Friday, June 28, 2019

Global Top 20 - May 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2019 BJEV EU-Series

Models: BAIC EU-Series joins the podium

Registrations grew just 12% YoY in May, mostly due to the sudden cooling of the Chinese market (only +2% YoY) to some 180.000 units, pulling the year to date count to over 841.000 (+52% YoY), with the May PEV share hitting 2,3%, above the 2019 result (2,1%). 

The market slowdown can be mostly attributed to the stagnation of PHEVs, as BEVs grew faster than the plugin average (+22% YoY vs 12%), allowing them to outsell plugin hybrids, with all-electrics having 73% of the plugin market last month. 

This month the big news is the rise to the podium of the BAIC EU-Series, with the Chinese sedan reaching the 3rd spot, surpassing the Nissan Leaf.

The Renault Zoe climbed one spot, to #8, while the #7 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered ground regarding the BYD Tang PHEV, and with both plugin hybrids now only separated by 239 units, the race is on for the Best Selling PHEV title.

But the climbers of the month were the #10 Roewe Ei5 EV, jumping 4 positions, thanks to a record 5488 registrations, and the #11 BMW 530e/Le, that with 4.950 units last month (a new personal best), was up 3 positions. The German model ows a lot of its recent success to the Chinese market, in fact, 58% of all its deliveries in May happened in China

The last positions of the ranking had a lot of interesting developments, if the rise of the Great Wall Ora R1 to #15 and the JAC iEV-Series to #16, aren't that surprising, the two positions jump of the Toyota Prius PHEV to #18, with 3.156 units last month (new year best) should raise some eyebrows, that were announcing the doom of the Japanese OEM.

Finally, a mention to the VW Passat GTE PHEV, that thanks to its Chinese version, it joined the Top 20, in #19, thanks to 3,311 units, with the midsize model possibly becoming the Best Selling Volkswagen in a couple of months.+





Manufacturers: Tesla and BYD play in a different league

May saw Tesla and BYD run at neck-breaking pace, with both almost doubling the deliveries of the #3 SAIC. 

For now, BYD is running ahead, with close to a 8.000 units lead, but that shouldn't be enough to keep it in #1 in June, as Tesla is expected to have another deliveries peak in June, replacing the Chinese brand in the podium.

Then in July, BYD should rebound and Tesla loose share, possibly allowing the leadership to change again. 

Bring on the popcorn, as the race between these two should continue to be interesting throughout the coming months...  

Looking elsewhere, the first half of the table had tittle to talk about, with only BAIC providing some interest, as it is closing in to the #5 Nissan.

The second half is more interesting, with JAC jumping 2 positions, to #11, and the #18 Changan and the #19 Chevrolet(!) also climbing positions.

But the Climber of the Month was the #13 Toyota, that surged 4 positions, thanks to 5.974 units, the brand best result in two years.

It seems the news that Toyota was in trouble were grossly exagerated…



34 comments:

  1. Very disappointing month. And the rest of the year does not look great either, with a reduction in incentives in China and a further step down of tax incentives for Tesla in the USA. Only Europe is looking better.

    My only hopes for the year are that the Chinese government will take some support measures (probably more in the form of sticks rather than carrots) and/or that the softening of demands will force battery manufacturers to reduce prices.

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    1. While I'm also apprehensive of Chinese sales in the second half of the year, I don't think the step-down in US subsidies for Tesla will result in a very large pull-forward / slump this time around: this step-down is smaller to begin with; since Tesla reduced prices several times shortly after the last step-down, people are now longer convinced it's actually a good deal to rush to order before the step-down; most people who have been interested in Tesla for a long time, already got in before the first step-down -- so this time around it's mostly relevant only for people who got interested in the past couple of months; and last but not least, the sales push before the step-down was much softer this time around...

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  2. NathanaelJune 28, 2019

    Do you think you can show an "BEV only" brand ranking? I think it matters.

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    1. Agreed. While for the model ranking it can be argued that we can simply ignore the models we are not interested in, for the brands ranking (and totals) this doesn't work, since many brands do both BEVs and PHEVs...

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    2. Thanks, much appreciated :-)

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  3. The decisive question regarding BYD, is how well they will be able to keep the pace, with the drastic subsidy cuts in effect now...

    One thing I didn't quite realise before, is that for the first half of this year, the Chinese EV makers were running on double subsidies: there were still very high subsidies applied at purchase, but *also* the low emission credit system was already in place, thus presumably allowing them to reduce the pre-subsidy price due to credit sales... I'm pretty sure that's how BYD was able to achieve the incredibly low pre-subsidy price of the Yuan EV.

    (And also how Tesla was able to significantly reduce their Chinese prices this year...)

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    1. The bar of the low emissions credit system is pretty low given the sales in China. I suspect the price of credits will not be high. I'm wondering when the Chinese government will announce the target for 2021 and how high it will be.

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    2. That's what I thought as well -- but if memory serves right, I saw mention somewhere that the credits actually sell at a fairly substantial price... Maybe combustion car makers are buying and hoarding excess credits just in case, as happened in other markets?...

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  4. I still think Toyota might be in trouble, unless they considerably step up their BEV game...

    At least they are now talking about their dedicated BEV platform again for the first time in years; suggesting that they are on track to introduce the first models fairly soon. However, their BEV sales projections are ridiculous -- unless they *considerably* increase their production targets, they simply won't be able to sell a meaningful number of BEVs, no matter how competitive they turn out to be... Betting on PHEVs instead will inevitably result in a loss in market share medium-term, in view of the much slower growth of PHEV sales compared to BEVs.

    (And frankly, one of the two biggest auto makers having EV sales much lower than smaller players like say Nissan or Hyundai, isn't a good look even now...)

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    1. Yeah, including PHEVs won't help Toyota in the long term, as we are seeing PHEVs regressing in more developed markets, so Toyota will need to invest heavily in BEVs, and especially in battery availability, as it's not enough to have good EVs, but one needs also lots of batteries. Ask Hyundai-Kia.

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  5. Perhaps the most interesting titbit is the good result of the Kona EV: for a long time, there were rumours that total global production of that model is planned only for 20,000 or 30,000 units per year -- but now it looks like they will already hit 20,000 in half a year...

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    1. Ironically, the very same evening I saw a Kona BEV in the wild for the first time :-)

      (And also just a couple dozen steps further down the road, a brand new 2020 Kia e-Soul, covered in promotional stickers...)

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    2. Yep, Hyundai is losing thousands of Kona EV sales, due to lack of batteries, so i expect them to be trying to increasing battery output as fast possible, so they don't lose further sales.

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    3. I don't think Hyundai actually minds losing BEV sales? They said themselves that their EVs aren't profitable yet (and won't be for a while) -- so anything they sell in excess of what is required to fulfil emission standards, is just net loss for them...

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  6. Model 3 estimate is obviously too low, unless you have a reason to not believe InsideEV's estimate of 13950 US deliveries.

    EV-Sales said 2849 for Europe + 2000 for China, add in 13950 for the US and you get 18799, already 830 more than this post says.

    Canada generally has about 10% as many deliveries as the US, so that'd be another 1400... and I guess that's about it. I thought there'd be more, but deliveries to Japan, Australia, and New Zealand probably didn't start until June... Mexico has been a very minor market for Tesla so far, almost non-existent.

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    1. This number already had the Chinese numbers updated, which were much lower than expected.

      Something fishy is happening with the Model 3 in China, does anybody has any clue why actual deliveries are much lower than expected?

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  7. It looks like the Prius Prime is only a bit over half of Toyota's volume. What's the rest? Did they launch a PHEV Corolla?

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    1. May be electric C-HR in China.

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    2. Yes, Corolla PHEV in China.

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    3. Corolla PHEV and Levin PHEV in China.

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    4. Levin is just a slightly restyled Corolla AIUI?...

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  8. AnonymousJune 30, 2019

    Thanks for share this information
    --Website Link--

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  9. The global car market slips into a deep recession. I do not expect any improvement until next year. This hits also the electric car market, which will very likely decline this year

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    1. Maarten VinkhuyzenJuly 01, 2019

      World wide YoY growth of PEV sales:
      2019-01 87%
      2019-02 38%
      2019-03 59%
      2019-04 29%
      2019-05 13%

      2019 5 months 41%

      To have the a lower 2019 total than the 2018 total, the second half of this year needs to be terrible. With all the new PEV coming to market in 2019-H2 this is highly unlikely.

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    2. While some markets are hit harder than others, being down a few percent globally is not exactly what I'd call a "deep recession"... With EV sales growing >40% globally each year (and even more for pure BEVs), a few percent dip in the total car market is lost in statistical noise.

      But hey -- anything for some nice doom and gloom, right? :-P

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    3. Even if the overall market does down, the only thing i see happening to plugins is the end of fast growth, maybe to 10% growth in H2.

      Which is still good, in a falling market context.

      So, PEVs will continue winning market share, be it by organic growth, but also because the mainstream market is shrinking.

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  10. Jose,

    Global Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the first half of 2019: 128,450.

    That's the total of Q1 + Q2 (50,900 + 77,550).

    Cheers

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  11. Xinhua has BYD June as 26570 NEV of which 25850 PV. Rest bus and truck. Tesla jums ahead. July botu loose incentives. Lets see.

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    1. So that puts Tesla some 18,000 units ahead at the end of Q2? Seems unlikely (though not entirely impossible) BYD will be able to catch up with that...

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  12. Interesting but oldish news here:

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/china-low-speed-electric-vehicle-industry-report-2018-byvin-yogomo-and-shifeng-group-are-the-top-3-players-300657214.html

    China LSEV number has gone from 1.232 million in 2016 to 1.744 million in '17.

    Leaders in '17 were Byvin with 202 000, Yogomo with 150 000 and Shifeng with 110 000.

    I believe '18 numbers are a little lower as NEV's are taking over from the LSEV's.

    Cheers

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    1. Yeah, I've seen a chart somewhere including 2018 numbers: and LSEVs were definitely down. (Below "proper" EVs for the first time.)

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