I. Big Eight
Let's see how the Big Eight EV Markets fared in 2020:
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First foreigner to win the trophy, but the Wuling Mini EV was closing in and is the favorite for the 2021 title;
* 1.3 million units - After a negative first half of the year, the market rebounded in the second half and ended with a 9% growth regarding 2019. And the Market Share reached 6.3%, a new record.
* Renault Zoe #1 - The French hatchback took another Trophy, its 3rd in a row, but it should be its last, as the VW ID.3 had a strong end of the year and should take the 2021 trophy.
* 394.000 sales - With an amazing 270% growth in 2020, the German market has surpassed the US market and became the 2nd largest in the World, thanks to an amazing 14% share, placing it firmly in the Disruption Zone...So for 2021, do i hear 20%-plus shares?
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - In Tesla-land, it was another title (and last?) for the sports sedan, but its Tesla Model Y sibling is coming closer and should surpass it in 2021;
* 328.000 units - A slight 4% increase over the 2019 result, allowing the market share to reach 2.3%...So a lot of work to do. Fortunately there is a new, more EV-friendly, Administration in power, which added to better model availability from Legacy OEMs, we should finally see significant growth (50% YoY?), helping Tesla, that currently has over 50% of the market, in the hard task of bringing EVs into the US market mainstream.
* Renault Zoe #1 - How could it be otherwise? Especially considering the underwhelming performances of its arch-rival Peugeot 208 EV...
* 186.000 units - With sales jumping a stunning 202%, in a context of a falling overall market, France surged from 7th in 2019 to become the 4th largest EV market in the World in 2020, with the market share ending at a record 11%, a far cry from the 3% of the previous year, allowing it to join the Disruption Zone. Will we see it reach 20% by the end of 2021?
* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Veni, Vidi, Vici. After storming through the British market in 2019, the Sports Sedan consolidated its leadership in 2020, with no clear opposition (VW ID.3?) in sight.
* 175.000 units - Another market on the fast lane, up 135% regarding 2019, achieving a record 10%, up from 3.5% in 2019. So...another market ready for the Disruption Zone? Say, 15-20% share in 2021?
* Audi e-Tron #1 - The unexpected happened in the most electrified market in the World, with the high end Audi e-Tron winning in Norway, beating the Tesla Model 3, winner in 2019! The 2021 race should be even more interesting, with Volkswagen looking to place two horses (ID.3 and ID.4) in the race for the leadership...
* 106.000 units - With plugin sales already being the largest volume of the overall market (54% BEVs, 20% PHEVs), one can't expect surging sales, but still, sales were up 33% in 2020, so expect them to continue taking share from the remaining powertrains, albeit more slowly from now on. With this in mid, i expect 80%-plus market shares during 2021. And 90%-plus in 2022?...
* Volvo S/V60 PHEV #1 - In one of the PHEV capitals of the EV World, we have two Volvo plugin hybrids in the top two positions, securing a 1-2 win for the local maker, followed by 3 other PHEVs, while the Best Selling BEV was only #6, with the Tesla Model 3 selling half of the leaders Volvo S/V60 PHEV.
* 94.000 units - What can i say, another European market firmly in the Disruption Zone. With doubling sales and some 35% share in 2020, tripling the 2019 share (11% then), this is what happens when markets get disrupted. But with fiscal changes happening soon, one wonders what will happen next...
* VW ID.3 #1 - In one of the most dramatic twists of 2020, the recently landed VW ID.3 took the crown in the last month of the year from the
head ceiling of the Kia Niro EV (first) and Tesla Model 3 (second);
* 89.000 units - Far from the surging sales of other European countries, this BEV-friendly market market nevertheless grew a healthy 34%, allowing it to reach 25% share in 2020, a steady growth over the 15% of 2019 and the 6% of 2018. Will we see it reach 35% share by the end of 2021?
II. Engines of Growth
* By growth rates
In markets with some volume, say 1.000 units in 2019, the most impressive growth rates came from the Czech Republic (+316%, to 5.239 units, mostly thanks to Skoda), Taiwan (+308%, to 6.610 units, mostly thanks to Tesla), followed by Germany (+270%), Denmark (+249%, 32.522 units, mostly thanks to the...Ford Kuga PHEV - yes, that one, apparently Danes had some sort of crush over the Ford SUV...), and Italy (+248%).
Final references to the 440% growth rate of India, sure, sales are still low (little over 4.000 units), but considering the size of the market, the potential is huuuge...and also the surging sales in the UAE (up 7-fold) and Saudi Arabia (up 10-fold), sure, the starting base was really small (low hundreds), but the fact that these markets are Going EV, says a lot about the current momentum...
* By Volume
Growth rates are important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case it wasn't China making the headlines, as the 103.000 more units being sold in 2020 than in the previous year weren't enough to beat the 285.000 units(!!!) that Germany added to its market in 2020...
Others have also progressed greatly, like France (124k more, to 186k) or the UK (175k vs 75k), while Sweden (+54k) also added a large chunk of volume to its tally.