Thursday, August 15, 2019

Germany July 2019

Resultado de imagem para VW e-Golf 2019 deutschland
Hey! Remember me? I'm still here...

VW e-Golf #1 in July

The German PEV passenger car market continues on the right track in July, having registered 9,233 units, with BEVs (+136% YoY) pushing the market up, as PHEVs keep stuttering (+6% in July, returning YTD numbers out of the red), with all-electrics two thirds of plugin registrations, while the PEV Share was 2.8% in July, with BEVs alone hitting 1.8%, keeping the 2019 plugin share at 2.6% (1.7% BEV).

After winning the monthly Best Seller award for the last time in October, the veteran VW e-Golf managed to win last month trophy, and with a record performance to boot, as the 1,007 registrations were the first time the German EV scored a four digit performance.

It seems Volkswagen's current bread and butter plugin model still has some aces up its sleeve... 

Another German model hitting record results was the BMW i3, that scored 967 registrations, allowing it to reach Silver last month, ahead of its rival Renault Zoe, that moved 910 units, which is still an impressive performance for a model getting ready to receive significant changes. With the current one clocking regular 1.000/month performances, how high will the heavily revised Zoe go? 1,500? 2,000? Ladies and gents, please place your bets...

In 5th place we have the Audi e-Tron, that scored 530 units, its best result so far, surpassing its ICE sibling Q7 (319 units) and selling at the same pace as the other Audi mammoth, SUV, the Q8 (582). 

Will the Belgian-built Audi be able to reach the pace of the current sales leader, the BMW X5 (1,210 units last month)? One can only dream... 

VW e-Golf
BMW i3
Renault Zoe 
Mit. Outlander PHEV
 Audi e-Tron

If the top positions didn't had any changes, the leadership race became a little bit clearer, with the Renault Zoe winning precious ground over the Tesla Model 3, and assuming the generation change is done without major hiccups by Renault, the French hatchback is now favorite to renew the 2018 Models title, while the #3 BMW i3 still has a (remote) chance to aspire for the leadership.

Outside the podium we have the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with enough advantage over the ones behind it to start thinking about finding place in the trophy room for the Best Selling PHEV and SUV statues.

The #8 Audi e-Tron is just 6 units behind the #7 Smart Fortwo EV, and with the current mommentum, it wouldn't be surprising to see the German CUV reach #6 in a few months.

In the full-size category, the race is on between the #11 Mercedes E300e/de twins and the #10 BMW 530e, with the Merc reducing the Bimmer advantage to just 221 units, and this despite the BMW nameplate a new record performance (432 units), to what the rival responded with the second best result ever (464 units) for a plugin E-Class.

Interestingly, the performance from the 530e was just one in four(!) record results made by German nameplates (the others were the BMW i3, VW e-Golf and Audi e-Tron) last month. The Empire Strikes Back?

In the lower positions of the ranking, the Jaguar i-Pace (finally!) reached the Top 20, with the British Sports-CUV becoming the 13th BEV in the ranking, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV climbed one position, to #16.

Outside the ranking, we should highlight the Tesla Model X performance, that delivered 78 units last month, its best first-month-of-quarter performance in a year, allowing it to reduce the distance to the Top 20 to just 134 units, while the Mercedes EQC is still in launch mode, having registered 74 units last month.

In the brands ranking, BMW (20%, up 1%) is the leader, with Tesla (12%, down 1%) running for the 2nd spot, with the #3 Renault (11%, down 1%).

Outside the podium, we have Mitsubishi (9%) recovering ground to the medalists, while Volkswagen and Hyundai, both with 7% share, are still far away from the medal positions.


  1. The success of the fairly expensive and somewhat underwhelming e-tron, compared both to other BEVs and to combustion competitors, is quite impressive... I guess advertising really works?

    (I also saw Zoe some advertisements for the first time not long ago.)

  2. And with this YTD sales performance, the Volkswagen group dislodges Tesla from the last place of the podium.
    YTD sales by automotive groups:
    1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance with 12873 sales
    2nd BMW group with 11378 sales
    3rd Volkswagen group with 6925 sales

  3. Interesting... by end of 2018 / beginning 2019 the Kia Niro EV was hyped and pushedpby many press articles. Now it is far away from Top20. Though plenty of orders were placed beginning 2019, Kia Germany seems to boycott the car completely. And to put of the trustful customers. Big mistake in a big car market.

    1. I doubt it has anything to do with Kia Germany. Not long ago, there was news that Kia has severely cut European allocations for the rest of the year. Production is limited, and apparently they have more urgent need to fulfil mandates in other markets...

    2. Yeah. You may be right. But registrations in Netherlands passed 2k last month. Also well performance in France and Sweden. So there ist deliveries to Europe. Except the biggest car market... Including ICE ;-)

  4. Given that most of the top sellers are produced at full capacity and sold out for months, Germany's great July performance is probably mostly due to this being the slowest month in Norway and thus deliveries were prioritised for Germany for e.g. e-Golf, I3, e-tron.
    I guess it will only be in 2020 with less supply constraints that these monthly numbers reflect actual demand

    Tesla obviously being the lone exception

    1. That's an interesting theory.

      I doubt though that 2020 will have less supply constraints. With tough emission rules as well as rising consumer demand, and legacy makers generally continuing to drag their feet, I don't think supply constraints will be resolved for years to come...

      (Also, Tesla claims to still be supply-constrained as well -- even if naysayers are convinced otherwise...)

    2. I guess there will still be supply constraints in 2020, but i also think Legacy OEMs are trying to buy more battery capacity for next year, as they intend to avoid the EU-related fines.

      I bet VW and PSA in particular will be battery constrained in 2020, because i believe demand will largely outstrip supply, while on the other side, Renault, Nissan and Tesla will probably have no battery supply issues, but for different reasons, Renault is expected to increase significantly the output, Nissan might have a demand problem, while Tesla demand in the H2 2020 should be focused on the Model Y, not the Model 3.

    3. I think Tesla might actually end up severely battery constrained by late 2020... It looks like they put a moratorium on further capacity expansions with current technology: instead betting on new lines based on Maxwell technology. (Possibly without Panasonic's involvement -- though I'm not sure about that part...)

      Currently installed Panasonic capacity, along with some supply from other makers, should likely suffice for Model 3 -- but I don't see how they could achieve significant Model Y production without new capacity. So if the new lines get delayed -- which is quite likely with new technology -- they might end up with a severe bottleneck...

  5. Still no break out performances. When will someone sell 2000 units per month?

    1. My guess will be the revised Zoe, late this year. The Model 3 also has a shot at it in September, too.

      One thing is certain, true disruption will come in the form of the VW ID.3, i hope VW has enough production output to satisfy demand, in Germany and elsewhere.

    2. The ID 3 if priced right should reach around 5000 units per month. The normal golf is around 10-20k units a month.

      Everything below means the ID3 is still too expensive or supply contrained.

    3. Agree. Anything less, and VW is trying hard enough.

    4. …"and VW is NOT trying hard enough".

      Damn typos.