Monday, November 30, 2020

Global Top 20 October 2020

 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação

Models: VW ID.3 and Wuling Mini EV shine in (near) Record month

After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has brought a hot plugin market, and October was no exception, after a record September, last month registrations were at near record levels, with 342.000 units, just 3.000 units below the previous month.

With plugin registrations going up 127%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, both technologies were hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 230.000 units, while PHEVs grew 131%, to a record 111.000 units.

This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +21% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks (Covid willing...) 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins. 

With the overall automotive market losing momentum, added to a near record month, the October PEV share stayed at a record 4.9% share (3.3% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.5% (2.4% BEV), which is a full 1% share above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing now at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 

The low tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, but the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a record 20.631 units last month, with the tiny EV coming close to the leader, this being the first time since January that anyone was close to the Tesla midsizer .

While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, Tesla's baby SUV had to make an effort to stay in front of the Volkswagen ID.3, with the new German EV losing its podium presence by just 18 units. Better luck in November?

The Wuling Mini EV was the Climber of the Month, jumping 4 positions, to 3rd, and with the continuing production ramp up, the Chinese EV will eventually catch the #2 Renault Zoe, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium.

Regarding other position changes, the Audi e-Tron climbed to #7, followed by GAC's Aion S, that was also up, to #8.

On the PHEV side, the Best Selling model in October was the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, scored 4.834 units, with the remaining podium positions last month being filled by two models outside this Top 20 which, funny enough, both came from the Mercedes stable, with the A250e (4.277 units) and the GLC300e/de (4.139). 

With the BMW 530e/Le and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV showing its wrinkles and the Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV suffering from battery suply problems, the VW plugin hybrid model is now the leader of the category and has the road open to win the 2020 Best Selling PHEV title.

On the second half of the table, the Baojun E-Series climbed two spots, to #13, thanks to a record performance of 5.919 units, Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumped three positions, to #17, with a record 6.269 registrations, while we have two models returning to the Top 20, the Chery eQ (re)joined the Top 20, in #19, and in #20 we now have the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that managed to return to the table, thanks to a record 3.440 units.

Finally, outside the Top 20,  models deserve a mention, with the #22 NIO ES6 and the #23 Li Xiang One looking to join the table soon, something that the hot VW ID.3 should be able to do next month, despite still being some 3,600 behind the #20 Volvo XC60 PHEV, which would make just 3 PHEVs in the table.

Manufacturers: SGMW shines 

Despite being in low tide mode, Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title and is in a different league, but immediately below it, there were plenty of record performances, 6 to be exact, with the most relevant coming from the SGMW joint venture (26.907 units), that allowed the City EV maker to jump 5 positions, to 6th, but also Mercedes, that registered 20.976 units, its 3rd 4th record score in a row(!), allowing the three-pointed star brand to climb to #5, and while the #4 BMW is too far ahead to be bothered by its arch rival, expect Mercedes to easily beat the Bavarian maker. 

In a different scale, young little NIO climbed to #19, having reached a record 5.055 deliveries last month, while Porsche(!) jumped two spots, to #17, a small feat for the high end brand, while Great Wall joined the table, in #18, with a record 8.115 registrations, now making 6 Chinese brands in the table.

And more could join soon, as outside the Top 20, the #22 Chery is rising fast and should replace Ford next month.

Looking at the ranking by OEMs, the VW Group won in October, with 47.000 registrations, followed by SAIC (43.000 units), while Tesla was relegated to 3rd.

SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.


  1. The Tesla numbers are strange. 10,000 Model 3 deliveries outside China in the ebb month are quite a lot -- I wonder where most of these happened?

    But Model Y delivering less than the previous month despite production still ramping is even more weird...

    1. This is mostly about the USA. We do not have official data there (who has?), but our local source is pretty sure of its numbers.

    2. It was also the case with the Model 3 in 2018 when it was only sold in North America, as it seems that Tesla always have the last month of each quarter inflated by the different timing of delivery between east coast and "last hour" deliveries in California which is still the biggest market for Tesla in the USA.
      Further more, I think last quarter there was a big delivery of Tesla Y in Canada with a ship going directly from San Francisco to Vancouver in the last month of the quarter.
      So, for the ramping up progress I think we should compare this October number for Model Y with July number which was only north 7.000, so the progress is real.

  2. And we got a BEV-only top 10!

    I wonder whether this will hold at the end of the year... If the Passat PHEV holds it pace, that seems unlikely -- but if it slows down again (as it did early this year), and/or some of the Chinese accelerate further into the end of the year (quite possible, historically), it might very well happen :-)

  3. Most interesting questions for next year: will Model Y already overtake Model 3? Will the Wuling go on to beat both of them? Where will the ID.4 stand compared to these?... (With European production only, it won't be able to come anywhere close -- but with significant Chinese capacity coming up as well, it might not be far...)

    1. The Wuling train is not slowing down this year...
      November: 33.094

    2. Interesting questions, on the Model 3/Y split, i think in the USA the Y will beat the 3, in China it will be the other way around, while in Europe it will depend on how things go with GigaBerlin, but if i had to bet my money, it would still go for the 3.

      So, all things considered, i think in 2021 the 3 will still beat the Y, with SUV overcoming the 3 in 2022, once Berlin has a full year of Y production.

      As for the Wuling, it is still in ramp up mode, so we still don't know how big this thing will be. 400k in 2021?

      Regarding the ID.4, it shouldn't come close to the aforementioned, but then again, it's not VW's prime intention to do so, as their target is to have a large family of models (Enyaq, ID.4, Q4 e-Tron...) in the same segment, to cater different tastes and wallets. Now, will that family of EVs beat the current leader Tesla Model 3 next year? Doubt it, but 2022 should be a different story...

    3. In Europe of course Model 3 deliveries will still beat Model Y, with Berlin only ramping in the second half of the year; and the ramp expected to be somewhat slow, with the new cell format and new body construction...

      (Unless Tesla decides to send some from Shanghai -- but I don't expect that.)

      I'm not so sure about China, though: rumour has it that the Model Y factory has a design capacity of 450,000 per year, versus the 250,000 for Model 3... Of course with the ramp only starting, actual production for that year will probably be 250,000 at most -- but that could be enough to beat Model 3 deliveries in China, assuming they keep sending some of the Model 3 production to Europe...

      I'm also not quite sure about the US: with Texas presumably only coming on line rather late in the year, it will depend mostly on how much Nevada/Fremont capacity Tesla is willing to switch over from Model 3 to Model Y production...

  4. Rogue companies like Honda, McLaren, Aston Martin, and Bosch published a fake report using some proxy PR company that BEVs should travel at least 50.000 miles / 80.000 km to become carbon neutral with ICE.

    That has been debunked and proven false.

    These companies will feel the heat as the sales of PEVs keep rising beyond the 5% share.

    1. Even if it was true, cars generally last a lot more than 80,000 km...

  5. Renault Zoe sales cross 250.000 mark while Tesla Model Y cross 50.000 mark.
    Global YTD sales of 2.126.560 is little short of 2019 sales of 2.194.178 by 68.000 units.
    Without Covid, this could have gone much higher.

  6. Does e-tron on global models also include e-tron Sportback. Those are for at least in Europe reported as different models but you can argue.

  7. Interesting to see that even all the new comers and all European compact EV benefiting from large subsides, last year at the same date, Tesla represented 16% of all plug-in cars sales this year so far with some 273.000 cars sold and now it is at 17% with 352.000 cars sold...with the Model 3 dropped from 13% of total market share to 12% but with absolute numbers that increased between 2019 and now from 221.000 to 261.000!
    So ,so far, good progress for overall plug-in cars market in the world and good progress also for Tesla that, so far, didn't lose market share globally.

  8. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 01, 2020

    If I a correct. Sales in 2020-10.
    China 147.3k
    Europ 146.6k
    sub 294k

    world 341.5k

    only a meager 47.5k

    This can't be correct. But it is correct? The markets outside China and Europ are just not buying modern cars?

    1. And most of it is the USA, and because Tesla was in low-tide mode, sales suffered.

  9. 341531 is a fantastic # in a 1st month of quarter.
    Top-3 months are
    2020-09: 345.519
    2020-10: 341.531
    2018-12: 286.367
    BEVs grab Top-10 in 2020-10. Soon they may extend to Top-12 if E-Series and Black Cat charge ahead though it may be not be possible this year.

  10. Rolling twelve months near on 2.6 million!
    Last 4 months Sales rate annualised 3.5million!

  11. Very interesting and informative comments.
    Thanks to everyone.

  12. As more and more competition is entering the markets, Tesla feels already the heat and European sales came significantly down YTD. On a daily basis the first Norwegian sales for December are not much higher than for eTron, Polestar, ID3, even as December is the strong month for Tesla. YTD Norwegian Tesla sales are down 3 fold for Model3, and 10 fold for Model X and S from last year.

    1. Yeah right, going from 65,700 to 58,000 in the middle of a pandemic is totally "significant"...

    2. Reserve your "enthusiasm" please and comment on facts: Model 3 are down 4 fold in Norway this year in YTD, but the Model X and S are only down 3,5 fold and 4 fold respectively, not ten fold as you would wish...

  13. 7700 less Teslas delivered is significant, it amounts to TWO full car carriers, at a time EV sales are increasing to the roof.
    The pandemic isn`t the decisive factor, more choice; "competition" is the decisive factor, fact.

    1. And since then does looking at one separate month give a clear view of a manufacturers sales and production? Last quarter was by far the best quarter they have ever done and they believe they can do even better this quarter. For what I can see Tesla have an higher marketshare over the first ten month compare to last year wish means they are growing faster then overall market. How can that possible be bad?

    2. In case you haven't noticed, EV sales are increasing pretty much exclusively from new (or new generation) models. Tesla essentially repeating the debut year's numbers with the same model is a very good result -- and in line with what I predicted at the beginning of this year... Despite the unforeseen pandemic.

    3. Sure competition is a factor but all have to seen with a grain of salt and not crying out loud...or soon we will see @Heinrich whinnying about VW going bankrupt because the ID3 sales in Norway were down 2,5 fold in November to October numbers...:)

  14. Im a runoob about EVs, is PEV&PHEV the same? means plug-in electric vehicles?

    1. PEV - plugin electric vehicle (BEV+PHEV).

      PHEV - plugin hybrid electric vehicle.

      EV - electric vehicle (BEV+PHEV+FCEV)

    2. Fuel cell vehicles aren't EVs any more than plug-less combustion hybrids. (HEVs.) Neither can use electricity directly as a source of energy.

      (Unless they have a plug, in which case they are like PHEV -- except that no such models are currently on the market as far as I'm aware?...)

  15. Hey José, what are your thoughts on putting some of this data in a Google Sheet? Been putting China PEV and Norway PEV/PHEV/hybrid/diesel/gas market share numbers into this one for some time now: