Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Netherlands July 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla model 3 netherlands
"Mmmm...Nice car!" - thought the man on the right

Tesla Model 3 #3 in the overall market.

The Dutch PEV market grew 73% in July, with 2,372 plugin registrations, which translated in a PEV Share of 7%, placing the year to date PEV share now at 8.6%, well above the 6% of 2019.

Things could have been better if PHEVs hadn't dropped 21% YoY, with BEVs alone jumping 102%...If we only consider BEVs, the EV share last month was 6.2%, with the 2019 share being 7.4%. 

In July, the leader Tesla Model 3 (590 units) had its best first-month-of-quarter so far, so prospects for beating the all-time BEV record from a single model (2,621 units last December), currently in the hands of the Jaguar i-Pace, look good. Can't wait to know the September results…  

But back at July, if the 2nd place of the Hyundai Kona EV is not surprising (insert battery constraint comment), the 3rd spot of the VW e-Golf is, and the German hatchback did it with 231 units, its best result since January, a meritable result for a model in sunset-mode, which leaves great prospects for the upcoming ID.3 (if VW manages these level of sales with a  veteran and overpriced model, imagine how high will they reach with a competitive EV...) 

A bit surprisingly, the Nissan Leaf, despite the injection of the 62 kWh version units, failed to reach the Top 5, ending the month in Sixth, just behind the niche (and ageless) BMW i3. 

Checking the Japanese hatchback registrations in detail, most of them continue to be of the 40 kWh version, so either volume deliveries of the 62 kWh version are still to come, or the longer range version is not the success Nissan had hoped for.

Looking ahead, the future of the Nissan EV looks somewhat bleak, squeezed from above (Tesla Model 3), and below (revised Renault Zoe, Peugeot 208 EV, Opel Corsa EV), the arrival of the VW ID.3 should hit it full frontal, and only deep discounting could keep sales coming in, for a model that by then will be pretty long in the tooth. Now, if Nissan wants to follow that path, is a whole different subject...

Tesla Model 3
Hyundai Kona EV
VW e-Golf
Kia Niro EV
BMW i3

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Tesla Model 3 sits high above everyone else, with almost triple the sales of the #2 Hyundai Kona EV, in fact, the Tesla midsizer is now the 3rd best selling model, all models counted

If the  overall leader VW Polo (7,974 units) seems hard to reach for now, the #2 Ford Focus (7,359) is not that far away, and considering Tesla's sports sedan is expected to have a stronger second half of the year, the runner-up spot could still fall into the Model 3 lap.

There wasn't much to talk about in the top positions, in fact, we have to go down to #16, to see position changes, with the Volvo XC90 PHEV climbing one position, while the Mini Countryman PHEV did the same, in #18.

Highlighting Tesla's good moment, the Model S returned to the Top 20, in…#20, thanks to 21 deliveries last month, its best first-month-of-quarter this year, while its Model X sibling also had a positive month, with 18 deliveries, also a first-month-of-quarter year best, with the Sports-Minivan-CUV now only 24 units away from the Top 20, so if the recovering sales continue, we could see it back at the Top 20 soon. Maybe in September?

With the Model S now in the Top 20, we have 13 BEVs vs 7 PHEVs in the Top 20, and with the all-electric field said to increase in the coming months (Tesla Model X, Kia Soul EV, Mercedes EQC...), i think we are close to a non-returning point, where plugin hybrids will be residual in this Top 20.

Oh, and because i love factoids, here's another one that i picked up: The i-Pace is the best selling Jaguar in Dutch lands... 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (32%) is the clear leader, followed by Hyundai (15%), while the race for the last podium place is hot, with Kia (9%) running ahead of Volkswagen and Nissan (both with 8%).

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Tesla Model 3
BMW 3-Series
Volvo S/V60
Mercedes C-Class
Audi A4

Comparing the Model 3 deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, there's really no doubt on who is Top Dog, with the Tesla nameplate doubling sales of the #2 BMW 3-Series.

Will the revised BMW 330e, said to start selling soon, help the Bimmer to shorten the distances regarding the Model 3?

Maybe, but...I have my doubts. 

For comparison sake, the PHEV version of the Volvo S/V60 twins represents less than 10% of sales (9%, to be precise), so even if the 330e reaches a 10% share of the total 3-Series sales, the increase will barely be visible in what is a large gulf between both nameplates.

Regarding the Tesla Model S & X, their behavior is far less impressive, as both are below their category Top 5, although the Model S is recovering ground, now in #6, only 31 units behind the #5 Porsche Panamera.

Interestingly, electrification gallops in different rhythms in the full-size vehicle segments, while in the car category, only one model in the Top 5 has more than 20% of its sales coming from plugins (#5 Porsche Panamera, 73% of sales come from the PHEV versions), in the SUV category, only one model (BMW X5, 0%) has less than 45% plugin sales, with most of the Bimmer sales previsibly transferring to the PHEV version, once it becomes available. And we even have a BEV in the SUV Top 5: the Audi e-Tron is the 2nd Best Selling full-size SUV in the Netherlands.


  1. The e-tron being the only luxury BEV selling well, is no doubt still the effect of the demand pull-forward caused by the tax change at the end of 2018: the e-tron is the only one not affected, since it wasn't available yet before the change...

    The difference in PHEV share between luxury SUVs and sedans however is curious indeed...

  2. Not too shabby Hyundai, 2688 sales with a new model, the Kona EV. With the evolving of the year, the Nissan Leaf has been slowly dropping positions in the sales chart even if this time last year it had just 1470 sales (2nd spot). But in the case of both Tesla Models S and X it is even worse, the Model S went from top spot to last (20th place), while the Model X moved from the 4th spot (1119 sales) to outside the top20.
    While there should be good reasons for Nissan feeling worried now with the Leaf sales career (10 year old chassis, battery without active cooling, no HPC capability), Tesla shouldn't feel relieved or any better too.
    If we learn from Toyota past fortunes, being overtaken and dropping positions on sales are clear signs of bad decisions.

    1. I'm sure the Kona could sell even more, if Hyundai produced enough of them... But there's the catch: it is successful because of the attractive price -- but that price also means it's not profitable, so Hyundai isn't in much of a hurry to increase production.

      Regarding Model S/X (and I-Pace), that's mostly just a fully expected effect of a significant incentive cut for expensive BEVs in 2019. Sales of these models were significantly elevated in 2018, and evaporated in 2019, since everyone interested in these made sure to buy before the change...

  3. Good to see top five bev