Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Global Top 20 - June 2018

Image result for BAIC EC3
The new BAIC EC-Series (261 kms NEDC range), aka EC3, can't come soon enough

Models: Month 1 before TM3 Flood:

BAIC EC-Series was totally eclipsed & Nissan Leaf recovered #1, with Tesla nameplates on the up

Registrations grew 58% in June, to almost 160,000 units, the third best month ever, so despite the last threats, the current record (174,000 units, in December '17) in holding on, but will it resist much longer? Do i hear a new record by September?...

The positive first half of the year is placing the 2018 numbers at some 760,000 units (+69% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.6% share, which makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit two million units (and over 2% share).  

In June, the Tesla Model 3 was for the first time the Best Selling plug-in in the world, with close to 8,000 units (new pb), and with the deliveries dam being open in July, expect it to continue the Best Seller in the following months, at least until the currently eclipsed BAIC EC-Series, that just lost access to government subsidies, shows its new, subsidy able, version (the EC3). 

Bring the popcorn in Q4, as  we should see an entertaining race between these two in the race for the October/November/December titles...

Regarding the 2018 title, we can already envision what will happens, expect the Model 3 to jump ahead of the Leaf by September, with the EC-Series stealing the Silver medal from the Nissan Leaf by November/December. 

But Tesla wasn't all only about the Model 3, with the US deliveries on hold, the EV maker successfully focused on deliver their Model S & X units in overseas markets, with both nameplates climbing in the ranking, to #6 (Model S), and #7 (Model X).  

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the #9 Renault Zoe climbed one position, to Ninth, while looking below the usual Top 10, we see the #11 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV close to the top two positions, while the BMW i3, a familiar face in previous years on the Top 10, is now down to #13, despite growing sales (+8% YoY).

Looking at potential Top 10 candidates, there are three models, all coming from China: The BYD e5, the Roewe i6 PHEV and the BAIC EX-Series, if the first is a regular in Top 20 appearances, the other two are breaking records every passing month, and should be racing for a Top 10 presence by September.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics stayed at 63% of the total market, but expect this score to be improved during the year, possibly to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
The one in the middle is said to flood the US charts in July...

Manufacturers:  Month 1 before TM3 Flood - Tesla and BYD clear from the competition

June saw BAIC lose ground to the top two, with BYD beating its all-time record, thanks to 16,278 units, while Tesla was just 8 units away from beating its all-time best. 

If Tesla is the favorite to win the 2018 manufacturers title, in this case the race should be closer than in the models category, it will all depend if BYD can increase output and deliver the new Tang, Qin and Yuan models in large numbers. As with Tesla, demand is there, all we need to know is if they can make enough of them...

Elsewhere, Nissan recovered the Fifth Spot from Volkswagen, but both are now seeing the #7 Roewe getting bigger and bigger on the rear view mirror, as the Shanghai OEM posted a third consecutive(!) record result, with 12,277 units, allowing it to be Third in June, and being just 900 units behind #5.

Will we see it surpass both the German and the Japanese brands in July? If that were to happen, we would have three Chinese OEMs on the Top 5, and only one legacy OEM (BMW) in it.
Speaking of Chinese automakers, Chery returned to the Top 10 after a long absence, jumping three positions into Eighth, thanks to a record performance of 6,739 deliveries.

Because we are at half time of the 2018 game, let's look below the Top 10 and see the major changes happening below it, Volvo (+150% YoY), Kia (+218%), Hyundai (+58%) and the little known Chinese brand Hawtai are the big gainers this year, with the Chinese brand having already outperformed its 2017 result in just 6 months...

If we gather sales by Automotive Groups, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance is ahead, with 11% share (Up 1% regarding 2017), followed by BYD and Tesla, both with 9% share, while BAIC, the BMW Group and the Volkswagen Group all race for #4, with 8% share, with the interesting fact that VAG has won 2% share regarding 2017.

Looking at sales by brand origin, the Chinese is the unconstested leader, with 46% of all deliveries, while Germany (18%, down 1%) holds steady in Second Place, and the USA (14%, up 1%) profits from the Tesla momentum, to keep Japan (11%, down 1%) at bay.

Segment Leaders

A / City Car - In a segment completely owned by Chinese OEMs, the BAIC EC-Series is the undisputed King;
B / Subcompact - The Renault Zoe continues to outsell the BMW i3;
C / Compact - A big reshuffle regarding last year, with the Nissan Leaf regaining the lead, with the Toyota Prius PHEV and BYD Qin PHEV following it at a distance; 

D / Midsize - What has been expected since a long time ago, happenned: The Tesla Model 3 is the new, undisputed, class leader;
E+F / Fullsize - Tesla Model S, hands down leader since 2012. Second Place is in the hands of the successful (#20) BMW 530e, followed by the Porsche Panamera PHEV, that is continuing its success story;
Sports car / Coupé / Convertible - BMW i8 (1,516 units), is in the lead once again, without real competition, for reference, the Second Placed was the recently arrived BAIC Arcfox Lite (Well, if one can consider it a Coupé...), with 574 units;
SUV / Crossover - The hottest class on the Automotive World is seeing its class poster-child, the Tesla Model X, in front, with two compact Crossovers following it: The VW Tiguan-like BYD Song PHEV (#2) and the Renault Captur-like JAC iEV7S/E (#3);
MPV / Minivan - A class that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Crossover craze, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer is still the segment Best Seller (4,735 units), followed by the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (3,982 units);
LCV / Van - Interesting changes here, with the Renault Kangoo ZE profiting from the new 33kWh battery to jump ahead, with 3,494 units, followed by the StreetScooter (1,950 units) and Peugeot Partner EV (1,350);
Pick up Truck - The Chinese Dongfeng Rich EV (108 units) repeated last year title being the only model to reach significant numbers. This is a golden opportunity that no one so far (Chinese included) has tried to take. For how long?

Monday, July 30, 2018

Europe June 2018

Image result for nissan leaf 2018 vs renault zoe

Renault Zoe beats Nissan Leaf

The European passenger plug-in market continues pushing forward, by registering some 38,000 registrations, up 37% regarding the same period last year and the second best performance ever, pulling the Year-to-date count to some 185,000 deliveries (+43% YoY), while the 2018 market share was up to 2.2% (2.4% in June).

This time, BEVs grew slower (+20%) than PHEVs (+55%). Will we see all-electrics bounce back in the second half of the year?

Looking at Europe’s fuel mix, diesel continues to drop significantly (-16% YoY) in a growing market (+5.2%), while all other fuels (including CNG, LPG…) are on the rise, profiting from the diesel-fleeing stampede, at this pace, the new registrations of diesel-powered vehicles will be virtually dead by 2025…  

June saw the Renault Zoe beat the Nissan Leaf for the first time since February, with BEVs continuing to own the top positions, while the Tesla Model S profited from the usual last-month-of-quarter peak to join the Top 5 in #4.

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to score another Top 5 presence, winning at the same time the bestselling PHEV award.

Among models that landed in 2018, the Best Selling one is the Land Rover Range Rover Sport PHEV, that registered 235 units in June, adding to the current 498 registrations made this year.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for 2018 white Renault Zoe

#1 Renault Zoe – June’s 3,425 deliveries meant a 16% drop for the French hatchback, but nevertheless, it allowed the Renault BEV to narrowly beat its Japanese cousin and become the Best Seller in June. The French automaker is running to satisfy the Zoe orders, and with the production output set to increase in a couple of months, expect the model to increase registrations and give the its Leaf cousin a run for the money in the second half of the year. As for individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 1,928 units, with other significant numbers coming from Germany (465 units), Norway (183) and the Netherlands (130).   

Image result for 2018 white Nissan Leaf

#2 Nissan Leaf –The 2.0 version of the most common plug-in in the world continues to expand its sales, by registering 3,377 units in June, doubling the result of last year, and with the orders list still to be satisfied in a few countries, expect the Leaf to continue running for #1. But back at June performance, the main markets were Norway (1,152 deliveries), UK (500), France (469), The Netherlands (251) and Portugal (158).

Image result for 2018 white Outlander PHEV

#3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a rock, despite a revised version being weeks from landing, the Japanese SUV secured yet another Best-Selling PHEV of the Month award and a podium presence in June, thanks to 2,174 registrations, up an amazing 46%, the nameplate highest growth rate in years. This exceptional performance is possibly explained by a stock clearance event, as the (slightly) revised version is set to arrive on Q3 2018, so the Mitsubishi plug-in SUV will continue to offer its unique mix of space, AWD and affordability (40.000€), with the added bonus of a larger electric range (28 mi/45 kms real world range) and more power (+15 hp) at hand, keeping it popular in markets like the UK, Norway or Sweden, all registering around 500 registrations/month. Going forward, the Japanese SUV is expected to keep wearing its Europe’s Best-Selling PHEV crown in the foreseeable future.

Image result for 2018 Tesla Model S white

#4 Tesla Model S – The Sports Sedan had its best June ever in Europe, thanks to 2,105 deliveries, up 52% YoY. This is an impressive result for the Californian, not only because it’s been around in the Old Continent since 2013, but especially because the Model 3 is just six months away from crossing The Pond and land on this side of the Atlantic, which could already make a shadow over its older (and more expensive) sibling, eclipsing its sales. So far it hasn’t been the case, with the nameplate’s 2018 sales performance actually growing 14% YoY. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s usual contribution (467 units), the Netherlands have registered a record month, with 650 deliveries, while Germany and the UK also had significant contributions, with some 200 registrations in both countries.

Image result for 2018 white BMW i3

#5 BMW i3 – The German Hot Hatch sales increased slightly (+21% YoY) in June, with 2,002 units being delivered, and with the Leipzig factory expected to grow output towards the end of the year, thanks to the upcoming 44kWh version, do not expect the Bavarian carmaker to be worried with its quirky looking hatchback sales performance. Looking at individual countries, this time Germany (509 units, 399 of them being BEV) was the largest market for the i3, displacing Norway (335), with France (182) rounding the Top 3 absorbers of the BMW electric model.

 Image result for Tesla Model S/X

Tesla models climb positions

Looking at the 2018 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the headlining news being the Tesla Model S climbing to #6, and underlining a positive month for Tesla, the Model X jumped five positions, to #11, thanks to 1,829 units, a new Year Best.

Other changes in the Top 20 were the BMW 225xe Active Tourer climbing two positions to #17, thanks to a record 1,555 units, while its British cousin, the Mini Countryman PHEV, joined the Top 20, in #18, hitting also a record performance (1,556 registrations).

With June being the Second Best selling month ever, there were a bunch of record performances, besides the previously mentioned, the Volvo XC60 PHEV delivered a record 1,327 deliveries, while the BMW 530e continues on its expanding streak, having delivered a record 1,266 units in June.

Outside the Top 20, the BMW X5 PHEV delivered a record 857 units, while another giant SUV, the Audi Q7 e-Tron, had its best month (428 units) in 18 months, this sudden peak in the flagship PHEV SUVs has to do with mid-year fiscal changes in a number of countries, added to the new WLTP cycle, that will increase significantly the prices of short range PHEVs.

A final reference for the revised BMW i8, that with 275 deliveries, had its best result ever(!) since it landed in 2014. 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (17%) is in the lead, with the runner-up Volkswagen (13%, down 1%), losing a bit of ground to the leader, while Nissan (10%) is keeping the Bronze medal, with its cousin Renault (9%) close to the podium positions, ahead of Volvo (8%) and Tesla (7%).

Poland June 2018 (Updated Draft)

Nissan Leaf #1

After a long absence, we have Poland back at EV Sales, some 700 units were sold in the first half of 2018, with sales up 109% regarding the previous year, with the PEV Share growing to a record 0.3%.

Looking at the models ranking, after winning the Best Seller trophy in 2013 and 2017, the Nissan Leaf is once again in the lead, more than doubling the registrations of the Second Placed BMW i3, and with a waiting list said to still be in the hundreds, expect the Japanese Hatchback to renew the Best Seller title easily.

Elsewhere, the most surprising result is the Kia Niro PHEV, jumping to Third Place in 2018.

Looking at the Manufacturers ranking, Nissan is ahead, with 25% of the market, but #2 BMW is running close, with 23% share, while in Third we have Volvo, with 12%, and just outside the Podium there is Kia, with 10%.

Nissan Leaf
BMW i3
Kia Niro PHEV e)
Volvo XC60 PHEV e)
BMW 225xe AT e)