Thursday, August 29, 2019

Global Top 20 July 2019

Resultado de imagem para Hyundai Kona EV

Models: Legacy OEMs recover, part one

Registrations grew just 3% YoY in July, to some 148.000 units, possibly the lowest growth rate in modern times, mostly due to the tightening subsidies in China, worsening the PHEV crisis (-22% YoY, worst drop since December '14), with the 18% growth rate of BEVs being unable to sustain the PEV two-digit growth rates of previous months.

As a result, the PEV share suffered in July, dropping from 3,3% in June, to just 1,9% last month, placing the 2019 PEV share at 2,3%, slightly lower than the record 2,4% it had in June. 

With most Chinese models suffering, it was time for some Legacy OEM models to shine, like the BMW 530e/Le siblings, that jumped 4 positions, to #7, or the Hyundai Kona EV, that joined the Top 10, thanks to a 3 position climb, with the Korean crossover tripling sales YoY, so it won't be surprising to see it run for #6 in a few months.

Speaking of the 6th position, the Renault Zoe climbed another spot, to #6, thanks to doubling sales, with the Zoe 1.0 ending its career in grand style, making 3 models of the Renault-Nissan Alliance in the Top 6, with the not-so-compact Nissan Leaf (-14% YoY) in 4th, the family-friendly SUV Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV in #5 and the city-friendly Renault Zoe in #6. So, the Top 3 Legacy OEM models belong to the Alliance. 

As for the podium bearers, the leader Tesla Model 3 deliveries grew 33% YoY, being the first in a long time that the Tesla midsizer hasn't posted a three-digit growth rate. Is the Model 3 maturing and on the way to reach its cruise speed?

Regarding the runner-up BAIC EU-Series, while the numbers were down to half of what it had in June, the Beijing Auto sedan still had a 187% growth rate, and with the BYD Yuan EV stuck at 6,000 units/month performances, the EU-Series seems to have the Silver medal secured.

In the second half of the table, the climbers of the month were the #14 Baojun E-Series, jumping 4 positions, making it the exception for the falling sales in China, while the evergreen VW e-Golf was up one position, to #18, thanks to 2.961 registrations (up 98% YoY), its best result since January.

Outside the Top 20, the Tesla Model S (15.531 units) is 2.000 units behind the #20 Changan Eado EV, with its deliveries down 37%, a far more negative result than its Model X sibling (-15% YTD), that despite being in #16, in July was beaten by the steady growing Audi e-Tron (2.611 units in July, 11.225 YTD), with the Audi SUV becoming the Best Selling Luxury BEV, something that the Jaguar i-Pace (10.048 units in 2019) is far from getting close, as it seems stuck in 1.5k-2k performances this year. Is Jag's SUV production constrained, or has it already reached its demand limits?

Manufacturers: Legacy OEMs recover, part two

July saw the leader Tesla deliveries rise 20% YoY, its smallest growth rate in 18 months, which could mean that the days for exponential growth is coming to an end.

The following runners had unremarkable performances, due to the incentive changes in China,. with the #8 Volkswagen and #9 Hyundai recovering ground over the #7 Geely. 

We have to go down to #10 to see the first position change, with Kia climbing to #10.

Looking elsewhere, several Legacy OEMs took the time in July to recover positions, profiting from the Chinese brands weak month: Mitsubishi jumped 3 positions to #11, Toyota was up one position, to #15, while Chevrolet also climbed one spot, to #18.

Finally, the #20 Dongfeng is starting to look at the rear view mirror, as the rising GAC, thanks to the hot Aion S sedan, should start to close in soon.


  1. Just 3 phev in top 20?
    What's the PHEV/BEV share this month?

  2. Despite a drastic subsidy cut in China and partial cut to Tesla in USA, July managed 148144 units and this great.
    Now chinese automakers will learn to reduce weight and features, increase range and reduce price and start selling in higher # soon.

    Thanks to Teslas higher output again.
    If BMW has higher sales over Nissan, then something is really wrong with the way Leaf is made and sold.

  3. The latest numbers of buses in China are from 2017
    do you probably have numbers (buses) from 2018
    Thank you !

    1. Thanks for reminding me of that one, will check and in the coming weeks will publish something about it.

  4. During the next couple of months growth rates will be disappointing, because on the one hand Chinese PEV producers will be adjusting to the new environment regarding subsidies and on the other in the US it will be difficult to beat the first months after Model 3 production rump-up, when Tesla was covering pent-up demand. All growth will be coming from Europe.

    The silver lining will be that in a slower growth environment producers will be able to push suppliers (including battery suppliers) to lower prices. In the medium turn the forced diet imposed by the subsidies cuts in China and the phasing out of tax credits for Tesla and GM in the US will render the PEV industry more competitive.

  5. what lineup make toyota?besides prius

    1. Corolla PHEV & Levin PHEV. Both China-only models.

  6. Interesting points relating to Tesla Model-3
    Passed Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV in sales. With this, all the top-3 belongs to BEVs.
    Passed Model-S in sales.
    Will soon cross 300,000 cumulative sales mark.
    May cross the 400,000 cumulative sales mark.

  7. Model-S with a 600 km (370 mile) range and $80K price tag and AWD standard is still a good buy. Since the new price is recently announced, hope the sales will pickup in coming months.

    Buick Velite-6 which is sold in BEV & PHEV variants in China is selling poorly. Only 1,418 units sold between 2019-03 - 2019-06.
    Seems GM is selling it as compliance car only to be closed sooner.
    It has very nice design with spacious interiors.

    Chevy Malibu-Hybrid is discontinued for MY-2020 just like Volt. All this is GMs lack of commitment to electrification.

    1. If GM doesn't bet heavily in electrification, then it will no longer be a big player in China.

      After leaving Europe, GM will lose another major market. Not a good sign.

    2. I'm not sure GM has a lack of commitment now -- it's just suffering now from a lack of commitment in the past, resulting in a painful "hole" in their EV lineup, until their new lineup based on the BEV3 platform starts materialising...

  8. Looks like the market is starting to become saturated. EVs need urgent innovative input to increase market share. They must become less expensive for the mass market. The segment for luxury cars is not in reach for many people.

    1. I guess in 2020 things will change, at least in Europe.

    2. I don't see any saturation. China is obviously down because of the incentive changes -- but the rest of the world isn't doing that bad really. Most top models are steady or even up year-over-year, even while more and more new attractive models get introduced. Outside China, I think growth this year will be similar to previous ones -- and even larger in the coming years, with the number of new models increasing severalfold...

      Talking about "luxury cars" is nonsense, considering that on total cost of ownership, the current EV best-sellers are already competitive with mainstream best-sellers.

  9. I don't think Tesla's exponential growth is ending any time soon... It's just chunky, as it always has been.

  10. The fact that that Model X is holding up better than Model S provides evidence that Tesla is suffering more from in-house competition (Model 3 vs. Model S) than from competition from other makers (Model X vs. e-tron and I-Pace). Can't say I'm surprised...