Friday, January 31, 2020

Global Top 20 - December 2019

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Models: Tesla Model 3 celebrates its 2nd Best Seller award in a recovering December

There were some 279.000 registrations in the last month of the year, that represented the third best month ever, and despite a 4% drop YoY, it wasn't as bad as previously feared, in fact BEVs had their first positive month since August, having registered 374 more units than in December 2018. On the other hand, PHEVs crashed once again in December, dropping 19% YoY... 

This recovering performance helped the yearly tally to remain positive, crossing the 2 million plugins mark, to 2,2 millions (up 10% YoY), and placing the final 2019 global PEV share, at 2,5% share, up from 2,1 in 2018.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by 5% in 2019, to 74% of the total market (81% in December), mostly thanks to China and the Model 3, making this the highest BEV share since 1411 2011! 

In December the question at the top was knowing if the Bronze Medal would change hands, and in deed it did, with the Nissan Leaf overcoming the BYD Yuan EV in the last stage of the race, both far behind the Silver Medalist BAIC EU-Series, only the second EV to score a six-digit result in a year, but even the Beijing Auto electric sedan pales next to this year winner, the Tesla Model 3, that celebrated its second trophy in a row by setting yet another all-time record, by delivering over 53,000 units last month, more than doubling the 2018 score.

Despite winning the Bronze Medal, Nissan should be worried about the Leaf performance, as sales were down 20% regarding the previous year, and this happens in a year where the Japanese hatchback received a new 62 kWh battery...

...So either Nissan drops the Leaf prices this year, or else the veteran model will see its sales crash even further. It's up to you, Nissan. 

In a recovery month, there was a lot to talk about, not only the Tesla Model 3 scored a new all-time monthly record, but also the #2 BAIC EU-Series reached a new Personal Best, being the first non-Tesla to make more than 20.000 units in one month.

But it was on the second half of the table that we saw some action, with the Tesla Model X climbing one position to 11th, thanks to 5,869 units in December, its best performance of the year, with the Chery eQ also profiting from a slow month of the Toyota Prius PHEV, to reach #12

As for the remaining ranking, the veteran VW e-Golf ended the year on high note, climbing to #14, while the SAIC Ei5 EV Station Wagon was up two spots, to #17.

But the Surprise of the Month was the GAC Aion S finally reaching the Top 20, landing in #16 securing its status of Rookie Of The Year. How high will it go in 2020? I wouldn't be surprised if it got inside the Top 5...

But there were also models shining outside the Top 20, the third model to hit a 5-digit score last month was the BAIC EC-Series, with 11.409 units, allowing it to jump to #21, less than 1.000 units behind the #20 Tesla Model S.

The SAIC MG eZS EV scored 6.135 units, the #22 VW Passat GTE and the #23 Audi e-Tron hit record performances in December, allowing them to end less than 3.000 units from a Top 20 spot.

Seeing the #20 Model S sales drop 42% YoY in 2019, and already having problems in keeping a Top 20 spot, Tesla REALLY needs to do something to its flagship car this year...If that doesn't happen, the Audi e-Tron will surely outsell it, and we could even see the niche Porsche Taycan surpass it sometime in 2020!

And the Model X could benefit from fresh blood too, as its sales dropped 20% last year. Just a thought, Tesla...

On the other hand, there were a few models that progressed significantly in 2019, like the SAIC's Baojun E-Series, that came out of obscurity straight into #5, the Hyundai Kona EV, that joined the ranking this year in #9,  and it could aspire to higher standings in 2020, if Hyundai can get more battery volumes, allowing it to finally ramp up production to meet the chronical waiting list of its crossover.

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla repeats the trophy

After a race that seemed like a walk in the park, Tesla has won once again the Best Selling PEV maker trophy, with 366.000 units, winning with over 100.000 units advantage over the #2 BYD, with the Californian brand score a new all-time record in December (63.000 units), just to put the icing on the cake

BYD was only #7 in December, but its advantage over the competition was more than enough to secure the runner-up status (again), while the #3 BAIC scored the best monthly performance ever for a EV maker that doesn't have a "T" in its logo, with over 36.000 units in December, making sure that it kept the Bronze Medal away from the grubby hands of the #4 SAIC, that by the way, also scored a record performance last month, with over 18.000 units.

Funny enough, the #5 BMW (16k) and #6 Volkswagen (14k) also had their best months ever in December, allowing this last one to jump two positions last month, making it one of the manufacturers that most progress had in 2019.

Looking into 2020, if Tesla is set to repeat the title, there will be plenty of interesting stuff happening below it...BAIC and SAIC should continue with ambitious plans, while BYD will be betting in resuming the growth path and Volkswagen will not only become the leading legacy brand, but will also try to run along the Chinese Big 3, and let's not forget a few dark horses (Hyundai, GAC…) that could bet in the way of the favorites! 

Coming down to the second half of the ranking, both #13 Renault and #16 Volvo broke their personal records in December, while GAC continued its rise and rise, now in #15, hitting a record 10.638 units in December.

Dongfeng had a personal best performance of 11.408 units, allowing it to jump into the Top 20 and reach #18. 

The rise of Dongfeng to the Top 20 kicked out Chevrolet from the table, with the American brand ending in #21, just a few units ahead of the #22 Audi, that scored a record 7.807 units in December and allowed it to end the year some 500 units behind the #20 JAC, in what can only be seen as good sign for the Ingolstadt brand, will we see it on the Top 20 a year from now?

Comparing the 2019 performances with the previous year, we can see some makers in trouble (Nissan was down 17%, Chery, 26%, JAC, 30%), while others are in stark progression, like Kia (+43% YoY), Hyundai (+38%), or Volvo (+31%). 

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Markets Roundup - December 2019

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I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2019:


* BAIC EU-Series #1 - First time winner, but in 2020 it will have more competition; 

* 1.2 million units - What a roller coaster, great first half of the year, then after the incentives change, a stark drop, with December ending with a sign of hope. And the Market Share reached 5.5%, above the share of the USA or Europe. 


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Second win for the Californian, but in 2020 the Model Y lands, so...Enjoy it while you can, Model 3;

* 325.000 sales - Poor second half of the year, leading to slight drop, to 2.0% share.


* Tesla Model 2 #1 - First title for Tesla in Europe, to be repeated in 2020, but in 2021, things should become more interesting;

* 564.000 units - Sales increased the pace, with the PEV share reaching 3.6%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now owning 64% of the market. 


* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 44.000 units - What can i say, sales have (again) dropped and the PEV share has dropped to 0.8%. Disappointing.


* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Canada's darling. At least until the Model y lands...

* 51.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.6%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - A new year, a new win for the Crossover, scoring another all-time record (14.000 units). The Kona EV is the leader in Korea.

* 34.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.9%. A mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell, that registered 4,000 units, leading to a 0.2% share, being the only place FCEVs started to become common(ish).

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III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Tesla Model 3 lands and immediately becomes the Best Seller. PEV share jumped to 2.6% (up from 1.4% in 2018);

Israel - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #1, market has beaten the 2018 records and reached 1.5% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Australia - Doubling sales (9,000 units), with the Tesla Model 3 stealing the show and winning the Best Seller title. The market share needle is finally starting to move (0.9% PEV share);

Brazil - Volvo XC60 PHEV was the Best Seller, in a year that things finally started to move upwards (1,500 units), although share wise, we are still rock bottom (0.1%);

Mexico - Tesla Model 3 steals the show and pulls the market up (1,400 units in total), but share wise, it is still in its infancy (0.1%);

Colombia - Fast growth is moving up the needle (0.5% share), with the BMW i3 becoming the 2019 Best Seller;

South Africa - Jaguar and Land Rover came into play and together with BMW, they are the only ones pulling the market up, allowing it to reach record heights (300 units...);

Taiwan - Tesla Model 3 disrupts the market, making it grow 5-fold, while the plugin share finally starts to move (0.4% share);

Hong Kong - Although still far from the 2017 record (4,000 units), the 2019 result (2,000 units) allowed it to come alive again and reach some 5% share;

Singapore - A record 1,400 units allowed this market to reach 1.9%, with the 2019 Best Seller being the Hyundai Kona EV; 

Friday, January 24, 2020

Europe December 2019

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Tesla Model 3 shatters records in hot market

The European passenger plug-in market registered a record 77,000 registrations in December (+88%!), with the Dutch market helping to pull the market up, and BEVs (+91% YoY) growing faster than PHEV (+81%), with the powertrain breakdown becoming even more BEV-friendly  (68% BEVs / 32% PHEVs in December vs 64% / 36% in 2019).

The 64% share in 2019 is a massive 13% growth for pure electrics regarding last year, when they had just 51% share, and i remember at the time, we were celebrating the fact that for the first time in 4 years, BEVs were finally outselling plugin hybrids...Oh, how the times have changed!

Last month sales surge pulled the final 2019 count to a record 564,000 units, a 45% increase regarding 2018, while the brilliant performance in December allowed plugins to reach to 6.1% (4.1% for BEVs alone) last month, pulling the final 2019 PEV share to a record 3.6% (2.2% BEVs), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

Will the plugin share reach 6% this year? More? Please place your bets.

In December several models profited from the Netherlands sales rush to perform record results, and none did it more spectacularly than the Tesla Model 3, with the Californian shattering the all-time record in Europe (22,137 units in December), while the runner-up Renault Zoe also pulled a Year Best performance last month, meaning that the French hatchback has already ramped up the revised version, and should be preparing to reach new heights in 2020.

Another big winner from the Dutch sales fever was the Audi e-Tron, that reached 3rd in December, with a record 4,225 units, it seems the Big Audi has already surpassed its own production hell and is ready to find its demand limits soon, while the veteran VW e-Golf was 4th, with an amazing 2,998 units, its best result in 13 months, so with this kind of performances, the old geezer seems to be saying: “ID-who? Never heard of it!”

A final mention to the #6 BMW 330e, that registered 2,996 units, the model’s 4th(!) record month in row. With the Bavarian suffering the biggest bleed from the Model 3 black hole effect, BMW is going all in for the 330e patch, in order to cut the bleeding, at least until the i4 antidote is not deployed.  

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Tesla Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had a memorable month, by delivering 22,137 units in one month, a new monthly record for any single plugin in Europe, with the Model 3 benefiting from the Dutch EV year end rush, by scoring 12,053 units in the Netherlands, but deliveries in the UK also did a big contribution, with some 2,700, while there were three other markets with four-digit performances (1,251 units in Norway, 1,188 in Switzerland and 1,250 in France), with several other markets also hitting sizeable three-digit scores. With part of China’s Model 3 demand now being locally made, it is expected that Tesla will find more room to satisfy its domestic market, as well as Europe, so we should start to know the organic demand of the Model 3 on this side of the pond this year, in what could be the Model 3’s peak year here, as in 2021 a certain Model Y will create its own black hole effect...    

#2 Renault Zoe– The 4,700 deliveries of December meant falling deliveries (-14%), but it was still the French hatchback best result in 2019, meaning that the production ramp up of the revised version is mostly done, and now it is ready to start 2020 in on a full charge, something that will prove to be important further along the year, because while its most direct competitors (Peugeot 208 EV, Opel Corsa EV, VW ID.3...) will spend the beggining of the year trying not to screw the production ramp up, the Zoe will be delivering thousands of units across the continent from day 1. Back to December, France pulled the usual heavy lifting, with 2,097 units, but this time the Netherlands also had a four-digit score, with a record 1,020 units, with Germany (780 units) and Switzerland (385) being also major markets for the cheeky EV.

#3 Audi e-Tron – With the initial production problems now a thing of the past, the big Audi hit a record 4,225 units last month, winning its first monthly podium seat. And while most of them (3,054 units) went to the Netherlands (#BiK change), the fact is that e-Tron has good growth prospects for 2020, thanks to the new (and cheaper) 71 kWh battery version and the launch of the interesting Sportback version, that adds a bit of flair to the dull exterior design of the regular e-Tron. But it wasn’t just the Netherlands pulling the e-Tron’s (very) heavy weight, as Norway (282 units), Switzerland (245) and Germany (182) also helped the Audi EV to reach the medals.

#4 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,998 units last month, up 44%(!) YoY, being its best performance in the last 13 months, which is an amazing result for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode for months now and has its sucessor now starting to roll of the lines in the Zwickau factory. It seems VW is going all in into plugins, milking everything it can from its current best selling electric model. Regarding the December performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were Germany (764), Netherlands (691), Norway (525) and Switzerland (348). By the way, have you noticed that Switzerland features among the major markets of all top 4 EV’s? Will Switzerland be the next Norway?


#5 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 21% in December, to 2,997 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (At least until the Mini Cooper EV and the Honda e land, it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales (possibly making it a future classic), following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (630 units) and the Netherlands (768), were its largest markets, with the following being the UK (320) and France (485).

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Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Model 3 can say like Julius Ceaser: “Veni, Vidi, Vici”, or “I came, I saw, I conquered”, after giving a couple of months of advance to the competition in the beggining of the year, the Californian basically kicked everyone’s butts on its way to the top, leading the table since last March, becoming the first Tesla to win Europe’s Best Seller award, while being also the first time since 2010(!) that a Tesla reaches the podium...Disruption, anyone?

The two times winner (2016 & ’17) Renault Zoe won another Silver Medal last year, its 4th so far (2013, ’15, ’18 and ’19), it is the longest standing model in Europe’s podium, having always been there since 2013, with the French hatchback securing the #2 spot right in March, while the 3rd place went to the two times winner (2014 & ’15) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that collected also its usual Best Selling SUV and PHEV titles (it has been with it ever since since it landed, back in 2013...), although the BMW 330e has beaten it in the last two months of the year...

Will we finally see some competition in the plugin hybrid field in 2020?

In December, there were a few last minute changes, the most important being the Audi e-Tron going up to #8, making it 7 BEVs in the Top 8...Revealing, isn’t it?

Below the front runners, the Mercedes E300e/de twins were up two places, to #14, while the new BMW 330e jumped 3 spots, to #17.

A mention to the #16 Kia Niro PHEV, that registered just 301 units, its worst performance in over 2 years, being the clearest example of the “only deliver units in 2020” order made by Kia Europe.

Outside the Top 20, December brought a number of brilliant results, like the #21 Volvo XC90 PHEV scoring 1,312 units, the Swedish best result in 4 years, the new BMW X5 PHEV scored 1,453 units, its second record performance in a row, while the Audi Q5 PHEV continued its steady rise, having registered 847 units last month.

But the Surprise of the Month were the 1,336 units of SAIC’s MG ZS EV, by far the best result of any Chinese plugin in Europe.

Looking at some sub-categories, the Renault Zoe kept its B-Segment trophy, same as the Nissan Leaf in the C-segment, despite dropping from #1 in 2018 to #4 now, the midsize car category went to the Tesla Model 3 (and it should stay with it in the foreseeable future), while in the Luxury category, the #8 Audi e-Tron succeeded to last year winner Tesla Model X (#9 last year) in the SUV category, while the BMW 530e won the Luxury car category, despite dropping from #8 in 2018 to the current #11, because last year winner, the Tesla Model S, fell 14 positions, from #6 last year, to #20 in 2019...

Finally, the MPV category was once again won by the BMW 225xe A. Tourer, while in the small crossover race, there was a leadership change, with the Mini Countryman PHEV losing the title to the Hyundai Kona EV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (20%) won the Best Seller trophy, being not only its first win in Europe, but also its first podium appearance since 2010...

The three times winner (2016, ’17 & ’18) BMW this time had to conform with the runner-up spot, with 13% share, ahead of #3 Renault (8%, down 1%), with the French brand returning to the podium, despite suffering from a short lineup, with Hyundai (7%) ending in 4th.

Looking into 2020, the Tesla Model 3 should build on its current success, possibly reaching some 120,000 units, while below it, the Renault should start the year in a firm 2nd spot, possibly reaching some 80,000 units by the end of the year, and Volkswagen will try to ramp up production of its ID.3 as fast as it can, so it can collect this year’s Bronze medal, with around 60,000-70,000 units.

But the volume of growth will come not from the Best Sellers, but from several new players said to land this year, that individually shouldn’t go much over 40,000 units, but all counted together will make the bulk of the impressive growth that the European plugin market should witness this year.

This is particularly visible in the middle-to-lower end of the market (DS3 Crossback EV, Fiat 500e, Honda e, Kia Soul EV, Mini Cooper EV, Opel Corsa EV, Opel Mokka X EV, Peugeot 208 EV, Peugeot 2008 EV, Renault Twizy EV...), that should double or triple sales, based on new model launches, while on the Premium side of the market, it will be more a case of evolution than revolution, with models adding (a bit) more volume to what it already exists, like the Lexus UX300e, Mercedes EQC (if they manage to get out of their own Production Hell), Porsche Taycan, Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 EV, although in the case of the Porsche, it will be interesting to know if it can be a serious candidate to the trophy of Best Selling Luxury Car.

Having said all this, i expect the European EV market to reach close to one million units in 2020, which would be a great prelude to the following year, 2021, as it would mean that by then, firm two-digit shares would be possible, and that would be the point where all hell would break loose EVs would become the new normal, and we could order the ICE coffin in Europe.