Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Global Top 20 - March 2019

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Models: Tesla Model 3 Tsunami (Global edition)

Registrations grew 53%  YoY in March, to over 224.000 units, pulling the year to date count to half a million (+58% YoY), with Chinese plugins representing 50% of all deliveries, with March PEV share hitting 2,8%, allowing the 2019 number to cross North of the 2% mark. 

BEVs grew faster than the plugin average, at +77% YoY, allowing them to gain share (+4%) over PHEVs, with all-electrics scoring 74% of the market last month. 

If the headlining news in March was the record-breaking performance of the Tesla Model 3 (over 33.000 units!), allowing the Tesla midsizer to already double the deliveries of the runner-up BYD Yuan EV, below it, we see a number of interesting moves:

- The BAIC EU-Series scored a record performance, with over 13.000 deliveries, allowing it to jump 7 spots, to 4th, with the sedan now being the maker bread and butter model;

- Another Chinese sedan jumping positions is the BYD e5, up 4 spots to #6, while two BMW hit record numbers, with the i3 hot hatch registering 4.038 units last month (who said the Model 3 would eat the BMW i3 lunch?...) and climbing one place to #11, while the 530e sedan scored 4.564 units, jumping 5 positions to #15;

- The Hyundai Kona continues to climb the ranking, now at #12, and should rise even further as the year (and battery supply) develops;

Elsewhere, the evergreen Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV scored its best result since 2015, with 5.725 registrations, an admirable success story for the Japanese brand, especially considering the current headwinds that PHEVs are experiencing. 

Finally, a mention to two re-entries, after a horrible start of the year, the Toyota Prius PHEV returned to the company of the Best Sellers, while the recent Great Wall Ora R1 EV also joined the Top 20, at #18, thanks to a record 4.002 units, and with its larger sibling Ora iQ5 EV crossover at #21, both Ora nameplates are set to become regular Top 20 faces.

Manufacturers: Tesla edges closer to BYD

March saw Tesla come closer to the leader BYD, thanks to a near-record 38.000 deliveries, but BYD was also in warp speed (29.000 units),  so we should see an entertaining Q2 '19 race between these two plugin giants. 

Leaving the fast and furious league, to see th
e race for the 3rd spot, SAIC is still ahead of the competition, but saw them getting closer, particularly BAIC, that after a horror-movie start of the year, is back with a vengeance, jumping 7 spots to 4th, willing to steal the Bronze medal from its Shanghai rival.

Looking elsewhere, two manufacturers had record performances, with Great Wall jumping to #10, thanks to 7.141 units, mostly thanks to its Ora EV sub-brand, as the WEY plugins haven't really set the market on fire…

Kia had also a record 5.247 units, with both Niro's (BEV and PHEV) pulling the Korean ship upwards.

At the bottom of the ranking, Renault climbed one spot, to #14, with the Chinese JAC and Hawtai also climbing positions, to #15 and #17, respectively.

Sunday, April 28, 2019

Europe March 2019

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Ready, set, go!

Tesla Model 3 Tsunami (Europe Edition)

The European passenger plug-in market registered a record 60,000 registrations in March, growing 38% regarding the same period last year, a good performance considering the stagnating mainstream market (-4% YoY), and the fact that March ’18 had too been a record month, with 43,378 units.

In March, all-electrics jumped 67% YoY, to a record 40,920 deliveries, having been responsible for 69% of all plugin sales last month, with the EV share growing to a record 2.4%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share jumps to 3.5%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to a record 3.1%, already above the 2.5% result of 2018.

The big news in March top positions was of course the Tesla Model 3 tsunami/avalanche, with  a record 15,771 units, but unlike what is happening in the USA, the blackhole effect of the Tesla Model 3 is not absorbing sales from other BEVs, but from directly competing PHEVs and ICE models.

Proof of this is the fact that with the exception of the Nissan Leaf, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers in March ended the month with positive numbers, which is good news, as it is better to have a Tesla tide lifting all boats, than only their own…

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Tesla Model 3 – After years of impatient waiting, the poster-child for electromobility has finally crossed the Atlantic in large volumes, and we experienced a sort of Model 3 fever, with the Tesla sedan flooding the streets of Europe. The 15,771 deliveries of March meant that a new monthly record by a single model was set, but I wouldn’t say it is historic, because I guess once the SR/SR+ versions land, we will see another deliveries record. But back at March, where several markets were flooded with Model 3’s, with the Tesla midsize sedan being delivered by the thousands in Norway (5,315), Germany (2,224 units), Netherlands (2,195), France (1,153), Switzerland (1,094) and Sweden (1,005). 
Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe.

#2 Renault Zoe – The 4,361 deliveries in March signaled a symbolic growth for the French hatchback, with deliveries up only 1% YoY, as the much improved “new” Zoe (50-60 kWh battery, driving aids, lower price…), and the upcoming Peugeot 208 EV, are starting to dampen sales of the current generation. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,536 units), and there also were positive numbers in Germany (1,136 units, new record),and Norway (344), and the UK (400). 

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#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Indifferent to the current doom and gloom of plugin hybrids, and being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, the Japanese SUV had 4,314 registrations in March (up 63%), the SUV best performance since December ’17, with the Mitsubishi model continuing to be popular in Scandinavia (642 units in Sweden, 810 in Norway), but also in Germany (693 units, new record), while in the UK, numbers got close to 1,000 deliveries. This case study of a PHEV succeeding in a BEV-friendly environment, has to do with its unique mix of utility, space, decent electric range (including Chademo fast-charging) and affordability. On the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV model counter strike, although, with no direct BEV competitor in the short term, the Mitsubishi model could still rack up sales this year, without major worries.
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#4 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s 2018 Best Seller was 4th in March, with 3,917 units, down 28% YoY, but fear not, as the new 62 kWh version should start deliveries soon, allowing the Japanese hatchback to resume the growth path. In March, the main markets were Norway (618 deliveries), France (455), and the UK, where the Nissan EV surpassed the 1,000 units.
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#5 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales were up 58% in March, to a record 3,632 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from the age-old formula “bigger battery = bigger sales”, and apparently not feeling the sting of the Model 3 arrival. Looking at individual countries, Germany, Norway and the UK were the main markets in March each with some 700 registrations, while The Netherlands (258 units), France (207) and Poland (219!), also helped greatly the BMW nameplate. Looking into 2019, apparently this Star Wars-inspired EV still has some growth potential in it, so it should continue to be a regular face in this Top 5.

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Looking at the 2019 ranking, the main news was the Tesla Model 3 jumping six spots into the leadership, and considering the advance it already has, Tesla should start to prepare the Best Seller party, at the end of the year…

Elsewhere, there wasn’t much to talk about in the first half of the table, except maybe the fact that the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, by far the best-selling plugin hybrid in the ranking, is getting closer to the Bronze medal of the Nissan Leaf. The 62 kWh version is needed sooner than later, if Nissan wants to keep its podium place.     

On the second half of the table things are more interesting, the Kia Niro EV was up two positions, to #11, thanks to a record 1,636 deliveries, while two other recent additions also shined, with the Jaguar i-Pace jumping 3 spots to #12, while the Audi e-Tron did even better, jumping 4 positions, to #16, thanks to a personal best of 1,791 deliveries.

Underlining the good moment of Hyundai-Kia and Jaguar-Land Rover in the PEV arena, the first had the Kia Niro PHEV hitting a four-digit result (1,084 units, best score in 12 months), while the second had the Range Rover Sport PHEV reaching a record score of 1,004 units. Considering the dismal results that Jaguar-Land Rover are having in the mainstream market, I guess the path for survival is clear for the British Group: Go electric, or go broke.

In #20, we see the Tesla Model S returning to the ranking, a welcome addition, that makes 12 BEVs in the Top 20. And the Tesla Model X is in #22…

Outside the Top 20, we should notice the good start of the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV, that with 887 registrations last month, it was the nameplate best score in over 2 years. A Top 20 spot is getting closer every day, for the Swedish station wagon.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, we have a new leader, with Tesla (18%, up 10%) now sitting at the iron throne, while last year winner BMW (12%, down 1%) is now 2nd, followed by Nissan and Renault, both with 9% share and running for the 3rd spot, while Hyundai and Mitsubishi are not far behind, with 8%.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

China March 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 china nameplate

BAIC EU-Series reaches 13,000 units (& the Tesla Model 3 scores 5,000 deliveries)

March saw the Chinese plugin market surpass 110,000 units, up 86% YoY, while the mainstream market was down 7% last month, allowing the March PEV share to reach 5.8%, and pulling the PEV market share to 5.1%, frankly above the 2018 result (4.2%).

With all this continued growth, we could see sales double this year, surpassing the 2 million mark, making some 60% of all global PEV sales in 2019.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, while foreign OEMs are starting to tackle the current seismic changes, dragged into electrification by the new PEV quotas, with foreign brands total share now having 8% of the market.

Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Volkswagen, 2% to Tesla, while the remaining manufacturers share the remaining 3%.

In March, the headlining news were the BAIC EU-Series hitting #1, with 13,000 units, while the Tesla Model 3 reached the Top 5, with some 5,300 deliveries.

Here’s March Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

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#1 – BAIC EU-Series: After the record 12,561 units of December, allowing it to be that month Best Seller, BAIC’s electric sedan is back on top, with a record 12,983 units being delivered last month, beating its BYD e5 nemesis. The revised design and improved specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) allows it to remain a popular choice and resist the BYD Blitzkrieg (the EC-Series can’t say the same…), so the sedan seems to be Beijing Auto’s main bet for 2019.

 BYD Yuan EV535, BYD new NEV model, China automotive news

#2 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a new 58 kWh version now being delivered, the small Crossover hit a near-record 10,021 deliveries in March. The maker Star Player is living up to expectations, eating everybody’s lunch, on the way. With a 30,000-long waiting list, demand is no problem, depending more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang is more profitable…), than anything else. With unrivalled specs (58 kWh battery, 410 kms/255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), this is shaping up to be this year strongest candidate for the Best Seller title.

 BYD e5

#3 – BYD e5: BYD’s bread and butter electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered 8,083 units in March, the oak tree of the BYD lineup has competitive specs (61 kWh, 405 kms / 253 mi range NEDC, 218 hp), considering the price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600). With a new, attractive design (finally!), the nameplate is set to continue its brilliant work as the lesser known team member of an All-Stars-rich Shenzhen Warriors Team...

 Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 china nameplate

#4 – Tesla Model 3: The much-anticipated landing of the midsize sedan in China happened with a bang, having delivered some 5,300 units, the best score ever for a foreign model in China, allowing it to reach the 4th spot in March, a first for any foreign model in this market. At this point, the Tesla nameplate is far from the domination held in North America or Europe, but it seems to be the only foreigner being able to run at the same pace of the local Best Sellers. It’s like LeBron James, undisputed king in the Eastern Conference, but when on the Western Conference…It’s a different ball game.

 Resultado de imagem para 2019 BYD Tang PHEV

#5 – BYD Tang PHEV: The second-generation Tang continues to sell like hot cakes, registering 4,763 registrations in March. Sales should continue strong for BYD’s successful flagship, although the just landed Tang BEV should prevent it from hitting new sales records. As for the current Tang PHEV specs, BYD’s Midsize SUV saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things have stayed the same, but with 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs, one can’t really say it was underpowered.... All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816. 

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Great Wall Ora R1 EV

2019 ranking

The market is dynamic as ever, with plenty of models scoring record results, like the BAIC EU-Series registering a record 12,983 units, allowing it to jump to the 2nd spot, while both Great Wall Ora’s continue their seemingly unstoppable rise, with the singular #13 Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV crossover scoring 3,029 units, while the Smart small R1 EV is now #9, thanks to a record 4,002 deliveries.

Another interesting feature is that we now have two foreign nameplates in the Top 20, with the Tesla Model 3 landing directly in #16, while the VW Passat GTE is now #17, thanks to a record 2,731 units.

The Nio ES8 dropped from the Top 20, to #21, but it is still the best-selling full-size nameplate in the PEV ranking.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (24%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the success of the Yuan and Tang (and the #4 e5, and the #12 Qin, and the #18 Song…it’s a true BYD fest), while below it, while SAIC (8%, down 4%) holds on to the 2nd Spot, ahead of BAIC (7%, up 2%), that re-joined the podium, dropping Geely (6%, down 2%) to 4th, while Great Wall (5%) is rising from obscurity to a relevant spot (#5).

Monday, April 22, 2019

Italy March 2019

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Mini Countryman PHEV surprising #1 

The Italian PEV market is finally on the move, with sales growing 34% YoY in March (0,6% PEV share), to 1.082 units, while the 2019 share is at 0,4%, still an admittedly low value, but growing, nevertheless. 

With a new package of incentives finally in motion, will plug-ins finally pick up the fast lane and cross the 1% threshold?

Looking at the best selling models, the Mini Countryman PHEV is the surprise leader, with the British SUV selling at the same pace of the all-conquering Tesla Model 3.

Will the Mini resist the advances of the all-electric sedan? In a normal market, the answer would be a resounding "No", but the Italian plugin market is known for its quirks, so we might see an interesting race between these nameplates.

The only 2018 medalist still on the podium is the #3 Nissan Leaf, with 177 units, but it is being chased by the BMW 225xe A. Tourer, just 6 units behind, while the Range Rover Sport follows, in 5th, with 150 registrations, ahead of a large pack of full-size SUVs (#9 Volvo XC90 PHEV, #12 Audi e-Tron, #14 Tesla Model X, #20 Range Rover PHEV) in this Top 20

In a Jaguar-Land Rover friendly-market, the Jaguar i-Pace also shows up, in #11, having scored in March its best month (29 units) of the last 8 months.

Another quirk of this market is the popularity of the Smart nameplates, with the Fortwo in #6, while the Forfour is #14, with the latter performing a record score (25 sales) last month. The Van-with-Windows Nissan e-Evalia  is also a surprising presence, in #12, while Italy seems to have missed the current Korean invasion, with the best placed Hyundai-Kia model (Kia Niro PHEV) showing up only in #16.  

Tesla (17%) is leading the makers ranking by a thread (383 units vs 381), running neck-to-neck with Mini (17%), while BMW is 3rd, with 13% share, ahead of Nissan (10%).