Monday, August 26, 2019

Europe July 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2020 renault zoe
Will the new Zoe, on the right, be able to double sales of the current one?

Renault Zoe wins in July, but Model 3 remains YTD leader

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 36,000 registrations in July (+32%), with the PEV market growing 34% in 2019, a great performance considering this is an off-peak month for Tesla.

In July, while PHEVs continue nosediving (-19% YoY), all-electrics almost doubled (+90%) registrations, to some 24,000 units, having been responsible for 67% of all plugin sales last month (66% YTD), with the BEV share at 1.9%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 2.8%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 2.9% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

The big news in July was that the Renault Zoe profited from the expected Tesla off-peak month, to win another monthly trophy, its 4th this year, with the French hatchback dividing with the Tesla Model 3 all the wins this year (January, April, May and July for Renault, and February, March and June for Tesla).

We could say that the Tesla Model 3 and the Renault Zoe are the big players in Europe, with the first dominating the more expensive end of the market, while the latter takes care of sweeping the lower end of it.

With the Model 3 starting to deliver the SR/SR+ versions by now and the Zoe expected to double the output with the upcoming restyling, do not expect the current status quo to change much, or at least until the VW ID.3 starts to deliver in large volumes, by Q2 2020.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe.

#1 Renault Zoe – The 3,969 deliveries of July not only allowed it to beat the Model 3 by a sizeable margin, but also to double registrations (+104% YoY), regarding last year, an amazing performance for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode, waiting for the much improved “new” Zoe. As for individual market performances, the French hatchback continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,491 units, doubling last year result), and in Germany (910 units), with Italy (220) and the UK (300) helping along to the Renault nameplate success.

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#2 Tesla Model 3 – After the June deliveries peak, the posterchild for electromobility had its expected chill-out month, with 3,478 deliveries, with the sports sedan still benefitting from the fact that backlog-customers in important markets are still getting their much awaited SR/SR+ units, so expect another backlog-driven peak in September. We should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020. But back at July, looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in the Netherlands (590 units), Germany (454), and Sweden (453). A final mention to the UK (400-plus units), where the Tesla nameplate is now starting to be delivered in volume.

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#3 Nissan Leaf – With the 62 kWh version starting to be delivered in volume, the Japanese model hit 2,858 units last month, its best result since March, marking the return of the Leaf to the podium for the first time since January, and…That’s it for good news. Because despite the larger battery sugar-rush, registrations were still down 19% YoY, making it the 5th consecutive month of drops. Will the Nissan BEV be able to leave this downward spiral? I have some doubts, as the 62kWh version price premium (+/- 7,000 eur) is too steep to make it relevant in the long term, so in the long run, either Nissan cuts prices significantly, or the Leaf starts to become irrelevant, especially when a certain VW ID.3 lands…But back at July performances, the Japanese EV main markets were Norway (584 deliveries), France (445), and the UK (400), with Ireland peaking last month at 296 units.

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#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The stainless steel Japanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 2,487 registrations in July (up 105%!), continuing to be popular in the UK (450 units), but the #1 market is now Germany, with 795 registrations, with Sweden (327 units) replacing Norway (540) as the third big market. The success of this PHEV in the current BEV-friendly environment is remarkable, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave (possible answer: until 2021, when the Tesla Model Y and VW ID Crozz finally land). With no direct BEV competitor in the (relatively) affordable-family-friendly-workhorse landing soon, the Mitsubishi model will still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.

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#5 BMW i3 – After a close race with the forever young VW e-Golf, the i3 sales were up 36% in July, to 2,354 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. But, looking at individual countries, we start to see that the Bimmer is starting to rely too much on its domestic market, Germany (967 units), with the following markets, Norway (207) and the UK (300), at a sizeable distance. A warning sign?


Resultado de imagem para jaguar i-pace vs audi e-tron
e-tron is now above the i-pace

Looking at the 2019 ranking, if the podium positions continue stable, the main news was the Nissan Leaf recovering the 4th spot, but the climber of the month was the Audi e-Tron, that jumped 3 spots, to #9, thanks to 1,756 units, its best score since March, allowing it not only to reach the Top 10, but also to become the Best Selling Luxury PEV in Europe, surpassing at the same time the BMW 530e and the Jaguar i-Pace.

And with the #8 Mini Countryman PHEV only 362 units away, it shouldn’t take long for the Big Yacht Audi to climb another step in the Top 10 ranking, that incidentally, now has 8 BEVs and only 2 PHEVs…

On the second half of the table, this time there weren’t many changes, the most relevant being the BMW 225xe A. Tourer climbing to #13, thanks to 1,045 registrations, the only four-digit performance below the #9 Audi e-Tron, but that nevertheless, represented a 17% drop YoY for the BMW nameplate.

Outside the Top 20, we should notice the consistent good performances of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 848 registrations last month, a near-record performance for the plugin E-Class, placing the nameplate in #21, just 100 units from the Top 20, so we could see the big Merc show up in the Top 20 in August.

As for the Tesla Model X, the 401 deliveries of July meant that it dropped to #22 and increased the distance to a Top 20 position to 298 units. Maybe we could see Tesla’s Sports-CUV join the ranking in September?

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (17%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (13%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand sales, while Hyundai and Mitsubishi are below the podium, with 8%.


  1. About the UK, from where did you sourced that delivery amount number for the Tesla model 3?
    As far as known, there isn't yet any official numbers published and here people were crying foul that after the June show down that Tesla run, no one was in fact getting any cars delivered, despite the very optimistic (misleading?) predicted delivery times announced on the site, couple that with the issue some people were expecting to get due to the approach of the holidays leave and after that the 19-reg plates.
    Keep up with the good work but just hoping this here ain't just one more source of unverified data really.

  2. "We should only know the organic demand of the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020."

    I don't think we'll see the organic demand in 2019, with SR/SR+ delivery backlog only easing in the September peak, and then the final phaseout of Tesla's EV tax credit in the US will probably be a focus for the final quarter of 2019.

  3. Jose,

    The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV will not be in third position at the end of 2019.

    The Nissan Leaf will be in third position at the end of 2019.

    They will switch their position in Q4 2019.


    1. While this is certainly a possibility, I wouldn't take it for granted at all. The Leaf is seeing a bit of a reprieve with the 62 kWh variant finally available, but I'm not sure this will last. It's not setting a new standard in price/specs, while competition is only getting stronger...

  4. Going by VW's recent statements, the ID.3 won't be delivered in volume before Q3 2020.