Saturday, August 31, 2019

Segment Leaders - July 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3

Here are the leaders in each class:


A-Segment / City cars - Chery eQ. Benefiting from the BAIC EC-Series debacle, the Chery is back on top. But the rising SAIC Baojun E-Series is less than 1.500 units behind...

B-Segment / Subcompacts - Renault Zoe. The French hatchback is going from strength to strength, leaving the BMW i3 rival far behind;

C-Segment / Compacts - BAIC EU-Series. Shock! Horror! The Nissan Leaf was cornered by a Chinese model! From BAIC!

D-Segment / Midsize - Tesla Model 3. By a landslide.

E/F-Segment / Fullsize - BMW 530e/Le. Maybe the greatest surprise of the year. BMW should thank China sales and the Model 3 (for stealing sales from the older and larger Model S);


B/C-Segment - BYD Yuan EV. The Hyundai Kona EV is on the rise, but still only has half of sales.

D-Segment - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. Now that the rival BYD Tang PHEV is licking the end-of-incentives wounds, the Japanese SUV should take the time to win the 2019 trophy;

E/F-Segment - Tesla Model X. Still king of the category, but the runner-up Audi e-Tron is stepping up the pace. An interesting race in 2020?

MPV - BMW 225xe Active Tourer. At 8.500 units, one can't really say it is a hot seller, but is enough to beat the (few) competitors, namely the Chinese.

Sports Cars - Basically, everything is the same as before. BMW i8 is the sole significant representative, at little less than 2.000 units. The 2nd placed Quiantu Q50 registered 121 units...

LCV - Renault Kangoo ZE, with over 5.000 units. Despite not being the last word on technology (it doesn't have fast-charging...), the strength of the brand is keeping it in front.

Pickup Truck - Dongfeng Rich EV. No competition whatsoever make it the king of pick-ups, with just 217 units in 2019...Expect big changes in 2020.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Global Top 20 July 2019

Resultado de imagem para Hyundai Kona EV

Models: Legacy OEMs recover, part one

Registrations grew just 3% YoY in July, to some 148.000 units, possibly the lowest growth rate in modern times, mostly due to the tightening subsidies in China, worsening the PHEV crisis (-22% YoY, worst drop since December '14), with the 18% growth rate of BEVs being unable to sustain the PEV two-digit growth rates of previous months.

As a result, the PEV share suffered in July, dropping from 3,3% in June, to just 1,9% last month, placing the 2019 PEV share at 2,3%, slightly lower than the record 2,4% it had in June. 

With most Chinese models suffering, it was time for some Legacy OEM models to shine, like the BMW 530e/Le siblings, that jumped 4 positions, to #7, or the Hyundai Kona EV, that joined the Top 10, thanks to a 3 position climb, with the Korean crossover tripling sales YoY, so it won't be surprising to see it run for #6 in a few months.

Speaking of the 6th position, the Renault Zoe climbed another spot, to #6, thanks to doubling sales, with the Zoe 1.0 ending its career in grand style, making 3 models of the Renault-Nissan Alliance in the Top 6, with the not-so-compact Nissan Leaf (-14% YoY) in 4th, the family-friendly SUV Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV in #5 and the city-friendly Renault Zoe in #6. So, the Top 3 Legacy OEM models belong to the Alliance. 

As for the podium bearers, the leader Tesla Model 3 deliveries grew 33% YoY, being the first in a long time that the Tesla midsizer hasn't posted a three-digit growth rate. Is the Model 3 maturing and on the way to reach its cruise speed?

Regarding the runner-up BAIC EU-Series, while the numbers were down to half of what it had in June, the Beijing Auto sedan still had a 187% growth rate, and with the BYD Yuan EV stuck at 6,000 units/month performances, the EU-Series seems to have the Silver medal secured.

In the second half of the table, the climbers of the month were the #14 Baojun E-Series, jumping 4 positions, making it the exception for the falling sales in China, while the evergreen VW e-Golf was up one position, to #18, thanks to 2.961 registrations (up 98% YoY), its best result since January.

Outside the Top 20, the Tesla Model S (15.531 units) is 2.000 units behind the #20 Changan Eado EV, with its deliveries down 37%, a far more negative result than its Model X sibling (-15% YTD), that despite being in #16, in July was beaten by the steady growing Audi e-Tron (2.611 units in July, 11.225 YTD), with the Audi SUV becoming the Best Selling Luxury BEV, something that the Jaguar i-Pace (10.048 units in 2019) is far from getting close, as it seems stuck in 1.5k-2k performances this year. Is Jag's SUV production constrained, or has it already reached its demand limits?

Manufacturers: Legacy OEMs recover, part two

July saw the leader Tesla deliveries rise 20% YoY, its smallest growth rate in 18 months, which could mean that the days for exponential growth is coming to an end.

The following runners had unremarkable performances, due to the incentive changes in China,. with the #8 Volkswagen and #9 Hyundai recovering ground over the #7 Geely. 

We have to go down to #10 to see the first position change, with Kia climbing to #10.

Looking elsewhere, several Legacy OEMs took the time in July to recover positions, profiting from the Chinese brands weak month: Mitsubishi jumped 3 positions to #11, Toyota was up one position, to #15, while Chevrolet also climbed one spot, to #18.

Finally, the #20 Dongfeng is starting to look at the rear view mirror, as the rising GAC, thanks to the hot Aion S sedan, should start to close in soon.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

South Africa July 2019

Imagem relacionada

Jaguar Land Rover push market up

We have a new market here, the South African market is on the fast track, jumping 223% YoY, to 201 units, admittedly a small base, but hey, growth is always good, right?

Not only is good to know that sales are growing, but also that the 2015 record, until now the best year for plugins in this market, with 235 units, is on track to be beaten soon.

Anyway, having reached a record 0.07% PEV share this year, the needle is starting to move, mostly thanks to the availability of the Jaguar-Land Rover plugins, that have shaken the market, with Land Rover removing BMW for the first time ever from the makers throne.

In the models ranking, the same is about to happen, with the Range Rover Sport PHEV just two units away from surpassing the BMW i3 in the lead.

There's really not much more to talk about, as this market only has these two makers making significant deliveries, although the Audi e-Tron could make an impact soon, once it lands.

And there's of course the dream of Tesla finally landing here, but it's best to be patient with this one...

Jan.-Jul. 2019
BMW i3
LR Range Rover Sport PHEV

Jaguar i-Pace
LR Range Rover PHEV
BMW i8

Monday, August 26, 2019

Europe July 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2020 renault zoe
Will the new Zoe, on the right, be able to double sales of the current one?

Renault Zoe wins in July, but Model 3 remains YTD leader

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 36,000 registrations in July (+32%), with the PEV market growing 34% in 2019, a great performance considering this is an off-peak month for Tesla.

In July, while PHEVs continue nosediving (-19% YoY), all-electrics almost doubled (+90%) registrations, to some 24,000 units, having been responsible for 67% of all plugin sales last month (66% YTD), with the BEV share at 1.9%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 2.8%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 2.9% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

The big news in July was that the Renault Zoe profited from the expected Tesla off-peak month, to win another monthly trophy, its 4th this year, with the French hatchback dividing with the Tesla Model 3 all the wins this year (January, April, May and July for Renault, and February, March and June for Tesla).

We could say that the Tesla Model 3 and the Renault Zoe are the big players in Europe, with the first dominating the more expensive end of the market, while the latter takes care of sweeping the lower end of it.

With the Model 3 starting to deliver the SR/SR+ versions by now and the Zoe expected to double the output with the upcoming restyling, do not expect the current status quo to change much, or at least until the VW ID.3 starts to deliver in large volumes, by Q2 2020.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe.

#1 Renault Zoe – The 3,969 deliveries of July not only allowed it to beat the Model 3 by a sizeable margin, but also to double registrations (+104% YoY), regarding last year, an amazing performance for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode, waiting for the much improved “new” Zoe. As for individual market performances, the French hatchback continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,491 units, doubling last year result), and in Germany (910 units), with Italy (220) and the UK (300) helping along to the Renault nameplate success.

Resultado de imagem para New Tesla Model 3

#2 Tesla Model 3 – After the June deliveries peak, the posterchild for electromobility had its expected chill-out month, with 3,478 deliveries, with the sports sedan still benefitting from the fact that backlog-customers in important markets are still getting their much awaited SR/SR+ units, so expect another backlog-driven peak in September. We should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020. But back at July, looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in the Netherlands (590 units), Germany (454), and Sweden (453). A final mention to the UK (400-plus units), where the Tesla nameplate is now starting to be delivered in volume.

Resultado de imagem para white nissan leaf

#3 Nissan Leaf – With the 62 kWh version starting to be delivered in volume, the Japanese model hit 2,858 units last month, its best result since March, marking the return of the Leaf to the podium for the first time since January, and…That’s it for good news. Because despite the larger battery sugar-rush, registrations were still down 19% YoY, making it the 5th consecutive month of drops. Will the Nissan BEV be able to leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, as the 62kWh version price premium (+/- 7,000 eur) is too steep to make it relevant in the long term, so in the long run, either Nissan cuts prices significantly, or the Leaf starts to become irrelevant, especially when a certain VW ID.3 lands…But back at July performances, the Japanese EV main markets were Norway (584 deliveries), France (445), and the UK (400), with Ireland peaking last month at 296 units.

Resultado de imagem para white outlander PHEV

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The stainless steel Japanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 2,487 registrations in July (up 105%!), continuing to be popular in the UK (450 units), but the #1 market is now Germany, with 795 registrations, with Sweden (327 units) replacing Norway (540) as the third big market. The success of this PHEV in the current BEV-friendly environment is remarkable, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave (possible answer: until 2021, when the Tesla Model Y and VW ID Crozz finally land). With no direct BEV competitor in the (relatively) affordable-family-friendly-workhorse landing soon, the Mitsubishi model will still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.

Resultado de imagem para white BMW i3

#5 BMW i3 – After a close race with the forever young VW e-Golf, the i3 sales were up 36% in July, to 2,354 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. But, looking at individual countries, we start to see that the Bimmer is starting to rely too much on its domestic market, Germany (967 units), with the following markets, Norway (207) and the UK (300), at a sizeable distance. A warning sign?


Resultado de imagem para jaguar i-pace vs audi e-tron
e-tron is now above the i-pace

Looking at the 2019 ranking, if the podium positions continue stable, the main news was the Nissan Leaf recovering the 4th spot, but the climber of the month was the Audi e-Tron, that jumped 3 spots, to #9, thanks to 1,756 units, its best score since March, allowing it not only to reach the Top 10, but also to become the Best Selling Luxury PEV in Europe, surpassing at the same time the BMW 530e and the Jaguar i-Pace.

And with the #8 Mini Countryman PHEV only 362 units away, it shouldn’t take long for the Big Yacht Audi to climb another step in the Top 10 ranking, that incidentally, now has 8 BEVs and only 2 PHEVs…

On the second half of the table, this time there weren’t many changes, the most relevant being the BMW 225xe A. Tourer climbing to #13, thanks to 1,045 registrations, the only four-digit performance below the #9 Audi e-Tron, but that nevertheless, represented a 17% drop YoY for the BMW nameplate.

Outside the Top 20, we should notice the consistent good performances of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 848 registrations last month, a near-record performance for the plugin E-Class, placing the nameplate in #21, just 100 units from the Top 20, so we could see the big Merc show up in the Top 20 in August.

As for the Tesla Model X, the 401 deliveries of July meant that it dropped to #22 and increased the distance to a Top 20 position to 298 units. Maybe we could see Tesla’s Sports-CUV join the ranking in September?

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (17%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (13%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand sales, while Hyundai and Mitsubishi are below the podium, with 8%.