Thursday, February 4, 2021

2020 Sales by OEM

 

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:



PHEV+BEV



If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla ended the year ahead, with 16% share, 1% less than a year ago, which nevertheless is still a small feat all by itself, considering the intensive diversification process that the EV niche is now having, could have eroded more significantly its market share.

Tesla's current domination is however being threatened by the Volkswagen Group, that jumped from 6th in 2019 to the current 2nd spot, with its share jumping from 6% in 2019, to the current 13%. 

More importantly, the German conglomerate reduced its distance to the leader from 227.000 units in 2019 (368k vs 141k), to the current 78.000...Inclusively, the VW Group outsold Tesla in the last quarter of the year, by registering some 191.000 units, while the Californian maker had some 183.000 deliveries.

Will this mean that VW will beat Tesla in 2021? I think it will be closer than this year, but i believe Tesla will still have the upper hand, but for 2022...All bets are on.

In 3rd place we now have Shanghai Auto, that shooted from #7 in 2019, to the Bronze medal, having seen its share jump from 6% last year to the current 9%.

But unlike Volkswagen, that had been stable at the runner-up spot since the beggining of the year, by the end of Q3 2020, the Chinese Group was still outside the Top 5, but thanks to an amazing Q4, where it had an incredible 162.000 units, it jumped to the last place of the podium, this result was much due to the thundering success of the Wuling Mini EV, that was responsible for 44% of all of SAIC's registrations. If things go on like this for the Shanghai maker in 2021, then it could become a sort of dark horse and get in the way of the much announced Tesla vs Volkswagen duel. 

Regardless of what will happen in 2021, the big gainers of 2020 were the Volkswagen Group and SAIC, that counted together, gained 10% share this year.

Both the #4 Renault-Nissan Alliance and the #5 BMW Group lost 1% share regarding last year, but while the German OEM repeated the 5th spot of 2019, the Alliance lost one spot regarding the previous year, unable to resist the rise of SAIC.

Regarding the Q3 2020 ranking, we witness the disappearance of the Hyundai-Kia Group, that dropped from #4 then, to #6, despite record sales.



BEV



Looking only at BEVs, Tesla repeated the 2019 title, with 23% share, the same score it had in the previous year, a small feat considering the current diversification process.

The Silver medal changed hands a few times this year, first we had the Renault Nissan Alliance in the runner-up spot, but on Q3 the VW Group took Silver, only to lose the 2nd spot on the last quarter of the year to SAIC, that thanks to the success of its Wuling Mini EV, it came out of the Top 5 into #3 in Q3, having surpassed the German conglomerate in the last quarter.

Still, it was a positive year for the Volkswagen Group, as it jumped from 6th in 2019, with just 5% share, to the last place of the podium, with 11% share.

Same story for SAIC, that jumped from #5 in 2019, with 6% share, to the runner-up spot, with 11% share, confirming these two Automotive Groups (SAIC and VW Group) as the winners of the year, as these two counted together earned 11% share in 2020, and the 22% of both come close to the 23% of the leader Tesla.

The Renault-Nissan Alliance was #4, with 8% share, which, funny enough, are exactly the same scores that the Alliance had in 2019.

The same can't be said regarding BYD, that was down from #3 and 9% share in 2019, to the current 5th spot and just 6%, although the Chinese Group has been recovering lately, climbing to #5 in the last quarter of the year.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while BYD replaces it.

27 comments:

  1. VW Group said it intends to sell 600,000 BEVs in 2021.
    They did not announce Target for PHEVs.
    As a group Stellantis has a chance to beat Renault.
    If Dacia Spring is late.

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    1. DoggydogworldFebruary 04, 2021

      VW Group has a long history of missing targets. 300k BEV target in 2018, actual <100k. 440k target in 2020, actual 230k. VW Brand just said they "hope" to sell over 100k ID4s in 2021. That's their global mainstream BEV, I don't see how they get to 650k BEVs with such a weak ID4 goal.

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    2. @Doggydogworld

      Just read ID4 will only be shipped in March. In the US in summer (delayed again?)
      Ford mach-e also starting deliveries.

      Looks like everyone wants to have good numbers in March.

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    3. Keep in mind that VW has many brands... Even if each individually only gets some 100,000, that adds up to quite a lot. Is 600,000 realistic? I don't know... But between the two German multi-brand MEB plants, the separate Skoda plant, the two Chinese joint-venture plants, as well as the separate plants for the other platforms (e-tron, Taycan / e-tron GT), I think it might be possible -- at least in terms of production. Sales will be another matter...

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    4. DoggydogworldFebruary 05, 2021

      @antrik - right, factory capacity is not the issue. They'll sell 300k+ BEVs plus a ton of PHEVs in Europe this year. ID3/ID4/Enyaq/el-Born/eTron/Taycan/etc. No single model has to break 100k.

      But China is all ID4 plus a handful of eTrons and Taycans and also-rans like e-Lavida. They slashed their China BEV target by a factor of 4 or so in 2020, and appear to be doing it again for 2021. I don't know why -- Tesla seems to have no problem selling 3/Y even with much higher prices.

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    5. Tesla vehicles are superior in many regards, and people are willing to pay a premium for them. VW's EVs on the other hand don't really offer anything fundamentally better than much cheaper Chinese brands... At least thus far. The new MEB-based generation might do better in terms of desirability and pricing -- question is whether it's enough to compete with the domestic makers?

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    6. I agree that VW's EV sales will be dominated by Europe this year as well... However, between all brands and models, I think it could add up to more than 300,000 BEVs?...

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    7. DoggydogworldFebruary 06, 2021

      @Antrik, why are VWs inferior to Model 3/Y in China but not in Europe? I haven't driven ID4 yet, but reviews (even from Tesla owners) say the VW is quieter and rides better than 3/Y. A lot of buyers value that more than 0-60. And Tesla's EPA range advantage vanishes in real world side by side tests. Then you have Tesla's "legendary" service....

      Again, it seems odd that VW Group can dominate Europe and not even be in the running in China. They sell the same number of ICE cars in each place.

      I would have said 400k+ BEVs in Europe this year, but the 67k ID4 target reset my expectations. Europe is almost half PHEV -- maybe VW feels they've become too BEV-heavy?

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    8. There are reasons why Tesla dominates customer satisfaction surveys... People are raving about how fun the cars are to drive, every single day, even after months; how great the infotainment is, the OTA updates, and the digital experience in general; and so on. I don't see anyone raving like that about the VWs... Tesla just offers a more well-rounded EV experience. Take charging rates for example: making the Tesla's way more convenient on longer trips.

      When talking about "dominance", we need to look at individual segments. Model 3 selling almost 100,000 per year in Europe, in a rather niche segment (premium sedan without even a wagon option), without local production, is frankly amazing. Locally produced Model Y should sell *well* into the six figures. Probably not quite as much as VW -- but surely in a similar ballpark... Despite VW's more mainstream offerings theoretically having a much larger addressable market.

      It absolutely doesn't follow that VW's BEVs should have a similar position in China as their combustion cars. Chinese makers have been struggling for decades to catch up with combustion cars from global makers. While the foreigners are more expensive, they are decidedly better. Not so with EVs: Chinese makers are actually ahead. While Model 3 stands out enough even in China, the global legacy brands are just more expensive than domestic EVs, without really being superior.

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    9. As for VW's conservative goals in Europe: keep in mind that these are still largely driven by emission rules. VW (just like other legacy makers) doesn't need to grow EV sales by more than roughly half in order to meet 2021 requirements -- so they aren't planning on it...

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  2. Great job congratulations Josè.. where can i find OEM sales VW Grouo PEV - BEV 2019? I would like to calculate the growth. thank you ;)

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    1. Just go look in the archive to the right, it's right there pretty much exactly a year ago: https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2020/02/2019-sales-by-oem.html

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    2. WV group sold 75K BEV in 2019, VW group is up 214% in 2020.

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  3. Interesting!
    Do you have any overview of the EV share 2020 by country?
    I love your monthly updates but you do not always cover every country. But at the end of each year I think it would be nice to see how each country (the countries you usually cover) has developed in a year over year comparison

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    1. thats great. A statistic that shows the annual performance and development for all countries actually covers it all. Obviously, a monthly stats per country is much more detailed but I also guess its a heck of job to do all that. Thanks for all the great work. Its super interesting

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. What happened to BAIC?
    2019 it was Brand`s #3 and OEM`s #4 - and 2020 it disappeared from both lists completely??

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    1. BAIC in 2020 fell into the abyss, having registered only 37k units...

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  6. Wow! Are you talking about brand or OEM?

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  7. Excellent data, thank you. Some comments. 1) I think you ought to add Mitsubishi to the Nissan-Renault-Group. 2) Using this I calculate a 30.4% fraction of GWh taken by TSLA at an avge of 69kWh/vehicle, with a 22% share of market trevenues. Since Tesla deployed 1.968 GWh of storage only 3% of Tesla's cell consumption is going into storage during 2020.3) by comparison VAG Gp is taking 16% of global vehicle cells, Re+N+M are taking 8%, Hyundai+Kia 7.5% and BYD 8.3 (in their case there may be more, but this is what is going into their own vehicles).

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    1. Mitsubishi is included in the count I believe, even if not explicitly mentioned...

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  8. Sorry, 5.4% to storage, duh :)

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  9. CoconutshaverFebruary 05, 2021

    Another year with great numbers. And thanks to you, José, we are well informed again. It does make quite an effort to sum up all the figures and write nice-to-read reports month after month. While you don't get payed for. Or almost not, regarding those little banners ;-) So, thanks again for your work and time. Im excited about 2021

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  10. First Tesla shipment of the year to Europe arrives today!

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  11. It is still early in the quarter, but looks like VW will again be the world's largest plug-in maker. If the trend holds throughout Q1 VW will hold that title for 6 months in a row.

    For 2022 I am expecting Renault-Nissan to take the lead again. Of all the conglomerates they seem to have the most developed world-wide EV sales strategy. Their mid-size models will make it in wealthy countries, while the Spring platform will do it in Asia and South America.

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    1. The "Spring" platform -- in the form of the Renault K-ZE, Venucia e30, and Aeolus EX1 -- has been available in Asia (specifically in China) for more than a year now... And has been a huge flop thus far.

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