Sunday, February 28, 2021

Global Top 20 January 2021

Models: Wuling Mini EV new #1 in hot market

Registrations were up 112% YoY in January, to over 321,000 units, marking the 4th straight month with doubling sales, with China's market being the main drive for growth.

Sharewise, 2021 started with 5% share, already above last year final mark (4%), so we could end this this year at around 7-8%, which would mean that the global automotive market would reach the Disruption Zone already in 2022...

Last month, BEVs jumped 132% YoY, while PHEVs grew 80%, mostly thanks to the BEV-friendly Chinese market, that represented 54% of all global sales in January. 

With the current surge in China, while 12 months ago we only had 2 Chinese EVs in the table, we now have 9 representatives in the Top 13 spots!

And the most amazing of them all was the little Wuling Mini EV, that thanks to another record performance (its 7th in a row), and after several runner-up spots behind the Tesla Model 3, it has finally beaten the sports sedan, winning its first monthly Best Seller trophy on a Global level.

As i previously mentioned in the China article, what started as a credits compliance model, is becoming a major disruptor in China, and SAIC might have found the Holy Grail of City EVs. And its success begs the question: When will we start to see it outside its native market? I mean, both SAIC, through MG, and GM, are well established across the world...

But despite losing the models leadership, the Californian maker actually had a good result coming from the Model Y, that was 3rd last month, with Tesla placing two models in the podium.  

(Just) Outside the podium we have the full size BYD Han EV, that lost the 3rd spot by just 300 units, although if we were to add the 2.805 units of the Han PHEV, BYD's flagship would be the Bronze medalist...Better luck next time? 

The BYD Han EV leads a pack of 6 Chinese EVs, between #4 and #9, 3 of them being small EVs, while the other two are the Li Xiang One barge, in 8th, which is the highest placed model of the Chinese startups, and also the leader of the PHEV category, and the GAC Aion S sedan, that last month scored its best result in over a year. 

The best representative of the Legacy OEMs were the #10 BMW 530e/Le and #11 BMW X3 PHEV, that that helped by their Chinese volumes, have managed to keep the pace with the best selling Chinese EVs. 

A mention to SAIC's models in the table, with the small Roewe Clever EV, in #9 with 5.176 units, and the #12 Roewe eRX5 PHEV, with 3.779 units, both hitting record results, highlighting the good moment of the Shanghai maker.

Another model scoring a record result was the Xpeng P7, that had 3.710 units last month, just beating the once leader Nissan Leaf, that started the year in #14.

The BMW 330e was 20th, thus making 3 BMW's in the Top 20, the only maker with such a score.

Outside the Top 20, a reference for the #21 Changan Benni EV (3.240 units), with its new generation pulling the city EV to record results, and a Top 20 spot is right around the corner.

Manufacturers: SGMW wins January

January saw SGMW win the monthly Manufacturers title, thanks to some 39.000 units, mostly thanks to the resounding success of the Wuling Mini EV. 

Tesla was pushed to the Second Spot, but overall it was a good month, with tripling sales YoY, and the margin to the #1 is not very significant for now (5.833 units), and if February might not see it return to the leadership, the #1 spot should become theirs by March,  but the most striking aspect of last month Manufacturers table is return to form from the Chinese makers, that have 3 brands among the Top 5, besides the aforementioned SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture, we also have BYD in 4th and SAIC in 5th.

BMW managed to start the year in 3rd, thanks to several good results across its (long) lineup, while its arch rival Mercedes was #6, some 6.000 units behind, with the three pointed star brand starting the year as the second best selling Legacy brand, just ahead of Volkswagen(!), but expect this last one to jump in the table by March. 

Coming down in the table, a mention to the Chinese Startups, with 3 of them already in the Top 20, with NIO leading the pack, in #14, ahead of Renault(!), thanks to a record 7.225 units, with Xpeng in #17 and Li Xiang in #19, so it seems they have surpassed their infancy survival tests, and are now ready to scale up production (and portfolio).

The tumble of the month went for Hyundai, that dropped from #11 last year, to #20, with only 4.623 deliveries. That Ioniq 5 is now needed more than ever...

With February said to be a slower sales month in China, expect a couple of Legacy Brands to rebound in the Top 20 next month.

Finally, if we look at Shanghai Auto as an OEM (SAIC+SGMW), the Chinese maker is in a commanding position, with a commanding 17% share, 7% above Tesla (10%) and 8% above the VW Group (9%), so these last two will have their work cut out for them in the next few months, if they want to remove SAIC from the top spot.


  1. Fifth Tesla shipment of the year to Europe arrived today!

    1. Last year we had seven Tesla shipment in Q1 coming to Europe. This year, we are in to have, at least, nine Tesla shipment in Q1 coming to Europe, two of them coming from Shanghai.

    2. Looks like a third one slipped under the radar...

  2. @Jose Pontes: Per this website sales
    China sold 172.652, Europe sold 112.593. Thats a total of 285.245.

    If global sales is 321031, then the rest of world is 35.786.

    Per NADA stats, USA sold 1.385.833 out of which 2,1% are BEV which amounts to 29102 and 0,8% are PHEV which amounts to 11086 vehicles. Thats a total of 40189 PEVs. Adding it to China+Europe takes it past 325.000 vehicles.

    Adding Korea, Japan, Canada, Australia could add few 1.000s.
    Can you please check the numbers.

    1. The NADA guess is most likely wrong... It would require Tesla to have delivered several thousand units more than should be expected for a first month of the quarter. (Or other makers -- which is even less likely.)

  3. 5% share in 1st month is amazing. If this trend continues and if 100 million vehicles are sold this year, then PEVs could cross the 5 million mark.

    Seems global all vehicle sales are at 77 million mark which is much below the normal 90 million + mark. Hopefully when the vaccination accelerates and the virus is controlled, overall market may recover and 5% on the recovered amount will be higher.

    Surprisingly PHEVs have put a strong showing this year.

    Outlander outside top-20 is acceptable, what about ID3 / ID4. Hopefully next month, both will enter top-20 adding some strength to BEV side.

    1. PHEVs will be a major force in Europe this year, so they could rebound in share.

  4. Did you maybe confuse the X3 PHEV with the X1 or the iX3? Because BMW doesn't offer an X3 PHEV in China.

    1. Well spotted. Will change that in the February edition.

  5. Out of 21589 Model 3 sales, 13843 are in China.
    Out of 9597 Model Y sales, 1641 are in China

    That leaves 15702 Model 3/Y sales outside China.
    Add the 1877 Model S/X. That 17579 Tesla sales outside China.
    Seems like a very low sales. Then how many did they sell in USA.

    Did 29.000 BEVs sell in USA really? In that case, other BEVs sold very well.

    Still its a near 3 fold increase considering that Tesla sold only 12779 vehicles in 2020-01.

    Also Tesla cumulative sales crossed 1,4 million.

  6. 2020 takes top-4 out of top-12. 2021 enters in top-5 months right away.
    In top-12; 2020 takes 7; 2019 takes 2; 2018 takes 2 and 2021 takes 1.

    Top-3 months are
    2020-12: 571.475
    2020-11: 414.368
    2020-09: 345.519

    Next 9 months are
    2020-10: 341.531
    2021-01: 321.031
    2018-12: 286.367
    2019-12: 279.214
    2019-06: 264.591
    2020-07: 247.575
    2020-08: 240.981
    2018-11: 237.553
    2020-06: 229.894

    Still 2 months of 2019 & 2018 are in list. I hope 4 more months of 300K + sales will eliminate the older years leaving the list completely for 2021 & 2020.

  7. By Model, Make and Group, its the chinese automakers who are #1.

    #1, #4 - #9 are chinese vehicles.
    Another good thing is 3 minicars make it to top-10. For the 1st time, a minicar is leading in YTD PEV sales.

    Both Nissan & Mitsubishi are out of top-20 by make. Outlander model is out of top-20.

    Kodaks ex-chief said that digital cameras will remain expensive for ever and pushed the company to history. Kodak moment has come.

    1. ...last time I checked, Eastman Kodak was still in business. Not something that many can flaunt about, more so if it for more than 125 years.

  8. As long as the HongGuang relies on credit sales to enable its extremely compelling price, it's still very much a compliance play... Just a very successful one :-)

    I wonder when the government will decide to change the rules...

    1. While it started as a compliance play, if demand continues to be this strong, then by my calculations, the break even point shouldn't be that much far away, and if they decide to export it, then i believe they will make a profit on it, due to the added volumes.

      Now, will they do it? Maybe in a few months (H2 2021?), if they do, then it's because they have reached the break even point AND they want to make a profit out of it, thus leaving the compliance status that this tiny vehicle had in the start of its career.

    2. How are you calculating this?...

    3. I saw a couple of months ago a report on the production cost of the Wuling Mini EV, and based on that, i am estimating the ROI and lowering production costs they might have, considering that volumes are about double of what they expected in the beggining.

    4. Well, doubling volumes certainly helps with unit costs: but we are talking maybe 10% there -- surely not the >30% (I guess) of the price that is being covered by ZEV credits...

  9. Hello. May I refer to your contents in our media? Could you let us know if there are any conditions. Thank you.

    Our media

    1. Yes, you can. Just please send me a link ( once the content is published and in the content, refer the source (EV Volumes via EV Sales), with link to both sites.

    2. Understood. We appreciate your kind suggestion!

  10. Your post was picked up by the Chinese-language media:
    Congrats!! The title is 1月全球电动车销量榜:国产神车击败特斯拉Model 3 中国电动车刷足存在感 "List of the January global sales: a domestic god defeats the Tesla model 3..."

  11. Sixth Tesla shipment of the year to Europe arrives today!

  12. You should do another article about Colombia. Thanks to the E-buses plug-in market share got nearly to 1% in 2020 (0.7% BEV) and it's now hovering around the 1.5% mark (1.4% January,1.6% February). I'm not certain but this is likely the furthest ahead market in Latin America.
    Plus, 30 Changan EV vehicles were sold in february AND I HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO FIND WHAT MODEL THEY WERE. You always seem to find that information :D

    1. I still don't have the February data, but once i do, i will post something on EVS.