Thursday, June 13, 2019

Norway May 2019

Resultado de imagem para Model 3 norway

Audi e-Tron and Jaguar i-Pace shine

Last month, BEVs registrations were up 60% YoY, in a stagnating market (-1%), with every other fuel source dropping, which lead to a significant BEV (36%) share, a big departure from the 22% of May '18. 

In this context, the current 56% PEV share in 2019 should grow to over 65% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 75%. 

And things could even had been better, if PHEV sales weren't going through a deep (sky) diving moment, with their sales dropping 45% YoY in May, representing just 11% of the overall market...

Looking at the remaining fuels mix, diesel seems to have bottomed out, at 17% share, the same score as May '18, while petrol just keeps on dropping, scoring just 18% share (26% a year ago).

So, in May, regular ICE engined vehicles had little more than one third of the Norwegian automotive market. How long will it take others to reach this level of disruption?

Looking at last month Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 remained in chill mode last month, delivering just 705 units, while it waits for the June deliveries peak, allowing the VW e-Golf to the monthly Best Seller for the second time in a row, with 779 registrations, an impressive performance for a model that is watching its sunset in less than a year.

But it was below these two that things got interesting, with the Audi e-Tron reaching a podium seat, with 530 deliveries, while the #4 Jaguar i-Pace is developing a following here, having scored 510 sales, its best result to date in Norway.

Looking at the 2019 ranking, the big news were again the Audi e-Tron and Jaguar i-Pace, with the first jumping two positions, to #7, while the second reached #6, and with the #5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV not that far away, we could even see these two climb another step in the ranking. 

Elsewhere, Volvo saw its new V60 PHEV jump two spots, to #15, thanks to 203 registrations, the nameplate best result since 2017, so it seems despite the Model 3 and Volvo's own XC60, there is still a sizeable market for a plugin station wagon...Who would have thought? (sarcasm off)

Finally, we have a new face in #19, with the Mini Countryman PHEV joining the ranking (for how long?), thanks to a record score of 117 registrations in May.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (26%, down 1%), being followed by the previous leaders Volkswagen (13%, up 1%) and BMW (10%, down 1%), while the #4  Hyundai (also with 10%) is running closer and closer to the German maker.

If the 2019 title seems already attributed, i guess in 2020 Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, but for that it needs the ID.3 hatchback production ramp up to go smoothly.

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

This month there was some good news and some bad news, first the bad:

- For the first time in a long, long time, there was an unplugged hybrid (Toyota RAV4) outselling the best selling plugins;

- A regular ICE model (Skoda Octavia) managed to reach the Top 10, a first in 2019.

Now the good:

-  The impressive score from the RAV4 is explained by pent up demand of the new generation, so i doubt the Japanese crossover will repeat this score soon;

- Skoda will launch the Superb PHEV soon, which could displace demand from the Octavia to its pluggable sibling;

- There were still 6 BEVs in the Top 10, earning the majority of seats, with HEVs only winning two seats (#1 RAV4 and #8 Yaris), with the remaining places being distributed by ICE (#7 Octavia) and PHEVs (#10 Outlander), in what was the PHEV worst performance in years. A sign of the times?


  1. AnonymousJune 13, 2019

    Norway, for a long time in this particular, has been an eclectic market and a foretaste of things to come. There are conventional ICE, hybrids, electric drives and even fuel cell drives. What we can see and this market demonstrates it, is that there will always be a place for them all. Some drum to exhaustion the diesel death, but in fact, the endangered species is the conventional gasoline ICE that faces headwinds from all sides: electric drives, hybrid drives and plug-in hybrid drives. We currently have a demonstration sample of this.
    On the sales rankings, Norway also shines for showing that there are a place for several EVs and PHEVs models, unlike some markets where it is all or nothing. From a fanboy point of view, this might come as a dull market, but in fact it demonstrates that being a so-called 'crap' competitor doesn`t prevent it from a sales success, or fanboys are wrong, mistaken? Yes they are. That`s why sunseting models like the e-Golf and Leaf still sell at great numbers, so-called inefficient vehicles like the I-Pace, e-tron and Model X sell the amount they sell and so on! People, embrace diversity!

    1. "There are conventional ICE, hybrids, electric drives and even fuel cell drives. What we can see and this market demonstrates it, is that there will always be a place for them all.."

      How does this market demonstrate that?
      BEV share has continued to increase, PHEV has tanked (will that trend continue?), petrol/gasoline is steadily declining, and diesel was stagnant for the month YoY (but is there any reason it will hold steady from now on)?

      This is all in a market where demand outstrips supply, and there are a slew of cheaper EVs on the horizon. With a rapidly developing market and a proposed ban on the sale of ICE, it's foolhardy to say there will always be a place for them all.

    2. Anonymous writes like one of the thousands of overpayed lobbyists of the criminal German automobile industry: ICE and Diesel for ever!!?

    3. AnonymousJune 14, 2019

      If there is sales for ICE, PHEV, hybrids and Fuel Cell cars, along loads of EVs, some of them giving long waiting lists to their future owners, then the market shows all of those types of vehicles are selected to be purchased. Which parts of this evidence you are unable to understand? I drive an EV, but still have another 2 ICE cars at home, no plan to ditch any.

    4. The fact that 100% of buyers aren't doing the switch overnight isn't evidence of anything, except that people are slow to adapt... (Even ignoring the fact that there simply aren't enough EVs available for all buyers right now.) The trajectory in Norway shows that combustion cars (diesel and gasoline alike) will be gone pretty much completely rather soon.

      As for hydrogen cars... While there are a handful in Norway, their ratio to BEVs is probably even worse than in most other markets. And if there was any doubt about it, that hydrogen station going 'splody this week (and all others in the country shutting down as a consequence), is likely quite literally a death blow.

  2. Do we have any recent price changes for skoda & rav4?

  3. I think the correct term is "self-charging hybrid" :)

  4. I'm interested to hear about ICE car dealerships closing or downsizing. Surely, at some point it will become uneconomical for all to remain viable. Does anyone have links/information on this?

    1. Most dealerships sell both combustion cars and EVs, with the latter simply taking an increasing share over time.

      Of course that's a problem for brands that don't have any serious EV offerings yet... There was some recent news for example about the biggest Mercedes importer in Norway being in deep shit right now.

  5. What happens to Model S, which is at the low end of the rank and sinking ever deeper? In all time ranking it is still on the top. What has changed here in a few months?

    1. The change it's called "Tesla Model 3".

    2. @ Heinrich

      Total annual global sales of Tesla is increasing every year. And each year Tesla takes a bigger share of the total annual global car market. You must already have heard that Tesla has started deliveries of the Tesla Model 3 in Europe as from Q1 2019. That means that the people in Europe have the option to buy the less expensive Tesla Model 3 (instead of the more expensive Tesla Model S or the Tesla Model X).

      At a lower price point, more people are able and willing to buy a certain product. And as a result of that, less people will buy the more expensive product.

      It's really not that difficult to understand this.