Saturday, March 31, 2018

Global Top 10 February 2018

Image result for 2018 nissan Leaf on top

Models: Nissan Leaf Surges

Registrations grew 43% in February, to some 81.000 units, placing the YTD numbers at 163.000 units (+65% YoY), with the Chinese models being responsible for 38% of all deliveries, currently the global PEV share stands at 1.1% share, which makes the prospect that this year the global PEV market could reach the two million units (and over 2% share) all the more realistic. 

This month it was all about the new Nissan Leaf, with the Second Generation of the Japanese hatchback landing in dealerships in North America and Europe, deliveries surged (+42% regarding January, +48% YoY), and with a five-digit long waiting list, expect registrations to continue increasing, with March set to surpass the 10.000 units. Unless the leader BAIC EC-Series pulls out a 10k-plus result (It wouldn't be the first time), we should see the Leaf reach the global leadership next month.

As for the remaining Top 10, there were two significant changes, the BYD Song PHEV jumped to Third Place, while the Prius PHEV also climbed to Fourth.

The lower two places have two new customers, with the Renault Zoe returning to the Top 10 in Ninth and a fresh face showing up in #10: After a close race with the VW e-Golf, the Tesla Model 3 finally made its first appearance among the global best sellers. The first of many, i would say.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, there were no changes in February, pure electrics stand at 56%, expect this score to be constantly improved throughout the year, maybe to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for 2018 BYD Song DM
BYD Song PHEV: The brand new Best Seller

Manufacturers:  BYD returns to #1

The "Three B's" continue to monopolize the podium, but this time BYD switched positions with BAIC, with the Shenzhen brand returning to the leadership, and the Beijing manufacturer going down to Third, due to a low 4.446 deliveries, its worst performance in 12 months.

Just outside the podium, Nissan jumped three spots and displaced Tesla, to reach Fourth Place, thanks to 6.520 deliveries, the brand best result in 11 months. Expect the Japanese manufacturer to catch the "B Trio" soon, probably in March. 

Looking elsewhere, Toyota climbed to Eighth and Renault returned to the Top 10, after surpassing Chevrolet (#11, 5.792 units) and Volvo (#12, 5.074).

Friday, March 30, 2018

Europe February 2018

Image result for nissan leaf 2018

New Nissan Leaf lands with a bang

The European passenger plug-in market registered over 22,000 registrations, growing 39% regarding the same period last year, pulling the Year-to-date counting to almost 47,000 deliveries, a 35% increase, and leading to a 1.9% market share, unfortunately plug-in hybrids (+54% YoY) continue to outrun all-electric vehicles (+26%), thus increasing their lead (55% share, +2%) over BEVs (45%).

And yet, the top four positions in February belonged to BEVs, with the majority of the 2018 Top 10 belonging to fully electric models. Funny, uh?

All six BEV nameplates in the Top 10 have waiting lists, with some of them being over 8 months long, so if there weren’t production constraints, BEVs would easily overcome plug-in hybrids. If only there were enough battery factories to satisfy demand…

If the VW e-Golf dethroning the Renault Zoe was the headline in January, in February the French hatchback had its revenge, recovering the leadership, but the real news came a couple of positions below...

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for White renault Zoe
#1 Renault Zoe – The 2,439 deliveries in February signaled the return to form of the French hatchback, but it was still down 12% YoY, with no known production hiccups, and the demand as strong as ever, this slowdown can be attributed to the fact of LG not having enough batteries to provide the French automaker. As for market individual performances, if its domestic market is still underperforming (1,155 units, down 26% YoY), there were positive numbers in Germany (475 units), Portugal (144 units, a new all-time record for a single model there) and Spain (106 deliveries).   

Image result for White 2018 BMW i3s
#2 BMW i3 – The German Stormtrooper Hatchback sales were flat (+2%) in February, with 1,598 units being delivered, with the all-electric version now representing 72% of deliveries, one can consider the i3 as part of the BEV team. Looking at individual countries, despite a weak result in Norway, with 377 units (down 24%), in Germany (311 units) the i3 presented a solid result, while Switzerland (232) had a deliveries peak. Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to remain stable in the coming months.

Image result for nissan leaf 2018
#3 Nissan Leaf – The 2.0 version of the most popular plug-in in the world has made its European debut in February and the first signs are that it is destined for success, and that despite the fact that it’s still not being available across the Continent, and in most markets the stock is made of demonstration units. By registering 1,540 units in February, the Nissan hatchback had the best landing month ever in this market, and with orders coming in at around 4,000 units/month, expect the Leaf to break all records in March, with the headline being the 2,000-plus(!) deliveries in Norway. But back to February, the main markets were Norway (781 deliveries), France (306), Netherlands (150) and the UK (120), probably the only ones where units were actually delivered in volume to customers.

Image result for White 2018 VW e-Golf
#4 Volkswagen e-Golf – Remember the time when saying “e-Golf” was synonymous with “Norway”? Not anymore, despite Norway still being the largest market (472 units), the German BEV had 465 deliveries at home, with Austria (191) and the Netherlands (141) also posting three digit-performances, so the 1,481 units registered in February were more spreaded than a year ago, benefits of a more favorable context, originating a demand that Volkswagen wasn’t expecting and leading to long lead times, something the automaker promised to cut significantly this year, thanks to increased production.

Image result for White 2018 VW Passat GTE
#5 VW Passat GTE – After a neck-to-neck race with the Outlander PHEV, the German Midsize model crossed the finish line in Fifth, thanks to 1,065 registrations, with the Volkswagen model continuing to be popular in Scandinavia (310 units in Sweden, 132 in Norway) and at home (259 deliveries), the surprise came from France, with 131 units being registered there. This is a nameplate that is popular among company car fleets, due to its mix of space, decent electric range and (relative) affordability. But on the long run, one wonders how much damage new models, like the announced 2nd Generation Volvo V60 PHEV, might do to it.

 Image result for White 2018 Porsche Panamera PHEV

Looking elsewhere, besides the 13 positions jump of the #6 Nissan Leaf, thanks arrival of the facelifted version, February brought a couple of other news worthy facts, with the most important being the Tesla Model S joining the Top 20, in...#20, with the 600 deliveries of last month compensating the dismal January, when only 432 units were delivered. Its Model X sibling is even worse, languishing below, with just 557 units having been delivered this year.

On the other hand, the Porsche Panamera PHEV climbed another position, to #15, thanks to 530 registrations, and it could be even higher if…It wasn’t suffering from a common disease (Not enough batteries). No wonder that Porsche is looking to the upcoming Mission E like children waiting for Easter Eggs…

Outside the Top 20, the Smart Forfour ED had its best month yet (360 units), while Volvo is slowly increasing output of their S/V90 PHEV twins, having reached 538 units in February, pulling the 2018 registrations to 930 units. A Top 20 presence soon?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking there are some interesting duels, last year winner BMW (17%) is in the lead, but Volkswagen (16%, up 1%) is getting dangerously close, while Volvo is back at the glory days, reaching the medals for the first time since 2013, having surpassed Renault in the last place of the podium, if by only 48 units.

Outside the medal races, Mercedes is Fifth, with 6% share, but it already has Nissan (5%) in its rearview mirror, just waiting for the next corner (March) to overcome it and play catch with the medal bearers.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Japan February 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 Nissan Leaf

Nissan steals Toyota's thunder and pulls market to record levels

The first two months of 2018 saw this market jump into record levels (1.4% Market share, up from 1.1% last year), an amazing feat when one considers that the mainstream market is down 2% this year.

This is all thanks to the introduction of the new Nissan Leaf, that has been getting regular Top 30 appearances in the mainstream market, thanks to record performances, like the 3.720 registrations of last February.

This has allowed the Nissan hatchback to have an amazing 60% share of the Plug-in market, leaving last year Best Seller, the Toyota Prius PHEV, in the dust, watching its sales dive 21% YoY. 

I think there might be a correlation between both events...

As for the third significant Plug-in model in Japan, the Outlander PHEV, sales are up 69% this year, unharmed by the Leaf success (Well, Both appeal to different demographics, right?), but neverthless, the Mitsubishi SUV has known better days, taking 2016 as an example, in the first two months of the year, it had already 2.118 registrations.

Despite still being quite early to already crown the 2018 Best Seller, i think it is safe to say that the Nissan Leaf will recover the Ceptre in 2018, and with a new sales record (Current one is 26.734 units, established last year by the Prius PHEV).

e) Estimate

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Iceland February 2018

Resultado de imagem para Outlander PHEV Iceland

All mighty Outlander PHEV in High Flying Iceland

Sales continue on the rise in Iceland (+73%), leading to a market share of 19%, this plug-in market is now sailing through the mainstream market, being only the second market to do so, after Norway having shown the way.

Looking at the models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV continues as strong as ever, having already registered 195 units this year, followed at a distance by the two Volvo SUV's: the XC60 is Second, with 43 units, while the XC90 PHEV is Third, with 37 registrations, making it a 100% SUV podium.

The best selling BEV is the VW e-Golf, in Fourth, but this is another market where Nissan has a hundreds-long waiting list for the new Leaf, so the Japanese hatchback should retain the Best Selling BEV award in 2018, and maybe even have a shot at outselling the allmighty Outlander PHEV.

In the brands ranking, Mitsubishi (38%) is firmly in the leadership, followed by the #2 Volkswagen (16%) and #3 Volvo (15%), Both running neck to neck for the Silver medal.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Portugal February 2018

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal
Renault Zoe: An increasingly common sight in Lisbon

Renault Zoe Superstar 

PEV Sales continue on the rise in Portugal, with sales in 2018 up 169% YoY, to 920 units, and the Plug-in Share at a record 2.6%, there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3-4% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market was (is) known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so), but even here, there are historic times, with diesel sales down 10%, in a growing market (+4%), leading to a share drop of 9%, from 64% a year ago, to the current 55%. At this rate, diesel sales will be dead in Portugal by 2024... 

The diesel demise is the gain of every other fuel, regular gasoline powered cars are up 23% YoY, HEVs are growing 55%, LPG is up 80%, while BEVs are jumping 94%, to 1.1% share, and PHEVs are shooting three-fold, now holding 1.5% of the total market, making them responsible for 56% of the total PEV market. Considering this once was BEV turf, it is sad to see another market favour Plug-in hybrids over all-electric vehicles, but hey, growth is growth, right? 

Moving on, after years of underwelming performances, the Renault Zoe finally lived up to expectations in 2017, winning last year Best Seller trophy, its first, and 2018 is going the same way, with the Frech hatchback delivering 144 units in February, a new absolute record for any single model in this market, contributing to the fact that 1 in 4 passenger PEVs registered in Portugal this year is a Zoe...

Kudos for the local Renault importer for believing in its electric supermini sales potential. Then again, their lead is said to be short-lived, as rumours say that Nissan already has some 800-900 orders for its new Leaf waiting to be delivered...

The following places are in the hands of company-car friendly cars, while the BMW i3 is in a surprisingly low place, in Ninth. Lack of demand or not enough units to deliver?

As for BMW Plug-in hybrids, they continue to flourish ,with the 530e in Second Place, being also the best selling PHEV, while the 330e is now #4 and the 225xe Active Tourer is #6.

Confirming BMW's good moment here, the Mini Countryman PHEV is also among the best sellers, in #6.

Looking below, the Passat GTE is the best selling Volkswagen, in #12, while the e-Golf is in an unusually low #19. The local importer needs to focus more on Plug-ins and then getting enough units from the Mothership...

In the manufacturers ranking, Renault (24%) is slightly ahead of last year winner BMW (23%), while Mercedes (14%) is a comfortable Third, ahead of Smart (9%).

Source: ACAP

Monday, March 26, 2018

Italy February 2018

Image result for 2017 Panamera PHEV
Panamera PHEV: Hot Seller in Italy

Smart Fortwo Jumps to #1 

The Italian PEV market is increasing the pace, in February sales were up 82%, to 490 units, pulling the YTD tally to 1060 units (+61% YoY), although the 2018 PEV share is still at a low 0.3%. 

While growth is always good, especially in a low share market like this one, it is sad to see that this previously BEV-predominant market, now has PHEVs (52% share) outselling all-electric vehicles. 

Lack of charging infrastructure?

Nevertheless, the big splash this year is coming from a BEV, with the Smart Fortwo ED being responsible for 1 out of 4 registrations this year, and delivering more units in two months, than in the whole year of 2017.

The other headlining change was the Porsche Panamera PHEV jumping from an already impressive #11 in 2017, to Second Place(!) this year, an amazing feat for the six-figure priced car, making it the highest standing for the Second Generation Porsche Sports Sedan, anywhere.

Another surprising performance comes from the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV, #8 this year and the first time a model from the Korean brand sells in significant volumes here.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Smart is now in the lead, with 26% share, overcoming last year leader BMW (15%), in Second Place, while Mercedes (8%) is looking to keep its podium place from the hands of Porsche (7%). 

Friday, March 23, 2018

Germany February 2018

Image result for 2017 Smart Fortwo ED vs VW e-Golf

Smart cars on a roll in a changing market

The PEV Fever has definitely caught on in Germany, with February registering over 5.000 registrations last month, a 74% increase YoY, with the PEV Share now at 2%.

But more important than the Plug-in share reaching the 2% barrier, are the seismic changes happening in the fuels mix of the mainstream market: Diesel sales dropped 20%(!) YoY, in a market up 7%, to the benefit of regular gasoline-powered cars (Up 26%) and alternative fuels, namely CNG (+414%, to 828 units), PHEVs (+77%, 1,443 units) and BEVs (+65%. 1,546), leaving diesel with a market share of only 33%, almost half of what regular gasoline cars have (63%). How many decades do we have to go back to see diesel having such a small piece of the pie?

Behind this diesel-escaping stampede seem to be the diesel-related scandals and upcoming diesel-driving city bans, changing the landscape faster than some imagined...

Back at Plug-in sales, the Best Selling model in February was the Smart Fortwo ED (510 units), for the fifth time in a row(!), followed closely by the Renault Zoe (475 units, best performance since June), and the VW e-Golf, that with 465 deliveries, had its best result in 3 months.

So, three BEVs in the podium positions, all of them production (read: battery) constrained and with waiting lists. And (some) people still don't believe in electric cars...

Another model in High Voltage was the VW Golf GTE, with 317 units, the Hot Hatch best result ever, something that is even more impressive when one considers that the nameplate exists since 2014 and it hasn't received any kind of update since. 

Smart Fortwo ED
Renault Zoe
Volkswagen e-Golf
Volkswagen Golf GTE
BMW i3

In a traditionally fragmented market, the leader Smart Fortwo ED started the year like a firm leader, but below it, several position changes happened, justifying this market fame as one of the most entertaining to follow. 

The most relevant change was the Renault Zoe climbing two positions to Third Place, while the Best Selling PHEV title also changed hands, with the VW Golf GTE stealing the ceptre from its larger sibling, the VW Passat GTE.

A new face in the Top 10 is the Smart Forfour ED, jumping four positions to #9, thanks to a record 253 deliveries, confirming that Smart EVs are as hot as pepper in Germany...

Maybe they should make a "Red/Black Pepper" edition, signaling the Brand current hotness? Just a thought...

In the second half of the table, the Mercedes E350e had a record performance in February, with 134 registrations, being now at #15. 

"What about Tesla?" - You might ask.

Well, as in many markets outside North America, 2018 started on the slow side, with the best selling of Tesla nameplates, the Model S, scoring only 169 deliveries this year, thus staying outside the Top 20. Adding insult to injury, in February, the Porsche Panamera PHEV had its second best month ever, with 180 deliveries, pulling it to #12...

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen started the year in the lead, with 20% share, in Second Place we have Smart (16%), while last year winner BMW is now only Third Place, with 14% share.

Regarding the BEV/PHEV share, BEVs were the most sold in February, but in 2018, PHEVs still have the upper hand, with 51% share.


Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids

Feb. Sales  
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Toyota C-HR Hybrid
Toyota Auris Hybrid
Smart Fortwo ED
Renault Zoe

As plug-ins reach new heights, regular hybrids are feeling the heat and being reached by PEVs, Toyota still owns the podium, but Plug-ins are getting closer, if the leader Toyota Yaris Hybrid still seems unattainable, the Third Positioned Auris Hybrid could fall next month.