|Let the flood begin…|
Month 1 before the (TM3) Flood: Filling up the Tesla Model 3 dam
Over 22,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 33% increase YoY, with the 2018 count crossing over 100,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share at over 1.4%.
These results alone would already be a reason to be happy with the market performance, but Tesla spent the whole June in savings mode, so that it could only cross the 200,000 units threshold in July, originating a slight deliveries drop last month, but most importantly, over 10,000 units "in transit", as in stored-somewhere-&-waiting-for-July-to-be-delivered, so expect the Tesla (Model 3) Flood to happen this month, with over 10,000 units (20,000?) being delivered in one month, something that will set not only a new all-time record in the US-market, but possibly beating the current global record, currently in the hands of BAIC (15,719 units EC-Series, delivered last November in China)
But back at June is the US, the leader Tesla Model 3 won another Monthly Best Seller, possibly collecting all future Best Seller awards until the Model Y gets into volume production, while the Second Placed Toyota Prius Prime consolidated its runner-up status, and also the Best-Selling PHEV model, so it seems that the first two places of the podium are already given, with 6 months to go.
Looking elsewhere, the hot-selling Honda Clarity PHEV (#3 in June) climbed to #7, switching places the Nissan Leaf, that was down 9% YoY, to 1,367 units, despite the new generation now being in full swing. Is the rapidgate and other models denting the Japanese hachback sales?
Talking of other changes, the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (710 units, Year Best) was up to #12, while the BMW 330e also had a year best (225 units), allowing it to climb to #19.
Other noteworthy performance was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, scoring another Personal Best, with 390 deliveries, confirming the popularity of this plug-in SUV.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (35%, up 3%) keeps gobbling up share (Will it reach 50% this year?), while Chevrolet (12%, down 2%) is losing it almost just as fast, with Toyota (12%) closing in on the GM brand, while BMW is holding steady in Fourth, with 10%.
Tesla Model 3 & Others
Tesla Model 3
Looking at the midsize vehicles, in June the Tesla Model 3 was for the second month in a row the Best Selling nameplate, with over 5,800 deliveries, narrowly beating the Mercedes C-Class, with 5,742.
Also important to realize, is the fact that all the Model 3 competitors are witnessing drops of 20% or more YoY, reinforcing the idea that the Tesla nameplate is directly stealing sales to the class best sellers.
If YTD, it is (just) Third Placed, with deliveries expected to go into 5 digits next month, the Tesla midsizer will have the class leadership in the bag by next month, and keep it for a long, long time.
Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class, currently in the hands of the Toyota Camry, with 30,000 sales last month and 151,000 this year.
Given that the mainstream market is more price-sensitive, the Model 3 can only aspire to play in this league on a monthly basis, if the $35,000 Short Range version comes alive and is made on a large scale.
So, maybe in 2019? 2020?