Saturday, December 5, 2020

Sweden November 2020

37% Share!

The local plugin market is on fire, jumping 141% YoY, to 10.280 registrations, its second third record performance in a row, with last month scoring a record 37% share for plugins (10% BEV), helped by a falling (-13% YoY) overall market, and pulling the 2020 PEV share to 33% (9% BEV). 

This time both technologies grew at similar pace, with PHEVs jumping 134% last month, to 7.571 units, while BEVs (+163%) had 2.709 registrations, with the split in this year sales remaining at 28% for BEVs and 72% PHEVs. 

With plugin hybrids now representing 24% of the total market, maybe now's the time to reduce incentives for PHEVs? Another way, would be to set a minimum electric range for a PHEV to be eligible for subsidies...What do you think?

Looking at the remaining fuels, last month, HEVs clocked 13% share, versus 8% a year ago, while petrol lost 14% market share(!), now at 31%, while diesel was even worse, down 15% in share, to just 16%.  

And to think diesel has 72% share in 2012, at this pace, diesel will be död in Sweden by 2022...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, in November the VW ID.3 was a party crasher, it hasn't won the Best Seller trophy, losing to the Volvo XC60 PHEV by just 18 units, but its record 773 units were enough to spoil another 1-2 win for Volvo, as the new German model outsold the Volvo S/V60 PHEV siblings by 59 units. 

Funny enough, last month, the ID.3 has also outsold its ICE sibling, the once almighty VW Golf (742 units)....A sign of the times?

Highlighting Volkswagen's positive month, the VW Passat GTE was #4, while the last place in this Top 5 went for the BMW 330e, that thanks to its new station wagon body, a must have in order to succeed in Sweden, scored a record 447 registrations last month.

Another proof of the popularity of station wagons in Sweden is the fact that 4 out of these 5 models are available in Wagon body...Yes, i know the Volvo XC60 PHEV is an SUV, but let's face it, models like the XC60 are nothing more than raised (and heavier, and pricier, and less fuel efficient...) station wagons.

Volvo XC60 PHEV 
Volvo S/V60 PHEV
VW Passat GTE
BMW 330e

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with the only position change happening in the Top 10 being the Volvo XC40 PHEV jumping to #8, with the Belgian-Swede looking to climb a couple more positions in the last two stages of this year race.

On the second half of the table we have the Audi e-Tron climbing one position, to #13, at the expense of Volvo's S/V90 PHEV twins, with the Big Audi becoming the full size category new leader. 

But the big news is the VW ID.3 joining the Top 20 in #17, and expect it to jump further positions in the next two months, maybe joining the Top 10 at the end of the year.

There were also other good news on the BEV side, with the #16 Nissan Leaf registering its best result in 21 months, with 230 units, proving once again that deep discounts do wonders for a model career...

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the ramp up of Mercedes, with 3 models (E300e/de - 195 units; GLE350e/de - 153; EQC - 119) scoring record deliveries, with the first of them climibng to #23 and on its way to the Top 20, while the last two have beaten their personal best in November, by the third time in a row...#MercedesIsRising. 

But it's not only about the German maker, as there are other models shining, like the Audi A6 PHEV (131 units), or the BMW X1 PHEV (183), while two other compact SUVs are ramping up deliveries, with the Toyota RAV4 PHEV now at over 300 deliveries, while the fresh Volvo XC40 EV had 85 deliveries in November.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo is comfortably in the lead, with 23% share (down 1%), thanks to the success of its PHEV lineup, while Kia (17%, down 2%) keeps the 2nd place, and the rising Volkswagen (14%, up 1%) closes the podium, well ahead of Tesla (5%).


  1. @José "next two months? "Last two stages"? Seems 2021 is sneaking up on you unawares ;-)

    1. True, lol.

      The last thing we needed was 2020 to have 13 months, but come to think of it, it would be fitting with the rest of the year... :P

  2. PHEVs are more climate friendly then long range BEVs and should receive equal incentives.

    A much cheaper technology would be a BEV with low range battery but with cumbustion engine for range extension.
    Like BMW i3 REX or coming Mazda MX-30 withe range extender.

    But the range extender needs decent power not like the i3.

    Then the incentives could be reduced.

    Even Tesla should be able to add a range extender to become more climate friendly.

    1. Here in Sweden there is many that because of the incentive get an PHEV as a company car or if you have your own company takes out a PHEV and then never bother to charge it. There is a lot of test done that shows that if you don't charge a PHEV they use more fuel then the normal car. And you are also driving around with a battery, electric motor and more that barely never get used. What is the climate advantage for that?

    2. Nonsense. PHEVs are emission regulations cheating devices. There are two Volvo's XC90 PHEVs just in front of apartment where i live. Never plugged, not even at work or elsewhere. I know cause i asked owners...

    3. As others already pointed out, in reality subsided PHEVs see very little EV use (proven in multiple studies), possibly making them worse than regular combustion cars. That alone is a reason why PHEVs do *not* deserve large subsidies.

      But even when used properly, the benefit over long-range BEVs is very questionable. Modern battery production isn't nearly as bad as detractors like to claim (based on long debunked completely wrong numbers); while combustion engines are actually much worse, when using real fuel consumption (not rosy WLTP numbers), and taking into account emissions from extracting, processing, and transporting the fuel.

      Even in production, adding a complete combustion power train also costs significant emissions; adds a lot of weight to lug around; and isn't exactly cheap -- the benefits over larger batteries are small, if any. (PHEVs only tend to be cheaper because they are generally low-effort conversions of existing mass-produced combustion models, while BEVs aren't yet seeing the same mass production benefits... But that's just a matter of time.)

      And last but not least, let's not forget that any combustion engine, including those in PHEVs, will keep emitting CO2, toxic fumes, and noise for the next 20 years.

    4. Appreciate nobody opposed my suggestion for REX vehicles as the most efficient solution. No complicated driver train and no big battery which produces 10tons of Co2 before being used.

      And for your comfort:
      Even if business people don't use PHEVs properly in the first year, when these vehicles are sold after 1 year the private owners surely will use the electric motor as much as possible.
      Therefore after 20 years of use the PHEVs have contributed nicely to CO2 reduction.

    5. "EREV" is just a fancy name for a series PHEV -- I obviously included them when talking about PHEVs, and pretty much everything I said applies.

      And I'm pretty sure the studies of real-world PHEV usage aren't just looking at the first year... I'm not going to give them a pass just because of some speculation that they *might* end up better later on.

      (Not least because the first owner tends to put on a lot more miles than later ones.)

  3. We need to develop micromobility. We need light electric vehicles, 200-400 kg, for two or four people, then the batteries are smaller and lithium would be enough for everyone. Then the Paris agreement can be implemented. Such cars are safe in the city and it is more pleasant to drive them at low speeds of 30-40 km / h in the city. But it is not profitable for automakers, it is not profitable for them to make simple cars, they will simply go bankrupt. Throughout the history of the automotive industry, they enlarged the car, complicated the design. In order to increase their sales, they cannot sell two cars to one person, then they make one car in the size and price of two cars, even now in Europe they are introducing a fashion for SUVs. It should stop once.

    1. First of all, it's not possible to make a vehicle weighing 200 kg or 400 kg for four people that offers the same safety as a normal car, even at city speeds.

      Aside from that, car makers have very limited influence on what vehicles people want to buy. Attempts to make dedicated city cars generally fail, because nobody wants to buy a city-only car, when they'd still need another vehicle for longer trips...

      I expect this to change though to some degree when autonomy enables more widespread ride hailing, where you can choose the appropriate vehicle for each trip.

    2. You are right! Good thing is that at least in China this is partly happening - look at the current best seller. But the culprit is also with the consumers buying into the OEM stories.

      In any case I very much hope to see more of those micro cars in Europe soon. The Dacia is a start, but imagine they would offer the Wuling or one of the Cats here with current incentive level!

    3. @Artyom
      Thank you for your suggestion.
      I suggest before a new class of tiny 4 person cars without those garbage systems like lane assist...
      But to keep traffic running they should be capable of 60 or even 80km/h.
      And they should be allowed for young people at 15 or 16 especially in Corona times.
      Something between Dacia Spring and Citroën Ami.

  4. No PHEVs with a rabge less than 100 km at least should have an incentive.
    The first cars for which need ICE should be forbidden in EU, would be the A and B class as both are used as city cars in 90% of the cases.
    A good idea for the EU would be for example:
    2022 - ban of diesel cars - Class A
    2024 - ban of petrol cars - Class A
    2026 - ban of diesel cars - Class B
    2028 - ban of petrol cars - Class B

    For the cars in class D and above there is needed an increased range compared to the current technologies, which chould be achieved within the next 5 years.

    1. I completely disagree.
      Wealthy people can afford to pay premiums.

      Not only in the south of Europe many families use A-Class vehicles as a family car. Most of of the time second hand.

      How could they afford to replace a broken battery?

      Therefore start with the big cars first.
      Otherwise mobility is stolen from the majority of people and given exclusively to the wealthy.

    2. While I don't have hard data, from what I have seen, I doubt there is a meaningful number of people who have *any* car only for city use.

      Having said that, I have seen claims that small combustion cars will effectively be banned in the EU, because upcoming emission mandates are not feasible to fulfil with small engines...

    3. Interestingly, one of the fastest electrified segments are city cars.

    4. @Antrik

      Sadly you are right that small ice will be effectively banned.

      I think it is the biggest hidden scandal in Europe as people with small budget are deprived of mobility.
      I.e by forcing lane assist on city cars.

      EV city cars make most sense not only for city but also for commuting.
      And of course incentives compensate a big chunk of the cost. Most families will find it attractive to have an EV city car as a second vehicle. For larger trips they will use their ICE.

    5. People with a small budget don't buy new cars.

    6. @Koogle - You have just described my case :-)

  5. the next two months
    whooooa Jose!!! Your funptastic 2020 year has 13 months???
    Good LUCK