Friday, August 31, 2018

Global Top 20 - July 2018

Image result for BAIC EC3
The new BAIC EC-Series (261 kms NEDC range), aka EC3, can't come soon enough

Models: Tesla Model 3 Flood

Registrations grew 62% in July, to some 145,000 units, the fourth best month ever, so the current record (174,000 units, in December '17) is still holding on, but will it resist much longer? Do i hear a new record by September?...

The positive first half of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 906,000 units (+68% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.7% share, which makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

July was the month that Tesla opened the gates for the Model 3 deliveries, with a record 14,600 units being delivered to customers, becoming the Best Selling plug-in in the world for the second month in a row, and expect it to continue the Best Seller in the following months, at least until the currently eclipsed BAIC EC-Series, starts to deliver in volume its new, subsidy-compliant, version (the EC3). 

Bring the popcorn in Q4, as  we should see an entertaining race between these two in the race for the October/November/December titles...

Regarding the 2018 title, we can already envision what will happen, the new #2 Model 3 should jump ahead of the current leader Nissan Leaf by August/September, with the EC-Series stealing the Silver medal from the Japanese hatchback by November/December. 

As for the remaining YTD ranking, we see the #10 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climb one position, while the BMW i3, a familiar face in previous years on the Top 10, was down to #14, being surpassed by the Roewe Ei6 sedan.

Another famous face, the Chevrolet Bolt, is just #15, but is on a different dynamic, having recovered one position in July. Now all it needs is to climb five more places to repeat last year Tenth Spot…

The BAIC EX-Series is also on the rise, having jumped two positions to #18, and could leap a few more in August, as it is selling more than its direct competitors.  

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics stayed at 63% of the total market, but expect this score to be improved during the year, possibly to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla jumps to #1 in midst of deliveries flood

July saw Tesla break once again the all-time record, with over 20,000 deliveries in one month, thanks to the Model 3 deliveries flood, allowing the brand to reach the leadership, but it was more merit of the American OEM, than BYD's fault, as the Chinese maker laso broke its all-time record, to over 18,000 units. 

If Tesla is the favorite to win the 2018 manufacturers title, the race should be closer than in the models category, it will all depend if BYD can increase output at the same pace of Tesla, and deliver the new Tang, Qin and Yuan models in large numbers. 

As with Tesla, demand is there, the unknown variant is on production side...

Elsewhere, Roewe is the new Fifth Placed, having surpassed Volkswagen and Nissan in the same month. We now have three Chinese OEMs on the Top 5, and only one legacy OEM (BMW) in it. Talk about disruptive times...
On the topic of Chinese automakers, Hawtai was the Climber of the Month, thanks to a record 4,421 registrations, jumping three positions to #16, surpassing Hyunda and Kia at the same time, while Geely rejoined the Top 20, in #18, thanks to a year best performance of 5,869 units delivered. 

A final reference to Chevrolet, up one position to #9, but still far from the #5 position it got last year.

Editor note: Will be on holidays during the next days, but to keep EVS entertaining during my time off, i will leave some interesting posts in the coming weeks, like a PEV Automotive Groups ranking, the LCV ranking in Europe, among other treats...Stay tuned and keep on reading EV Sales!

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Japan July 2018

Image result for Toyota Prius PHV Japan

Toyota loses ground

In July, some 3,700 units were registered in the Japanese PEV market, down 10% YoY, while the PEV share dropped slightly, to 1.0% share, with the Prius PHEV being the main culprit for the fall, as the Toyota hatchback has its worst result in the last 15 months, by registering just 930 units, down 56% YoY.

Is the leader stealing sales to the Toyota PHEV?

The Nissan Leaf, on the other hand, saw the sales of the new generation jump 75% YoY in July, to 2,040 units, while the YTD sales are up 99%, placing the Nissan BEV on track to beat last year record of 26,734 units, set by the Toyota Prius PHEV. 

As for the third significant plug-in model in Japan, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, sales are stable this year (-1% YoY), so far unharmed by the Leaf success (Well, they appeal to different demographics, don't they?), but neverthless, the Mitsubishi SUV has known better days, as sales are down 27% regarding 2016.

Below the Big Three domestic players, the best foreigner is BMW, with just 4% share,  followed by Mercedes, with 2%.

Monday, August 27, 2018

Europe July 2018

Resultado de imagem para porsche cayenne vs jaguar i-pace vs range rover sport
These behemoths grew a plug

Nissan Leaf pushes forward in holiday season

The European passenger plug-in market slowed down a bit to enjoy the holiday season, by registering some 27,000 registrations, up 30% regarding the same period last year, pulling the Year-to-date count to some 212,000 deliveries (+41% YoY), while the 2018 market share remained stable at 2.2%, which incidentally, was the same share value registered in July.

Last month, BEVs grew faster (+40%) than PHEVs (+22%), but looking at this year sales, PHEVs still have the upper hand, with 53% of all plug-in sales.

Looking at Europe’s fuel mix, diesel continues to drop significantly, now having 38% of the total market, its lowest share since 2001, while all other fuels (including CNG, LPG…) are on the rise, profiting from the diesel-fleeing stampede, at this pace, new registrations of diesel-powered vehicles could be virtually dead by 2024-25…  

July is usually the start of the holiday season in Europe, with most models slowing down sales during the Summer months, then returning with a bang in September, but it seems the folks at Nissan haven’t got the memo, with the Nissan Leaf scoring in July its best result since March, with over 4,000 deliveries, allowing it to distance itself from its French cousin Renault Zoe.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for 2018 white Nissan Leaf#1 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s Best Selling PEV model continues to expand its sales, by registering 4,024 units in July, tripling the result of last year, and with the orders list still to be satisfied in a number of countries, expect the Leaf to continue to be the default #1 throughout the year. But back at July’s performance, the main markets were Norway (980 deliveries), France (492), Italy (389 units!) and Ireland (305 units!!! All-time record for a plug-in in this market).

Image result for 2018 white Renault Zoe #2 Renault Zoe – July’s 1,901 deliveries meant a 13% drop YoY for the French hatchback, being the second consecutive sales drop. Is the competitively priced Leaf eating into its Renault cousin sales? With the automaker promising a production increase in a couple of months, I smell a significant price cut on the Zoe soon...Anyways, regarding July’s individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 721 units (-18% YoY), with other significant numbers coming from Germany (320 units), Sweden (126, new record) and Spain     

Image result for 2018 white BMW i3#3 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales increased (+17% YoY) in July, with 1,685 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory expected to grow output towards the end of the year, thanks to the upcoming 44kWh version, do not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its quirky looking hatchback sales performance. Looking at individual countries, Germany (422 units, 314 of them being BEV) was the largest market for the i3, with Norway (284), and the UK (250) rounding the i3’s Top 3 markets.

Resultado de imagem para white 2018 VW e-Golf#4 Volkswagen e-Golf – The favorite BEV for people who want to keep EV-ownership a secret, the inconspicuous e-Golf had 1,379 registrations, with Norway being once again the backbone of the German hatchback demand, with 413 registrations, followed by Germany (311 units), The Netherlands (182 units, best result since January), and Austria (120). With Volkswagen now focusing in developing and getting to the market the production version of the ID concept car, do not expect this model to bother too much the current Best Sellers in the foreseeable future.

Resultado de imagem para white 2018 BMW 225xe#5 BMW 225xe Active Tourer – The MPV deliveries grew 55% in Europe last month, with 1,294 deliveries, becoming July’s Best-Selling PHEV, a first for the BMW model. Although impressive, this result had help from the momentary sales slump of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, due to having the first units of the revised version delivered in August. Nevertheless, it is a surprising result for the short range (+/- 30 kms / 18 mi) PHEV, especially when using the currently-not-sexy MPV body, which highlights the current lack of compact, family-friendly plug-ins in Europe, proof of this is the fact that in the current Top 20, only BMW’s Active Tourer and the Kia Niro PHEV fall in that category.

 Resultado de imagem para kia niro phev

Kia Niro PHEV Shines

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the headlining news being the VW Passat GTE returning to #6, while the Kia Niro PHEV jumped three positions to #10, thanks to a record 1,179 deliveries, allowing it to be #6 in the July ranking. With a low price (34,500€), usable range (42 kms/26 mi EPA) and practical space, the Korean Crossover could be a star on the rise in Europe.

Another change in the Top 20 was the BMW 225xe Active Tourer climbing two positions to #15, repeating what it had already did in June, allowing the German MPV to jump four positions in just two months. Who said MPVs were going out of fashion, eh? Now imagine if the BMW family-friendly model had a decent battery (Currently has 7.6 kWh, 5.8 kWh usable) and range…

While July hasn’t brought many memorable performances, outside the Top 20 there was plenty to talk about, following on the Kia Niro PHEV record performance, its Hyundai cousin, the Ioniq PHEV, registered a personal best result of 575 units, which could mean that the Hyundai-Kia Group is finally getting more battery supply from their providers. And they will surely need it, once the Kona and Niro BEVs are in full production, the Korean Group will need Gigafactories (actual unit of measurement) of batteries…

But the market focus is currently in other segments, with none other than three recent Premium SUVs hitting record performances, with the Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV, besides winning the prize for longest nameplate name, also scored a best ever result of 410 units, while its cousin Jaguar i-Pace registered 199 units, preparing itself to hit full speed by September.

But the Rookie Of The Month was the new Porsche Cayenne PHEV, that in its first full deliveries month has already hit 688 units, not only the nameplate best result ever, but has also immediately outsold its Panamera PHEV sibling. While the Sports Sedan currently holds the all-time high score for a Porsche model (824 units, set last March), it shouldn’t take long for the SUV to break that record, possibly being the first Porsche to go North of 1,000 units/month.

Now imagine how high can the future Taycan go…Better yet, imagine a BEV Macan!

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (17%) is in the lead, while the runner-up Volkswagen (13%), is watching the #3 Nissan (11%, up 1%) getting closer, with Renault (9%) stable in Fourth, ahead of Volvo and Tesla, both with 7%.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Netherlands July 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 Porsche Cayenne PHEv
A future Best Seller?

PHEVs recover in fast growing market

July had 1,362 plugin registrations, up 208% regarding the same month last year, pulling the year to date count to 10,444 units (+139%), with the 2018 steady at 3.6%, with last month reaching 3.8%.

The new generation is doing wonders for the Nissan Leaf, performing its fifth consecutive 200-something registrations month, with the VW e-Golf ending July in the runner-up place, with 182 units, while the Tesla Model S was Third, with 164 deliveries, its best first-month-of-quarter result ever, while its Model X sibling also hit a quarter first month record, with 74 units, which could mean that September might see new deliveries records for both nameplates. Do i hear 1,000 each?

Also of interest, is the fact that PHEVs had their best month (312 units) since they were hit by the end of incentives, back in December 2016, with two models shining: The efficient Hyundai Ioniq PHEV scored 64 deliveries in only its third month on the market, while the new Porsche Cayenne PHEV landed with a bang, by registering 61 units in its first full sales month, being the best start for a PHEV in over two years.

Nissan Leaf
VW e-Golf
Tesla Model S
BMW i3
Hyundai Ioniq BEV

Looking at the 2018 ranking, there were no significant changes in the top positions, as the Best Sellers took some holidays break.

Considering the positive results from Tesla in the usually weak first month of the quarter, above mentioned, the main significant change in the next couple of months on the Top 5 should be the Tesla Model X going after the Second Spot, with the 351 units separating it from the Nissan Leaf probably disappearing, in the next Tesla High Tide (September).

But on the B-League PHEV League there are some interesting developments, if the Porsche Panamera PHEV continues to be Number One, with 254 units (34 in July) and #9 in the PEV ranking, the Best Seller of the Month was for the second time in a row the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV, that finally made its oficial debut in this market thee months ago, with 64 units, jumping two positions to #12. It seems the efficient Korean hatchback could make the PHEV podium soon, with only the leader Panamera PHEV being safe from it.

Speaking of Porsche, the new Cayenne PHEV joined the Top 20, in #16, thanks to 61 registrations last month, the nameplate best performance in this market since December 2015,  with the German SUV possibly going for a podium position in the PHEV ranking by the year end. 

If that were to happen, a 1-3 podium for Porsche in the PHEV league would be a great prelude for the Taycan arrival, wouldn't it?

Elsewhere, the BMW 330e climbed two positions, to #14, thanks to 31 deliveries, its best result in 19 months, which is rather surprising, considering this could be one of the most hardly hit models by the arrival of the Tesla Model 3. Is BMW trying to make the most of the 3-Series PHEV, before Tesla's midsizer casts its long shadow over it?

Outside the Top 20, the Jaguar i-Pace is starting to gain...pace, with 23 units being delivered last month, with the British Crossover now just 6 units away from the #20, expect it to join the table next month, leaping positions from then on, until December. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (29%, down 2%) is miles ahead in the lead, with the runner-up Nissan (14%) slightly above Volkswagen (13%), while Hyundai and BMW (Both with 10% share), are waiting for an opportunity to join the podium.

Source: RAI Vereniging

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Kia Niro HEV
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Nissan Leaf
VW e-Golf

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, the domination that Toyota has in other markets is diluted here, with the Best Selling Hybrid being the Kia Niro, ahead of the Toyota C-HR and Yaris Hybrids.

Outside the podium, two BEVs show up ahead of the remaining HEVs, with the Nissan Leaf being #4 and the VW e-Golf #5.

Tesla Model S & Others

 BMW 5-Series 
     Tesla Model S  
Volvo S/V90
Mercedes E-Class
Audi A6

Despite being the first quarter of the month
the Model S held steady in Second Place, mirroring the July results, with the Californian staying only behind the BMW 5-Series, by just 15 units (179 vs 164). 

Tesla Model X & Others

Tesla Model X
Volvo XC90
Porsche Cayenne
LR Range Rover Sport172

Big SUV's were hardly hit with the end of PHEV incentives, to the profit of the American Sports-Minivan-SUV, the only one  still selling in significant volumes.

But it seems the Model X has now found competition worthy of the name, with the Porsche Cayenne outselling it (77 vs 74) last month, mostly thanks to its PHEV version, that with 61 units, it represented 79% of all Cayennes registered in July.

This allowed the German SUV to jump two positions to #3, and could even threat the Volvo XC90 in the months to come.