 Plug-In6571.67037


Manufacturers - Mitsubishi holds on to #2 

In the Manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi benefits from the extended range to resist to Tesla's good month and secure the YTD #2.

Further down the ranking, this time it was Chevrolet to win the #4 place at the expense of Ford, at #7 BYD continues to improve with yet another record month (Now at 1.132 units/month), just like BMW (903 units), while Volvo secures its #10 position from Volkswagen (#11 with 671 units in March and 1.618 YTD).


(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;

Questions for April

1 - Which model will be #4? And #6? And #9?

2 - Who will improve their sales records?

3 - Can Tesla reach #3?

4 - Which manufacturer will be #4?

5 - Can the #10 Volvo resist to the upcoming VW assault?

Friday, April 25, 2014

Markets Roundup March 2014

Racing with the Big Boys...
Model S Shines in Europe

The Californian carmaker had a historical month in Norway so that shareholders had something to smile about, but it wasn't just there that the Model S outgunned the competition, as it was also #1 in Switzerland, Denmark and Belgium, while in other markets it established new personal best performances (France - 25 units; Germany - 143; Italy - 11; Austria - 25; Sweden - 26), looking that the Tesla fever is spreading through the Old Continent.  

Tesla Real Competition

Unlike other players in the market, which thrive on ICE car sales, Tesla depends entirely on the the fully electric Model S, so in order to survive, it has to go after sales of other Fullsize/ E-Segment cars across the globe, let's see how they are doing in their most important markets:

USA - With 1.600 units sold in March, the Model S is far, far away from the 13.000 units sold by the Chevy Impala, but if we consider Tesla as Premium, the Best-Seller is the Mercedes-Benz E-Class at 5.660 units and Tesla ends up in #9 on the ranking, so a lot of space to grow but also a lot of work to do here.  What if we push the Model S as a Premium Sports Sedan? Then things get a bit rosier, as only the BMW 6-Series and the much cheaper MB CLA sell more than Tesla. 

Norway - #1 in March, #1 YTD. Enough Said.

Netherlands - 190 units sold in March grant it the #2, just 15 units behind the BMW 5-Series, E-Segment Best-Seller. 

Germany - The 143 Teslas sold in March mean that it's already making a (small) dent in the Vaterland of Premium cars, it's far from the thousands/month of the 5-Series/E-Class/A6, but the 300/400 monthly units of the fullsize sport sedans Panamera and Audi A7 seem like an approachable goal in the future.

Switzerland - It's new sales record (105 units in March) it's still halfway through the 200 units/month of the E-Class... 

Denmark - Another #2 spot for the Model S (79 units), just 4 units behind the leader MB E-Class.


Trends in the G7 

Other than the otherworldly performance of Norway, where three plug-ins entered the global Top10 (Model S in #1, Leaf #4, VW e-Up! in #9 and BMW i3 in #10), a no less relevant fact is that the BYD Qin is by far the new Best Selling EV in China with 2.384 units YTD, with the 2012 record of the Chery QQ3 EV (5.305 units sold in one year) waiting to be shattered to pieces. With lots of new entrants this year (Denza EV, Venucia e30, BYD Tang...), it looks that this will be finally the year Zero of plug-ins in China.

In other news, we see the Leaf stepping ahead in the US and Japan, while the Outlander PHEV is back at #1 in the Netherlands.

Looking at EV shares, Norway is out of orbit (16,22%!), while in the Netherlands it's rising again (Now at 3,13%) and in Germany the EV share has finally increased significantly (0,32% in '14 vs 0,23 in '13 and 0,20% in '12). The others are stable with the only dark spot being France, with 0,57% share (But in February it was 0,47%, so recovery can be on the way).

Other Markets

New sales records in several european countries: 212 units in Switzerland, 144 in Denmark, 166 in Austria, 252 in Belgium, 428 in Sweden, all of these contribute to record EV Shares there: 0,56% in Switzerland (0,44% last year), 0,62% in Denmark (0,29%), 0,41% in Austria (0,26%), 0,37% in Belgium (0,17%) and 1,15% in Sweden (0,71%). 

There other markets progressing, Ireland is at 0,20% vs 0,08% last year, Estonia is at 0,89% vs 0,68% and Iceland has passed the 1% barrier, as it's now at 1,10% EV share.

Unfortunately there are markets where plug-ins are suffering, as it's the case of Spain, despite government incentives, the EV share is down from 0,17% to 0,09% share, while in Hong Kong the EV share is surprisingly down to 0,17%, when last year it ended with 0,39%, using the Nissan Leaf as a golden standard example, 4 Leafs were sold this year, when in the same period of last year it already had been registered eight...Are consumers saving for the upcoming arrival of Tesla?

Questions for April

1 - Where will be beaten the next sales records?

2 - Will Tesla surprise us again? Where?

3 - Will the Outlander PHEV surprise us? Where?

4 - Who will be #1 in Norway? Model S, Golf or Leaf?

5 - Will the signs of recovery continue in France?

6 - How many #1's will the BMW i3 collect?

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Japan March 2014

Mitsu I-Miev as a japanese police car
Leaf and Butterfly Edition 

With 2.421 units registered, sales were a little behind expectations, especially if we look back a year ago, when sales reached 3.466 units, the main responsible for this less than stellar performance is the Outlander PHEV, scoring just 736 registrations, if we believe in the butterfly effect, this bad result could mean that the Mitsubishi SUV will have a super-month in April, somewhere in the world (Netherlands maybe?)

Looking at the models ranking, the Nissan Leaf (1.201 units sold) is now head and shoulders in the leadership, with some 700 units above the #2, the Outlander PHEV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi (47%) is still ahead of Nissan (46%), but 1% share is nothing between these two, so it looks like the race will be to the end.

PlJapanMarch  2014     %Pl '13
1Nissan Leaf1.2014.34546    1
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV7363.66439    2
3Toyota Prius Plug-In e)2006006    3
4Mitsubishi I-Miev1304235    4
5Mitsubishi Minicab Miev1242643    5
6Mitsub. Minicab Miev Truck30631    6


e) Estimate

Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; insideevs.com

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Belgium March 2014

Springtime Records - Chapter Six

Thank you to Piet for the contribution on this EV ranking.

A new record was set in Belgium, with 252 plug-ins sold in March, increasing the EV Share to 0,37%, a great result considering there's no governmental incentives to buy EV's here.

The Tesla Model S was the winner of the month, with 81 registrations (Personal Best) and #2 in March was the surprising Nissan Leaf, scoring 49 sales, also a personal best, something that the #3 BMW i3 also did, selling 46 units.

There was a leadership change in the YTD ranking, with the Model S climbing to #1, followed by the BMW i3, relegating the former leader Panamera Plug-In to #3.

The Nissan Leaf climbed two positions to #4 and it's now putting pressure on Porsche, while last year leader, the Volvo V60 Plug-In, is in a distant #5.

Looking at the brands ranking, Tesla jumped to #1 with 25% share, followed by BMW (17%) and Porsche (13%).

1Tesla Model S81136252
2BMW i34695177
3Porsche Panamera Plug-In13731312
4Nissan Leaf4966123
5Volvo V60 Plug-In1856101
6Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV835619
7Volkswagen e-Up!1723414
8Renault Zoe71835
9Renault Twizy71734
10Smart Fortwo ED31326
11Opel Ampera1418
12Mitsubishi I-Miev
13McLaren P1110N/A
Fisker Karma
Citröen C-Zero
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Peugeot iOn
Renault Fluence ZE



Source: febiac.be; Manufacturers

Portugal March 2014

BMW i sub-brand is doing great in Portugal

Leaf is Back Edition

After more than two years(!) away from the leadership, the Nissan Leaf is back at #1 in the portuguese YTD EV ranking, after selling 13 units in March, its best monthly performance since...2011.

But the leadership came with company, as BMW also has 19 sales of its hot hatch i3, the bavarians are really pushing sales of the little car and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Bimmer came First by the end of the year.

In third came the Renault Zoe, selling 8 units, its personal best score in Portugal. By the way, in a general market up 47% year-on-year, the 29 plug-ins sold in March aren't that much of a big deal, as seen in the YTD EV Share at 0,18%, still three tenths behind last year (0,21%).

An entertaining fact is that the three top manufacturers are separated by just 2% share, with Nissan and BMW tied in #1 with 33% share and just behind we have Renault in Third with 31%, it will be an entertaining race to see between these three...

PlPortugalMarch2014%Pl '13
1Nissan Leaf1319333
2BMW i3319337
3Renault Zoe813225
4Renault Twizy4591
5Opel Ampera1238


Source: Best Selling Cars Blog

Monday, April 21, 2014

Europe March 2014 (Updated)

Something Tesla is doing something better than the rest
On the Right Track Edition

Updated with Portugal and Belgium numbers

With 9.552 units sold in March the European EV market, sales are a far departure from the 4.000 units sold last year and it's the third best month ever, but just like November (10.587) and December of last year (14.144), these are somewhat deceiving numbers, because they are influenced by the extraordinary month of one particular country, in this case, Norway. If we discard those 3.128 sales, we see more real numbers (6.424 sales), still 60% above last March, so despite all the naysayers, things are going in the right direction.

Looking at the YTD ranking, March made changes to it, the most important was the Tesla Model S climbing two spots to #2, thanks to a personal-best sales month (2.184 units, Best Seller of the Month), behind the leader Nissan Leaf, also with a personal best (1.728 sales).

But changes didn't stopped there, the VW e-Up! rose to #6 and just two units behind the #5 Volvo V60 Plug-In, while the Bolloré Blue car came out of nowhere to #11, thanks to another fleet deal.

On the flip side, March left a bittersweet taste for the BMW i3, selling a record 903 units but losing two positions to #4, behind the Outlander PHEV and Model S.

Looking at the brands ranking, Nissan is #1, with 20% share, followed by Tesla (16%) and in Third we have Mitsubishi and Renault, both with 13% share.

1Nissan Leaf1.7283.820201
2Tesla Model S2.1843.047167
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.3552.159122
4BMW i39031.9741012
5Volvo V60 Plug-In6571.62094
6Volkswagen e-Up!6711.618911
7Renault Zoe6381.23872
8Renault Kangoo ZE32577545
9Smart Fortwo ED14145729
10Renault Twizy152337210
11Bolloré Blue Car194275116
12Mitsubishi I-Miev111256114
13Toyota Prius Plug-In93236112
Opel Ampera
Citröen C-Zero
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Goupil G3
Peugeot iOn
Peugeot Partner EV
Citröen Berlingo EV


Saturday, April 19, 2014

EV Business Case Q1 2014

Norway Edition

Norway has been in the mainstream news lately for the otherworldly sales numbers of electric cars, and this is not a freak event, but something that has been consistently growing over the past few years, so i thought to look back and see how all this started.

This was always an EV-friendly country, even in the Second Age of the Electric Car, Norway always stood in the front of the electric car scene, with sales in the high three digits per year of cars like the Citröen Saxo Electrique, Peugeot 106 Electrique, REVA or the homegrown Kewet/Buddy EV.

Citröen Saxo Electrique
With the end of the Second Age, sales dropped to just 133 units in 2004 and 165 in 2005, with a slight increase in the following years (352 units in '06 and 321 in '07), but the Kewet/Buddy EV, the electric best seller at the time, looked more like a cartoon than a car, while also being slow and lacking modern car comforts.

Buddy EV
Despite that, sales started to grow, reaching 567 units in 2008, with the Buddy EV (209 sales) and Think City (183) as the major players.

Tesla Roadster
The next year one important car landed, it wasn't a best seller but the few units of the Tesla Roadster started to change people's minds and proved that electric cars could be fast, fun and something you actually wanted to own.

In 2010 sales (733 units) reached levels of the previous Second Age, showing that two of the three stakeholders (Consumers and Government) were ready for electric cars, now it was time for Car Manufacturers to step ahead and sell electric cars that appealed to consumers with a reasonable price to go along with it.

2011 was the first year of the current saga, 2.243 units were sold, reaching an EV share of 1,6% (The first time electrics cars passed the 1% barrier anywhere), with the Mitsubishi I-Miev winning the Electric Best Seller title, with 1.050 registrations and reclaiming for itself also the Best Selling City Car title, another first for a plug-in car.

Mitsubishi I-Miev
Things really took off in following year with the Nissan Leaf selling 2.298 units, pulling the market up to 4.700 units and 3,12% EV share, with regular appearances in the general Top 20 for the japanese hatch.

Nissan Leaf
2013 is (Modern) History: Sales skyrocketing and a First in September, the Tesla Model S winning the Best Selling Car title, all categories included, for the first time ever!

For 2014 the EV Share is at 16% and we seem to have reached a tipping point where electric cars have entered the minds of mainstream consumers as just another option besides gas and diesel, instead of a weird thing made for tree-huggers.