Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Interview to EV Universe (2nd part added)


A great interview by Jaan, of EV Universe, someone passionate for EVs and with a keen eye on the latest developments, i believe we should follow his work in the future, i know i will!

Part One here

Part Two here 

The end of EV Sales

"Hello, my name is Jose Pontes and i'm a what you can call a car geek, with a particular interest in the green side of the auto landscape." - It was with these words that i introduced myself on the first post, back in late 2012, explaining why i had created this blog and promising to post reports on the 25(!) markets i was already covering by then. 

Back in those days, the EV Revolution was far less certain than it is now, and PHEV sales were ahead of BEVs, but on the 2013 Preview post, i was mentioning several important additions, like the Renault Zoe, BMW i3, VW e-Up and a certain Tesla Model S...

For me it was interesting to see what i wrote then about these models, saying things like the Zoe had everything to become the Best Selling EV in Europe (so far, it has 3 Best Seller trophies - 2016, '17 and '20), questioning if the BMW i3 high price wouldn't prevent it to become a Best Seller (it's highest standings in Europe were a #2 spot, in 2017, and one #3 in 2018, while the much cheaper Zoe has always been on Europe's podium since 2013...).

Of course, not everything i wrote was prescient, after all, despite saying that the Tesla Model S was going to be the poster car for the EV Revolution, i had doubts that it would top the charts...Which it did, winning the Global Best Seller status in 2015, and earning 3 more podium positions (#3 in 2014, and #2 in 2016 & '17).

Funny enough, in August 2013, i made an update to that post, reporting that Volkswagen was sabotaging their own electric efforts. Remember, this was still pre-dieselgate Volkswagen Group, when it was still on the wrong side of the Revolution... 
And volumes were far smaller than now, in the final 2012 Global ranking, i was celebrating that fact that sales had doubled regarding 2011, to...124.000 units. Right now, China or Europe alone beat that number in a single month...That's how far we have become.

EV Sales continued to grow at 50%-plus fates in the following years, but by 2015, plugins were still seen by the mainstream media and most of the Legacy OEMs as "something for the future", that indefinite thing that can be 5 or 25 years time...

Until Dieselgate hit. 

After the presentation of the Tesla Model S, this was the second accelerator moment of the EV Revolution, as it forced one of the biggest Global Legacy OEMs to make a sudden change of direction and bet on whatever EV projects they had at the time, looking back, that near death experience is what allowed them now to be one step ahead of the remaining Legacy competition, after all, of the Top 3 Legacy OEMs (VW, Toyota, Renault-Nissan), the VW Group is the only one on the plugin Top 5 (either PEV or just BEV), as the Japanese maker continues a laggard, and the Alliance is constantly losing charge since Carlos Ghosn left the company.

Another accelerator was the presentation, and subsequent reservation fever, of the Tesla Model 3, back in 2016, for the first time, an EV was playing head to head with the best ICE Best Sellers, not only in specs, but also in price, something that still today most BEVs lose out to their ICE counterparts.

In 2017, the Plugin market hit its first million units in one year, and growth rates continued at 50%-plus rates, so we would have the global market fully electrified by 2030...

But then, subsidy changes in China, by mid-2019, have sent Chinese EV Sales down a cliff, and because at that time, they represented 66%(!) of the global BEV sales, global sales suffered, leading to a full year of constant drops, with the Covid pandemic, that had revealed itself in late 2019, helping along, in the first months of 2020. 

And after a recovering Q3 2020, Global EV Sales went into overdrive last October, with 3-digit growth rates ever since, shortening the expected full electrification horizon to 2027/28...

We have not only surpassed the "Will EVs win?" question, but we are now also surpassing the "How fast?" question (answer: Before 2030), from now on, the electrification process is more or less predictable, being a true arms race between all the OEMs (Legacy, Chinese, Startups, etc) for supremacy/survival, and with electrification now becoming mainstream, last year, 10% of all new passenger cars globally had some form of electrification system, i believe the mission of this blog (document and promote the EV Revolution) is coming to an end.

As such, it is with some sadness that i am announcing that i will stop posting new articles on the EV Sales blog

Besides personal reasons, namely lack of time, EV Sales started out because there was little available data on plugin sales, but now there are several media outlets that play that role, so one can say that the blog has already fulfilled its role, now that others are doing what EV Sales has done over the last 9 years, its time for the EV Sales blog to enjoy its retirement, in a tropical island by the sea, while drinking a Marguerita.

For those that on top of the EV Sales data, enjoy my writing and would like to continue following my analyses, digressions and rants, i will continue writing on CleanTechnica, as i had in the past, and nothing will be changed there.

To all the readers that have formed this EV Sales community over the years, and to those in particular that have helped the blog to florish, be it through suggestions or new data, i want to leave my sincere gratitude here, this wild ride wouldn't have been possible without your help.

Goodbye and good luck y'all!

Netherlands May 2021


Skoda Enyaq superstar in hot market (24% share!)

The Dutch PEV market continues on the fast lane, with 5,986 plugin registrations, placing last month PEV Share at 24% (13% BEV), pulling the year to date PEV share to 18% (7.9% BEV), which is still down on last year result (25%), but already above with the 2019 score (15%), and expect this year result to continue growing throughout the year, as term of comparison, in May 2020, the YTD share was at 12%, which could mean that if witness another strong end of year peak, we could see the plugin share end North of 30%...Not bad, eh?

Breaking down registrations between each plugin powertrain, BEVs continue to recover ground, having 56% of April's registrations, the first time this year that pure electrics outsold plugin hybrids, and YTD they are now responsible for 44% of plugin sales, expect pure electrics to continue recovering ground throughout the year, although, with BEVs gradually losing their fiscal incentives year after year, plugin hybrids are recovering their space in the market, highlighting just how sensitive to incentives the plugin market still is.

In May, the leader was the recently arrived Skoda Enyaq, scoring its first win in only its second month on the market, with 848 units, with another surprise showing up in the runner-up spot, as the Ford Mustang Mach-E joined the table in its first full month on the market, with 400 registrations, with the last position of the podium going for the popular Volvo XC40 PHEV, with 392 registrations, the Swede's best score in a year.

But the Mustang wasn't the only Ford having a great month, because just outside the podium, the Ford Kuga PHEV reached the 5th place thanks to 339 units, its second peroformance in a row(!), while the VW ID.4 was 6th, with 219 units, and the BEV version of the XC40 was 7th, with 200 units.

Interestingly, and a sign of where the market is heading, all Top 9 Best Sellers are either crossovers or SUVs, with the best positioned "car" (Peugeot 208 EV) only showing up in #10.

On the second half of the table, we have a few surprises, like the #13 spot of the Lynk & Co 01 PHEV, with Geely's post-modern brand already showing up in the table in only its second month on the market, which could mean that the Chinese brand could become a regular face here, while the Citroen C4 EV won its first table presence, thanks to a record 66 deliveries, ending the month in #20.

Interestingly, Stellantis was the OEM with the higher number of models in May's Top 20, with 5 representatives, coming from 4 different brands, without many headlining articles or PR stunts, the French-Italian-German-American conglomerate is slowly making its way into the top positions...

Outside the Top 20, May saw the Porsche Taycan score 60 units, its best score in 9 months, while Tesla delivered 61 Model 3's, with the Californian brand preparing the assault to June's Best Seller trophy

Looking at the 2021 ranking, if the leader Volvo XC40 PHEV (still) remains untouchable, below it there is much to talk about, with the Skoda Enyaq benefiting from a strong May to jump 12 spots, into the 2nd place, with the Czech station-wagon-desguised-as-SUV now being the most serious candidate to replace the Volvo XC40 PHEV from the Best Seller status, while the #4 Ford Kuga PHEV and #3 Kia Niro EV are separated by just 28 units, so we might see a position change here soon.

The Renault Captur PHEV was up two spots, to #8, thus making 9 Crossovers/SUVs in the top positions. 

On the second half of the table, a mention to the Ford Mustang Mach-E joining the table in #12, so Ford's EV seems destined to higher grounds (Top 5?), while the BMW iX3 was also up, having climbed to #15.

Another BEV joining the table was the #18 Peugeot 208 EV, although in this case, it was at the expense of its French arch rival, the Renault Zoe...     

And highlighting Peugeot's good moment, the 2008 EV crossover is now #21, just 12 units behind the #20 BMW X3 PHEV, so expect another Lion on the table soon...

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo (16%) is the Number One brand, with BMW (13%, down 1%) in the runner-up position, while a rising Ford (7%, up 3%) removed Volkswagen (6%) from the podium, the also rising Skoda (6%, up 3%) is also looking to beat the German maker.

As for OEMs, balance is the word, with the VW Group (19%, up 3%) surpassing Geely-Volvo (18%) in May, while the BMW Group (14%) is not far away.

Outside the podium, we have Stellantis (11%) surpassing the Renault-Nissan Alliance (10%).

Wednesday, June 9, 2021

France May 2021

 Zoe #1 in May, Model 3 #1 YTD

The French plugin market continues on the fast lane, with May's plugin share reaching 17% last month (8.2% BEV), pulling the YTD share to a record 15% (7.1% BEV), which is a good 4% increase over the 2020 result (11%), with the 20% share i predicted for the whole year looks well on target. 

Interestingly, most of the growth is coming from PHEVs, with plugin hybrids representing 53% of registrations in May, 1% above this year average and a significant jump over the 40% they had in 2020. Maybe it's time to cut subsidies on plugin hybrids?

For the first time this year, in May the Renault Zoe managed to win its domestic Best Seller trophy, thanks to 2,577 units, a new year best, so it looks the French maker has (finally) recovered from the late 2020 registration fever, and is back at its usual self, so expect the Zoe to collect a few more trophies during the next months...

...But not in June, because that one seems destined for the Tesla Model 3, that pulled out a surprising 2,111 registrations score last month, with the sports sedan now set to score a new personal best next month (5,000 units? 6,000?), thus beating the expected 3,000-3,500 June score of the Renault Zoe. 

These are bad news for the Peugeot 208 EV, 4th in May, with 1,199 units, because not only the Top 2 are in good shape, but also because its stablemate Peugeot 3008 PHEV (#3, 1,712 units), thanks to its recent facelift, the crossover is running in high voltage, scoring another near-record score, it means the small Pug should only have a chance at a podium seat in July, time when the Model 3 takes its usual vacances month off.

On the first half of the table, the biggest surprise is the appearance of SAIC's MG eHS PHEV in #7, with 590 deliveries, shattering its previous record, and making an impressive result for the Sino-British SUV, being also the highest standing ever for a SAIC model in France.

Another surprise on the first half of the table is the instant success of the #8 Hyundai Tucson PHEV, that scored 578 units right in its landing month, so expect the popular Korean SUV to continue riding the wave of success, maybe even scoring a few Top 5 positions soon. 

Elsewhere, a mention to the record score of the #19 Audi Q3 PHEV, with 359 units, while its less aspirational relative Volkswagen Tiguan PHEV was #20, with 338 units.

Below the Top 20, a mention to the 331 deliveries of the popular Ford Kuga PHEV, while the Skoda Enyaq had 234 units in only its second month on the market, and keeping with the VW Group compact SUV/Crossover topic, the new Cupra Terminator Formentor PHEV had a record 253 units score last month, so the sporty crossover could be another candidate for a Top 20 presence.

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the Peugeot 208 EV had a steep crash from the leadership, with the Tesla Model 3 (new #1), Peugeot 3008 PHEV (#2) and Renault Zoe (#3) all surpassing the Peugeot EV, in fact this is the first time this year that the Zoe is ahead of its arch rival...

But not all are roses in the Renault team, as the Renault Twingo (only 490 units last month) lost significant ground to its Stellantis rival, with the French EV hanging by a thread (or 13 of them, to be more accurate) to the 6th position, with the Fiat 500e looking set to climb one position next month and beat the local hero in the City car category.

The second half of the table had a number of changes, namely the Volvo XC40 PHEV climbing one position, to #12, which was the same number of positions that the Mini Cooper EV climbed, now in #15.

On the last positions of the table, the Renault Megane PHEV jumped two spots, to #18, while the Ford Kuga PHEV joines the table in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Peugeot (18%) and Renault (15%) are stable in the top positions, while Tesla (8% share, up 1%) closes the podium, ahead of the rising Mercedes (7%, up 1%) and Volkswagen (6%).

As for OEMs, Stellantis is the major force, with a commanding 30% share, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance far behind, with only 16%, while the best foreign OEM is the Volkswagen Group, with 13% share (up 2%), well ahead of Tesla, BMW Group and Daimler.

It is impressive that Tesla, with only one model, can sell as much as both German Premium OEMs, that have lengthy plugin lineups, isn't it?