Thursday, November 2, 2017

Auotomotive Groups - September 2017

Image result for Roewe eRX5
SAIC joins the Top 10, mostly thanks to this model

Automotive Group 
Units % of sales
BYD Group71.0709
BMW Group
Geely Gr. (w / Zhidou)
Volkswagen Group46.7306
General Motors37.3875

Looking at sales by automotive groups, the Renault-Nissan Alliance, now reinforced with Mitsubishi, is unsurprisingly in the Pole Position, but its share has dropped 2%, to 12% share, no doubt result of the Nissan Leaf generation change, while Tesla remained in Second Place, with a BYD on full charge climbing to Third, at the expense of the BMW Group, down to Fourth.

The 2017 Best Selling OEM seems to be in the hands of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi trifecta, which has  successfully defending its lead over Tesla and BYD, with both OEMs struggling with production constraints.

As for the remaining players, rising star SAIC climbed to Tenth, meaning there are four Chinese OEMs (BYD; BAIC, Geely and SAIC) in the Top 10,  and i would't be surprised if it climbed a couple of positions in the future, as their models are possibly the best value for money PEVs in China.

Looking into 2018, the Renault-Nissan Alliance will receive an important reinforcement, with the new Leaf, possibly adding some 100k-120k units to the current tally, possibly ending the year at 220-250k units.

Tesla has its Model 3 to deliver en masse, a while ago i had predicted some 300k Model 3 deliveries next year, but considering the current state of the Tesla Nation, i believe its best to cut that to 250.000 units, adding some 100k from the Model S & X, and we have Tesla delivering around 350.000 units next year, which would make it the Best Selling OEM of 2018, a first for the Californian.

BYD is set to deliver some 110.000 units this year, a giant setback over the expected 200k for this year. So for 2018, it is complicated to forecast a number, especially because of their production ramp up issues, but i would say that it will be in the 175.000 units ballpark, a number that could put its podium position threatened by a fast growing BAIC.

As for the remaining OEMs, BMW and Geely will try to follow the pace of the aforementioned two, ending at around 150k, while the rest of the competition will be happy to reach 100.000 deliveries in one year.

1 comment:

  1. BYD is very hard to predict but I would probably go 150,000...
    I see BYD getting squeezed from all sides becasue they tried going luxury and performance but luxury and performance type people would rather buy a BMW or Tesla etc...
    As much as I like BYD I see their auto group going in too many different directions with ICE, plugin hybrids and BEVs but they dont have the production volume (their ICE sales that are 2/3s their volume keep going down) to do that as even companies 10 times their size dont make all their models with three different powertrains...
    What is BYD going to do when VWs (and others) JV starts producing BEVs in mass that VW has to sell to meet Chinas quotas...
    Without a refocusing on who and what their auto companies does I see bad times ahead for BYDs auto division...