Tuesday, July 17, 2018

USA June 2018

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 parking lots
Let the flood begin…

Month 1 before the (TM3) Flood: Filling up the Tesla Model 3 dam

Over 22,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 33% increase YoY, with the 2018 count crossing over 100,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share at over 1.4%. 

These results alone would already be a reason to be happy with the market performance, but Tesla spent the whole June in savings mode, so that it could only cross the 200,000 units threshold in July, originating a slight deliveries drop last month, but most importantly, over 10,000 units "in transit", as in stored-somewhere-&-waiting-for-July-to-be-delivered, so expect the Tesla (Model 3) Flood to happen this month, with over 10,000 units  (20,000?) being delivered in one month, something that will set not only a new all-time record in the US-market, but possibly beating the current global record, currently in the hands of BAIC (15,719 units EC-Series, delivered last November in China) 

But back at June is the US, the leader Tesla Model 3 won another Monthly Best Seller, possibly collecting all future Best Seller awards until the Model Y gets into volume production, while the Second Placed Toyota Prius Prime consolidated its runner-up status, and also the Best-Selling PHEV model, so it seems that the first two places of the podium are already given, with 6 months to go.

Looking elsewhere, the hot-selling Honda Clarity PHEV (#3 in June) climbed to #7, switching places the Nissan Leaf, that was down 9% YoY, to 1,367 units, despite the new generation now being in full swing. Is the rapidgate and other models denting the Japanese hachback sales?

Talking of other changes, the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (710 units, Year Best) was up to #12, while the BMW 330e also had a year best (225 units), allowing it to climb to #19.

Other noteworthy performance was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, scoring another Personal Best, with 390 deliveries, confirming the popularity of this plug-in SUV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (35%, up 3%) keeps gobbling up share (Will it reach 50% this year?), while Chevrolet (12%, down 2%) is losing it almost just as fast, with Toyota (12%) closing in on the GM brand, while BMW is holding steady in Fourth, with 10%.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

 Mercedes C-Class
    BMW 3-Series
Tesla Model 3
Infiniti Q50
Acura TLX

Looking at the midsize vehicles, in June the Tesla Model 3 was for the second month in a row the Best Selling nameplate, with over 5,800 deliveries, narrowly beating the Mercedes C-Class, with 5,742. 

Also important to realize, is the fact that all the Model 3 competitors are witnessing drops of 20% or more YoY, reinforcing the idea that the Tesla nameplate is directly stealing sales to the class best sellers.

If YTD, it is (just) Third Placed, with deliveries expected to go into 5 digits next month, the Tesla midsizer will have the class leadership in the bag by next month, and keep it for a long, long time.

Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class, currently in the hands of the Toyota Camry, with 30,000 sales last month and 151,000 this year. 

Given that the mainstream market is more price-sensitive, the Model 3 can only aspire to play in this league on a monthly basis, if the $35,000 Short Range version comes alive and is made on a large scale. 

So, maybe in 2019? 2020?

Monday, July 16, 2018

Germany June 2018

Resultado de imagem para renault zoe germany

Renault Zoe climbs to #1 

The German PEV passenger car market grew 23% in June, to 5,709 registrations, with PHEVs (+25%) and BEVs (+21%) growing at similar pace. In 2018, all-electrics are reaching 1% share, while plug-in hybrids grew their share to 1%, making a total PEV share of 2%.

But the most interesting story on the fuels mix is the Titanic-like drop of diesel vehicles sales, in June their sales sank 16%, to the benefit of all other kinds of fuels, with diesel now only representing 31% of the market..At this pace, Diesel sales could be tot in this market by 2021...Inconceivable? Well, in 12 months, Diesel lost 9% share, from 40% to 31%…

Looking at June Best Sellers, BMW had a 1-2 win, with the i3 scoring 509 units, a new Year Best, while the 225xe Active Tourer registered 500 units, a new record for the German MPV.

The Renault Zoe was Third, while the Surprise of the Month was the #5 Mini Countryman PHEV, that with 300 deliveries, had its best result ever in Germany. 

Just outside the Top 5, the VW e-Golf registered only 290 deliveries, its worst performance in 11 months. Is the German brand already starting the sunset mode of its BEV hatchback?

BMW i3
BMW 225xe A. Tourer
Renault Zoe
Smart Forfour ED
Mini Countryman PHEV

Over the years, the German PEV market became known for its constant changes, with several plots and sub-plots happening every time, like a Rote Rosen-style novela, on this season, in the June chapter, we have yet another leadership change, with the Renault Zoe climbing to #1 for the first time since July '17.

But the changes in the front group didn't ended there, the BMW i3 surpassed the Smart Fortwo ED and is now the new Third Placed, but with only 358 units separating the 4 front-runners, there's still a lot to expect from this race until December, almost reminding the best races in Formula E

The Smart Forfour ED climbed two positions, to Sixth, making 6 BEVs in the Top 6 positions, which is a significant sign of what people are looking for...

In the PHEV race, the Mercedes E350e is losing ground to its persecutors (VW Passat & Golf GTE, BMW 225xe A. Tourer), with the BMW MPV expected to surpass the remaining competition in July.

The Audi A3 e-Tron is in recovery mode, jumping four positions, to #11, thanks to 279 units, its best result in 9 months, with the 2017 Best Seller looking to reach at least a Top 10 position.

As for Tesla Model S, the Sports Sedan climbed two positions to #15, but it is still behind its direct competitor, the #12 Porsche Panamera PHEV. Germany would always be a tough market to crack for Tesla (A bit like the BMW i3 in the US), but the truth is that this year, the Model S deliveries are down 32% YoY, while the Model X is faring even worse (-37% YoY). Are the upcoming German Premium BEVs already making a dent in Tesla sales?

Underlining another positive month for BMW, the 530e sedan also hit a personal best, with 161 registrations, allowing it to climb to #17.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (17%, down 1%) continues in the lead, but BMW (16%) is getting closer, while the #3 Smart (12%) is stable in the last place of the podium. 

Source: kba.de

Saturday, July 14, 2018

Global June '18 Top 5 - Half game bet

1. Nissan Leaf - 42k
2. BAIC EC-Series - 40k
3. Tesla Model 3 - 27k
4. Toyota Prius PHEV - 25k
5. BYD Qin PHEV - 23k

Friday, July 13, 2018

South Korea H1 2018 (Draft)

Resultado de imagem para Kona vs Bolt

Bolt vs Kona

The South Korean market is on the fast track, having reached already 1.4% PEV share, mostly thanks to the increased availability (Finally!) of the Chevrolet Bolt, with the GM model delivering a record 1,621 units last month, or three times as much as it had during the whole 2017, and the arrival of the Hyundai Kona BEV, that delivered 1,076 units in June, so expect the share to grow even further, possibly ending at 2% this year, which would be a tremendous feat, given that in 2015, the Plug-in share was only 0.2%...

If this were to happen, would it be much to ask some 20% share by 2021?

With these two models breaking records by the hour, the previous driving force (Hyundai Ioniq Electric) in the market is losing relevance, and i wouldn't be surprised if it ended the year in Third...

A final mention to the #5 Twizy, that with 984 units so far, seems to have found success here.

H1 2018
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
Chevrolet Bolt 

Hyundai Kona EV
Kia Soul EV
Renault Samsung Twizy