Friday, June 28, 2019

Global Top 20 - May 2019

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Models: BAIC EU-Series joins the podium

Registrations grew just 12% YoY in May, mostly due to the sudden cooling of the Chinese market (only +2% YoY) to some 180.000 units, pulling the year to date count to over 841.000 (+52% YoY), with the May PEV share hitting 2,3%, above the 2019 result (2,1%). 

The market slowdown can be mostly attributed to the stagnation of PHEVs, as BEVs grew faster than the plugin average (+22% YoY vs 12%), allowing them to outsell plugin hybrids, with all-electrics having 73% of the plugin market last month. 

This month the big news is the rise to the podium of the BAIC EU-Series, with the Chinese sedan reaching the 3rd spot, surpassing the Nissan Leaf.

The Renault Zoe climbed one spot, to #8, while the #7 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered ground regarding the BYD Tang PHEV, and with both plugin hybrids now only separated by 239 units, the race is on for the Best Selling PHEV title.

But the climbers of the month were the #10 Roewe Ei5 EV, jumping 4 positions, thanks to a record 5488 registrations, and the #11 BMW 530e/Le, that with 4.950 units last month (a new personal best), was up 3 positions. The German model ows a lot of its recent success to the Chinese market, in fact, 58% of all its deliveries in May happened in China

The last positions of the ranking had a lot of interesting developments, if the rise of the Great Wall Ora R1 to #15 and the JAC iEV-Series to #16, aren't that surprising, the two positions jump of the Toyota Prius PHEV to #18, with 3.156 units last month (new year best) should raise some eyebrows, that were announcing the doom of the Japanese OEM.

Finally, a mention to the VW Passat GTE PHEV, that thanks to its Chinese version, it joined the Top 20, in #19, thanks to 3,311 units, with the midsize model possibly becoming the Best Selling Volkswagen in a couple of months.+

Manufacturers: Tesla and BYD play in a different league

May saw Tesla and BYD run at neck-breaking pace, with both almost doubling the deliveries of the #3 SAIC. 

For now, BYD is running ahead, with close to a 8.000 units lead, but that shouldn't be enough to keep it in #1 in June, as Tesla is expected to have another deliveries peak in June, replacing the Chinese brand in the podium.

Then in July, BYD should rebound and Tesla loose share, possibly allowing the leadership to change again. 

Bring on the popcorn, as the race between these two should continue to be interesting throughout the coming months...  

Looking elsewhere, the first half of the table had tittle to talk about, with only BAIC providing some interest, as it is closing in to the #5 Nissan.

The second half is more interesting, with JAC jumping 2 positions, to #11, and the #18 Changan and the #19 Chevrolet(!) also climbing positions.

But the Climber of the Month was the #13 Toyota, that surged 4 positions, thanks to 5.974 units, the brand best result in two years.

It seems the news that Toyota was in trouble were grossly exagerated…

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Europe May 2019

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A new face in the Top 20?

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reaches the podium

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 37,000 registrations in May, growing 28% regarding the same period last year, a good performance considering the stagnating performance (+0.04%) of the overall market.

In May, all-electrics had some 24,000 deliveries, having been responsible for 63% of all plugin sales last month, with the BEV share at 1.6%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share jumps to 2.6%, placing the 2019 PEV share at 2.9% (1.9% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

Looking at other fuels, diesel sales continue its never-ending slide, with its share dropping from 36% to the current 32%.

The big news in May was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reaching the runner-up spot, for the first time since January.

Interestingly, despite the landing of the Tesla Model 3, all the remaining Top 5 Best Sellers had 30%-plus growth rates, which is good news, as unlike the USA, the Model 3 isn’t drying sales from other EVs, but helping them to thrive.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe. 

#1 Renault Zoe – The 4,106 deliveries of May signaled a 62% growth rate for the French hatchback, an impressive performance, considering the much improved “new” Zoe and the upcoming Peugeot 208 EV (and Opel Corsa EV, etc), are just a few months away. As for market individual performances, the Zoe continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (1,331 units, up 23% YoY), and there also were positive numbers in Germany (875 units), and Italy (448 units, new record), in this last market Renault is benefitting from the new incentives to reach new heights, beating its personal best performance for the second time in a row.

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#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The Japanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 3,286 registrations in May (up 121%!), continuing to be popular in the UK (700 units), but interestingly, the main market for the Outlander is now Germany, with a record 957 registrations, with other markets also racking large number of units (Sweden – 365; Norway – 310; France – 223). This is a case study of a PHEV succeeding in a BEV-friendly environment, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave, although, with no direct BEV competitor in the short term, the Mitsubishi model could still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.

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#3 Tesla Model 3 – After a deliveries peak in March, the posterchild for electromobility has dropped to more normal performances, with Tesla delivering 2,849 units of its sports sedan, while it prepares itself for another high tide in June. Looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in Norway (705 units), Germany (317), Netherlands (419) and Sweden (198).

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#4 BMW i3 – The German hot hatch sales were up 56% in May, to 2,718 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue progressing its sales, following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (878 units), Norway (344) and the UK (310) were the main markets. Looking into 2019, expect the Star Wars-inspired EV to continue growing fast, so it should continue to be a regular face in this Top 5.

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#5 Volkswagen e-Golf – Volkswagen’s electric Golf managed to reach the 5th spot in May, with 1,993 units, up 34% YoY, an amazing performance, considering the Wolfsburg Mother Ship has entered in full-ID-mode, advertising the new BEV family like if it didn’t had already one successful model in the market. But then again, I guess VW knows the ID.3 appeals to a different kind of public (more extrovert), regarding the current e-Golf audience, that prefers to go EV unnoticed. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the German maker decided to keep both the e-Golf and the ID.3 sharing the VW dealerships for a while…But back at the e-Golf performance in May, the main markets were Norway (779 deliveries), Germany (310), and the UK (290).

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Looking at the 2019 ranking, the main news was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV surpassing the Nissan Leaf and reaching the 3rd spot, returning to the podium for the first time since February, with the Japanese SUV being the only plugin hybrid in the Top 7 positions.

As for the Nissan hatchback, it really needs a shot of the 62 kWh version registrations, to stop losing further spots, as the #5 BMW i3 is closing in fast.

Speaking of BMW, there was only one other change in the Top 10, to the benefit of the BMW Group model Mini Countryman PHEV, that climbed one position, to #8.

On the second half of the table, things remained relatively stable, with the Audi e-Tron slowly continuing to climb positions, with the German SUV now in #14, while the #11 Jaguar i-Pace, after surpassing the Kia Niro EV, is now looking to surpass the #10 BMW 530e, just 263 units away.

The #17 Smart Fortwo EV scored 980 units, its best result in the last 16 months, a promising result for the rumored 30 kWh battery update later this year.

In #18, we now have the Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV, a model almost the size of its name, that managed to surpass the Volvo XC90 PHEV, with the British SUV now becoming this year’s new Best-Selling plugin hybrid Yacht. 

Below this ranking, we should notice the good performance of the new Mercedes E300e/de twins, with 833 registrations last month, a new record for the plugin E-Class, placing the nameplate just 200 units from the Top 20, but another full-size plugin car is closer to join the Top 20, with the Tesla Model S being just 104 units behind the #20 Volvo V60 PHEV.

With the Tesla tide expected to have a peak in June, the Model S should join the Top 20 next month, and even the Model X (642 units in May, 2,481 YTD) might have a shot at reaching #20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (15%, down 1%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%, up 1%) is a recovering runner-up, but with June’s Tesla deliveries peak, expect the California-based maker to jump ahead again.

Renault (10%, up 1%) is in the 3rd spot, with Hyundai and Mitsubishi not far behind, with 8%.

Monday, June 24, 2019

Colombia May 2019

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Gaining momentum in Colombia

Record month in hot market

EVs in Colombia are picking up charge, with a record 148 units sold last month, with the 440 units of this year just a few units away from beating the 2018 record, so we could see a new yearly record...In June.

Regarding the PEV Share, the 2019 result is now at 0.5%, so Colombia will likely be the first Latin American market to reach 1% share, confirming itself as the most promising plugin market south of the US border.

Looking at the Year Best Sellers, there weren't major changes regarding 2018, with last year winner BMW i3 in the leadership, followed by three times winner (2015, '16 & '17) Renault Twizy, with the last place of the podium belonging to the surprising Mercedes GLC350e, that found a second life in markets outside Europe, namely here.

BMW i3
Renault Twizy
Mercedes GLC350e
Renault Zoe

Mini Countryman PHEV