Thursday, July 20, 2017

South Korea June 2017 (Draft)

Image result for Hyundai Ioniq Electric in South Korea

IONIQ and the rest 

After a long absence, the South Korean market is back to EV Sales, the headlining news is the disruptive effect that the arrival of the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, is having, pulling this year market share to a record 0.63%, up from 0.38% in the previous year and only 0.17% in 2015.

With the aforementioned Hyundai still production constrained (Not enough batteries from LG Chem), but with the perspective of more batteries available this year, registrations can only go up, so we can even see the market reach 1% share later in the year.

The following models are miles behind, but are also seeing their sales increase, with the Kia Soul EV managing to keep the Samsung SM3 ZE (Refresh needed?) behind it.

An intriguing addition to the market is the arrival of the Chevrolet Bolt, considering the 2017 production is already sold out, and there is still has a 2.000 orders waiting list to fill, it will be interesting to see if Chevrolet puts a real effort in the second half of 2017 and delivers its BEV model in enough volumes to allow the nameplate registrations to take off.

By the way, Chevrolet: Canada and Europe are in the same situation, how about relocating Bolt/Ampera-e production away from the USA and into markets where the Bolt actually makes sense? Unless this is all part of the "No one wants EV's" narrative...

PlModelJan-Jun 2017
1Hyundai Ioniq Electric3.010
2Kia Soul EV655
3
4
5

Renault Samsung SM3 ZE
Chevrolet Bolt
Renault Samsung Twizy
Others
404
251
106
513

TOTAL4.939

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Germany June 2017

Image result for Renault Zoe Germany

Has the market reached a tipping point?

It seems the incentives are finally helping out this market, with over 4.600 plug-in passenger cars registered last month in Germany, the market jumped 181% YoY and shattered the previous record, established last March (4.432).

With YTD sales now growing 115% and the Second Quarter alone jumping 166% YoY, it seems the German PEV market reached some kind of tipping point, from where the current PEV share of 1.25% can only climb higher, maybe hitting 1.75% by year end, which, considering we are talking about the largest auto market in Europe, it's a looot of plug-ins.

Looking at June Best Selling models, the Renault Zoe recovered the leadership, registering a best ever performance of 680 units (New all-time record for a single model in Germany), followed by the Audi A3 e-Tron (535 units, new personal best) and two BMW's, with the 225xe Active Tourer (338 deliveries, new pb. Do you see a trend here?...) ending in front of the i3 hot hatch (315).

Below these frequent Top 4 customers, we have a new/old face here, with the Second Generation Smart Fortwo ED showing up already in #5 in its first full sales month, with 231 units, the nameplate best score since October '14 (263, then). Something tells me the little city car is going to blow to pieces its all time record (311 units, way back in October '13) soon...

PlModel
Sales  
1Renault Zoe680
2Audi A3 e-Tron
535
3BMW 225xe A. Tourer
338
3
BMW i3 *
315
5
Smart Fortwo ED
231

Looking at the YTD ranking, plenty to talk about, as usual, with the Audi A3 e-Tron climbing to Second Place and the BMW 225xe Active Tourer rising to Fourth, being the main news, but the action didn't stopped there:.

- The VW Golf GTE continues to recover in the ranking, having climbed now to #10, closing in on its 2016 standing (Eighth);

- Another Volkswagen recovering ground is the all electric e-Golf, now in #14, with the 177 deliveries in June being its best performance in 23 months;

- Another BEV on the rise is the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, now at #19, expect it climb even further as the year advance, now that the Korean automaker is increasing the deliveries pace;

- Good performance from the BMW 530e, with 100 deliveries in June, the first time it reached three-digit perfromances, but the new, longer-ranged Porsche Panamera PHEV did even better, delivering 198(!) units last month, or more than it did in the whole year of 2016...Do we have a future success story in our hands?  

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (21%, down 2%) is on the lead, followed by Mercedes Audi and Volkswagen, all with 12% share.

PlGermanyJune YTD%'16 Pl
1
2
Renault Zoe
Audi A3 e-Tron
680
535
2.429
2.205
11
10
2
4
3
4
BMW i3 *
BMW 225xe Active Tour.
315
338
2.060
1.626
9
7
1
10
5
6
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
Tesla Model S
107
217
1.406
1.263
6
6
6
5
7Kia Soul EV10499147
8Volkswagen Passat GTE13982449
9
10
11
Mercedes GLC350e
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Tesla Model X
176
171
136
692
636
632
3
3
3
23
8
19
12
13
Mercedes C350e e)
Volkswagen e-Up!
74
81
584
568
3
3
15
17
14
15
16
17
Volkswagen e-Golf
Nissan Leaf
Mercedes B250e
Audi Q7 e-Tron
177
41
33
100
532
521
416
388
2
2
2
2
12
11
18
13
18Mercedes E350e
64
380232
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
25
27
27
29
30

Hyundai Ioniq Electric
BMW 530e
BMW 330e
Volvo XC90 T8
Smart Fortwo ED
Por. Panamera PHEV
Mercedes GLE500e
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Peugeot iOn
Porsche Cayenne PHEV
BMW i8
BMW 740e
Others
63
100
44
54
231
198
19
25
10
21
35
20
316
334
325
324
276
275
266
210
210
172
172
164
142
949
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
36
N/A
20
13
35
30
24
25
20
21
27
28

TOTAL
4.624
22.025
100


* - 219 Bev + 96 Rex 


Source: kba.de



Tesla Model S & Others


Pl
Model
June Sales  
1
Mercedes S-Class
505
2
BMW 7-Series
447
3
Porsche Panamera
435
4
Audi A8
261
5
Tesla Model S
217


As the Tesla Sports Sedan reaches historic high levels, it is ime to focus on the German flagship vessels, with the Mercedes S-Class registering 505 units last month and the BMW 7-Series 447, they are comfortably ahead of the Californian, that interestingly only registered 217 units, less than half of the 457 in the last peak month of March.

The Tesla Model 3 could have already some influence, but in my opinion, one big reason for this less stellar performance lies in another automaker...

The Second Generation Porsche Panamera PHEV registered 198 units in its first real  month on the market, or 46%(!) of all Panamera registrations....If these numbers are to continue regularly, the Porsche model can be the first to seriously dent the Model S sales, while at the same time allow the big Sports Sedan to outsell the BMW and Mercedes uber-klasse models.



Tesla Model X & Others


Pl
Model
June Sales  
1
Range Rover Sport
558
2
Jaguar F-Pace
391
3
Porsche Cayenne
322
4
BMW X6
175
5
Tesla Model X
136

The Tesla Sports SUV is starting to tickle its most direct competitors, even if numbers are far behind the podium bearers.

Are the 100-something sales the Model X top performance?

Monday, July 17, 2017

China June 2017

Image result for byd dynasty
BYD Dynasty Concept

BYD turns on Warp Speed

The Chinese market had more than 43.000 new EV's zooming the streets last month, with the market growing below expectations, at 16% YoY, this performance from China feels like when LeBron James scores 28 points in a NBA Finals game, it would be a great score for anyone else, but people expect more from the star of the team.

Anyway, the EV market share grew to 1.5%, already beating last year record (1.45%), expect that as the year progresses and sales expand, the Chinese PEV market to surpass the 2% share by year end.

This is still a highly protected market, where 93% of sales belong to domestic brands. Of the 7% left for foreign brands, 6% belong to Tesla, with the remaining 1% divided by all other auto makers.

In June the Zhidou D2 EV was once again the best-selling model, surpassing BAIC’s golden boy EC180 in the lead of the YTD ranking, while BYD has beaten the Manufacturers all-time sales record, by registering 11.198 units last month, stepping up the pace and surpassing the previous leader Beijing Auto in the race for the Best Selling manufacturer.


Here’s June Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

 Image result for zhidou d2
#1 – Zhidou D2 EV: Bare-basics city vehicle that doesn’t inspire anyone, but surely continues to be delivered in record quantities (4.714 units in June), probably thanks to big fleet deals. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 12 kWh battery, 120 kms range, 90 kms max.speed, all this for some 16.000€.

Image result for BYD Song DM
#2 – BYD Song PHEV: This is BYD’s “Model Y”, a VW Tiguan-sized SUV, here in plug-in hybrid version (The BEV has had its first units registered this month), in only its second full sales month, it registered 4.552 units, the second best score ever for a BYD model, with the Tang record of 5.503 units (Back in December ’15) probably being beaten this summer. Why is this model so disruptive? A) It is an SUV, and we know how they are sucking up sales everywhere (For some reason its sedan counterpart, the Qin, disappeared from the spotlight, expect something similar to happen somewhere in 2020 to the Tesla Model 3), and B) It has the same impressive specs that its larger brother Tang has (18.4 kWh battery, 70 kms range, 0-100 kms/h in 4.9 secs), but with a more affordable price (41.300 USD), which will make it the strongest candidate for the monthly Best Seller trophies in the coming months.

Image result for Chery eQ
#3 – Chery eQ EV: A consistent seller in China, the funky Chery eQ sold a record 3.466 units in June, this is one of my favorite Chinese urban EVs, for 22.000 Euro before incentives you get a decently equipped city car, with 22kWh battery and 200 kms range, with the only drawback being the weak engine (56 hp, 100 kms/h top speed), Add a bit more power to the engine and you could have a valuable competitor to the current crop of worldwide city EV's, as the Mitsubishi triplets are showing their age, the VW e-Up! is pricey, and the Smart Forfour ED…Well, it looks too goofy for my taste (What were Smart designers smoking when did this last generation?!?).

Image result for 2017 BYD e5
#4 – BYD e5: The Plain Jane BYD e5 sedan continues to impress, delivering another record performance (The third in a row), with 3.206 units last month. A favorite among taxi companies, along with its e6 older brother, the low key e5 actually has a lot going for it, spec-wise: 305 kms range from a 48 kWh battery and a healthy 218 hp, all for 230.000 Yuan (33.400$). A wolf in sheep’s clothing, isn’t it?

Image result for jac iev6s specs
#5 – JAC iEV6S: A vehicle in the intersection of the two hottest trends in China, Crossovers and EV’s, success seemed to escape it due to battery production constraints, but those days are now a thing of the past, having scored a record 3.001 deliveries last month, expect this Nissan Juke-sized Crossover to be a frequent sight here in the coming months, not only it has an attractive design, inside and out, but also decent specs: 114 hp, 251 kms range coming from a 33 kWh battery provided by Samsung.

Image result for BYD Yuan
BYD Yuan: The final piece in BYD's SUV trifecta should arrive in a few months


Year-to-Date Ranking – Zhidou D2 and BYD new Kings

The big news were of course the rise to #1 of the Tin Lizzie Zhidou D2 EV, with the BYD e5 finally reaching the podium, while the JAC iEV6S continues to climb the ladder, now jumping to #5.

But the sensation of the month was the BYD Song PHEV, shooting to #8 in only its second full month on the market, expect it in July to reach the Top 5 and maybe even the podium by the end of Summer.

A reference for both Teslas being present at the Top 20, by far the most successful foreign models, with the Third Best Selling overseas model being the BMW X1 PHEV, with an estimated 600 units delivered.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%, up 2%) is back at the Iron Throne, replacing the previous leader BAIC (17%, down 1%), with Warp Speed now turned on, expect BYD to distance itself from the competition at lightning speed.

In Third Place and without immediate pretensions to be the King of the Realm, we have  Zhidou, with 10% share, followed by SAIC (7%).

Pl
China
June
YTD
%
1
Zhidou D2 EV
4714
18693
10
2
BAIC EC180
2563
17939
10
3
BYD e5
3206
10826
6
4
SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV
1541
9205
5
5
JAC iEV6S
3001
8197
5
6
Geely Emgrand EV
478
7982
4
7
BYD Tang
1573
7502
4
8
BYD Song PHEV
4552
6838
4
9
Chery eQ
3466
6605
4
10
JMC E100
1153
6136
3
11
Changan Benni EV
1778
6064
3
12
Zotye E200
1568
5949
3
13
BAIC EU260
1333
5691
3
14
Kandi EV
315
4804
3
15
Tesla Model S e)
1600
4785
3
16
Tesla Model X e)
500
4514
3
17
BYD Qin EV300
593
4117
2
18
Zotye Cloud EV
1568
3687
2
19
JMC E200
759
3657
2
20
BAIC EX200
520
3577
2
Others
7110
32380

TOTAL
43891
179148



Published also in EVObsession and CleanTechnica